My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

So, thanks to some smart people out there, I have a trading strategy. I think that is genius. But, here’s where I have tailored the strategy to myself. From the beginning of my history, I have always knew to keep things into perspective. Proper perspective. And this is a huge dynamic to the strategy.
Man Journal, you might remember when I first started going live, that I had a similar thinking. I think it has merit.
I’m going to be trading in different time frames.
Monthly.
Weekly.
Daily.
Even 4 hr. Time frames.
I have the system in place. All my charts will look like that, except in the different time frames. I will trade the same way, but with one slight difference. The position size. This is what I have decided. (Boy have I had to relearn money management! )
Monthly – 1% of the account.
Weekly – 2% of the account.
Daily -----3% of the account.
4 HR ------4% of the account.

I use the BP’s position size calculator. The biggest thing I need to come up with is the stop loss, to complete that calculation. I will use the purple line for that. So, when I get in, it will have to be on the correct side of that line, with a cushion of pips back to that line. Basically just far enough in, in which I will have a stop loss and also a way to calculate the position size, to get in with. Of course it’s going to be rocky at the start. Price can toggle that line for some time. Who knows how long price will stay around there. And then even to dart out in the direction I am thinking it will go. It’s not going to be easy, but I need to remember that I want to be on the correct side. And then to stay in until the run runs out.

Journal, my plan is to demo this. And I have been now, for a week. The plan is to continue to demo until I have no doubt that this is going to work. I need to experience the bad times as well as the good times. I need to work out the losses. How much am I able to lose before I can get on a lengthy ride. But most of all, I need to see this dynamic work out. And that is trading in the different time frames. Normally, when there is a major trend change occurring, it will play out, first, in the 4 HR time frame. Then proceed into the Daily. And then eventually up to the Monthly. So, I’m figuring it should be like this. I could be making money in the Monthly time frame, but it should be with such a small amount at stake. Those trades should be running for months and months at a time. Then there’s the weekly time frame trades. Those will have a little bit more on it, and to be running for weeks at a time. The reason why is because I am looking at the close of the candles more than the actual present price. I believe more in where price wants to end up, rather than where price stretches to.
So, let me show you some charts of what trades I’ve been doing so far.
Here’s EUR/AUD on the 4hr chart. So this is a 4HR trade.



If you look to the left, price was trending below the purple line. But it went above it. But, first off, I have the bias for the Comms. So, I’ve been looking for the Comms over the Majors. And this was evident on the left side. But, being on such a shorter time frame, price naturally will pop up over the line. That’s what happened there in the middle of the chart. Price shot up at an extreme high in such a short time span. That makes the yellow line move high pretty quickly. Even over the green and purple lines. But the longer trend is the purple line, which that line levels out. That gives me a good opportunity to get back in on the trend going south. That’s what I did, there at the arrows. You can see that the yellow line (short term price average) crosses over both green and purple lines. And that’s my goal, to get in as close to the purple line as possible. Man, is this working out good. So, how about the stop loss? Well, I must periodically move that because that is the purple line, and that moves a lot. I guess it’s a good thing because it seems to act like a trailing stop to some extent. So, the plan here is to ride this run on out till I get stopped out by the purple line. Now look to the left, on the chart. See how price rose up and closed above the purple line? But, the yellow line did not move up that far. It didn’t even cross over the green line. So, should I wait till price closes above the purple line? Or when the yellow line crosses over the purple line? Well, I need to remember my rule…I do not want to be on the other side of the purple line. So I choose price, and not the yellow line. I could have gotten back in on that trade. Especially when they were already lined-up.

I’ll come back with more charts.

So this is a running trade also. It’s on the Daily time frame. It’s the NZD/USD. I just bought it on the last day.


As you look left, you can see that the trend is up (Comm high). And then price comes back to support. And wants to go higher. I see that I didn’t get close to the purple line. Maybe that was a mistake. But, I am on the correct side of the purple line. And I made the stop loss at the yellow/green juncture.
Well, I’ll have to try to get it better with getting in closer to the purple line.
What else do I have going?
The EUR/NZD. 4 HR trade. But, it’s the very same thing as the EUR/AUD one.


