My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

Hi Journal.
Well, it’s Monday morning now. This is one of those weekends that I’m off of work on Monday, cause I worked on Sat. So, that’s nice, what’s been going on? Did you trade anymore this week you ask?
Nope. I was on the sidelines the rest of the week. Well, I guess this will be a new entry into the journal, that is, something that normally doesn’t occur. And it’s what happened. …Yep, I’m gonna sound off about it now.
As I look back at my last post, I remember being very happy. Oh yeah…no…look… I’m still happy, don’t get me wrong…it’s just…this was one of those weeks that I was right on about the market. And I was not in. Look at my last words up there…yep, the Majors did take the rest of the week. Ok, I went back to see the numbers, and this is how it looked. These are pips. Blue = Majors and Pink = Comms. Monday through Friday and the total shake out for the week.


You know, well I guess you don’t know but, over 2k pips in a day is a lot. So that’s why Monday was really slanted to the Majors. And it continued through Tuesday. (I jumped out at the beginning of Tuesday, at London open). Then comes the turn around (Wednesday), then, right back to the Majors on Thursday. Then Friday…well, that was the day the CAD just pounded everyone.
So…as I look back on it, I guess I didn’t do too bad. It’s just… I remember thinking so much this week how much I was missing out. I was on a high, because of how much I had come back from. And it’s kind of tough to separate the market sentiment from my account sentiment.
Bottom line is I did good. But, this was a first, where I was right about the direction of the market and was not in.
Normally the scenario is I’m in, and behind, and waiting it out for a turn back my way.

Ok, that’s nice. I just needed to talk about that a little. And when I think about it, I guess if I have any problems, that’s the one that I would hope to have. The account is looking good, but I didn’t make any real head way on up (cushion).

So…what else is going on? Uh, well, my sentiment going forward this month is definitely with the Majors.
Again. So any trade that I’m in will be with them. When I look at my tables, that I draw up, it is amazing how the market does consider the time table of a month. At the beginning of every month, is just so telling.
Sure there’s changing and movement happening throughout, but, whoever is at the top is pretty much staying up there. And that’s why this month I’m favoring the Majors. JPY is boss. Sure, anything can happen, but the chances are greater that that will be the case, than for a deviation of that.
Ok, here’s a screen shot of the month of March. You probably can’t see the numbers, but it’s the colors that are important. This is running daily totals as the month progresses, from strong to weak (top to bottom). And the Comms are reddish in color. Easy to differentiate.



And look at the switch, from March to April. (the top # is the monthly total %, bold # is the daily %)

So, we’ll see how it turns out.

Mike

1 Like

Hi Journal…
Well, it’s Thursday am right now. And since I’m true to you in reporting what’s going on with me on my journey, I figured this post is needed at this time (instead of the weekend).
I’m down.

I lost.

It’s over.

The game is over.

Ok, let’s see. Where do I start?
Oh yeah, I lost. I lost just about it all. Why? …Well, I got in on Monday and it’s in the wrong direction. I kept hanging in there, but this time there was no turn. I guess my luck has just ran out. I feel it. I have tasted it. It does not feel good. Soooo many emotions (mentally) been running through my mind lately.
So, I figured I’d come on in here when I’m right in the middle of them all.

Well, to be honest with myself (and you) I need to get out what is going on in my head. The first thing I’ve been thinking is that I need to learn something here. You know, I’ve read just about everything there is out there about what a trader goes through. And a lot of that is coming to mind. Sure, every trader will go through a crash. A blown account. Ok, many. And dummy me is thinking I just don’t want that to happen to me. I’m thinking that I’ve spent enough time in this business to be past that. I’ve felt that before (on demo). Quite a few times. And I wanted to get all that out of the way before I went live. Well, here I am now. Just about down on my last leg. I only have $293.48 in my account. And I can’t trade my strategy with that. I got margin called quite a few times already.
So, here it is. The bottom for me. And what am I going to do now?
Admit a lot of things, at this time.
I’m not that smart. Sure, I want to think so. But I admit it, right now. I’m not that smart. I have much learning to do.
I’m stubborn. If there’s anything a trader knows…it’s the most important rule. PROTECT THE ACCOUNT!!!
And I didn’t. …
Well, I guess if I need to learn something, it’s best to embrace this feeling now. Should I fear losing it all?
Is that smart? I mean, I don’t want to be afraid of anything. I don’t want to be trading with fear. Meaning I don’t want any emotions to be incorporated in my trading. That could affect the outcome. To the topside. Cause I don’t want to be held back with that as a factor. And on the other hand, I don’t want to be reckless either. (I remember reading stuff about that also) So, I guess I need a healthy respect for the market. I am learning that the market is just not that predictable. Anything can happen. And I guess I just never took that too seriously. Sure I knew that. But did I know it enough to be more careful? Apparently not. Well, maybe now I will. (YOU DUMMY!!!)
I need to admit that I am not good. Well, not that good enough. Sure, I have seen my account grow over the last 3 months. I was successful up through March. So therefore I thought I was good enough. Ok, now I know…I’m not that good. I have much learning to do.
So, I know there are multiple things I need to adjust. Technically speaking. Money management wise. Etc…
(I don’t have the time right now, but I do need to get those things down).
But you know, one thing is true. I will not give up. I mean…if there’s one thing in my life that I will accomplish, it’s to have this as my business. I am more determined than anything to become successful here. This will absolutely be the last thing I ever do in my life. Cause I will not quit, till I’m dead.
I just need to get smart. Ok, smart enough. And I’ve heard many times (and did feel it) of the fact that we traders learn very much from hitting rock bottom. And that’s what I’m going to do. I will find out what my problems are. And I know that all the answers are in my head. You know, everything is common sense.
That is my favorite piece of advise that I give to people.(young co workers at work, my children) . Everything is common sense. And all we have to do is use it. Everything in life is common sense, when you think about it. And that’s the key, when you find the answer you will absolutely say, “that makes sense”.
So, I have a lot of sorting out to do.
You know, it is a fact about me, that if there was a way to add up all of my thoughts and compartmentalized everything, I would have more thoughts about my trading business than anything else.
I just need to put it all together and find out my errors. And let me say…I just know if there are traders out there that read this, I just can here it all…MIKE, WHY DON’T YOU HAVE ANY STOP LOSSES!!!
Believe me, I am aware of that. That goes through my mind all the time. I don’t have the time to give out all the reasons for the contrary. That’s a long discussion. But, the fact is, I am aware of that aspect. I guess it comes down to protecting the account.
I think that’s where I will start. Having rules in place for me to be able to continue.

So, journal…there you have it…I’m stupid…down…but…not out.

I will learn.

My life in this business is just getting started.

I will be in touch.

Mike

2 Likes

Mike,

Nobody has ever grown from winning all the time. We have a similar perspective and approach and I already know I’m going to be where you are right now. I look forward to it happening because then I can use it to grow as well. You’re a better man than I though by being able to come here and share that experience with everyone.

