Pattern Trading Journal
Greetings to those who found me here.
My new goals:
1. Never Risk 2%
-Risk 1% or lower
2. Multiple Time Frame Analysis
-Focus more time on Daily, and Weekly
3. Entering on 30 min and 1 hour time frame.
-A better entrance can be given on 15min or 5 min
4. Do not focus or trade based on minuscule news.
-Trading news has high volatility.
5. Report key support and resistance levels.
-Levels must be noted to see levels of retracement to see if market respect any levels.
6. Stick to simple harmonic and Wave patterns.
-Do not overcomplicated waves. Keep simplistic as possible.
7. Protect your Profits
-Set stop loss in profit region to protect assets.
Folks, it doesnt matter how many pips you make. It is how much you can keep.
Don't worry about how many pips to make. Question your theory and analysis. Question your ability to make the right call.
Last edited by elephant; 05-20-2013 at 02:07 PM.
I will be posting all various types of harmonic patterns.
Here is the USD/CHF. Initially, I was working on the 4 hour time frame because it gave me a nice pattern formation. By taking a step back, we can see a pennant forming with this months high testing the resistance of the pennant. I didnt initially think that it will break the pennant but it shot back down, giving us a workable pattern. What is confusing for me is the testing of two support lines. One support line was of the pennats and the other was a weekly support line.
As time went one, it seemed to test the potential reversal zones. However, over the weekend, for this pattern to be valid, the pattern must respect the PRZ. It did not in this situation because a very strong bearish bar flew right through it. According to scott carney, this price bar invalidates the pattern -meaning we have to start new with this pair.
After many failed patterns on this pair, this seems to hold the most. This bat formation will varied within next two weeks for conformation. IT has not yet reached point D. There have been numerous talks in the forums about how AUS/USD will drop. Some said it was going to drop earlier this month but I believe it is beginning now. Seems to hold a strong downward trend at the moment. what worries me most about this pair is that I have a huge prize reversal zone. I would expect retracement to occur around 1.36~1.35 because of the aggregation of the two zones. The outlier is the AB=CD in which some ignore.
When it reaches around 1.36 ~1.35, I will wait and see if the pattern do follow a reversal. It should because it would confirm with the weekly support and resistant lines-meaning it would conform with the trend. Let's wait and see.
I see a Non-perfect Mr. Gartley forming. A daily and weekly charts shows a strong upward trend as it briefly touches the SMA. Overall, I think it will test the resistance level established mid September after the pattern has completed. In shorter time frames or larger time frames, the market is reacting within the pennant/triangle. However, with this Non-perfect Mr. Gartley pattern, approaching point D will test the pennants support line. I believe that since we are still in an upward trend it will only touch or casually test the area and shoot back up to continue the trend. If you look at the hourly time frame with your RSI, you can definitely see a hidden divergence happening (higher lows and lower highs) confirming a upward trend.
All potential reversal values within the zone seem to aggregate within the same area which helps make me believe that when price levels hit this area, reversal will continue-confirming the bullish trend.
But as of now, the market just opened being very bullish which scares me that it might make this pattern invalid....again
Originally Posted by elephant
Market opened really strong today.. therefore, invalidating my pattern. However, another forms! Crabby forms!
The pair broke through the pennant and continues the upward trend. I will look between 1.304 and 1.307 for potential reversal moves~ we will see if this sucker will follow any of the pattern rules. Should've confirmed the upward trend when looking at lower time frames with the SMA.
I have a feeling it might be over bought as it tempts to reach another high this month. Most rsi and Stoch show overbought. So, I will watch and see what will happen tomorrow.
AS stated earlier in another thread:
I have speculations of this pair to fall sometime soon? Head and shoulders forming within a pennant that have tested (once) the resistance. Along with my previous pattern alignment, it shows that if it drops it would continue in the downward trend? Or would this "new upward trend" be the new trend?
Originally Posted by Gk1fx
For long term, yes, it would be wise to go long. I was referring for short term. I took a second look on the pair and it shows testing of the resistance two times within this week. Also, note that this pair has reached a 4 month high! I was analyzing the graph again and see that is bouncing between the pennant. I expect that the pair might fall downwards to around 82.10~82.00. However, that is a speculation. If it breaks this level, it will break the pennant and support line which is believe will continue with the down trend. However, it can just as easily touch the support/pennant and shoot upwards (just like it did on 27 Nov)!
So in the end, I am going to be extra careful when shorting/buying this pair.
Working on the EUrJPY at the 30min time frame
Pennant formation on time frames of 1H, 4H, daily. I will be watching for a breakout and then entering. What is noticeable about this pattern formation is the fact that it took less then half the time for the second half to complete. I initally shorted the pair when the pair attempted to touch the highest potential reversal zone. Followed by a down trend, I thought for sure that it would go down and touch 38.2 IPO, bounce, fall and hit 68.1 IPO, bounce, and fall again. However, during this time, it retraced at 23.6..... Which is suppose to be my target profit taking level (safety net). I curious as to whether or not it will test the final PZL.
I will not be fighting the trend on this one. Why? Because by taking a step back, we can see a strong upwards trend. I believe that it will only fall for a certain amount before it continues to rocket up. Unless, it is a forsure the new "downtrend."
Eur/GPB pair on a 4 hour.
My errors on this pair: on nov 30th, I was too hesitant about the completion of this pattern. I initially thought that the pattern would fall after testing the PRZ levels. however, it did not test all levels. As of now it is cruising within the PRZ which makes me curious as to whether or not it is valid. I intend for it to fall as it seems to stand outside of the pennant. Or we can say the angular daily resistant level. By testing this level, it can confirm a new trend as it is approaching the end of the pennant. However, on 10.22, it tested the resistant line and shot down. Would it do the same here? I hope so...
I only say hope so because it would follow the pattern rules. Take a step out again and we can clearly see a strong upward trend. I will trade this pair carefully as I know that after Point D it should drop but not as heavily to go against the trend. If i were to go long on thsi position, i would enter when I know that this pair has fallen to atleast 0.808 or even 0.804- testing both profit taking levels.
Eur/JPY and USD/JPY Short. Continue to watch for profit levels.
USD/JPY hit target profit levels. Chinese Take OUT!
Price only tested the highest potential reversal zone. I Dont think it will test any other levels due to the fact that the market has risen to a higher high this month. I was able to see a perfect gartley on a smaller time frame. I will again... try to trade this pair when it confirms conformation.
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"It is wise to keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final."