I have the AUD/USD on the DAILY. I bought it on the last day. Top dotted line.



If you look left we can see a big trend change. Then only in the last few days price broke down below the purple line. And now it looks like it will continue on with the trend. Yeah, I did buy it not as close to the purple line as possible. Actually quite away. And my stop loss is just above it where the yellow/green met.
We’ll see how this plays out.
Well, that’s all the trades I’m in now. 4 of them, above.
But, I definitely want to through out to you what I’m looking at, at the present. Man…there are some opportunities.
And that’s what I want to do here. I want to be giving out the before trade talk. Picture. Plan. During. And after.
That should be what occupies this thread from now on.

Well Journal, I have a nice long weekend ahead. So, I’ll be back with some good stuff.

Mike

Ok Journal.
Check this out. This has my attention the most.
First off, I do keep track of the Major/Comm tilt. And lately it’s the Comms. No doubt. But, I must be aware of the Majors. I’ll show you why in a little bit.
But, here’s what I think is the most interesting thing.
CAD/CHF. In all of the time frames. I should start from out to in.
Monthly time frame. CAD/CHF.
I’m taking it out to the Crisis. Around 2007.



You can see when all 3 lines and price come together, after some consolidation, get ready for another leg. Which has been down. CHF strong. Surely we remember when the Swiss rocked the world at the beginning of last year. (Man do I remember that…watched it unravel right before my eyes)


Close up view here.
But, let’s mind what’s going on in the present time now. We have all 3 lines and price converging now. So, which way will it go? Well, look at the yellow line. It crossed up over the green line only 3 months ago. And all you have to do is look back and see that whenever all 3 plus price converge, next comes the trend. All I know is that I want to be in on it. Look…it can go either way. This could easily be at the top of a hill. …Or are we going to see the purple line turn on up??? I simply don’t know.
Let’s turn on in to the weekly time frame.


This is the weekly, from the beginning of the year. We see that the trend has been low (CHF strong) till about the middle of Feb. Then the weekly trend changed. Just look at price in conjunction with the purple line.
You know what? I think we can make the correlation to fundamentals. This is Mr. Oil against Mr. Safe Haven.
So, ok, that’s nice. What do we have here? Well, it sure looks like the purple line is acting as a major support level. But, we’re not done here, because price is not really moving out anywhere yet. All I know is that I want to be in on the move. And ride it out. Now, I’m going to have to note exactly where the end price of the purple line is, on all of the different time frames.
So, what about the DAILY time frame.


This is the daily from May 1st. This is where the purple line is leveling off, relatively speaking. Back and forth it has been going (price). But, actually, it looks like the purple line is biased to the downside. Lower highs and lower lows. Uh…well, maybe we just might be talking about a break out to the downside.
I don’t know. But, in any case, I really don’t care. Just as long as I am on with the trend (correct side of the purple). Once again, here on the Daily, we have all 3 lines and price converging also. See, I’m new in this game. I don’t know what I’m looking at here. Does this scenario happen often? Where, on all of the time frames, if they are converging, does it mean a really big, long, start of a trend? Man…I just do not know…but, I will surely find out what happens. All I’m going to be doing is remembering to be on the correct side of the trend.
I would have to say that since it makes most sense that trends happen in the short term before the long term, then this is looking to go south. If I see price breaking down below this purple line, then I must go short. Not only on the daily time frame, but the weekly, and the monthly also. Ok…so what is the price at the end of the purple line now?
Daily ----- .7505
Weekly —.7493
Monthly —.7494
And price is currently sitting at .7517 .
Ok, what is this telling me?
Price can go down…or price can go up…
Looks like UP on the daily. Because we’re almost lined-up. See. The only problem is price is in between the yellow and the green. That’s the only problem. Purple is on the bottom. Then Green. Then Yellow. Then next should be Price, for everything to be trending strongly high.
And the weekly again? DOWN. The yellow line crossed down over the green line. And the purple now. On this weekly time frame, the trend has been high, above the purple. So, in order for a down, we will have to see a change in trends, because it has been high. …Geeeeez.
Monthly again? UP. For the last 3 months price has been above the purple line. The yellow line has crossed up over the green and purple lines. Meaning in the medium term(…well, short term in the monthly time frame perspective), price has been on the rise.
Ok Journal…this is getting a little bit confusing. Bear with me. I’m trying to sort this all out.
Maybe this is all a good thing. Because remember, I just do not know where price is going to go!!!
All I need to be concerned about is getting in on the trend. And I should consider myself lucky at this point because there is a lot of converging going on. So, what do I need to remember?
See, this is what I want to do this week. Since I am at a good place (in regards to the purple line), (and it’s at the beginning of the month, and second half of the year) I want to get in on a monthly trade, weekly trade, and daily trade. Hey…what about hedging? I can get in on one going high, say the daily, and one going low on the weekly, and one going high on the monthly. !!! All with stop losses in place. Until I see what direction price wants to go.
Hmmm…
I don’t know.
Well, let’s look at the 4HR time frame. What is this telling me?