EJ

Same here bro… add me into this… it’s a stage for a forex trader…

Hi Journal. It’s me.
First off, I would like to thank you two guys for sharing. Well, you did make me feel better. Actually it was in the sense of realizing reality. The trading business is very lonely. And when I go down, it’s good to hear (from others in the same boat) that it is what we will encounter on the journey. Well, in the beginning stages anyway. Cause I just can’t imagine me being so stupid enough to let that happen again. I mean, when I really think about it, I have all the power in the world to prevent that from happening. I do have all control over how far I should let my account fall to. There is no excuse. And I accept that. I guess (as I have told my kids over and over again) the way we really learn things in life is by experience. The hard way. (Although I always thought if they would only listen to me they can avoid the bad things from happening in life. And time and time again they just don’t.)
Ok. That’s nice. How about some lessons. That’s what I’ve been concentrating on lately. Where did I go wrong?
Well, surely I need to accept losses. See, that’s a very hard thing for me to do. It’s such a personal thing. I have gotten away, too much lately, with letting things ride and seeing them come on back for me. Sure it worked. But, now, I know that if I’m wrong, it’s the biggest price to pay. And it’s not always a guaranteed outcome (that the market will come back my way). See, journal, the kind of person I am, is this. My life can be characterized by me going all the way, one way or the other. I was taught that when I was young. It is good advise. ‘Go all the way…one way or the other’. ‘If your gonna do something, do it with all your might’. ‘Do not do things half way’. ‘I’m all or nothing…one way or the other’. I prefer to do things to the max or I don’t do it at all. And I’m my trading I prefer to set goals, and meet them, at whatever cost. I hate being in the middle ground. And look, I’m working on it. I’m aware of who I am and my shortcomings. This last week just happened to get away from me. I should have accepted the loss early on. I will start putting in fail safe guards from now on.
The other thing I wanted to know was what went wrong? Technically speaking. The market. And then it hit me. I have gotten away from seeing the thing I started out with. My excel chart #6. Ok, let me back this up some.
I realized that I was waiting for a turn. (I’m sure journal you have heard me say this over and over again).
The only thing that occupied my mind was this. ‘The Majors have to be making a come back’. I went back and looked at my notes. I was saying this very thing since the end of Feb beginning of March. Then I took a good look at my chart. I realized that my emotions are getting in the way of facts. I do admit that when I think of the Comms that they are the bad guys. But I find it very difficult to rid that in my mind. I guess I prefer the underdogs. It’s just a wonderful thing to see a comeback come true. I know very well that all those emotions should not have any part in trading. I want to be un-bias. And the best way is technically speaking. I am only dealing with 2 groups of entities. I will be either right or wrong. (I do think that’s so much better than trying to pick out a single currency stronger than 7 others) (Plus the whole world’s money will either be trying to get some risk, or not.) Anyway, what I did is look at the chart. And now I realize that this is the tell-all for my strategy. And I know that the answers are in this chart. So, I was fighting a trend. It is evident. I should have paid more attention to the big picture. I’m going to put it up.
I think I will have more of an advantage if I pay attention more to this chart. And couple with that my money management lessons. …‘Mike, get out and try again another time!!!’


Just look at the beginning of last year. Only a couple days into the year the Majors have taken off on up.
(BTW…anything moving up is Major positive/Comm negative. Likewise any line moving down is Comm positive/Major negative) This is daily pip shake out numbers between the two. So, this year is looking like last year! Then after they had their run the Comms took over and trended. Just like this year. And guess what? Their trend lasted until April 28th. Then the Majors took over for most of the spring time and summer. Look, I don’t know if history will be repeating itself again, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Now another look at the chart, closer to the present.



Each of those white dots is a Friday. And you can see how I was in the market (this last week), wanting it to go up, but it didn’t. It was all Comms. Lost everything. But see how the second to the last week I made it real good? They just didn’t break out of the trend. The Comms just continued to trend against the Majors.

Ok. So, we’ll see what happens.
I’m back in the game. I put in $500.00 dollars into my account.
I will revise my chart of the account.
More on that later.

Mike

1 Like

Hi Journal…
*( Hey Mike! Wow! There you are. Where you been? I thought you went off the deep end. I mean, I knew you went through a rough time…Ok, yeah, you lost it all, but it looked like you were on your way back. Talk to me. )

OK…Well Journal, I’ll give you quick picture of what happened. Have you ever been on a roller coaster? It kind of reminds me of one in particular. It has a double dip on it. From the highest point on it you go down… pretty far… and then there’s a really quick leveling out (we’re talking about like in a second’s worth of time), and then there’s a second dip on down. So, yep, you think you’ve hit the bottom until you find out that it goes down oh so much further. Well, yep, I have just ridden this roller coaster.

I put in $500. And what did I do? Well, I traded the same way. It was pretty cool…at the start. My account went all the way up to like $1,300. And then down it goes. All the way down. I lost it all.
Again!!!

And it kills me. Cause it’s like I don’t TAKE PROFIT. Or don’t know when to stop. Like having stop losses.
And it all stems back to the strategy. What is in place. I have always been bothered by that, in the back of my mind. So, yeah, my mind has been in such a tizzy lately. It’s not like I’m thinking of giving up, but of what’s the problem. I’m trying to figure out this strategy. That’s what is really what’s going on. It’s the strategy. And I have come to realize that I am stubborn. I don’t want to change this strat, but figure out a way to make it work. Well…after much mental anguish I have come to realize that I cannot do it with this strategy. – What!! You mean…trade like…one trade? Like everyone else does? Do what the common person does? NO WAY. I am not like your normal person. Ok, I don’t want to be, anyway. What, and like have take profits in place along with stop losses? NO… That’s too easy. I enjoyed very much the basket of trades way. I mean, I made it work for the first three months of this year! Yeah…but you lost it all Mike…TWICE!! So it was all for nothing!!! But…but…
OK.
I guess I have to change. But I am coming back to that strategy, sometime in the future. Probably the far future. It’s a shame, cause I’ve worked on that for such a long time. And now I have to throw it away.
Well, maybe I can use the important aspect of it. I mean, it’s just so undeniable, the whole entire structure revolves around the currencies that move together. It does work. But, it’s just so tough to juggle and keep track of the individuals. And that’s the thing, they are individual currencies also. Meaning the risk on/off aspect is not their entire purpose. There’s so much other things that are going on. Just look at the relationship of the USD and the JPY. Their both a Major, both safe havens, but now their are tracking in opposite directions. And how do I measure them together up against the Comms? Well, all I know is that it is tough to balance the whole field into just 2 groups. It’s like…there’s a lot of factors to consider when sizing up each and every currency in the light of M vs C. But then to figure out which side will end up more than the other. See, that’s what it all comes down to. Which side will end higher.
Ok, that’s nice.
I have embarked on a different method now.
EVERYTHING IS COMMON SENSE. I mean, the answers to every problem, (even in life) will always end up being said “it only makes sense”. So, this is the only thing that makes sense to me, in finding a strategy that will be profitable. BTW…I used a very similar strategy to this before and it worked.

  1. What is the current flow? Is it to the Majors, or Comms? This is always evident in the market. Money is flowing either to risk assets or safe play assets.
  2. Draw up the strong/weak line-up in each camp.
  3. Note major and minor S/R levels.
  4. One Major against one Comm, in whatever flow is evident. (Only 15 possible pairs)
  5. Will pick the best ONE pair to trade. (Although I will have listed the pairs that I can choose from, from being most probable on down)
  6. The trade will have a take profit and stop loss on it.
  7. How many trades can I trade, in a week? Will be determined by how much am I willing to lose. (which will be evident by where the stop losses are)
  8. When to get in? Will be determined by price action around the S/R levels [B]in conjunction[/B] with where the take profit/stop losses will be.
  9. 50 pip take profit. 100 pip stop loss. *I am aware that it is a RR of 2:1, not conventional, but I had a lot of success with it in the past * (With the exception of certain pairs that have a much more volatility range, which I have each pairs weekly ranges. Those will be 100 TP, 200 SL )
  10. 200 pip levels. Meaning for every 200 pips I have achieved, I will move on to a higher position size.
  11. Starting with 10k size. Then 20k. 30, 40, etc…

I am going to get all the specifics documented on this strategy. That’s the gist of it there though.

So, to give a summary to it.
I’m gonna have to wait to see what the flow is. It unravels as the week progresses. It will be one way or the other. Majors or Comms.
I will trade one M against one C. (hopefully in the correct flow)
Looking for 50 pips ( +5% ) ///Accepting 100 pips (-10%)
The trade will run until it ends. No interfering until either profit or loss happens.
Striving for 200 pips on each position size level.
Am not concerned with doing the monthly time table. Just yet. I do have some catching up to do (with my 2yr capital building plan). So I will just take it 200 pips at a time, regardless of the time table. And hopefully catch up before, at least, this year ends.

