Hi Journal. It’s me.
First off, I would like to thank you two guys for sharing. Well, you did make me feel better. Actually it was in the sense of realizing reality. The trading business is very lonely. And when I go down, it’s good to hear (from others in the same boat) that it is what we will encounter on the journey. Well, in the beginning stages anyway. Cause I just can’t imagine me being so stupid enough to let that happen again. I mean, when I really think about it, I have all the power in the world to prevent that from happening. I do have all control over how far I should let my account fall to. There is no excuse. And I accept that. I guess (as I have told my kids over and over again) the way we really learn things in life is by experience. The hard way. (Although I always thought if they would only listen to me they can avoid the bad things from happening in life. And time and time again they just don’t.)
Ok. That’s nice. How about some lessons. That’s what I’ve been concentrating on lately. Where did I go wrong?
Well, surely I need to accept losses. See, that’s a very hard thing for me to do. It’s such a personal thing. I have gotten away, too much lately, with letting things ride and seeing them come on back for me. Sure it worked. But, now, I know that if I’m wrong, it’s the biggest price to pay. And it’s not always a guaranteed outcome (that the market will come back my way). See, journal, the kind of person I am, is this. My life can be characterized by me going all the way, one way or the other. I was taught that when I was young. It is good advise. ‘Go all the way…one way or the other’. ‘If your gonna do something, do it with all your might’. ‘Do not do things half way’. ‘I’m all or nothing…one way or the other’. I prefer to do things to the max or I don’t do it at all. And I’m my trading I prefer to set goals, and meet them, at whatever cost. I hate being in the middle ground. And look, I’m working on it. I’m aware of who I am and my shortcomings. This last week just happened to get away from me. I should have accepted the loss early on. I will start putting in fail safe guards from now on.
The other thing I wanted to know was what went wrong? Technically speaking. The market. And then it hit me. I have gotten away from seeing the thing I started out with. My excel chart #6. Ok, let me back this up some.
I realized that I was waiting for a turn. (I’m sure journal you have heard me say this over and over again).
The only thing that occupied my mind was this. ‘The Majors have to be making a come back’. I went back and looked at my notes. I was saying this very thing since the end of Feb beginning of March. Then I took a good look at my chart. I realized that my emotions are getting in the way of facts. I do admit that when I think of the Comms that they are the bad guys. But I find it very difficult to rid that in my mind. I guess I prefer the underdogs. It’s just a wonderful thing to see a comeback come true. I know very well that all those emotions should not have any part in trading. I want to be un-bias. And the best way is technically speaking. I am only dealing with 2 groups of entities. I will be either right or wrong. (I do think that’s so much better than trying to pick out a single currency stronger than 7 others) (Plus the whole world’s money will either be trying to get some risk, or not.) Anyway, what I did is look at the chart. And now I realize that this is the tell-all for my strategy. And I know that the answers are in this chart. So, I was fighting a trend. It is evident. I should have paid more attention to the big picture. I’m going to put it up.
I think I will have more of an advantage if I pay attention more to this chart. And couple with that my money management lessons. …‘Mike, get out and try again another time!!!’
Just look at the beginning of last year. Only a couple days into the year the Majors have taken off on up.
(BTW…anything moving up is Major positive/Comm negative. Likewise any line moving down is Comm positive/Major negative) This is daily pip shake out numbers between the two. So, this year is looking like last year! Then after they had their run the Comms took over and trended. Just like this year. And guess what? Their trend lasted until April 28th. Then the Majors took over for most of the spring time and summer. Look, I don’t know if history will be repeating itself again, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Now another look at the chart, closer to the present.
Each of those white dots is a Friday. And you can see how I was in the market (this last week), wanting it to go up, but it didn’t. It was all Comms. Lost everything. But see how the second to the last week I made it real good? They just didn’t break out of the trend. The Comms just continued to trend against the Majors.
Ok. So, we’ll see what happens.
I’m back in the game. I put in $500.00 dollars into my account.
I will revise my chart of the account.
More on that later.
Mike