I have to switch to another post.

This is the 4 HR chart. CAD/CHF. This past entire week.



So, this is the facts. The week started out trending low. CHF strong. Then pretty shortly did the trend turn CAD strong, trending high, on the 4 HR time frame, for the entire week. Except at the end of the week, in the final hours, price has finally broken the support level. And we’re back to where we started. CHF strong.
Just look at how price ended the final 4 hrs of trading for the week. Talk about breaking out! It closed at the area where price reached out to like 5 times earlier in the week. So, now, I’m thinking that price is wanting to go low.
Wait…just wait a minute…Mike…just because it broke down, doesn’t mean it’s gonna go lower. I mean, it did end up much higher than it did at the beginning of the week. The trend was high. Maybe there was some stop huntings going on. (I don’t fully understand all that) But I have heard of price revisiting areas in which some things are happening there.
Ok. Lets take this 4HR time frame out for the last 2 weeks. Here’s the shot.


Now this is telling. How about some Price Action here huh? Talk about a support level. Where price ended up for the week is definitely sitting at a previous resistance level turned support. Now I’m thinking that we just might have a bounce up from here.

Geeeez. I’ve been talking about this a little bit much. (Plus I’m running short on time here).
What did I get out of all of this?

I don’t know yet.
I got to think about it.

Must run!!!

Mike

Hey Journal…
Well, good news and bad news.
The good news is I placed some trades about a couple hours after the market opened. And of course you should know that I was going after the one particular trade. CAD/CHF. Yep, and it’s going good. I picked the right direction alright. Plus I didn’t get to clue you in on the other ones that I had marked. I wanted to talk about those also, before I pulled the trigger, but just didn’t have enough time, was so preoccupied with that one trade. Sorry. But in any case, my account is nothing but rocketing higher and higher.
Ok…yeah…that’s nice…But this is the problem. And I seen it coming. When I placed all of the trades.
(This is why it’s good to be learning this stuff on demo) (But also kind of a bummer cause I would be pretty rich right about now)
Ok, well, I seen it coming when I set up the strategy. It’s all about money management factor of my system.
So far, what I got here (I believe) is a good method for getting in, what’s keeping me in, and what gets me out. And I believe that encompasses the old adage ‘let you winners run and cut you losers short’.
But, I need to figure out a suitable money management system to match this system. I was definitely wrong what I noted down earlier. And I noticed this when I placed these trades last night. Sure, there’s many trades I wanted to get in. So as I calculated the position sizing, I noticed that it just was way too much on each trade. Then the next thing you know I was out of margin. I couldn’t place anymore trades, which I had many lined up to do. Something is wrong. Big time. So, I guess I need to talk it out. Cause there is an idea I have in my mind about how it should go.
Let’s begin. This is what I want.
I would like to trade any and all of the set-ups that are occurring on my charts. I truly believe it’s the only way to go. I mean, the take off is going to be rough, no doubt. But once things are moving, I want to be able to say, ‘If it’s trending, I’m in it’. Look, all I want to be preoccupied with is the take off. And that means getting in on a ground level trend, in it’s infancy (the purple line). Once it starts, and I’m in profit, I do nothing else. It is going to ride on out till the market stops me out. Sure, if it happens that it was a fake out (a deep cut into the trend), and I got stopped out, then I will look for the reentry. But, other than that, all I am doing is looking for trends to be starting. In the different time frames.
But what I want is very minimal riding on the trades that are on higher time frames. And the closer the time frame the more of a size on them. Generally speaking though, I don’t want a lot of risk out there on each trade. But there should be more risk with the multiple trades running though. Man, this is gonna be such a balancing act.
Oh, and there’s another aspect that I came across also. And that has to do with the stop loss. You know…I can’t really place one when I first get in. (That’s going to do wonders to what kind of position size I need.)
But anyway, I feel it’s more important to see where price ends instead of where it stretches to. Yeah, I place a stop loss, then get stopped out, and then start over again. So looks like I need to come up with a set of rules for the stop loss. Ok, how about this? Not far away from the purple line!
Ok Journal, I just wanted to pop in here and clue you in on what I need to work on. Once again, I need to read. And that’s precisely what I was doing all morning. I am digging up as much as I can here in BabyPips.
I was reading up on leverage, margin, position sizing, etc… So, much work to do Journal. I am on it though.