Well Journal, there you have it. I think it’s a good plan. It only makes sense to me. I just want to roll with the market, and accomplish some goals. One trade at a time.

I have $1,000 in the account. Well, actually it’s $1,100. They give you extra.

To be continued…

Mike

Hi Journal.
(Hey Mike! Tell me you had a good start, with your new strategy)
Well…YES I DID. Let me tell you about it.
Ok, I guess I can do this now since I’m trading in such a primitive style. Here’s the trading log this past week.



And there’s the account balance also. It’s all about the ‘EQUITY’ number.

Ok, so this is what went down. First off, guess who’s dominating now? Yep, the Majors. It’s the turn around I’ve been waiting for, at least 2 months now. Well, I guess the market just takes it’s time doing what it’s gonna do. And that also tells me that the trends last longer generally speaking. Ok, more specifically, that the Comms can trend for a good amount of time. ‘Live and learn’
So, I am finally seeing this. And the only trades I will enter is a Major over a Comm. And I think it started on Tuesday. (The Comms took Monday) I got in with one trade (Tuesday am). And it didn’t take long to see where that was going. I set the TP, SL, and let it go. Then I’m seeing that there are many others doing the same thing. ‘Major domination’. I get in with another. …then another…It’s there on the log when I got in.
Basically 3 before I went to work that morning. Then one more about an hour later after I was at work.

They all took profit that day. Man was I happy. That means I accomplished the first level (10k) that day. Which is enough for a months’ goal. In one day! And to recap, I look for 200 pips on every level. But, I’m not minding the time factor now, have some catching up to do (like 4 months worth!) .
See, the absolute most important thing for me is to achieve my 2 yr goal. (which has been laid out $ wise)
(But Mike, isn’t the more important thing for you to be concerned about is protecting the account?)
Yeah, good point. It is. But I’m trying to convey to you about how important my 2 yr plan is to me, that’s all.
That’s why I’m keeping those figures in sight until the 2yrs is up.
So, back to the story. I accomplished level one. And now on to level 2. Which is 20k position size. And all I’m gonna do is the same thing. 50 pip take profit, 100 pip stop loss on every taken trade. I’m stacking the cards to make it happen. So, as the Majors are tearing the Comms apart on Wednesday also, I get another one going. That was successful. I’m on my way on level 2 now. Then another one on Thursday, I got into. That was a Comm day, so that did take, but it took a little longer, which came true on Friday morning. What a great thing to wake up to that day! But I have to admit, I was a little scared. I made the take profit a little lower, 42.4 pips (instead of 50). And that’s because of the level it would get down to. I thought it could be a bounce there. Well, in hindsight, I guess that just didn’t matter. Boy did it dive down past it! That was the AUD/JPY. What has been protecting me is this Major domination. It is happening!
So, then comes NFP Friday. (I guess I have to talk about it because you see that last trade there in the log). My plan was to see how the USD does after the employment data comes out. The CAD has theirs also.
That was the trade to watch. And to make that a short story, I broke even. I was gambling. I admit it. That’s not my game. I shouldn’t be doing that. I have a plan and need to stick to it. I’m not day trading yet.
I should stick to the plan. When I get in, set it and forget it.
Well, bottom line is I was successful this week. And things are moving in the right direction.
I need to stick to the plan.
Well, I altered my trading account table. This is what I’m following. You can see what my original $ goals are, in order to achieve my 2 yr plan. If I achieve that, I cannot possibly be any happier.


To be continued.
Mike



1 Like

Hi Journal.
Well, another week in the books. And how did it go?
Good…but I’m not satisfied with myself. I mean, look, it did go good this week, but I’m starting to get really upset with myself due to a bunch of reasons. And I’m going to explain them to you. Someone needs to listen.
First off, here’s my chart, of the account.



And I made another chart. This is to keep track of my trades. (Since I’m pretty much trading one pair at a time)


So, to explain. Ok, first off, I need to bring it in from big to small, and then you should understand where this chart is going.
See, you should know by now, the most important thing going for me right now is the ‘plan’. I’m in the 2 yr capital building plan. And I need a certain amount of capital at the end of 2 yrs in order to start my own trading business. So I mapped it out. And the strategy in order to accomplish that task is broken down into monthly goals. If I meet those goals then I will be able to begin my business venture. Well, to give a summary of this year so far, this is what happened. But, ok, so, I had the first 3 months of the year being successful. I had met each benchmark in $ terms, up through March. And then comes April. That’s the month I crashed. Game over. Every single $ that I made up to that point was lost. So I had to put up more money to get back into it. There’s nothing more important to me than to become successful at this business. So, how was I gonna continue with the plan? Well, I started over, beginning in the month of May. I changed the strategy. (I’m so embarrassed that my original one is such a flawed one) And this new strategy is a good one.
I kept with the original money management plan and just started over like it was Jan. See, the MM plan is the same. I will still be working on making 200 pips (I just won’t be juggling 15 trades to do that). And after every 200 pips accrued I go onto the next level. Originally the plan is 200 pips in a months time. And after 24 months of reaching that, I will have arrived. But…now…I’m 4 months behind. So my catching up plan is just to disregard the monthly thing. No time table attached to when I should accomplish the 200 pips. It is a bit more risky. Therefore I must work harder at making this strategy work.
So, to get back to the table shown above. I am keeping track of my trades. For every 200 pips had, I am able to go on to the next level (position size). You can see I got the first level. That only took one day!!! (4 trades I placed in one day because the Majors were rolling over the Comms, and I took advantage of it).
So therefore I completed the original January’s goal. And then I moved on to Feb’s goal (level). Every trade I take it will be a 20k size. That didn’t take too long either. And then moved on to March now. That’s presently where I am at now. Every trade I take will be a 30k size. Yes, we are in the month of May, now, but I have to keep track of which level I’m on. And this is the way I’m doing it. I’m just not keeping up with the literal month that we are in. And I hope to catch up sometime soon. And eventually get back on track with the monthly time table again. Oh, if you were wondering, the blue squares mean that was a Major long, Comm short trade. And as you can see all the trades were with the Majors long. ‘Yes Journal, we are finally in the trend of the Majors over the Comms.’ (I know you got tired of hearing me say that that was gonna happen) (Geeeez…did the Comms hang on for such a long time)
Ok, so this is where I have some problems. Just look at the first level. It only took 4 trades. That’s awesome. But then look at the next level. It has taken me 6 trades. Ok, that’s nice Mike, but did you stick to the plan? Apparently not, because it was supposed to be every trade taken on it’s a 50 pip take profit/ 100 pip stop loss. Let the dog gone thing run till something hit.
So, what happened Mike?
…uh…yeah…I don’t know…probably emotions getting in the way.
Oh yeah, I know, and that’s my biggest problem now.
I NEED AN INDICATOR OF WHEN TO GET IN.
That hit me this week, big time. And, Journal, I am on it. Don’t worry. I even found it. But still working on the details.
See, for the longest time I have had such a hatred for indicators. Like 50 MA’s, lines crossing other lines, …man…I just hate lines. Because all of that stuff is nothing but history. They are lagging indicators.
So that sentiment kept me out of that arena. Well, recently I have come to the conclusion that I absolutely need something to tell me when to get in. I mean, I need something to tell me that the market is changing in a way which I see it. And that particular way is the Major/Comm battle. Which way is the market moving? Major strong or Comm strong? This is what I came up with. After looking at hundreds of indicators from my NetDania platform, I have found it. It is only what makes sense. You ready for this Journal?
MOMENTUM
Now doesn’t that make sense? ‘Everything is Common Sense’
They have a momentum indicator. So that’s what I will be using. I still have to iron out the fine details, but I think I’m getting close. I just need more time for the backtesting proof I need on that. So far I have put that on all of the 15 Major/Comm charts I have. I used the 8 period setting on the 1hr charts. I figure that should mimic somewhat how the sessions run, in a day. See, this is what I would like to know. When all of the Majors have the momentum over the Comms. And then, and only then, can I then proceed to take a trade. Which one? Well, that’s determined over the weekend when I find the strong and weak pairs.
I know Journal, I still need to get out to you exactly who…when…why…how…about the strategy.
I think when I iron out this last piece of the puzzle will I be able to give to you a formidable, specific trading plan.
Let me show you what I have so far on this indicator.


