27/2/14 i close the usd chf with 0 because i entered it without thinking. the gbp usd atill open . the usdeur retaced back today but in my opinion it just to get ready for bigger move. i will consider enter but for now my indis show it a trend brake position so i will wait, same with aud usd .
open trades :
usd/gbp long 1.6674
new trades :
sell eurjpy 140.03
buy usd cad 1.1139
sell aud usd 0.8927
pip count : 100
i didn’t abandon Forex heheh but i forget to write here as i usually trade by orders and take profit or sl auto . so i avoid of hours in front of the PC also avoid psycho damage :31: , last week a made very nice 357 pips profit from eur jpy usd jpy and gbpusd.
Any way for now i manual back test candle by candle s/r system based on RSI indicator . i use it mainly as show me where the price now to price before on several times and also as s/r zones and not as entry or overprice indi . it give me 2 trades a month on daily base . 1-10-12 till 1-7-13 it gave me 1968 pips so it 200+ pips monthly from eurusd . its very simple and it base more on s/r and consilidation zones and patterns as the rsi just show the general direction and position more to avoid bad entries . i also testing the fibo projection tool as very nice take profit and s/l tools . so if i enter trade i look s/r zones if it fits the fibo i then i use those zones , they usually work.
i also use 13-26 emas for get idea if price to low or high and if it is i wait it go back to those averages then i order my entry
aud usd and usd cad was sl total damage of 180 pips
open trades :
usdchf sell 0.8869 tp 0.8749
usd chf closed 0.8806 sl with 60 pips profit
new trades :
buy eurcad : at 1.5429
sell eurchf :at 1.2156
this is update from the last week all the closed deals like it appear at my broker. i not update here everyday but at least one time a week .
eur chf 30 pips
cad jpy 45 pips
usd jpy 50 pips
gbp jpy 76 pips
usd chf 63 pips
eur cad -40 pips (i could take 50 pips profit but i waited and it dropped )
total of 220 pips it is my weekly goal so i good see what happen next week .
some conclusions for good and bad the good i starting to work by rules strict but simple . the bad is that i don’t have the patience to wait for bigger profits .
what i am going to do is open 2 trades each time 1 with specific TP not big profits and one i let run but it be smaller lot . and from this week i am going to check the trades one time a day on close of NY nothing between . and i will see where it take me .
this week i talked with stock trader with a lot of experience and what he told me is i need to put limits to my self of what i want to achieve how i will do it and what i will not do. after i achieve what i want if i want change it i need to plan all over again and in no way use the existing plan as it was developed for different goals . alot of people fall because they have something that working but they not know the limit they push more and more without new planing and loose everything .
to be continued…
this week happened 2 things one is good one is bad.
the good i managed to open trades ad leave them alone until they close by them self’s .
the bad (which is also good for practice) is that i didn’t had the time to trade on daily base and surely not by the close of daily candle because for this i need to wake up 2 night. so i cheated my self and entered trades not by rules , i lost around 230 pips but for now some trades start look good. still open for weekend .well i learned or trade by rules or no trade at all, because if usually i waited to close many deals i wouldn’t enter.
25/3 NY closed i just checked the graphs no entries for today but tomorrow maybe will be.
any way after last week defeat , which after analyzing happened totally because of me and not the system i using . i restricted even more the rules but it seem that the rate of sl/tp can be around 1-3 i will try it less entries but the one i enter i hope be worth it. any way its Forex need to be prepared for everything. But as i said to my self no bad system but a bad trader mostly what needed is patience timing and money management. and learn to defeat the self ego and lesser false hope . more i trade more i can analyze and make conclusions and fix my self . update tomorow
my feeling is usdeur will rise in the near future also this my feeling about gbpusd because of it candle formation
i scanned the markets for daily moves . so i will get easier work in the night . there currently only 1 possible trades but i will check in 6 hours.
still didn’t get any entry because i work by rules if i used pure price action i beliave i would enter some trades already but because i looking for strong trends i filtering setups . because some pairs already trending and many consolidating this week.
but i used this week to back test . allot of pairs . i think the biggest conclusion is that the most important thing is money trade setup not less then 1:2 better 1:3 alot of patience , and moving the sl to 0 as soon as the profit reach the sl amount . and not to be tempted to exit trade with small profit (not let my ego control me) i am going to train my self on this for the next 3 months.
i really think that the daily setups are perfect for me i open now the graphs 2 times : 1 in evening to see what happened during day and make notes which pairs are potentially setups. and 1 in night concentrate on the marked pairs to see if go or no go .
well eventually i close this week not bad . i had nzd usd for more then 150 pips profit (weekly goal 250 pips ). (gbp/usd eur/gbp still open with total 83 pips gain) totally 150 pips gain this week . no loosing trades (not close not open) this week din’t gave too much opportunities . so i guess i good . i could close the other trades and get more but i left them to next week .
next week i expect to be better at least by what i see with my way of trade. but it forex so no one knows for sure.
something a notes that i use 2 emas as basic entry meaning that enter trade when the price near the emas not too much far away as it by my concept was overprice. but i see i missing some very strong tranding trades . so as from this week i :
i close the other trades with 78 pips profit so totally last week i earned 238 pips which is almost my goal . on Monday i had 4 trades in total 109 pips all related to jpy pairs i closed them all (really not know why maybe because they was all jpy so thay all moved together) still working on the TP but it something that can not be back tasted and need to be realized in live with allot of patience .
this week all my system entries was good but i only earn 198 pips .