But, in the meantime, check out some of my trades. I’ll start out with the one and only trade.
CAD/CHF. This is the 4HR, Daily, Weekly, and Monthly time frames.


In the first chart there (4hr), that big huge 4hr green candle is where the market opened up this week. I tried to get in as close to the purple line as possible. That’s the best I can do.
Look at the 2nd chart (D). That is the only one perfectly lined-up (most trending high…purple(sma18) on bottom, then green(sma9), then yellow(sma4), then price). The 4hr chart is close and only needs the green to get above the purple. But the weekly time frame seems kind of risky, except for the fact that the purple line is surely pointing on the rise, along with the other 2 lines also. And the monthly shows some promise. No doubt that this is premature cause the month has just begun. But starting out on a rise though. Also need to note that the yellow crossed the other 2 fairly quickly. That signifies a strong turn around. Hopefully I caught this at a good time.

Anyway, this demo account is looking really good. But, it means nothing until I can get the position sizing properly adjusted. And that’s my primary goal now.
Much reading to do.

Mike

P.S. I opened the week with the account right at about $105,000.00
Now it looks like this.


Man am I trying to get a 2k demo account balance going. Need to trade as real on this demo!!!

Hey Mike , ok I started to read your journal but hey man , you’re spending too much time talking to the journal IMO… and that business with demo@$54k , absolutely no point in playing with 54k if you cant actually control a $2k a/c in demo …(imo) demo is good to try different stratergy but … you may as well play with a million … makes you feel good but does nothing for your discipline,MM,targets etc etc etc . I recieved a margin call ONCE and that was enough to frighten me into NEVER oversizing again for the size of my a/c … ive been at it for round 5yrs now , not very sucessfull $$ wise but the discipline,mind,and PATIENCE is getting better everyday.My only advice is study 1 or 2 curriencies UNTILL you know how they react to s/r and/or any other things that work for you. I particularly like the idea of only trading the 3 days where you seem to see a pattern going on .when I have a “bad hair day” I revert to smallest size I can and “take profit” at set points UNTILL I gain confidence in system back … Hope this is of some use P/unlimited

Hi Journal.

Underground.

That’s where I’m at.

I am not live.
I am not demoing.
I don’t even look at the markets anymore.

I am (have been) reading.
Learning.
Changing.

I am being built. From the ground up.

From now on, this Journal Journey will not be for any kind of emotions. I’m tired of talking about it all.
But, it will be a place of reference. What will take place here is what I will need to remember. I’ve been learning so much lately that I need to contain it all, somewhere. This is what I’m going to be made of.

Mike

Hey Journal.
What a difficult job of trying to figure out what the most important thing that I need to remember.
So, this is it. (Only because it hit me so very hard, and hurt the most)

[B]PROCESS ORIENTED, NOT GOAL ORIENTED[/B]
‘How we make trading decisions is more critical than what we get for results.’