Hope you can see this. It’s the USD/CAD. One hour chart. And this was back around May 3, that’s when the Majors started kicking the Comms butts. The indicator is on the bottom. There’s a zero line. And when it goes above that line, then I know they have the momentum. So, I figure if I can find a way to see all of the 15 pairs, and those momentum numbers, I will know that I can get in a trade.
Well, I have much research to do on this, but just know that I am on it.
I need to do something, cause as you see, I am over trading. And things are starting to get out of control.
I would desire to get back to how I first started out this month. 4 trades, 4 take profits. Not 8 trades like I did this week!!! That’s nonsense.

Well, Journal, I am off tomorrow (Monday) from my day job, and I plan on getting very much done here on my business. Maybe I can report to you something good then.

Mike

1 Like

Hey Mike !

It’s been a long time since I came on baby pips.
It’s good know that you’re still sticking with your journal entries. It does help. Even the most veteran traders do keep one.

I went through what you’re going through right now few months back. With little success I had I was convinced that I was on my way to make a living just after one and a half year of trading. But it wasn’t long that I realised that I was a fool to believe so when I didn’t even have a proper protocol that puts me in and out of a trade. All I had was a pattern formation. But it wasn’t good enough if I was going to take trading for a living seriously.

So I went and looked for a new method. After again much trial and error I finally settled on one. But the fundamentals remains the same as my previous method. Its just gotten more sophisticated. But I still am learning. Getting better everyday. Trying hard not to repeat the same mistakes.

Here’s the deal Mike, don’t be too hard on yourself. We’ve only been trading for 2 years (exclude paper trading). And 2 years is nothing in fx we’ve just started. It takes much longer than that - I heard 5 years was the average. We have to have a realistic goal. Timing is essential. And you are very right to say that those lines come in very handy in determining the right times to get in and out of a trade. You just have play with them and use those that works for you. I personally use MAs. Without them I wouldn’t know exactly when to get in. Trading 10sec charts I can’t do without them. On TF I have also read a good argument that lower TFs are much less random than longer TFs. So you may also want to keep on an eye on lower TFs when you’re timing your entry.

Hi Journal.
Hey Doc! Wow, so good to hear you again! Man, I miss you buddy! I do appreciate the stop in. Thanks for the update and everything. And of course I agree with everything you said. But…man…was I happy to see you. See, all this is good, that we keep in touch, cause one of these days down the road I can look back and see where I have come from. I’m sure your in the same boat I am, in that I will not settle for anything less than to be successful in this business, no matter how long it takes. And thanks to BabyPips, we are able to document the journey. So, as long as the world keeps turning, I will continue to get better. This will be a good story.
So thanks Batchimeg for stopping in and saying hello. Please keep in touch. I will ALWAYS be here.

So…Journal…where are we at? To summarize, good but with much discontent. Yeah, I fumbled my way through with making a few more pips, but it’s not using a formidable strategy. It bugs me to death. I am working on it though. It is taking some time. Oh, that’s right, I did mention that it has to do with an indicator. Momentum. Well, I did make some progress with that. I will explain a little bit more on that, but something else happened that really changed things. That’s what I want to talk more about this week. It’s a game changer.
Ok, so this is what happened. First off, you need to know something about me. Well, I think you know that I am all about the numbers. What does that mean? I have spent countless hours tallying up daily figures, weekly and monthly. See, for the past solid 3 yrs, there is nothing I have been more committed to than to know what has happened in the market. And that all boils down to adding up the daily numbers. I watch 28 different pairs of currencies. I could tell you anything possible about how one pair has compared to another on any given day. I have gotten so used to doing that, that it became my security blanket. It made me feel in touch with the market. I have always thought that knowing the sentiment of the market (via seeing how much one currency is stronger than another) will help me, somehow, with my trading. You know, feeling the flow, seeing the turns, and most importantly having it all documented so that at any time I can go back and do some studies on that data. Well, I still believe that. But something happened this weekend. And I couldn’t tell you how, but, I lost a good bit of data on my Excel sheets. See, my computer went through an update or something, and next thing you know, I lost about 3 days of data. This week. On my Excel sheets.
Do you know how long that will take me to go back and do? Let me tell you, it will take a long time. About 6 hours. And then in order to get through this weekends data, that’s another, at least, 5 hours. And guess what…time doesn’t stop. The days will be coming and going, and I will be spending way too much time trying to catch up. Needless to say, I was overwhelmed. I went through such turmoil in my psychological state. This is what I was used to doing. It made me feel good. Not just for a few months, for 3 years! That’s a long time. How many days does that amount up to? A lot.
But, I do realize that the process was not too efficient. I just could not find a better way to accomplish that task any better. I did think of embarking on becoming a programmer. To come up with a program set in place where every day the data is being calculated and saved to which I could always go back and study, would be ideal. But, I don’t have the time to learn programming. I mean, I have even contacted a couple of sites to see if they could do that for me, for a price. I got no where.
I have also realized that I am a slave to the cause. I mean, what’s more important. Documenting the market…or my business. Yeah, the one has to do with the other, but not necessarily. The strategy can come via that data, but also from the charts themselves. But my business is most important. That consists of working out a good strategy, and plan. I, almost daily, ask myself if I am working on my business. I don’t wake up at 2:30 am for nothing. I want it to count. But what I have been doing is working on the market. That is not precisely my business plan. There is a difference. Calculating the numbers is not incorporated into my strategy. I spend way too much time doing that.
So, the last straw has just broke the camels back. This past weekend I have not accumulated the weekly numbers. For the absolute first time. On one hand, I feel that I have lost my best friend… Naked… Incomplete… Just lost.
On the other hand, I feel a burden lifted. Like I’m free from something. Not enslaved. Having a whole lot of time to do something MORE constructive.
Well, I better come up with something. Cause this is my life. And I at least need to know what has happened in the market. So, I have boiled it all down to ONE table. Its a lot of good, most important data that I need. Also it revolves around my strategy (which is still being developed).
I am running out of time here. So I will show you the table. You won’t understand it. It needs to be explained. But the bottom line is this. It’s the 15 pairs that I deal with only. Majors against the Comms. This is documenting the ‘momentum’ indicator. The setting is 3. The time frame is daily. So, all the numbers in the box’s is that number. It looks like a calendar for every pair. 5 trading days in a week, M through F. At the end of every currency is the total. And at the bottom right is the Majors/Comms totals, in the calendar.

Must run.




