So after a long long study i decided to open this trading journal hopefully it will help me and if not will make me go back to engineering table. i been trying trade on small time frames also this system and had some nice results but i no have the time or the psychology for it. so i moved to daily candles and i will try to trade by my support and resistant and moves between those lines . Some candle patterns and general move direction .
So today is a good start for now i no have any open positions hopefully it will change tomorrow. i look at forex calendar to spot some big events but generally i not use fundamental . As i believe there are some smart and strong people that already change the market in the needed direction before the news happen and as i trade on daily candles the impact are small.
the system it self i revile later if it will work for now i just practice .
my entries will be manual and exits auto by order .
3-2-14
eur/usd my line is 1.3515 i will see what will happen during the rest of the day , if it will close above it i will enter long and exit on 1.3595 with sl is the lowest low of the current swing. and if it continue down i will enter short at 1.3474 and exit 1.3426 with sl 1.3520.
gbp/usd it stuck between 2 lines with general uptrend so i will wait till tomorrow see where it closed today . If it close below 1.6320 i will short and exit 1.6250 if it go up and close 1.6372 i will go long and exit in 1.6428
usd jpy if it close today above 102.25 i will go long exit 102.86 otherwise i enter below 101.67 and exit in 100.33
i also add usd chf as it looks nice if it close below 0.9048 i will short to 0.8971
4.2.14 Updates , i entered gbpusd as i planned but unfortunately missed the TP target . by 7 pips from from 70 pips i wanted to take it get 63 and go back it still didnt hit the SL 1.6375 line so for now it still running but not look good for now it made it daily lonodon jump lets see what will happen on usd session . what i learned ? if i not monitoring the trade better be little flexible with my lines one more thing i see after it happened that ema 100 is going just 10 pips above my line it should be the TP i missed it .
eur usd i entered long as it closed above 1.3515 for now it consolidating. so i nothing to say .
jpy usd i broke the rules little bit i wanted go short but i looked at fibo and it showed it was a 50 retracment so i go long for now in profit also because i didnt actually had a take profit line .
because i new to this time frame and ususally i played during london on 5 minutes graph i think i will change all my daily enter to a london session . what its meaning is that if today i entered all trades on the close of candle from today i will wait till london opens (that’s way i also can see if the Japanese make me problems :o) and i will make my entering by the 5 minutes graphs as there i can see if a trend is broken by the last cuople of days i can put an entering points.
comment about usd chf if it brake the 0.9002 line on my 5 minute i will enter with 30 pips and take profit after 30 pips . i didnt look at it yesterday but it just touched the 0.9007 old S/R line so i pretty safely could today enter long and exit on 0.9047 ant take some profit but it gone alredy so i will wait for new trade .
update : gbp usd exited with 0 lose and profit as i choose because my profit line was almost hit 100 ema very near also liner line of 2 previous reversals shows it the level to price start go up .
late update i closed the jpyusd with 48 pips profit why i did this ? well i entered it by fibonachi it not part of my system i use in this journal . i also put some indis on it for verification bulls and bears are showing strong short and it hit the ichimoku cloud. i not use ichimoku as indicator for trade but i use its cloud as very strong confirmation to my own S/R lines ans as i mentioned earlier my system didn’t give me any clear take profit for jpy so i totally count on this one on the ichimoku , and the fibo retrace ment is 4 months long and i hate so long time frames add i to this that my lines begin from 101.69 which jpy touched i prefer to have one fat bird in my hands . then to skinny in the sky. the usd eur stil not moved in standby all day but i still believe it will go up (and yes i know believe and hope is what kills most of the traders) but as long nothing tells me to get out i will stick to my choice.
5.2.14. nothing to update i dint had time to check daily trades and quick look dint gave me nothing the usdeur still runing +10 already :35:.
quick review of what i see:
gbp usd: it tried to brake 1.6246 yesterday and today but the bulls fought back so it almost unchanged for 2 days but the bears show sifgn of weakness and for now its in middle of the cloud but if it go up it will be to the 1.6411 levles if it pass it it will go up in my opinion but for now i wait as i want to play safe .
eur usd : shows good signs of uptrend but need to wait it under the cloud and it flat so easy to get to it also the kijun sen flat also i believe it will go at least to the cloud bounce in and good chance go down again and this is because in generally it in down trend
usd jpy :is trying to break the cloud and fall down for now bears are very strong but show some weakness signs so i optimistic it will back to its uptrend and then i will cache it for now no reason to jump in not up nor down . for now the candle show hammer a sign of reversal so just sit and wait .
aud usd : ichi is bearish strong resistance just little bit above bulls were strong in last couple of days so i will wait also with it although in big picture it didnt brake my line 0.8944 so if it goes below 0.8868 for me it will be the sign to short … happy trading
6.2.14 I had a big exam today so i didn’t had time to check positions tomorrow Friday so maybe i will trade little bit on the 5 minutes if i have time but nothing long term . my eurusd closed nice on 80 pips profit . it was some news i guess because it jumped fast but it also stopped little bit above where i thought it will and we still have time to end of the day from there i believe it will go down but this we see next week.
this week i didn’t traded allot because the was no serious signals and also because i had other things on my mind i cached some usdjpy moves on smaller time frames using also this method 20 and 30 pips .