‘Having a process helps engage deliberative mind. Following a specific process also helps reduce emotion-based judgements and decisions. A process grounds you and guides your focus to what is important. To their distinct detriment, many traders focus solely on their trade results and pay scant attention to their trading process. This allows emotions and mental blind spots to extract their toll. In contrast, successful performers are focused on their process rather than outcomes.’

[B]OUTPUT[/B]:
I find it senseless to look at what is going on in the market, nowadays. Because my primary purpose now is reading. I still wake up at 2:30am, and will not even open up my lap top. That has been a first. What I am doing is learning how to be a real trader.

Results are not the most important thing anymore.

It’s knowledge, skills, and abilities that I will be working on.

Mike

[B]Time Compression Trading[/B] by Jason Alan Jankovsky

If there is anything I wish I would have read in the beginning, it’s this book. (Or maybe now is the time)
Finally, finally, finally I will start to look at the market in the way I should.
I’m going to take a guess and say that this writer is either hated, or loved. It has to be one way or the other.
Cause I have never heard someone bash ‘price action’ the way he does. And guess what? I agree with him.
I’ve always wanted to have the right perspective of the market. I mean, this is where it all starts anyway.

So…I don’t want to do a lot of explaining anymore. That will be all the intro I give for this book. I want to get to the points that I deem very, very important. This is how I am going to be built.

[B]The market is people.[/B]
The way I viewed it before was not this way. I seen numbers. In the form of candles. That was the absolute finest point of which I viewed the market. And boy did I try to find a way to make sense of what was going on, with the numbers, and try to predict which way the numbers were going to go.
Well, there’s a better way to see it. And that is the way it actually is.
[B]This market is a zero-sum market.[/B] ‘The market is only a machine. All the market itself will ever do is provide a place for people to come together and choose to enter an order from one side or the other. It is the nature of those orders that we have to be concerned with. We need to know their nature because once we have entered a trade, the only way we can get paid is if someone else loses; and the only way someone else can lose is if the orders after us are larger from the same side we are on; that is what creates the price change we are attempting to exploit. Orders after us create our profit or our loss. This means that other traders decide if you win or lose, not you.’

[B]OUTPUT[/B]
I do not want to see price (as an exclusive entity) anymore. I do not want to see numbers. I want to see decisions. I want to see the actions of what people have decided. I start there.

‘In the markets, this is an absolute: There are only two groups of people, winners and losers. It does not matter who those people are, what the size of their equity or trades might be, or their level of knowledge or study. At the end of the day, no matter who you are or where you choose to participate, you are in one group or the other. Period. End of story. No matter who you are or who the other market participants might be, at the end of your participation (and theirs), only one of you will be the winner and the other will be the loser. There is no way around that immutable fact.’

‘Winners’ psychology is different from that of losers. The actions taken by winners are different from those taken by losers. Winners are doing their best to think in probabilities, and they come to their conclusions from a different stream of thought than do losers. Winners are watching what is happening in an attempt to discern what is most likely to come next, based on how well they can tell what is happening now. Winners don’t want to predict prices; they want to know with as much clarity as possible what has already happened. Only then can they make a reasonable guess as to what will happen next. In short, winners are outthinking losers. Trading is a thinking man’s game, not a mathematician’s game.

[B]OUTPUT[/B]
First off, I will not be trading anytime soon. Not even demoing.
I want to be an observer. I want to view the market (the place where these transactions take place) through a different set of glasses. I will start there. I will not be concerned with trading (entry points, looking for breakouts, pips, what is high or what is low, where price wants to go, trends continuing or turning, etc…) That means anything that has to do with a trade. I will be an observer only.
So, whenever I decide to open up the charts, I will practice looking at the market as an observer only.

In the meantime, I continue to read. And re-read. And take notes.

Mike

[I][U]Not[/U][/I] a mathematician’s game? Do you have a hidden truth not yet revealed to all those huge international financial institutions with trading floors who require a minimum of a first-class honours degree in mathematics (and maybe a Master’s in maths as well) before they’ll even invite someone to an interview?

Please forgive my facetiously heckling tone (I happen to detest Jankovsky’s perspectives, though I admit to not having read this book. His other one, [I]The Art of the Trade[/I], was more than enough for me ).