Mike

2 Likes

Hi Journal! How’s it going?
…Oh yeah…Good! (your always in good spirits, thanks) …Therefore, guess what? I want to talk about YOU instead of me, for a minute. It’s about time to get to know who you are. I mean, we both come in here and all you do is listen to me. Sure, it’s good for me. You know that I need someone to talk to about this stuff. No one else gives me the attention that you do. And I deeply appreciate it. But, see Journal, I want to be like you. I want to be smart. Money wise, and Market wise. I want to become you. You are independent. And have a very successful operating trading business. You have made provisions for your future. First off you have definitely made it possible to stay in business for some time to come, no matter what happens in the market. The way you trade is smartly. You can tell, by the way you trade, that all your doing is storing up security for the future. Your a master at managing risk. You don’t leave much to chance. And you have been around for such a long time that when it comes to the market, frankly there is not much that will surprise you. If things would go haywire in the Market, you know that it’s possible. Sure you would raise an eyebrow, but because of how you have taken precautions, how you have it all set up, on the way you trade (your plans and strategies in place) your business would still be in good shape. You are interested in growing the business. For you are not afraid. Of the market. For all of the things that can go wrong there, you are smart enough to have made provisions already that you protect you. And you are not afraid of losing. You understand that it is just part of the business. I guess what keeps you cool about it is that losing is expected. You know it’s gonna happen, and therefore do not get irritated about it. And your emotions. Geeez. Let’s talk about that. You are not a rock. You do have personality. You are a human who feels the highs and lows emotionally. But you are so confident. You do not operate out of an emotional state. I guess you’re just doing the smart choices. It really is all about securing your future trading. I guess for all the risk involved in your business, you see the most important aspect most of all, the health and future of your business. It’s your baby. You don’t ponder how much money you have. Your not trying to get there any more quicker. Your just one cool cat just enjoying what you have. And making sure it will last. By striving to become better and smarter than those on the other side of the coin.
So, look Journal, stay with me. Cause I want nothing more than to be you.

I do have much I want to get out to you. And don’t worry. I will. I have a lot of time on my hands coming up this week. I’m off of work (day job) for the entire week. Vacation. Yipppeee. And we don’t have much plans on tap. Except for me, and my business. Don’t worry…2:30am (every morning) will still come around and you will find me working very hard on it all.
I’ll be back shortly to tell you how things went this past week. Was good. And slightly disappointing also.

Mike

1 Like

Hey Journal. I’m back.
Well, this week was interesting. In fact, every week is. This is what happened.
Well, I only have eighty more pips to go on this level. The ‘March’ level. 30k level. The position sizing I’m at until I can move on. And yes Journal, I am aware of the most important aspect of my business right now, which is to come up with a formidable, very particular and detailed strategy. I am getting closer. I can prove it to you. I promise you that before the end of this coming week, I will have it completed. I will have hours upon hours of enough time to do it.
So, in the meantime, the market kicks off. And, for as much as I hate myself for being this way, I trade. I know my plan is not completed yet. So what am I supposed to do? I guess I am playing reckless. I mean, I do look at the data that I do compile now. It’s not a whole lot, but it does tell me the market sentiment. And I guess I am looking for opportunities. Forgive me Journal!! But, listen to what happened.
I waited through Monday. It was Tuesday sometime. I got in on with the Majors, over the Comms. And I did good. 50 pips made (EUR/AUD). And 50 pips made (GBP/NZD). And then as they were about to take profit, I got in with the USD over CAD. So, I was sitting on +100 pips for the week. And I only needed 80 to go on to the next level. But it was at that point when the USD/CAD was open. I was watching that pretty closely. Cause I didn’t want to blow it. I was up a good bit, but things started to turn. Naturally right? The only thing on my mind was I couldn’t go below -20 pips on that open trade. See, I was at work when it was going down. Literally. Kept checking my I-phone app with my broker. So, that’s what happened. I jumped out exactly at -20 pips. So, that kept me at +80 pips for the week. And that meant I go on to the next level. 40k position sizing. Yeah, that’s 4$ a pip, every pip. I mean, I’m not scared of it. Although I bugs me to death that I can’t come up with the system I am wanting, fast enough. Well, it took a day, then I was back in the game.
Went with the GBP/AUD. And guess which way? The Comm strong. Well, that ended up a disaster. I jumped out at just about -100 pips (90 something). Ok, I am learning something though. I just cannot be looking at the account size ($'s). I need to concentrate on the PIPS. Cause with 4$ a pip as a position size, well, that makes the account move a whole lot more, than what I’ve been used to. So, my account drops very much.
So, I go on to take a couple more trades. During this time, I feel that I am just reckless. I mean, there is no construction method to my trades. I will post the ‘trades’ table at the end. Well, I end up with -162.4 pips in the hole. I have just started a new level, and there I go and do some really dumb stuff. So I realize that I’m behind now. I did keep it together. Honestly. I am still using my time mostly with figuring out the new strategy. The week is over the hump by now, and the market is still moving and breathing. Then, again recklessly, I get in on more trades. 2 of them. This time with the GBP. The GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. I mean, I was seeing that happening. It wasn’t a guessing game. I try to be in touch with the market as much as possible. And those trades just was taking off. In the correct direction. UP. It was an all day thing. Sure, I was happy seeing pip after pip accumulate. At the end of the day I did take profit, before Asia took over.
And believe me, all I was doing that day was adding up the total pips from both of those trades. And comparing that to what I was down by. So, when I was about there, I jumped. Phew!!! Wow, did I get back into it. Ok, so now I was at the beginning again. --This time Mike, don’t blow it!!!–Well, it was Friday now. Back at break even. Starting my new level over again. Well, it’s like a disease. I was watching the news about the USD. And lately my pair of choice has been the USD/CAD. I mean, nowadays it’s all about the USD. And if you don’t know about it, the CAD has been on such a ride on up. Thanks to mister Oil.
Well, for many reasons, I jumped in on that trade. Friday. And what a roller coaster. Come on USA Up…Down…Up…down… You know, the whole intraday battle. (It’s such an evil) Well, it didn’t end all that well. I lost some. And got out of it before the week ended.
I guess it’s not all that bad, when I consider the pips instead of the account balance.
So, I guess I’m not in all that much trouble. But, it still is eating me alive to have not come up with the way I want to really trade. I cannot believe how long this is taking me. Maybe I am a perfectionist. But I do know that I am getting closer and closer.
Well, it’s Sunday evening now. The market is moving. And I am not even gonna look at it. Cause I will get drawn in, and do something stupid. I will wake up early. And continue to figure out my plan.
Oh, wait, it’s a holiday tomorrow. Memorial Day. Ok, so the market won’t be moving all that much. That’s good.
But, in any case, I’m on vacation. Not working…but will be working alright. On my business. I am going to make every minute count the best I can. As long as I can stay awake. I hate myself for dozing off just too much, when I can be getting something accomplished.

Look Journal. Since I am a free man, not carrying this weight of tracking the market for so long, and I have so much more time to concentrate on more important stuff, I will be in touch with you more often. Especially this coming week. Your gonna be proud of me. I will accomplish as much as I can. And I plan on explaining it all to you.
So, here’s some data for you.
We’ll be in touch.



Mike

1 Like

Hi Mike
I haven’t everything so may have missed it if you did state it. A few questions for you.
Are you using SL on every trade?
Are you adjusting SL more and more into the green if your trades move in your favour?
Are you entering more trades before existing trades have moved in your favour? (Are you adding to loosing positions?)

HI Journal!
Hey Mike! Well, how was your vacation this week? I’m very curious of what you’ve been up to, regarding your business. Did you accomplish what you wanted this week, like you said?
Well Journal, you should know me by now. I did have very much time to get some things done. And I took advantage of every minute I could. Look, me and the wife didn’t really go anywhere this week. But, each day, we did venture out and made the most of a day. She was not cooking this week. So we found nice places to eat everyday. We just really took it easy. See, we’re workers. Responsible, reliable, dedicated, very hard working kind of people. And when it comes time for our vacation, all we want is to NOT work. We don’t care about going anywhere far away and such. It’s just not the time now. Our kids are just about on their way out.
In fact, just yesterday we went to our daughters’ high school graduation. And now we are down to only one more child. In one years time, from now, we won’t have kids in school anymore. So the point being, in a few more years (hopefully) we should be childless. You know, time to leave the coop, and get on with their own lives. And that’s when our lives will start. Anew. And that should be around the time when my business will be up and running. Then…life will change for us. That will be the time of life, for us, when we can start taking real vacations. You know, like a cruise. In fact, we talked about it, that is what we want for our first real vacation. Ok,… yeah, …that’s nice. You get the point now right Journal? In anycase, this past week was very relaxing, but, you better believe I was up early everyday. Journal…I never worked so hard on my business, than this week. There are many reasons for that. First off, the main thing that kept going through my head was our last conversation together. See, I promised you that I would come up with a plan, strategy, by the end of the week. That is an important character of mine. ‘True to my word’. So therefore, yes, I was on it. And the other biggest reason why I could have done that, is because I am not weighted down anymore with ‘running the numbers’. (I’ve been wanting to tell you this for a couple weeks now Journal). I mean, I knew I was spending sooooo very much time with the figures of the market. And it did take hours to do. And it doesn’t help that I’m a creature of habit. I won’t stop. I can be so dedicated to something, it ain’t even funny. It made me feel good accomplishing that, but never produced results in my trading.
See, normally, tragedy must strike in order for me to realize that I’m doing something not too smart. There are better and easier ways of doing things. So, my point there is, I have had so much more time available to concentrate on the most important aspect for me now. Finding the strategy. You would have been proud of me Journal. I mean, the fervency that I went through is amazing.
Nice Mike! I am! So, what did you uncover, accomplish?

