Nice uncluttered prep.
Shouldn’t imagine you’ll encounter too much trouble shuffling likely candidates using that routine.
Good advice.
To perhaps allay any confusion, your brackets maybe ought to have included the whole comment relating to the day’s closing price?..as in; [I]I’m concentrating more on the [U]prior week[/U] (& current day closing) [U]high-low[/U] levels, as they’re the primary focus.[/I]
I’m assuming you were referencing the current day [B]closing[/B] remark to highlight the fact you’re ignoring spikes or probing tests into & back from prior day and/or week highs & lows, which of course can & do hide a varied array of differing stop order objectives, some of which are merely testing the resolve & intent of opposing camps.
There aren’t many flies on you folks!
And yes, I can see how it might have thrown a spanner in some people’s works.
As you correctly surmised, I was of course meaning I’m more concerned with how prices close off the day’s highs & lows rather than reacting prematurely to a possible knee-jerk probe through a prior daily or weekly session high or low.
I’ve seen countless occasions where that very action on gold has occurred only for the dominant trend to reassert itself & carry on regardless, which kind of reinforces the importance & relevance of these session levels.
If however the day closed in a precarious position that could & would put a whole different slant on proceedings.
The example just goes to illustrate why they’ve repeatedly reinforced & encouraged, whenever possible, to try establish a higher value entry by stepping in ahead of significant levels such as prior session highs/lows, big figures & round numbers & focusing in on the activity as prices re-visit & probe these areas.
These probing moves get strongly rejected many times right across the board & if they don’t, which is undoubtedly the dual result of weakening participation & a build-up of contrary stop orders, then the dominant theme merely re-establishes itself having knocked out weak hands.
Annoyingly, I fell victim to it recently on eur/aud when it re-visited & probed the prior weekly highs up at the 4270’s. Not the end of the world obviously, because the momentum & cycle wasn’t really violated, but frustrating nonetheless, especially the amount of times we’ve been reminded of it.
Still, we live & learn & the more we see something play out as presented, the more observant we hopefully become next time around.
Haha, I did/do yeah, but that’s part of the normal entry set up.
To be honest mate I don’t observe or record it on moves into profit projections or stop outs either because one is a reason to see the deal to it’s natural conclusion or projection & other is a reason not to be seated any longer until the landscape justifies it again.
I’m certainly aware than whenever I close a deal out either at a range extreme or a range overshoot for instance, the weightings are already skewed sufficiently to almost predict a move in the other direction lol.
But I assume you record the scratch data weightings?
Are you looking for specific anomalies or patterns?
I’m curious to see if there are signs of repetitive behavioural patterns on & around those areas of activity. Started it last year & don’t yet have enough data to begin form spotting the pattern outcomes yet, but there’s definitely a theme which will probably morph into a decent enough footprint confirmation to justify the effort. If so I’ll tweak the risk profiles on the rollover opportunities whenever that outcome pops up.
Nothing too surprising really, & it (so far) confirms what they’ve said & continue to say regards the behavioural footprint habits of crowd participation.
We’ll see.
Hi, yesterday I tried to short EUR/JPY but I’ve been punished.
I played it as a breakout around about 118.85 area. I’m new to this approach, so my question is: should I had waited the price going under this wk opening price at least before shorting? I assess the trend on 4H TF and it was still going down without any violation of prior day’s High. Thank you in advance
no, not especially.
i wouldn’t have waited had i been tracking that pair around that area.
it simply didn’t work out & you exited via your stop loss.
do you mean you played it as pullback rather than a b/o mc? because it rolled over into monday’s close off friday’s high & was continuing to ease into yesterday’s european open when i assume you entered.
or is your b/o comment referring to yesterday’s tokyo low by any chance?
Hi Corpellan, I entered at about 13 GMT when I saw the price going down through the short term support area (gray rectangle): on 15m seems like a breakout setup. I also considered the stoch hook at about noon but that support had been rejected many times so I preferred waiting a break.
aaah right i see where you’re coming from now.
i can’t really comment on that tactic then mc because i don’t play support or resistance levels in the way you’ve described. the only key levels i observe are prior session (day/week/month/quarter etc) highs & lows.
we also probably differ on our definitions of a breakout too.
mine would typically describe that which cad/jpy experienced yesterday through the current years lows or gold in january through 1220 & again recently through 1245.
those are the characteristic type of breakouts i look to identify & focus on, but if you’re experiencing success identifying & tracking your preferred technical breakout set ups in the way you’ve described, then keep batting away!
those setting long bounce orders y’day had their stops captured when it fell through the years lows y’day & the breakout players have had theirs captured this morning
so the only ones to escape the double clubbing were the intraday shorters who primed their entries ahead of the b/o & cashed out down at the average day’s range extreme into the european close.