And welcome back, Mike. I, for one, am following with interest and looking forward with interest to seeing how your journal progresses. :cool:

Hey Lexys!

Wow!! What an honor to see you here.
You know, to be honest, I thought of you when I wrote the statement ‘I bet he’s hated or loved’. Cause I know of you. I know that your quite the mathematician. And that is your perspective on the market.
In any case, those were his words. And I’m sorry that I like the way he thinks.
For the book reader that you are, why don’t you give that one a try? It is making me start completely over. I just cannot disagree with anything about it. It makes sense to me.

But…of all the things I have read about you here…I have complete respect for you and do look up to you. I admire you, and the work you have accomplished in this business.
And while I’m on the subject…I happen to think very, very highly of a woman’s mind. It is wired differently than a man’s. I will never take that for granted. So, just like our friend Pipme, when you talk, I listen.
It’s all about becoming successful.
I’m glad to see that in others.
And one of these days, without fail, I will also.

Thanks Lexys.

Mike

1 Like

I might - thanks, Mike. (And thanks for not taking me the wrong way! :cool: ). The problem is, I have a big stack of unread books at the moment, because I have the bad habit of maintaining my Amazon-ordering quantities even when I have less reading-time available. :8:

It wouldn’t be the first time someone’s “subsequent book” would be of much more interest to me than the first. (I found Van K. Tharp exactly the opposite: it was [I]only[/I] his first book in which I found any real value to myself!).

I have Asperger’s, which (one theory says) may actually make mine [I]less[/I] differently wired from a male one than is true for many women. I don’t know whether that’s good or bad, though (or even true) … but that’s perhaps why I’m so “mathematical”.

Hi Journal.

This is how I’m being built.
These are the things I was concentrating/meditating on this morning. (My notes I wrote down in bold)

[B]Learn to wait out the other traders. Think on longer time frames.[/B]

[B]Look for and see the winners. /// Look for and see the losers. [/B]

[B]The underlying psychology of the market structure is conflict resolution. Either they feel under threat, or feel there is an opportunity.[/B]

My primary focus about the market, the way I approach the market, how I am looking at it, my whole primary perspective about the market, is changing.
From technically speaking (numbers, charts, prices, lines) to human behavior. Because I feel now that it will be [B]more[/B] important to keep that as the perspective of why price has moved, rather than price itself as the whole entire complete objective. That only makes sense because it’s the traders themselves who produce the price. More specifically it’s the balance/imbalance of the order flow.

[B]OUTPUT : [/B]
Every aspect of my thinking about the market, learning about it, seeing it, should begin and end with the human behavior truths behind it.
I’m practicing, and training my thoughts this way.
On a daily basis.

Mike

BTW Journal…boy am I excited. I ordered another book. Should come today. ‘How to think like Da Vinci’.
Get ready for some genius thinking.

Hey Mike!

Good to see you are keeping up the journal.

Regardless of what your approach is; there are fundamental things that you have to be able to do ‘live’ to be profitable and the only way you will be able to do them is to practice ‘live’, A LOT.

i would hate to see you shift from approach to approach,[I] i know that is not what you are doing right now btw[/I], and not progress because you haven’t put in the time live on the fundamentals.

As you know, there’s a vast amount of information out there that sounds great and makes a lot sense, Much of it can be traded profitably by someone but if that someone isn’t you… the point is?

We all have different ways of learning, if it suits you it might be an idea to work on a couple of practical issues whilst you learn your new Macro approach.

Just a suggestion…

Win

Hey Win!
Yep. I hear ya. Thanks.