Well, after so much writing stuff down on paper, notes like crazy, this is it. I will give it to you up front, and then explain it.
3 EMA/// 8 EMA. I fully believe, now, that this is what I’ve been missing for such a long time now.
Journal, I know your aware of all that stuff, but I know I must explain it enough that a child can understand it.



From big to small here we go. That chart set up right there is my most important view of the market. The top row (and across) is all of AUD. The middle row is NZD. Bottom row is CAD. The first column down is the USD. 2nd column is JPY. 3rd is CHF. 4th is EUR. And last column is GBP. This is really the only way I look at the market. It tells me pretty much all I need to know, in regards to how I am trading. All in one view!
Yeah, before, I thought it was important to see each and every 28 pairs. I was wrong. This view tells me about whether risk is on, or off. Who’s the stronger within each camp. If I want to know what the Majors are doing, I will be concentrating on the columns (top to bottom). If Comms, then will be looking at the rows (across). And so, I need a little bit more perspective also. So, I have a total of 3 tabs. That tab right there is the ‘daily’ tab. I have a ‘4hr’ tab, and ‘1hr’ tab. It all looks the same, except for the time frame.
You know, putting it all into a time perspective is very important. Especially in how I am trading.
Yeah, that’s nice, but now, I have found a way to trade. You know I have been searching for an indicator. And after sooooo much research on the hundreds of them out there I uncovered this. I have to give credit to those teachers out there (on the web) who put it all out there and have their web sites dedicated to teaching forex. Well, I kept coming back to one particular persons website. He’s called the ‘The Forex Guy’. He does a good job explaining all of the different indicators. And I appreciate his work. But it’s funny, that at the end of EVERY one, he always says, ‘it’s such nonsense’. ‘You really don’t need any indicators because Price Action is really the only thing you need.’ Look Journal, I have read a lot on Forex. And I have subscribed to that mentality, since my beginning. Everything is nothing but a lagging indicator because it’s just plotting the history of price. And price doesn’t always do what it did in the past. Ok…yeah,…so what I found was very interesting was that that guy ‘Forex Guy’ ALWAYS said at the end of his write-ups was how the way he trades. He does not use any indicators. EXCEPT that he uses 2 EMA’s. (Exponential Moving Average). Well, in my mind, that is an indicator. Maybe I was wrong, but I used to think that anything on the chart was one. So bottom line is he uses only Price Action and 2 EMA’s. I couldn’t find out which one’s, but I knew then that I had to find out for myself which ones would work best for me. I brought back some memories of things that I have read in the past. And it struck me that someone (wow, I just remembered where I read that, it was in a book, ‘Trading for Dummies’) used 2 EMA’s that were on the small side.
I won’t go into the reasons, but I do believe these are the best for my trading time table. And now my eyes have been opened. When these are plotted on the chart, it does tell me about the flow. You know, when you see the 3 EMA, it rides pretty close to the actual price. It actually is the average of the last 3 candles, exponentially added up. And the 8 EMA is the average of the last 8 candles. So, when the 3 EMA is above the 8 EMA, that means it’s trending high. And if it’s below the 8 EMA, it is trending low. And now I have, at an instant, the flow (aka trend). Which ever currency follows the 3 EMA, is trending high. And the way I have my chart set up, I can pretty quickly see the Major/Comm flow. Not only that, this gives me a signal!!
Of when to get in, and when to get out. The signals will be when they cross over. The cross overs indicate a change of flow. But…I still need more, in the way of perspective. That’s why I have everything in either the Daily, 4 HR, or 1 HR time frames. My rules pretty much follow this. I will only be in a trade when it’s trending high on the daily time frame. So that will be the function of the Daily time frame. Whether or not I will consider that pair. (I do keep a daily track of these 15 pairs. I will show my table later). Then the function of the 4 HR time frame will be to tell me if I can get in or not. Because see, price can be trending high on the Daily but not on the 4 HR. The 3 EMA will have to cross over the 8 for me to be able to get in.
And the reason why I have the 1 HR time frame is to better help me get in at the best time. But I pretty much will be concentrating on the 4 HR one. For entries. And I do realize that I must wait till the candles close. I have done much looking back (if you want to call it backtesting)…ok…for the entire month of May, every 4 hrs how much did the 3 cross the 8. On every pair. And it’s like up around 90% of the time there is one cross over. To generalize it, it’s like this. If the pair is trending strongly, there will not be a cross over. If it’s consolidating, there will always be one cross over (that’s out of a possible 6 candles, 4 hours each candle, one cross over). And yes, I do keep track of that also. I’ll show you that chart. Whoa Mike, don’t be getting crazy on those charts, like you were. Yeah, I know, and that’s why I only have 2 charts that I have. That’s better than 7. Geeeez. I’m such a dummy. Oh well, live and learn… And get old.

Well Journal, I think I’m exhausting this post. I do have much more I want to tell you. But here is what I’ve been talking about. Look.

This is the AUD/USD. Daily time frame. So, the AUD is the yellow (3 EMA). It finally crossed over the 8 EMA.



Here’s the 4 hr chart. I can see that there has been some indication that the AUD has been wanting to turn the flow. And sure enough, NFP Friday made it clear.

And this is one of my 2 tables that I keep track of. It’s the data from May. Someday I’ll explain it. But, believe me, it tells me who is trending high. Blue squares are Major trending high. Pink is Comm high. Inside the squares are the 4hr crossovers. The first letter is the state of the start and the end letter (either Major or Comm) is the ending state, trending high only. So any letter means who is trending high.


We’ll be in touch Journal!
Mike

1 Like

Hi Journal. How’s it going?
Hey Mike! There you are! Woah…Mike…what’s with the long face. Talk to me. I’m here for you.
Man Journal…I just can’t do it…
Ok…this is just between me and you. I know your a completely understanding person (entity). You’ve been there. You’ve experienced the lows. The highs. And everything in between. In fact, there is nothing you haven’t been through, to have get where you are now.
*That’s right Mike. There are a lot of lessons to be learned in this business. And if there is one thing I know, it’s that you are going to learn these things also. It’s not easy. But I know you can do it Mike!
So, right now, talk to me. Slow down. Think about what’s been going on, and tell me.

----Deep Breath------

Ok. Well, I guess what’s been going on is that I’m still trading, at the same time still trying to figure out my strategy. I still can’t believe I haven’t figured this out yet. I thought the whole plan was to have it all done by the time I went live. Then execute it. And just continue on with what I know works. Well, I now know, that that is not reality. What was I thinking. Ok, maybe that should be the plan, but, now I know then, that I went live too early. Man…3 yrs…to early? Ok…so be it. But, I can tell you one thing. Going live surely didn’t teach me anything new from when I was demoing. Psychologically speaking. I have taken this seriously from day one, and nothing new has changed for me. That’s complete nonsense, when I hear people say ‘Oh, you will surely learn how to trade when you go live, as opposed to demo’. Uh…nope! Not for me anyway. It’s not about my feelings ruining me. It’s about not having an acceptable strategy in place!! See, I think that’s the whole purpose of a strategy. If it’s a good one, all you have to do is execute it! Where is there room for feelings? I mean, it’s supposed to go like this. ‘There is the enter signal, get in. There is the exit signal, get out. Follow the MM rules already in place. Keep track of the strategy’s performance. And alter if need.’ Emotions have no factor when coming up with the plan. It’s mostly technical. Ok. It’s ALL technical.

