yeah we started the week where we left off last weekā¦risk off. I shorted GbpJpy actually, and Dax, ignoring gold unfortunately. This morning Gold is setting up a 1H hook after a shallow asian sessionā¦the feeling today is that the markets are a little more uncertain than yesterday - and thatās logical given the BoJ is verbally āactiveā, watching pricesā¦so not too many punters want to be heavily shorting the Jpy pairs after they have already covered 100% of their weekly ranges more or less.
Euro and other USD pairs stilla little scrappy tbh.
Iām still a little confused on GOldā¦is it driven more by expected inflation or risk on/off? I still feel a little out of sync with Gold and it has in fact shaken me out of positions on a number of occasions.
Re: Krantzā stuffā¦as a retail trader - despite using this trend/momo model with some success - I often wonder what the proās are doing, and whether it really is possible to ignore all else and pursue 1 model.
A variety of drivers really.
Central Banks hold, buy & sell fair amounts of the metal based on current (& forward) economic outlook. Their activity alone can very much impact & influence the movement in prices when they up the ante.
Crises situations such as weakening regional and/or global economies will encourage investors to increase their exposure. Dollar strength/weakness & speculation also strongly affect prices. Active market participants tend to liquidate dollar positions when it begins falling out of favour & use a proportion of that liquidated wedge to place bets on gold.
Inflationary/deflationary pressures (particularly when the price of oil begins rising/falling) tends to fuel gold prices too.
They rarely pursue just one model or approach trailingstop.
Much of the stuff he, & to a larger extent the original template guys, is involved in these days revolves around high frequency stock/equity algorithm models, automated short-medium range futures & options, currency grid offsets & an increasing amount of currency futures activity.
The activity is always geared towards whatās in vogue, risk profiling & client and/or individual objectives. But the basic approaches theyāve presented here are the closest mirror effect of achieving a high probability positive expectancy outcome for folks operating on very limited budgets & market accessibility options.
As with most things business related, the more money at your disposal the larger degree of choice available
Thanks for adding some colour to the Gold scenario. I did take the pullback long today, and closed it not too long agoā¦everything else made a killing today (I did not expect such a violent reversal in risk FX) and so the fact that Gold couldnāt rally as hard as Euro had me on the defensive.
I also took dax short again today.
So I guess the real question that keeps popping up - and is most likely related to the years of struggling us retail traders go through before learning how to play the game - is this: how to you guys continue to be āon the ballā and elaborate new systems, adapt old ones and/or erase things that arenāt working before itās too late?
Sure, the method you have shown here has worked for 40 years or so (someone previously said that I think?) and is still providing more than enough fun. Iām not trying to undermine the success Iām enjoying with this method. Iām more interested in the process of how you go about creating new methods and revisiting old onesā¦
Run them until they either stop for breath or collapse from exhaustion.
Step aside.
Re-evaluate.
Wait for the next set up & kick it on again.
Experience plays a huge part.
As a group, each individual will bring unique skills to the party & know their markets inside out, how they operate, why they operate, when the optimum times are to apply the models at their disposal & more importantly, when to remain flat.
To be honest, a good percentage of their models & approaches develop from core structural elements which have proven to work efficiently & effectively under similar market conditions. Theyāll add & tweak specific elements which they feel will suit the particular objectives, test & apply them & put them to work.
The short range models are geared towards very specific volatility market behaviors & primed to kick in whenever those conditions are setting up to reflect optimum probability returns.
But like anything else in this business, itās a results & numbers game.
You just got to ensure at the end of the accounting quarter the positive numbers outweigh the negative ones.
She looks ultra smart though leafing thru that intellectual broadsheet, red shooze or not!!
as long as sheās sat as far away from the gruesome twosome (andre & jimmy) her street cred will remain intact!
Those 2 offerings look like the kind of stuff our old buddy Mr Wogan (& lately Graham Norton) would have mightily slaughtered at the eurovision pantomime show.
What nationality are you trailingstop?
You certainly donāt appear to be struggling with the identification process.
Do you not ever roll any of these aggressive movers over at all?
Good momentum shifts & potential continuation candidates have been identified recently in dax, gold, oil & yen offering little or no cycle/trend violations intraday-week.
Thatās where the true value & benefit of this type of set up is, particularly those positions adhering to clear, structured cycle moves.
Data from brokerage statistics of those operating similar strategies suggests even pushing one or two over the course of a month can have a marked effect on your bottom line.
Oh man, you have no idea how much chaos & piss take ammunition youāve bestowed upon us with that video!! & although we would dearly love to milk it further we actually have to face them at some point & their other halves are bigger, fitter & meaner than us!
But it appears we have a green light for porn now billy boy!!!
The mind boggles with potential piss take video opportunities, which is very bad news for the template kids!!
LOL, yeah that was indeed a classic faux pas of gigantic proportions!
Should be able to generate sufficient mileage from that to last virtually the entire year
There really is a god!!
See Gold, oil, yen, indices rocking on steroids
It truly is a wonderful week to be alive watching Dan & soultrain wandering around so happy & contented.
See John looking at all the stops of the short yen punters melting in the heat.
See John smile.
See John enthusiastically checking his bonus ledger.