You will see. I’m taking this slow. Like I said, I’m not even demoing, practicing yet. It all will unravel. But I feel I must begin with [I]my[/I] proper approach/view of the market. And this is me. We all know when something sits right inside of us, especially after time and time again we (I) have experienced all of the times that I [I]thought[/I] I figured it out, and ends in disaster. This time is not just another go at it. And I thought I have been demonstrating that, by, first off, not throwing any more money at the market. Then deciding to jump completely out of the rat race by not even [B]demoing[/B] anymore, until I believe I am truly ready.
I have been reading much. And because of that, I realize that there’s so much I’ve been doing wrong. So much so that it only makes sense to start over, and I mean, start over. And I believe it starts with the proper way [I]I[/I] need to see the market. See, I also realize that the last 3 1/2 yrs wasn’t a total waste of time. I did learn a lot. Like what doesn’t work. And I do remember some aspects of trading that have worked.
In any case, I realize that before I go live, a strategy must be tried and proven on demo first. That means a lot of executions taking place over and over again, according to a specific plan. No surprises transitioning to a live account. During this entire year, I noticed that I never really had a proper plan in place.
And now, in order for me to even attempt demo, I need a plan. Which I do not have now. Which I am not even presently working on now either. Where I am at now is gathering together all of the relevant factors I know of that’s important. It’s my core beliefs. It’s the tools that I will use. Kind of like building a baseball team. You have to build up each and every player, who each has their own particular function, but all come together in harmony to produce a win in the end.
So, this morning, I stepped out and watched the charts. And as I was watching, I was paying very close attention to what I think about when I see price move. I am training to see it differently. One of my new tools I am using now is volume. (bought a couple other books on that also). But in any case, what I am really doing is training myself to see the market differently, than what I used to. I am moving away from the old way to a new way.
See, I do understand what you are saying about going from approach to approach. That is not going to happen. It takes very much work.

So much more to come.
It will [B]all[/B] be revealed here.

Mike

Very true and never forget it. 6 months of live trading exposed what 3 years of demoing couldn’t and you now know which gaps you have to fill or find solutions to and which skills you have to improve on. The things that do work will come in handy later.

There is no rush and no real short cuts you just have to put in the work. Your plan will help you break things down into sectors and phases… to use your baseball analogy, you buy players for specific jobs and functions and set out a specific system of play etc but each player also needs to work on technique, fitness and performance psychology for it all to work when it matters, on the field, game after game.

Your reaction to the setbacks is very good and that’s a great sign.
Look forward to seeing how things progress.

Win

Hey Journal.
Boy do I have to write some things down now. It’s what hit me this morning. Kind of a major breakthrough.

But first…I see Win came on first here.

Thanks Win!
Thanks for the encouragement.

Ok here we go.
I think this is what I’ve been looking for. And it makes sense. My predominant issue lately is about my approach. There are many different ones, but this one I like. I will uncover it now, from general to specific.
See, I want to be an observer. Not a predictor. I want to be most objective when I view the market. Meaning, trying to see what is happening without any view of trying to predict where price might want to go. Just simply wanting to see the market as it is. An observer. One who is not biased in any way. One who does not have in mind, one way or the other, where things should go. Completely unbiased. And also to understand what is actually taking place, which is an unbalance of orders from traders (as the bottom line).
And given all that, as a precursor, this is what makes sense to me. The market has structure. The market is either trending high, tending low, or ranging. It’s a set of conditions that can have probabilities to it. It’s an outcome of what takes place from the participants. And if there’s one thing that I realize where I went wrong before, it’s this. I rooted for the subjects. If it was the AUD, the USD, or any currency, that was my focus! I was one sided. There was such a bias. That is a very, very difficult thing to avoid when my most fundamental view was on the currencies themselves. A lot of hope goes into it. How long will a currencies strength/weakness last, hoping that its trend will continue, or waiting for a turn of sentiment, etc…
But now, I want to turn my focus on the conditions that take place in the market, [I]as my primary focus[/I].
Price will either be trending high, low, or ranging.
That subject, in itself, requires much understanding. It can be studied. One of the most important aspects I remember is [I]putting trends into perspective[/I]. And that’s one thing I love to do. I put [I]all[/I] things into perspective, in my life. So, my point is, I will be looking for these states in the market. Uncovering them in regards to the different time frames. Being aware of the long term, medium term, and short term trends.
And what should naturally follow this focus is probability thinking. And Unbias and objective way to trade must be a more probable way to trade. I know that I need to see both sides of a trade. It only makes sense.