i had one guess feeling trade i lost 80 pips but it was during day entry not by rules at all just feeling . i count it as i learning and i learn not guess any more .
week summary 228 pips earn 6 wins 2 loses but i mangae to keep my looses small . need to work on wins if i i didn’t touch trades i could take this week around 400 pips but i have problem to close trades with wining without reacj tp. that’s i start work next week . at least i know my system works pretty well … good luck next week
Well this week strarted well with 111 pips earned but in the middle of it i lost 15 pips. and also entered 2 trade that are still open but loosing in totally 70 pips one of the i could close with nice profit but i decided to wait for my TP point and it felt down. this week was even . but this is forex can not win all times. i considering to start trade on the 4 hr charts in this case i will have more entries and smaller profits which maximise my trade risk of immediate loose but maximize the TP becouse those will be smaller and off course only entry by the daily general direction.
as i hoped the open trades that was loosing closed even "0’ i just wanted close them, this week had holiday in my country i also had some personal things so i traded 2 times only earn 30 pips lost 40 pips so i - 10 pips for the week .next week i back full power . with even some improvements.
a lesson i study this week . NOT USE FIBONACCI AS ENTRY TRIGGER. on back test it all look nice but i got 6 positions i used with fibo and all of them are loosing one . i used it as orders even left some space but the fact is everybody see those levels the private investors and the big sharks , the big sharks just eat all the small private investors that use same strategies I see fibo as math everybody is agree that 2+2=4 those are the levels that in our believe it behave but the someone big anought is saying its not 4 its 5 and who thought is 4 now wrong this is fibo its artificial behavior that we believe in it . i do think its good take profit option using fibo but not as entry . More then this, if i was using my system i using at this journal. i wouldn’t enter none of those deals . As more i dig and more i trade the only conclusion that to win this forex game need to develop clean strategy perfect it if system have even 70 % success with right win loose ratio and money management it can be the personal holy grail . what i been using building and perfecting so far gave me great results . but i have a long journey ahead as each pare acts different to my system . and this what i am studying now . one more thing i using price action especially the brake consolidation zone i studied the Japanese candles but it brought me to conclusion that without real trading volume data they are pretty useless because many times there is a move we see but we not know how many was sold or bought even if it big move it can be very small volume compared to general movements . and then we shouldn’t react to it , or opposite .thats why in the stocks candles work good as it possible to see the volumes . I also want to check the fundamental analysis . it much more complicated but i think that who know how to use it can get allot of benefit from it getting data about general movement . And i not talk about news trade but as analysis for each country coin and where it moving . This a leave for the summer …
another reason fabinochi sucks , 2 days ago eur usd reached s-r also by fibo. i enterd sell , it was right decision. because it go down 2 days already so why i stopped lost . if we see today what happen is it spiculants and banks burned all private investors who didnt have enough space to stop . 2 weeks i try fibo 2 weeks i loose . i done with fibo. i back to my system and my TP will be avarage big moves for each coin . see next week. the best way to trade is way nobody use . so i will back to it
new week starting we had big moves in the last days . which was because some fundamental announcements.
last 2 weeks i lost almost all i earned in the last past months because i tried fibo its not fit me . i made some improvements in my old system , so i can see better the big daily picture . from tomorrow i am going to trade by old way .
another thing i now will do is i stop count pips on weekly or monthly as before it made me to do some non reasonable things as open some not good trades or close some before time as i was running for specific amount of trades and pips . i did some back testing and analysing on some major pairs . SO the new relax trade is going to be on 2 positions one medium move the other one half on the first lot but double move (100/200 pips) with similar stop loss . and i not going to change the stop loss any more each day i will only move it to “0” if the movement will pass specific level and after first level will be reached i will move the stop loss of the big move to half of first . and see how it run . i think it will be much better as each trade will be open for days or weeks and as long a trade on pair is open i no touch it less stress and more quiet for me
so the last week i added another filter . i only had the usdeur trade with nice 80 pips profit but no other entries . i going to wait but i think the usdeur will go up again at least untill some other big news . it currently on a very big s/r zone so all we have to do is wait .
what i expect is :
enter gbpusd for buy if it continue little bit more
usdchf i think will drop soon , if i was not busy with the fibo experiment i would sell the usdcad 16 days ago .
the eurchf is at interesting point after big down move it now tickle 4 times already same zone with small movement.
cadjpy is in interesting point also .
so i will update if something interesting happened during the next week .
good trade everybody.
I been missing from the arena for a while had an exams (need to finish my study ) and some personal staff.
i almost not traded all this time but read some books discovered new things.
Now i concentrating on the pattern trading . i made some trades in demo account which was pretty successful.
What i like about it that it uses the fibo but only when particular shape is occur . which best describes the crowd behaviour .
the second good thing is it catches the top and bottoms and let me take the fruits when they perfect and not rotten already towards the end (remind me indicator trading ).
So what i use now is:
1.fibo which is very important enter exit and stops .
2. candles pattern although i not so much believe in them any more as without volume they 50/50 game, we also can see that many of the formations of the candles are not relevant for the forex 24 market , but still some formations are good confirmation specially daily candles.
3.S/R i not look for small local but some big which also can give me early clue about where price is moving or not.
4. The most important is money and trade management . Before every trade i write the enter the sl and tp . and i not changing them in no matter what no gridy and no pitty . also i try that win lose be at least 1/2 or more . for now i just testing it for myself on demo for learning patterns and behaviour . as soon i see it good i will start using it on small real account . and will post here or new journal