The yanks are an excitable bunch.
They love all that political fistycuffs razzamatazz & anyway, it aint over till the fat bird begins clearing her throat!
You’ll be flashing your I.D to the bouncers eager to quaff all the free champers when it flows again no doubt??!!
Go Donny Donny………
See my beautiful silky feathers
Stroke them if you like
I promise I won’t hiss, bite off your hand at the wrist or peck both your eyes out.
Come on in boys & girls, the waters lovely & warm!
T’would be rude not to share a flute or two of shampoo & a cucumber sarnie or three with you all in the event of old Trumpy obtaining the keys to the big white door.
Should be enough to set you boys up with your own fund huh?
See if I can’t blow the dust off my gold edged CV & sneak a cushty analyst spot in a nice comfy leather seat by the window!
I’m pretty low maintenance these days - only require 2 screens.
1 for sky sports & t’other for the racy u tube channels & office spycam!!
The only window you’ll be seeing is the one that’ll require cleaning!
We feel this might be more up your street.
Ensure you try avoid a chilly day for interview though coz Suzie, Gayle & Bonnie will on the panel & they set the bar high re; standards & criteria.
If you work out ok we’ll take you with us if not you can stay put.
I didn’t pay much attention to this intriguing aspect of the approach when it was referred to a few times earlier in the thread, but have delved into it more enthusiastically recently & it now forms an integral part of my step process each weekend & morning.
I noticed the usd/chf positioning changed quite noticeably too during monday morning on my broker feed relay (a 31% spike into shorts as it approached the previous weekly highs at .9840) so I cross checked it & the general consensus was an average positioning of +80% short holding.
I didn’t take it because I’m already in something else, but that really was a no-brainer long on tuesday morning off the shallow overnight close & typical of this approaches set-up. And by no means was that the only glaringly obvious skewed example this week either.
The other obvious ones during the past few weeks being oil & gold.
There’s not much else out there highlighting extreme reads at the mo for obvious reasons, but 2 other standout candidates within the euro basket fit your bill.
eur/usd longs began increasing steadily last week on the approach to 1.12 & that trend continued all through Tuesday (registering +81% long bias) even though it’s printed successive lower highs & lower lows for the past 3 weeks.
The loss of 1.11 yesterday, which was in the region of last week’s lows, didn’t deter the long bets from creeping up either, as on Monday night those longs had extended out to a +87% bias.
eur/aud also mirrored similar themes, but is only today challenging last week’s lows. Not saying it hasn’t been a valid session short, but if you compare the 2 into the beginning of this week’s action it’s not difficult to filter the higher probability opportunity.
That’s the key to absorbing & integrating that type of information.
I’m sure these guys have covered the salient points, but using those increasingly extreme readings to assist in filtering the higher probability current directional flows will yield superior results, particularly when price is keying off your round numbers, session highs & lows & valid cyclical pullback levels.
Our internal data (which undoubtedly is a reflection of generic bias) shows a levelling of fresh EURUSD longs during Wednesday but a very sharp increase all through yesterday off 1.10 as the long-and-wrong bottom pickers tick the bias back up beyond 80%.
Once again on this latest leg down they’re experiencing intense pain as they get stopped out by folks like you guys picking them off.
It’s a similar story on your USDCHF example this morning.
As they did at .9700 & .9800 over the past 2 or 3 weeks, those short-and-caught once again piled into shorts yesterday at .9900 & are now jumping ship paying more unnecessary costs to the brokers whilst those correctly riding the flow are happily sat watching it all play out.
Squeaky bum time fella’s!
Trebles are back in play then.
Certainly looked a lost cause a week ago, but the sprint is on into the home straight.
Soooo, I’ll pre-book a dozen vip tickets if you please (just in case).
The ones with the ultra-attractive waitress service, unlimited caviar finger refills & up market goodie bags for the lassies.
you’re seriously informing us you actually know 11 more people?? :o
[I]“we need new dreams tonight”[/I]
You guys really nailed it…Trump/Brexit bets laid down back in Jan and they’ve both come true.
How was it possible to anticipate such improbable results so far ahead of time?
Just trying to learn so next time I’ll be able to make such bold calls with some degree of robustness…
Seem like all of you bet on the correct side again. Do you guys have a crystal ball that can tell the future? Please share with me. :35:
nice one fella’s!
absolutely loving the gritted teeth platitudes emanating out of the frustrated & incredibly disappointed european union!
i’d love to be a fly on the wall during the juncker, merkel & hollande conference call lol
We get paid obscene amounts of money to do what we do & make plays like this.
Our job is to read people, moods, trends & sentiment & constantly compute odds that stack in our favor more often than not.
These types of scenarios only come along once in a blue moon but the singles/doubles/trebles combination that the trump nomination/brexit/election victory ticket presented was just too good to pass up because it offered extreme & significantly favorable odds.
As we mentioned after Donald swung the nomination & Brexit won the day, folks (including the so called experts) simply failed to correctly read the over-riding sentiment & they dropped the ball massively again on the lead up to today.
It’s the exact same principle we endorse when sniffing out the opportunities presented within the contents of this thread, same deal as with the technical template guys.
How many times do we trumpet the incorrect sentiment & bias standings of the majority of gamblers punting these financial bets? You know where to look for them & you should know how to marry them up with your current technical charts & graphs.
The majority are virtually always sat the wrong side of the current flows, they can’t read the sentiment correctly & they continually get slaughtered by us (bookies & brokers) & by the savvy minority.