Sorry Journal. Anyway. That’s where I am at. I’m still trying to figure out a good system. But I just can’t help trading in the mean time. And guess what I am figuring out? Yes. Emotions definitely come into play when there is not a defined entry and exit plan. I am so aware of that, it’s not even funny. And I’m sure my goal oriented mind is not helping matters. Cause I want so very badly to be somewhere close to my timeline. I’m in the middle of the 2 yr capital building process. And time is flying by so quickly. And I still don’t have the plan yet!
Ok, so let me tell you where I am at with what I got so far. For sure, 2 weeks ago, I did make a huge leap in the process. The 3 and 8 EMA is definitely a good thing. But, now I am realizing I still need more to it.
I mean, it is very beneficial by telling me who’s trending in the different time frames. I’ve been (and still am) developing the perspective of all the time frames. I started out with only looking at the 1hr, 4hr, Daily time frames. But recently I realized that I need more perspective. I should have known. Why did I not go any higher? Everyone knows, you have to have the complete picture. From big to small. And I was thinking that the Daily time frame is big? Uhhh…no. More like the monthly time frame is what’s big. But I thought that I should keep with what ever time period I am trading with. Yeah, true, but still, I need to know what trends have been in place in each time period. So now I have the monthly, weekly, daily, 4hr time frames that I keep track of. Ok, that’s nice. But still, what angle am I going to take? The trend. Sure. No brainer. But that’s a pretty broad statement. But I need to ask myself where do I want to get in on the trend. The beginning? Or after it has started? Or how about a new trend, like a turn around? (Tops and bottoms).

Well Journal, man, I am running out of time here. See, this is what I really want to be talking to you about. I need to get out to you what I’ve been thinking in terms of this developing strategy I’m on. And I’ve been wanting to explain many of the things I have been learning about this system also.

Surely the answers are in me (in you Journal).
I only spend time trying to figure this out, (and that explains why I am not in touch with you a lot lately) but, now maybe if I talk to you about it more it can be revealed.

I’m coming back to you Journal.

Mike

1 Like

Hey Journal.
Well, it looks like we’re gonna be spending a lot of time together now.
*Mike, what’s going on? *
Well, yesterday, it happened. The account is gone. I’m done. It is over. AGAIN.
I mean, look, one just cannot trade without a plan in place. The account dropped so low, and all it took was one more stupid move, and the market just swallows you up.
I been going through such psychological turmoil lately. Yesterday. And I got to get out to you what’s been going through my head. I mean…man!!! This is embarrassing! How can I let my account drop so much? So quickly. It just bugs me to death. I even marked down my account balance (on my table), and told myself not to trade for a while. I was up to like $2,200. That’s from coming back from being down very, very much. I got very lucky and made a huge comeback. But, how stupid can I be, to let that dissipate so quickly… nod,nod,nod
Well, I’m tired of thinking about how I felt. Journal, I have got to move on. We need to get to the present. There’s very much on my mind now.
But, first off, this is what’s going to happen.
In order for me to trade anymore, I need to put more money into the account. And guess what? I’m not going to!!! I am so tired of giving my money away. This is absolute nonsense. I’m going back to demo. I thought about it. Why continue on? When all I’m going to do is the same thing? I’m going to think that I have a good plan, by putting a few pieces together and hope for the best. I need to get smart. I mean, really smart.
It’s like I’m starting over again. And does it make any sense for me to play live? Absolutely not. Why lose real money when all I’m doing is trying to figure out what is gonna work?
:44:
Ok. Look. This is the only question I need to answer. Will a system work? I need proof. Show me.
See, this was my original plan back in 2013. It’s the only thing that makes sense. I’ve always said…‘Everything (in life) is common sense’. Humans just operate that way. So, I guess I must get back to the plan, and start over.
See, when I think about it, it’s not about making money. (In the sense of getting rich or wealthy). It’s about becoming successful.
Winning.
Growing my business.

Journal, I am going to use you. We need to figure this out. And I plan on pulling all of the answers out of you! Get ready to go to work.
I must start fresh on the next post. We will not stop until every single detail is laid out.

I’m not playing around anymore.
Mike

2 Likes

Ok Journal, here we go.
Come on. Ask me some important questions. From the top.
Ok Mike.
What is your goal? I mean, give it to me straight. What’s the most important thing we are doing here?
What is it that you want to achieve?

I want my own trading business.
I want to start it Jan 2018.
In order for that to come true, I need the starting capital. 50k.
I figure I would trade my way to it. And I would gain the experience that I need along the way. Cause if I can achieve that, then it would mean I have gained the knowledge necessary to begin my business. Sure, there’s other ways to get the starting capital, but the question would still remain, ‘Am I capable of operating a trading business’ ? Accomplishing this task would be the proof. For myself. And for others, possibly.

*Ok. I understand. Let’s see. You want to trade your way to get the capital. But, there are different ways to trade. Trading for capital is different than trading a business. When you trade a business, you are more concerned about your capital than anything. Because without it, you don’t have a business. You will protect that with your life. That will require much risk management. And therefore will be evident in your strategies. Conservative will be your middle name. But, you will be trading for capital. That’s different. That will require more risk. There are 2 things that you can lose. The capital, of course. And time. The more conservative you are, the longer it will take. *

  • But, there are unknown factors that we’re dealing with here also Mike. It’s the possible amount of money you are able to make in the market. And also the probability of making it. And that, my friend, will be up to you. The smarter you are, the better the possibilities. See, you know the rules already. The broker will pay up when you have picked the correct trade. Numbers don’t lie. So, it’s gonna be up to us to come up with the plan to follow, execute, and watch the profit grow. *

Ok Journal. I must run now. But I promise you, we will figure this out. I’m gonna pull this out of you, one way or another.
We need to start talking strategy.
Daily!

