Newbie's Trading Journal

[B]GBP/USD Forecast March 7, 2016, Technical Analysis[/B]

The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course of the day on Friday, but then shot higher in order to form a positive candle. It looks as if the market should continue to go little bit higher, but there is so much in the way of resistance that we feel it’s only matter of time before the sellers get involved. On an exhaustive candle, we will not hesitate to sell this market as it should then find plenty of sellers going forward. At that point, we would anticipate a move back down to the 1.40 handle

[B]Technical Analysis EUR/USD for March 7, 2016[/B]

The EUR/USD moved higher on Friday recapturing the 10-day moving average and closing near the 1.10 level. This comes despite a stronger than expected headline U.S. payroll report, which actually showed that wages are declining. Resistance is seen near the February highs at 1.1376. The RSI (relative strength index is moving higher along with price action reflecting accelerating positive momentum that points to higher prices.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 242k in February, better than expected, after a 172k January gain which was revised up from 151k, and a 271k December jump revised up from 262k. Household employment rose another 530k, while the labor force climbed 555k. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% compared to the prior month’s 0.5% surge. The average workweek declined to 34.4 from 34.6 previously. Private payrolls climbed 230k.


The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, but turned back around to form a bit of a neutral candle. It now looks as if we are going to try to break above the 115 handle, but there so much in the way of resistance between here and the 115 handle, so it’s going to be difficult to get above there. However, it looks as if there is a significant amount of bullish pressure so any time we pullback we feel the market should be bought for short-term moves.

[B]AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – March 7, 2016 Forecast[/B]

The AUD/USD was one of the best performing markets last week with the Forex pair posting a gain of .0308 or 4.31%. The strong rally put the Aussie at an eight-month high versus the U.S. Dollar, but raised concerns that the Reserve Bank of Australia might have to cut interest rates to less than the current 2 percent. Its concern is that an overpriced currency may hurt the economy since it relies on exports.

RBA board member John Edwards said recently he would like to see the Australian about .6500. Because of its recent strong gains, investors should start watching for currency-related comments from RBA officials as they may attempt to talk down the Aussie.

Last week’s price surge was fueled by a combination of better-than-expected fourth-quarter economic growth, firming commodity prices and resurgent foreign interest in Australian government bonds.

On Friday alone, the Australian Dollar spiked more than 1 percent against the Greenback. Its latest surge was sparked by mixed jobs data from the U.S., where non-farm payrolls came in well above expectations but average hourly income slipped 0.1 percent. This led to increased speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be slow to raise rates in 2016 after hiking rates in December for the first time in almost 10 years.


The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Friday, but found the 1.35 level a bit too resistive and then we broke down significantly. With this being the case, looks as if we could very well break down below the 1.33 handle and reach down towards the 1.30 handle given enough time. Keep in mind that oil markets have a great influence on the Canadian dollar, and as they rise the Canadian dollar generally benefits. So at this point in time it looks very likely that the market will continue to grind its way lower.

[B]Technical analysis of CHF/JPY for March 21, 2016[/B]

hold short positions with a stop loss just above R1, targeting either S1 (114.10) or S2 (113.60) as the final target for a potential upcoming wave down.

Support: 114.10, 113.60

Resistance: 114.90, 115.40


buy NZD/CHF while the price is near S1 (0.6600), targeting either R2 (0.6690) or R3 (0.6750) being the final target for a potential upcoming wave up. A stop loss should be well below the S1 support.

Support: 0.6600

[B]Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 18th, 2016[/B]

Refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur in the near term.


Resistance. 110.00.

Resistance. 109.81.

Resistance. 109.60.

Support. 109.34.

Support. 109.12.

Support. 108.91.

[B] EUR/USD Technical levels for April 14, 2016[/B]

Strong Resistance 1.1327.

Original Resistance 1.1316.

Inner Sell Area 1.1305

Original Support 1.1241.

Strong Support 1.1231.

Breakout SELL Level 1.1225.


Since we expect a massive break to the lowerside, We will remain short in this pair from 123.77 and have our stop slightly lower towards 123.90.

[B]EUR/NZD Technical View for April 14 - 2016[/B]

During this day, we expect an acceleration to the upper side. We will therefore look to buy from 1.6325. The anticipated upward rally should have a target at 1.66. But should have a S/L at 1.6225

Earlier today, the commodity formed a bearish evening star pattern on its longer time frame. Following this bearish candle, we will look for short positions during this intraday


GBP/USD is currently trading with a bullish bias. Following the gap up, expect an upward rally towards 1.4465 to for a double top with the resistance level to go short.

[B][B]EUR/USD Technical Analysis for 25 Aprill 2016[/B][/B]

EUR/USD is currently trading with a bullish bias. Expect the pair to trade in the higher ranges with a target at 1.1270. A beakout above this level will push the price further to the upperside.


[B]
Summary :[/B]
Target Level : 1.4653
Target Period : 5 hours
[B]
Analysis :[/B]
Rising Wedge identified at 06-May-05:30 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.465 within the next 5 hours.

[B]Resistance Levels :[/B]
( B ) 1.4693Last resistance turning point of Rising Wedge.
[B]
Support Levels[/B]
( A ) 1.4653Last support turning point of Rising Wedge.

[B]GBP/NZD Technical Analysis for 16th May 2016
[/B]

[B]Summary :[/B]
Target Level : 2.1296
Target Period : 3 days
[B]
Analysis :[/B]
Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 06-May-02:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 3 days towards 2.13.

[B]Supporting Indicators :[/B]
Upward sloping Moving Average

Resistance Levels :
[B]
Support Levels[/B]
( A ) 2.0949Last support turning point of Triangle.


[B]
Summary :[/B]
Target Level : 82.9908
Target Period : 14 hours

[B]Analysis :[/B]
Triangle has broken through the support line at 06-May-01:00 2016 GMT. Possible bearish price movement forecast for the next 14 hours towards 82.991.
[B]
Supporting Indicators :[/B]
Downward sloping Moving Average
[B]
Resistance Levels :[/B]
( A ) 83.5545Last resistance turning point of Triangle.

Support Levels

[B]USDCAD Technical Analysis for 16th May 2016[/B]

Identified time : 2016-05-06 07:30 UTC
Breakout price : 1.28693
Forecast price : 1.28372
Forecast pips : -32
Probability : 66.78 %

Pattern : Rising Wedge
Interval : 15 Min


[B] Summary :[/B]
Target Level : 1.1371
Target Period : 4 hours

[B]Analysis :[/B]
Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.1371 within the next 4 hours.
[B]
Supporting Indicators :[/B]
Downward sloping Moving Average
[B]
Resistance Levels :[/B]
( B ) 1.14264 hour high volatility level

[B]Support Levels[/B]
( A ) 1.13714 hour low volatility level