I did checked some Japanese made indicator i found on this forum gbp/yen it was total garbage i didn’t open trades just compared what it said to what happened .
ichi cloud and regression/deviance channels show me S/R. momentum, bears bulls power set to 13 or 7 up to you .
that’s it for this week … nice weekend to me and everybody reading
the regression and deviance works perfectly on 5 minute charts to predict all upcoming day.
that’s it for this week … nice weekend to me and everybody reading
10-2-14
Monday, i opened a trade on buy jpy usd it should go up on 30-40 pips after it or it will be in uptrend or go down we will see tomorrow .
buy gbpusd the stoch got out from oversold force index is up so do the bears , and it has around 40 pips o next resistant line, and overall trend is up .
sell eur usd , the top it will go is 25 pips after it it will go down i opened this trade based on something else and already loosing pips but all the data show me it will go down soon , stoch in over , force is showing down and bears are flat , i believe i will catch a 100-150 pips move at least .
sell aud jpy , stoch in over bulls down force down based on trend lines it made a beautiful turn around from up to down with some candle pattern i think it will fall. if it get to 90.80 it will drop down by 100 pips at least tomorrow will see.
all those trades little bit risky because i entered the little early .
the aud usd should go down too but this one i will wait for little bit more confirmation. although force down bulls down stoch over , and it changes direction by the trend line .i beliave i will enter it tomorrow
usd chf the overall trend is up the stoch is entering the oversold force is up , all i left is to wait for the bears change direction and wait it close above trend line hopefully tomorrow. really i not like this pair as it moves unexpectedly and even candle pattern not working on it .
weird hours indeed , but my audjpy close at sl -100 pips , why ??? i entered in general trend direction all my indicators were good* so what happened ??? i entered too early the price was still overbought at that moment so it go down but then jumped up . conclusion for my self is always wait for price enter to the real cost and not buy to early or too late even at the cost of some pips . lesson learnt also a lesson that if my indicators show me enter not to wait . because after 2 hours Sunday trade it showed me enter , Monday trade was good but one indicator showed no go but i ignored , *if i was smart i would enter on Sunday with 50 pips take profit (the price dropped 70 and then went up).
eur usd it up and up and up , still loosing but i cross my fingers it will turn down , 1.3700 was one point where it stopped and then moved on next point around 1.3810. it brake all fibo lines but the regression support holding it so for now i just wait.
usd-chf hit sl i just set to small sl so it hit it without i notesed i set it to 35 pips which for all day trading is too little so now i just wait it turn up and enter again . my mistake !!! usd chf will go down to 0.8848 after it i will look for enter
eurgbp eurchf usdjpy nzdusd all in profit but not closed yet sl moved to 0 in all of them .
usd cad i believe for now it will continue its uptrend the question is will it happen now around 1.0969 or go liitle more down to 1.0894 or will it continue the down trend we will see for now no reason to enter
As i noticed from my broker report that my win rate is very good more then 80 % wining setups in the last months since i started to use the system . what i am going to work is money management and risk management . money management is easy for me now as i tuned up one click trade which mean all my deals will open with same money and same leverage . the other problem is my loosing i not loose a lot of deals but i noticed sometime the loosing are way to big ,as the common forex problem of newbies . hoping that loosing trade will turn to wining trade . i been following some traders on etoro . with perfect win rate not a single lose but players like this play without stop loss it meaning very small leverage small amount and to be ready to hold position for months with potential hundred of pips loose position . for some people it work for me i not think so so i need to learn to close loosing position fast without regret or thinking . thats what i will practise in the future . also i will try practice days setups based on previous 1-2 days and see how it will work . i now reading wonderfull book about Fibonacci trading . make me think again about my setups mostly take money points
eurgbp profit nzd usd profit usd jpy small profit eur chf and usd chf close on zero usdeur still holding.
yesterday i was burned by the usdcad i entered sell as it was obvious downtrend and in the same hour it jumped by more then 100 pips opposite direction . i guess i need to notes the news also .