It manifests itself in all types of betting scenarios & situations, which is why the vast majority fail, there are few very successful participants & you rarely see a poor bookie/broker!
It’s not going too well for those corrupt, arrogant european whingers this year is it.
Their very worst nightmares playing out left & right!
Man, this year just keeps getting better.
Amazingly Donny pulled 42% of the female vote despite all the allegation furore & mugged a very respectable 30% of the Hispanic vote. Not bad for someone who is supposedly (according to the Clinton camp) divisive & inflammatory!
[I]Lock her up
Lock her up[/I]
Fortunately I had caught onto part of this post-brexit, and was not surprized by a Trump win since a few friends in the US were speaking along the same lines as the guys in the UK before the Brexit.
Once again, the better salesman (Trump) won.
However, in the markets at least we have retail data & trends to watch. Even for some data prints, it does become simpler as, for example, I use proxies like BRC & PPI as inputs before UK cpi, to try and handicap the potential surprize or miss.
But when things are less clear? Like the RBNZ tonight…theere has been just as much improvement as deterioration in the economy since the last meeting…so effectively the RBNZ doesn’t have as much ammo as it would possibly like, in order to meet consensus and cut rates. How do you read the sentiment on things like this? Sure the trend has been recently favouring Kiwi (vs Cad in particular) and retail folk remain short Kiwi
Screenshot - d1f8c86c8ad055962bdfbccbc8a70d08 - Gyazo …but is there something else that enhances odds when targeting event risk?
Moreover, you guys were already betting in the right direction way ahead of the actual events. Is it just a case of constantly being in touch with the right people and being inserted into the flow of things?
I apologize for pushing here…it just seems totally astounding to me that nearly 1 year ahead it is possible to calculate odds on these things. :o
You don’t have or need to scratch your head & try read it.
Just remember what we’ve posted multiple times on here regarding scenarios where the playing field is unclear or contradictory & put it/them on the back burner whilst you focus on opportunities offering more clarity.
You can always revisit a regional currency or specific pairing & promote it back onto your your A list when/if the momentum behavior clicks back into gear.
It’s actually the exact opposite.
We’ve been playing this game long enough to know to avoid & ignore as many people as possible when it comes to establishing & cementing views & opinions, especially the so called analysts & experts.
It’s like Dan says, we tune into the important aspects of what makes money.
Our experience tells us that a good grasp human psychology, mood & sentiment will always make you a hell of a lot more money in this game than slaving over technical & fundamental analysis & the results from those personally known to us are testament to that observation.
Most of us have worked together or crossed paths more than a few times at different firms during various junctures & we trust each other’s views & opinions implicitly.
No need to collate, collect or log into anyone else’s radar.
Most of them are usually wrong anyway.
Thank you for this - I had a “duh” moment when I read it. Of course, when things are a coin flip it’s not a quality bet.
Ok last question and then I’ll stick my head in the sand again. Apart from the retail sentiment indicator readily available to me/other folks via brokers, it there any other “sentiment tool” you would suggest keeping tabs on?
Thank you once again and tip of the hat for an extremely well played hand this year.
The more you read/hear it, the more it’ll sink in.
Unlike a professional outfit who are constantly chasing value/profit, you’re in the enviable position of having the luxury of picking & choosing your preferred gambles. If nothing particularly floats your boat today, tomorrow or this week then you don’t have to lay your money down on anything.
I really wouldn’t lose any sleep over it if I were you because there are well paid professional analysts/market watchers out there who struggle badly with this stuff.
Some of them are lucky if they get 30 or 40% of the outcomes & the resulting reactions correct.
Nothing in addition to what’s already been presented.
You have more than enough to keep you facing the right way & correctly exposed to the high profile short-med term momentum driven candidates.
Keep reminding yourself that less = more.
It’s not the quantity of back up info that gets the job done, but the quality you employ.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/woman-lost-nearly-half-million-104140988.html
A sample of just some of the many you undoubtedly took the other side of.
I read earlier today of wins into the £1 & 2million amounts being paid out, & that was only on singles US election bets.
The mind boggles to comprehend the pay out that a trump win paired up with doubles & trebles (involving the massive nomination & Brexit odds) would return.
It’s like the old saying though isn’t it – fortune favours the brave!
It also favors the smart & the sharp & if you’ve been utilizing both those attributes over the past 7-10 business sessions observing the key criteria influencing your decision making, you’d have been aware that yet again the majority of retail punters have been facing the wrong way on a host of instruments.
Stats since week ending 11/11 have indicated punters loading into long eur/usd (currently 81%) off 1.09, heavier at 1.08 & 07 when clearly the correct bias & your set ups have been hooking short.
They’ve been mirrored short (currently 79% & change) usd/jpy off 106, increasing noticeably at 108 & 09 when your triggers have all been glaringly long on solid cyclical pullback plays.
I’m sure most of you will be aware aud/cad, aud/usd & eur/cad have been the stand out candidates the past week & a half with punters heavily under water to the long side at 93, 92 & 90% respectively.
Mugs were backing aud/cad long off 1.0000 late last week like it was going out of fashion, so those of you who continued to ride that one short through intraday lows as per the set up, were laughing.
As one or two of these heavily stacked candidates continue to breach prior week & quarter highs/lows they’ll open up solid pullback/continuation opportunities. Just keep an eye on the big options levels (on the majors) for consolidation behavior & don’t be shy on backing your set ups into years end. Losing punters will generally push for a happy ending & throw even more caution to the wind.