John chooses an appropriate video for the occasion.
ps: please stick to posting charts only trailingstopā¦your vid choices are bringing the secretaries out in hives
Are you referring to long standing stops Billy, further up around last weekās lows?
Because I canāt imagine there would be many fresh short yen orders leading into this week would there?
Obviously thereās the threat of intervention, or rather big stick waving from the BoJ, but even so surely that wouldnāt have inspired swathes of accounts to go long USD/GBP/EUR & other crossess v/s YEN?
donāt you believe it boyo.
just stop & think for a minute the typical type of punter youāre dealing with at this level of the game, & donāt forget, theyāre your competitor!!
money, greed & ignorance make for a heady c*cktail.
also bad habits in a lot of folks are very difficult to break no matter how many times theyāre pointed out or highlighted.
he was referencing this weekās liquidation stops @
164Ā½ in pound/yen
113Ā¾ in dollar/yen
128Ā¾ & 128 Ā¼ in euro/yen etc etc across the other yen denominated pairings
small clutches had been reset around the same area from those going long last week so that merely hastened the liquidation exercise.
what we experience is normally indicative & reflective of the majority of punters across the retail spectrum as they tend to behave like sheep, following the same type of analysis regime, bet management structures & objectives.
Which begs the question why itās packaged, presented & delivered to new entrants & interested parties at this level so aggressively by all & sundry, particularly information sites, supposed coaches & legions of forum members as some sort of minimum default requirement prior to getting started.
Who actually benefits from all the intensive & prolonged periods of technical analysis study if, as you say, the end results donāt positively reflect the time/effort ratio!
maybe Iāll latch onto this comment of yours to ask for some ideas on position sizing/money management?
Usually I simply do the background work and wait for a trigger. Then put a stop below the dayās low (if long) and sit on it. Like the Euro todayā¦I try to give it time to go about itās business. But sometimes at key levels, price stumbles and retracesā¦and the marjority of the time we donāt see days/weeks like today/this week. Most of the time price will make one step forward and 2 steps backā¦before going 3 steps forwardā¦
Itās been quite frustrating (for me anyhow given the kind of potential this model has) to sit through a 2-3 R trade that then becomes a scratchā¦hoping that it would become a runner.
Then again you are correct in the sense that itās the sitting that makes the big bucksā¦because the market needs time to develop big moves and that implies rolling over bets (possibly with positive carry!).
So the only thing Iāve thought of is dividing my bet into 2 pieces: with the same entry, manage one trade intraday and manage the other as a rollover and see what happens. The thing isā¦if I maintain the same bet size as before, and split it in 2, it feels a lot like scaling outā¦which hasnāt proven to be quite effective in the pastā¦I get a full 1R stop when things go well and Iām getting a fraction on a scale outā¦so effectively Iād have to trade 2 positions at onceā¦so Iām not sure (and donāt really have the experience or creativity maybe?) how to confront this issueā¦
Any suggestions will be much appreciated! Iāll actually stop posting videos in exchange for a hand here
It doesnāt take a genius to work out the broker shops are primary beneficiaries of all that unnecessary complex nonsense. And as a secondary pitch who are the primary advertisers & supporters of technical analysis instruction within the retail space along with fee based coaching gurus?!
Iāll take intuitive skills & a logical mind over mass model technical analysis skills any day of the week. The ability to work off a minimalist template using your eyes & brain as your guide is something that freaks out most folk but in our experience it trumps the usual TA nonsense nearly every time, particularly when operating a manual approach at this end of the retail scale.
But donāt take our word for it just look & ask around for evidence that all this fantastic in-depth study, knowledge & application is worth more than the paper itās written on!
Virtually every business day of every year the results clearly demonstrate how negatively mass model technical analysis reflects in the track records of the average punter.
But then to be fair to the results, if there was a filtering process in place prior to participating, the lack of aptitude & psychological nous/maturity would eliminate the vast majority before they ever filled in a broker application.
You donāt need to peruse forums for very long to quickly discover that at this level the game tends to attract a certain personality trait in which the negatively skewed results clearly highlight those commonly repetitive frailties & incompatibilities.
Obviously there are exceptions, but theyāre few in numbers & generally ones who are sharp, focused, not prone to distraction & generally sidestep all the usual hot air merchants, drama queens & nonces.
And you wonder why the brokers are happy to pack out the advertising hoardings & flash their pop up offerings at every conceivable opportunity.
Itās a license to print money.
Itās obviously frustrating & not always productive to take that route if youāre working with a tight or restricted wedge, but laine (& others who have advocated that option) wasnāt inferring you view every entry as a rollover candidate
But recently there have been aggressive, extended moves with shallow consolidations that would perhaps have warranted a closer inspection & consideration of that option?
One tip might be to look more closely at opportunities that offer up similar behaviour traits in future so that youāre only participating when the momentum shift is aggressive & smooth.
Whenever you place a bet into a move that extends up to or beyond itās normal daily range & pulls back in [B][U]shallow supportive activity[/U][/B], look to give it a loose rein & see what transpires.
As with the initial identification & filtering process, any potential continuations or rollovers need to stack up & be judged on their own merit. So filtering them accordingly based on something like iāve described might be worth future consideration.