i also going to change my setups from now . untill now i opened 1 trade gave it sl and tp and waited . from today i am going to open 3 trades wit 1 sl wich will move to 0 at the moment first tp hit and then sl will be moved up as second tp hit untill the third. from what i see other traders this thing works very good and usually get nice profits unless the setup is wrong from the beginig . and for this i going to use some other indicator that from see a history in combination with good s/r can give very good results.
its a demo account and its all thread is educational for me . so i try to upgrade my thinking and system . i try learn other successful trades as i copy the but only to learn . i will never copy real money trade as it too much stupid and dangerous. but to learn to analyse their setups is interesting. i also going to start learn news for little bit.
one more thing about yesterday cad/usd bad trade if i was using fibo on the last high/ low the take profit would get hit first also i wouldn’t lose as sl was moved already to profit anyway position.
i also woukd see it was just retracment to 50 line of fibo in generall uptrend :). lesson learned
Well today was a day in which i realize why 99% of traders loose. It seemed all i was planing is going against me at some stage i just wanted to throw my pc from window and forget this F**** forex . I truly believe it happening to many traders specially those who didn’t had the patience to practice and study in demo people loose get angry and quit . The ones who trade demo get frustrated and also quit . well not me. all it need to do is cup of good cofee and take a good brake . if things are not going as planed no need to push just relax let it settle down and then start over and see what is wrong . today and tomorrow i holiday, and after it i will try changing some aspects of my trade i have an idia already just need time to relax . happy trading
well i say i would rest , but i didnt , i almost finish reading the book rsi the complete guide (last week i read fibonachi trading ) from the fibo i didnt get too much new info . but the rsi book is amazing . i ploted it on a charts it really do what the book say . going to try it with macd 2 lines and stoch as confirmation . i tried it on daily charts with some patience it can give really smooth entry signals and really can act totally different from what all the sites are telling .
i think it will take me a week or two to really understand the power of it.
i also like the “elders” 3 frame trading way and his market roentgen he uses 13,26 emas force index and macd with 2 lines, so i will try to merge all of it to something powerful but with minimal indicators .
I did tried last night to plot this on hourly charts the rsi entry and s\r it gives can give one or two entries on 1 hour frame very very acuurate . its good for scalpers but my brooker is etoro so no scalping for me but this is great way to beat the binary options .
We all know they are desk brookers so it means for every my loose they win and the opposite . and because of it they usually cheat with the rate but because they also work on 5 digit they cheat no more the 10-15 pips but avarage moves on the 1 hour with 5 digits is around 40-50 pips so it worth to try .
today i mastered something based on the rsi include using its lines as support and resistant i back tested gbpusd on daily with perfect score now i wll test it during the real trade the good it a winning the bad i not know yet where to take profit and it give signal 1-2 a month but with 100-300 pips each time . it also shows amazing result on the hourly trade . will test it and back with conclusions …
but it really need to make me understand the movement ratio between the price and the rsi .
As the day closing not there are no any signals for today the only thing i can think is that the eurusd will go upper to the latest high . nothing more. i will write now daily report of open trades and new trades i open …(also pips earned and lost)
26/2/14
open trades :
usd/gbp long 1.6674
usd/chf longt 0.8890 (don’t ask why i opened it)
new trades :
pip count : 0
27/2/14 i close the usd chf with 0 because i entered it without thinking. the gbp usd atill open . the usdeur retaced back today but in my opinion it just to get ready for bigger move. i will consider enter but for now my indis show it a trend brake position so i will wait, same with aud usd .
open trades :
usd/gbp long 1.6674
new trades :
sell eurjpy 140.03
buy usd cad 1.1139
sell aud usd 0.8927
i didn’t abandon Forex heheh but i forget to write here as i usually trade by orders and take profit or sl auto . so i avoid of hours in front of the PC also avoid psycho damage :31: , last week a made very nice 357 pips profit from eur jpy usd jpy and gbpusd.
Any way for now i manual back test candle by candle s/r system based on RSI indicator . i use it mainly as show me where the price now to price before on several times and also as s/r zones and not as entry or overprice indi . it give me 2 trades a month on daily base . 1-10-12 till 1-7-13 it gave me 1968 pips so it 200+ pips monthly from eurusd . its very simple and it base more on s/r and consilidation zones and patterns as the rsi just show the general direction and position more to avoid bad entries . i also testing the fibo projection tool as very nice take profit and s/l tools . so if i enter trade i look s/r zones if it fits the fibo i then i use those zones , they usually work.
i also use 13-26 emas for get idea if price to low or high and if it is i wait it go back to those averages then i order my entry
aud usd and usd cad was sl total damage of 180 pips