Trading the Trend with Strong/Weak Analysis

Just go and hammer…suck money.

Stock market down, Yen up, that has been the story in the early part of 2016, the last thing you want to do is chase any of these one day moves

Another gap open higher for the Gold Miners and look at those volume bars. If this move does signal the end to the 4 year bear market in Gold and Silver then we should see a low volume pull back soon, that would be the time to buy

CHF surges on the day

Top Strong weak trade, EUR/GBP

Another ruff day for the US dollar

USDJPY is now top SW trade, after a rejection of the 200 day moving average USDJPY has dropped 900 pips

So far this year we have had 11 pairs make the top SW trade, only three currencies ( JPY , EUR & CAD ) have been ranked #1, 6 have been ranked 8th ( USD, GBP, CHF, NZD, CAD & AUD) This all demonstrates just how volatile the markets have been, not a great environment for trend trading , so be patient and if you do trade , keep you positions small. This phase of the market will pass

Another huge day for Gold and Miners , look at those volume bars

Yeah, high spikes like oil the other weeks. Do you plan to trade the volatility, or will you let the dust settle?

It’s been a tough few weeks. Are you out most pairs?

Yen widens it’s lead over all others

I took profit on half my USDJPY at the 200 ma then was stopped out at break even on the rest, in hind sight I am going to look at this chart a kick myself for not going short when price rejected the 200 ma.

There is a lot of panic out there as can be seen in the spike in Gold, it might be a good contrarian play to bet against some of these moves as they are not sustainable, it is just a matter a picking your spot and enduring some early looses as picking the bottom is unlikely

Ah yes, hate when that happens. At least you’ve entered the weekends with a profit overall. Hate to be the one that shorted Gold over the last two weeks.

Based on your experience, how long do you think JPY retain its strength if we assume that some of the world economies go into a bear market/recession?

I included the last 3 weeks of Friday closes, this shows lots of choppy action

Experience is not a good thing in this market as nothing is acting as it has in the past. Yen likes to swing from Strong to weak and back to strong, so I would expect the next swing in the yen to the down side. But if it is a weak move lower then I would use that weakness to go long Yen

That sounds like a plan. I think the markets had enough of bad news and are fleeing to safer instruments. Gold + JPY might be a good play after they consolidate.

Edit: GBPJPY looks like a good play.

Down day for Yen but with US markets closed I would not read too much into it

GBP has been one of the weaker currencies this year so shorting GBPJPY after a pull back might work

When I saw the DOW was up 200 I would had bet the farm that the Yen was getting beat up, but to my surprise Yen was top currency on the day

EURGBP is one of our better trends in an other wise choppy market, looks good to keep moving higher, Two year old resistance at 0.8000