Exactly, & as you’ve noticed from the evidence presented, it’s the same story virtually every time significant levels come into focus. But I doubt it’s a surprise to you guys, or at least by now it shouldn’t be.
You’re more than well aware by now how these areas contain large collections of stop orders, & yesterday that area was absorbing them from the bounce brigade hiding their long defensive exit stops looking for another reversal back up off circa 85, & sell stop orders from the blind breakout crew below 84.90
Whenever a level such as that pops, price can accelerate aggressively which is when you need to be tuned into your daily & weekly average range barriers to gauge the momentum flow & prepare for your next decision.
oh don’t worry i intend to.
my fxstats activity data tells me what i’m doing is right so i have no intention of becoming distracted or nudged off track.
when i first began adopting the background/foreground chart set up routine i kept waiting for the roof to cave in & inform me i wasn’t plotting enough pre-trade groundwork, especially considering the advice dispensed throughout the forum relating to tuition time & longevity of learning etc, but the selection criteria kept producing quality opportunities & the resulting returns are confirming the routine is adequate enough to keep things ticking along nicely.
if it aint broke it doesn’t need fixing!
well, the proof of the pudding is in the eating isn’t it & i’ve dipped in & out of the content here several times now & each time certain statements & comments hit home harder than they did the first couple times i read them, but i keep dialling back to soultrain & billy’s posts on page 59 following my introductory contribution.
soultrain was right & it’s only now, 12 months down the line that i’m beginning to realise & appreciate the wisdom in the top half of that post.
but then i guess that kind of advice only comes with the correct level of experience & of course the recipient has to buy into & trust the advice being dispensed as well as trust their own hunches & judgement.
so far i’m not in the least bit unhappy about backing that hunch
For example, back at the end of Feb (27th/28th) I was in an AudNzd long, which I had entered the week before as it broke through 1.0700. I had kept my initial stop at 1.0625 risking the usual 0.5% of my equity which gave me my position size. I scaled out of the position as it fell back throough 1.0700 a couple of days later which happened to also be the low of the 22nd so it made sense. I held the rest because we were still holding above the week’s lows…then we got a dip on the 28th which took me out, right before reversing higher.
So if I had waited for the close of the day, sure it would have been great. But intratrade, the market pushed below prior day & prior week’s lows. So it seemed like a logical place to be stopped out?
More in general: how do you balance the “spike risk” with your bet size? To make things clearer: we don’t know what’s going to happen but what if the market spikes way below your initial stop loss level? Do you not exit? Do you actually hold on until the close? But the market may very well close beyond your initial stop, hence taking a larger piece of your equity with it, than initially planned. For example, AudNzd might very well have continued lower on the 27th…costing me more than the inital amount I was betting.
But the same goes for any position we trail yes? For example EurCad. I’ve been tracking this for the past couple of weeks (long of course). After yesterday’s rejection of the highs and stronger momentum to the downside, I was quite cautious today as we were consolidating near yesterday’s lows during the asian session and when Europe opened, we pushed lower. So I’m out of the trade for logical reasons, because for all I know we could have travelled much further down. Yet now we’re back above.
The only “solution” that comes to mind with this dilemma is what some CTAs use, I believe: the initial % allocation is a function of the Daily ATR…so a 1ATR move = X% of equity. In this way, the levels can be used to judge the market’s behaviour without fretting about a rogue spike eating up more equity than was planned. But the trade-off seems to be lower profitability for the bet?
Love to hear your thoughts on this…there’s very little (if any) good material to be read on this. I’ve found bits & pieces in TradersUnplugged but this really isn’t clear to me yet.
forexspot99, I will watch for the other comments on your scenario, but will also offer my 2 cents. In the spirit of k.i.s.s. - would this just be one of those unforeseen events, and just determine that the action is unsuitable to trade at the moment?
Wait for a more clear movement?