Looks like the journey is only beginning.
Mike

Good morning Journal.
:44:
Well, I’m off to a late start this morning. Sorry. I couldn’t wake up. So, I only have a little over an hour now.
But don’t worry. Tomorrow is Friday. And I’m off. And I plan on spending the entire day with you. We have so much work to do it’s not even funny.
Ok Journal, where are we gonna start?
*Well Mike, get out a piece of paper and pencil and let’s start from the top. *
Actually Journal, talk about taking it from the top, I was thinking yesterday. We need to talk about the first issue. Ok, probably the most important issue. Which is this.
50k. Ok. There’s no arguing that point. That is how much I will need to start the business. But, what about the [I]when[/I] factor? Am I wrong in stating that I want to have it all completed by 1/1/2018? We both know we shouldn’t be putting any kind of time table on the market. I was thinking that I could be making a big mistake from the beginning here by setting that date. Sure, it’s not all that close at hand now? You would think that it could be attainable. But look at what happened to me so far this year? I’m 6 months into the 2 yr process, and I’m starting back over again. For the second time!!! And the reason why I’m saying that it might be a mistake, is because that would be where I would start. I would draw up the goals. Like this. 50k, 18 months. Now without compounding the numbers it would be this. $2,777 a month, every month for 18 months. But the point is that’s where I naturally want to start from. Breaking it all down to the month. And this gives me the idea of how much the strategy needs to attain. Theoretically speaking.
See Journal, I would rather find out what I need to get, instead of trying to figure out how much I can make out of the market. Or for that matter, finding out how much a strategy can produce. You know I’m not about trying to make it rich.
*Yes Mike, I agree. It is most prudent to know what you want to get out of the market. I mean, think about the only possibilities here. Your after either: the maximum amount of what a [I]strategy[/I] can give, the maximum amount the [I]market[/I] has possible in it, or a [I]set amount[/I] that you decide on (in a given month, % wise). The general consensus % wise is something like 7% monthly return. And that’s with a sufficient amount of capital consistently every month (avg). *
*So Mike, the point we need to get down here is this. Do we stick with boxing in that date? I mean, you have had that in your mind for quite some time now. That is going to require added pressure to your strategy, and psychological state. And now even more because we’re down to 18 months, instead of 2 full years. *
Journal…listen to me…maybe I have never articulated this to you. But guess what? [B]I do not want to be turning wrenches anymore[/B]. Look buddy. It’s been 18 yrs now. This was a mistake. I was not born to be a mechanic. I have decided that by the time I’m 50 yrs old, I want to be done in this business. I remember thinking, 3 1/2 yrs ago, that I have 20 more yrs to go till retirement era. And I refuse to continue doing this profession any longer. It was at that time that I found out who I was. And the journey began.
*Ok Mike. I understand. Then we need to run the numbers to see if it’s feasible. We’ll have to modify your original system and then see if we can come up with a strategy to accomplish it. *
Well, Journal, honestly, I was thinking yesterday that maybe I do need to change my thinking. Begin with the strategy. Concentrate on accomplishing it. Having some compounding effect into it. And just see where it takes me. And when I can reach the 50k amount, that’s when it will be time to jump.
Man…that’s a hard pill to take. I’m a goal oriented being.

Journal, I’m out of time now.
So, it looks like it comes down to one of 2 things. Everything hinged on: a strategy, or a goal.
A strategy to accomplish my goal.
Or hope a strategy can produce good enough results in a reasonable amount of time.

See ya soon buddy.
Mike

Good morning Journal!
Today is going to be a good day. So, let’s get to work and really get to figuring things out. At the end of the day today, I’m hoping for a real break through. Or at least, by the end of the weekend. Let’s hope.

So, where are we at now? Uh, oh yeah, where’s my piece of paper and pencil. Man…blank. Time to get this thing filled out.
*So Mike, talk to me. Tell me what’s been going through you head. You’ve been kind of solidifying some things? See, I know you. You have been thinking. Your always thinking about the business. Give it to me straight, and let’s see if we agree together. *

Yeah Journal. Some things I just cannot budge on. After much thought, I keep coming back to how much I liked my original plan. But, it was an incomplete one. And now I have to complete it. There’s no reason why I shouldn’t be able to. Here we go. I’ll explain.

I need something to follow. A goal. Mapped out. And then figure out the means to accomplish it. Making provisions for any and all deviations from it. I cannot leave anything to chance. Therefore what I am saying is that I need to come up with the plan (the $ path to the goal) and then the trading strategy to accomplish it.
So, let me look at the original plans and alter them. Now. And I will be back with it.

Ok. This is what I got. Take a look.


It’s modified from the original. But that’s the best I can do. Considering the time factor. I pushed it to 20 months. And the beginning would be starting in July. Journal, we got a lot to talk about.
But, as I was putting all of that together, it does get scary. I mean, look at the position sizing. I will end up being in the 2 standard lot sizes by the end. Yikes. Oh, and just to clarify, the position sizing goes like this.
For example, the 30k size basically means $3 dollars a pip. So it would be 200 pips accrued times $3 equals $600. That will give the beginning account balance. Then 40k equals $4 a pip. And 200 pips accrued times $4 a pip will equal $800. And that’s added to the beginning account balance to get the ending balance. So, that’s how the whole table is calculated. But…my point was how scary it gets down to the bottom. I mean, when I’m playing with $20 a pip, oh man…But also, my account will be able to handle it. So I guess it’s all relative.

*Mike, Mike, Mike…let me step in here. The voice of reason for ya. That is a good plan. Sure, you need this. But this is the market you’re dealing with. Nothing is guaranteed. There is the down side to it you know. You can lose just as much as you can win. *

Hey Journal…I got to take a time out now. Things going on in the house right now. People up and getting ready for work. I will come back and address this point.

Much, much work to do, me and you.
Give me a minute.

Mike

Hey Journal…
I’m back for now.
Ok. Look. I’ll try to explain myself on your points. But I simply can’t make lengthy rationalizations about them, cause we have so much to do in so little time. I’ve made up my mind on a lot of things. Your job is the voice of reason. Most common logic. Most common sense. And my memory. And my experience.
Yeah, ok, that’s nice.
I choose this method. Compounding. It’s the only way. The one thing that is constant every month is the amount of pips I need to accrue. So, that is what I’m basing my strategy on. I mean, come on. Is it attainable? Each and every month? 200 pips. Everything is hinged upon that fact. In fact, [B]everything[/B] I’m trying to accomplish is hinged upon this one little feat. My end goal, which is my business to begin. 50k will happen. Leaving my job will happen because of it. What I’m trying to say is that this is the most important, bottom line, fundamental aspect. So, this will be what everything is based upon. The strategy. This will have to be developed with that in mind. Look, is this possible? Well, sure it is possible. Can I do it? Well, that’s to be seen. But, experience has shown me that I can get 200 pips in less than a day, let alone in a months time. Consistency is the key factor though. And that’s what I have got to get a handle on.
So, what are the total possible outcomes? There are only 3. I can get exactly 200 pips (purposefully). I can end up getting more. Or I can end up getting less. I’ve struggled with this before. Because I need to make up my mind on whether to shoot for exactly 200 and stop. Which is different than striving for more, which encompasses the risk of losing more also. And this needs to be determined before I choose what kind of strategy to use. If 200 is the top, then I won’t have the possibility of using extra pips for the following month. More risk equals more possibility.
Journal…talk to me about each of the two different methods. And what can I expect.
*Alright. Well, let’s take the first method. [B]Shoot for 200 pips only[/B]. That is the top. You will not want anymore than that. The pros. It’s your goal. If it is met, all is well. It is the most stress free method you can experience. You will have plenty of time, in a months time table, to get it done. You will not be making as many mistakes this way. Psychologically. Technically. And it also is a big factor when coming up with the strategy to use. Because of the fact of having a top, this means you will know how to use stop losses much more effectively. Managing the pips will be much easier this way. You will know how many pips to get along with how many pips you can lose. Bottom line is it’s much easier to manage your trades this way.
The cons. You will lock yourself into this limit. You cannot make any more. You won’t be able to use the cushion aspect. You possibly could be sitting out of the market for weeks at a time. If by chance you have a very high success rate (on the strategy), it will not be used to it’s full extent. You won’t be able to take advantage of a market that is obviously trending one way or another. (If that would be the case)
*And now, Mike, let me throw out the other method for you. [B]Maximumization. or Cushion[/B] method.
This method will have to be dependent upon the particular strategy. It will have to be a strategy that produces more than 200 pips in a month. The pros. You will have the opportunity to work on the following months’ pip count. You can get ahead of the game. You can even accomplish your ultimate goal quicker. It is possible, that if the strategy conforms this way, to capitalize on some real big moves the market might through out. You can reduce the risk factor by staying ahead of the benchmarks. The cons. Well, more risk equals more downside just as much. The worst thing possible (which you have tasted…drank your fill…totally experienced) is getting behind. So far behind that it’s not possible to catch up anymore. And the whole entire game is in jeopardy. Bottom line is this is the most probable outcome. You will be trading with fear. Emotions just might creep in and make you deviate from the plan. Or make changes to it. Basically getting behind will make you do things unprofessionally. *
*So, talk to me Mike. What’s been going through your mind as I have been laying it all out there for you. *
Yeah Journal, thanks, I hear you.