I wouldn’t call it an unforseen event at all. We have clear boundaries with which to judge the market’s intent and I must say that there’s no guesswork whatsoever about whether the market is performing well or not.
My question was purely about the trade-off between trailing the actual stop below a prior day/week high/low or actually keeping it a ways away and acting on the close. For all we know, the market could violate the prior day/week high/low and keep pressing into the close. So I’m just wondering what wyntac and the others think about this and how they juggle this trade-off.
There is no conundrum forexspot, neither is there a trade-off between anything.
There are a clear set of specific parameters laid down for identifying & filtering high probability candidates.
You also have parameters & guidelines from which to observe, manage & close out your bets & gambles.
The guys have impressed on a very regular basis that each individual is free to use & utilize those parameters & guidelines to fit their own styles, risk appetites, financial profiles, objectives & experience levels.
It’s not important what wyntac or any of the other regular contributors/participants would do in those particular circumstances, only what [B]you’re[/B] looking to do based on the information you have to work with at the time.
You’re all individuals & you’ll all make different decisions. Some will be right at the time & some won’t be. That’s life.
You’ll adopt & practice varying degrees of risk, will have very different funding allocations available for highly speculative participation, possess very differing levels of experience & will definitely express views & opinions which will conflict. That’s what makes a market.
If [B]you[/B] don’t like or feel comfortable about how something is playing out after you’ve entered, or you’re not happy with how a currency or pair is reacting to specific criteria then fold & turn your attention elsewhere.
You can’t follow someone else’s template. Neither can you mirror the decision making of another player because there are far too many variables at play.
Play your own game based on the information & material available to you at the time.
It did yeah.
So there’s your decision made for you with no conflict or second guessing.
Is that your planned action whenever that scenario materializes?
If so, then the decision is already made for you with no conflict or second guessing.
True, but if you’ve already got a firm exit plan in place that scenario will be of no concern to you.
That was your action plan for that eventuality which you followed based on your decision. What occurs or occurred after that decision is of no concern to you.
Yeah, it’s a pain in the f*ckin arse isn’t it, but get used to it coz it happens a lot
Thing is though you can always leg back in if it sets up according to your entry profile, but for now you’re out & flat so what it does after that decision is of no concern to you.
I order to ascertain that you’re going to need to do what you’ve been adivised when you’ve raised similar concerns & questions, which is to record the data & discover whether or not that’s a viable alternative.
There’s no magic pill mate & no perfect answer to your questions.
This is a son of a b*tch endeavour that will frustrate the crap out of you virtually every week of every month.
You are aware aren’t you that most institutional/cta types are (also) long-term net losers. It would make your eyes bleed if you could see the carnage they cause on a regular basis. I wouldn’t trust most of that mob with my kids pocket money let alone the vast amounts of punters dough they casually throw around like confetti.
As skip say’s & todd alludes to, there’s no magic pill or perfect scenario.
Some days & weeks you’ll keep all your plates spinning efficiently, other days & weeks the stop-start frustration will drive you bonkers.
Just continue to spin your plates each day to the best of your ability based on the logical cycles the market continuously offers & ensure you manage your pot & stakes with a disciplined structure.
Thank you Double 6 & On The Bid for offering your perspective - which is what I was after anyhow.
Speedbump I apologize if you’re annoyed by my questions but I’m seeking understanding and perspective, and since the only examples of successful coin flippers are in this room, I need to use the methods & setups I see here as a basis for asking these questions.
Trade management is (in my humble opinion) the most difficult part of the puzzle. And amongst the various management methods I think TIME stops are the most complex also. And once again there isn’t any quality material out there.
I’m not in the least bit annoyed by your questions forexspot, but the solutions to a lot of them lie at your own feet.
Often you appear to be the architect of your own barriers & obstacles, most of which wouldn’t even be an issue if you had in place a concrete plan & a solid eventuality for each stage of your activity (prep/entry/management/exit).
Revisit the content because there are multiple examples, tips, advices & solid statements relating to that process throughout the thread. It’s exactly the same content that has led sketcher to where he’s currently at & also responsible for the impressive track record that wyntac & stakz are presently proofing.
Don’t overthink or overcomplicate it. I realise sometimes it’s difficult, but focus solely on your own activity, not that of other posters because you simply don’t have a window into their (whole) world.