Well, this is what I want. This is how I want to be. I have so much work to do. But, this is my starting point, my angle.
I’ve been writing down a lot of stuff on the subject. Because I need to have knowledge, skills, and abilities. I’ll get to putting it out here next. I just needed to start with this.

Mike

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Hey Journal.

[B]MY TRADING STRUCTURE [/B]

[B][I]Time Frame :[/I][/B]
I’m a swing trader. I only have so much time in a day to devote to my trading business. This is part time.
This is the best way for me to be able to take advantage of the market. It’s operating on longer time frames.
Plus I believe it’s true that in the longer time frames the market structure is more apparent and accurate.
So, I will use these 3 time frames. Monthly. Weekly. Daily.

[B]Monthly:[/B]
—Tells me the prevailing (secured) trend state.
—It’s the first look at the state.
—It’s not a complete picture.
—It’s the first (most important) half of the state.
[B]Weekly:[/B]
—This is the second half of the secured state.
—Completes the picture.
—The weekly perspective, I believe, is most important.
—The close of the week is very important. I feel this aspect, of seeing price movement ending up in a weeks time, is a major clue. For direction.
[B]Daily:[/B]
—The smallest time frame I need.
—Used for entries.
—I understand that within a weeks time price will most probably- have a direction, coupled with a correction. In some form of fashion.
—I can only use a close for an entry.

So, in my mind, from where I came from, I need to learn to slow down and be more patient.
My time perspective, in regards to trading, needs to take place from further out. Because I do believe in the market structure being more accurate in higher time frames.
Plus it’s the only way I can trade anyway, in a days/weeks time.
I definitely will need to adopt the correct risk control in regards to this time perspective.
That is another element of [I]my trading structure[/I].

Mike

1 Like

Hi Journal.

[B]MY TRADING STRUCTURE[/B]

[B][I]Trading Scenarios:[/I][/B]

I will be looking at the market with this in mind. The market has structure. The only possible states it can possibly take are:
—Flowing uptrend
—Flowing downtrend
—Topping market
—Bottoming market
—Ranging – (either as an aimless state or a consolidating state)

My function will be to exploit one of those states for a trade.
With tools and clues, I can pick one of those states to trade. To be objective about it I will attach probabilities for and against the reason of taking the trade.
My objective will be to either ride out the state or cut my losses (in the event of a misread).
Here are my possible scenarios.
[B]An uptrend :[/B]
–Join in the existing order flow.
–Buy order with a stop loss.
–Exit at a top. Or a reversal. (Of course when it is revealed after the fact)
[B]A downtrend :[/B]
–Join in the existing order flow.
–Sell order with a stop loss.
–Exit at a bottom. Or a long ranging condition. (Of course when it is revealed after the fact)
[B]A top :[/B]
–Fading the uptrend.
–Sell order with a stop loss.
–Predominantly at all time highs.
–Exit when it is not considered a downtrend anymore. Lengthy ranging condition.
[B]A bottom :[/B]
–Fading the downtrend.
–Buy order with a stop loss.
–Exit when not considered an uptrend anymore. Lengthy ranging condition.
[B]Ranging :[/B]
–Consolidating ranging condition only.
–Either buy a breakout, with a stop loss.
–Or sell a breakout, with a stop loss.
–On a long trade, exit when not considered an uptrend anymore.
–On a short trade, exit when not considered a downtrend anymore.

This is putting my trading in some sort of perspective. How I will trade. What possible trades I will take.
And surely there will be more specifics to the trades, but this is more of an outline, to begin with.

Mike

1 Like

Hi Journal.

Well, some interesting stuff happening to me.
It’s because I’ve been reading. And learning more about myself. About how I choose to approach the market.
Therefore these books that I’ve been reading have been leading me down a [I]slightly[/I] different path. I believe it’s where I belong.
When I look back, I have noticed the changes. It started with me learning that the one very huge tool that I have adopted that started the changes. It’s what’s been missing in my trading. [B]VOLUME.[/B]
If there’s anything that makes sense to me, it’s that. So…I’ve been learning.
But, what I’ve realized, because of that, is I belong in a different market. One where the volume is regulated and transparent, better than the fx market. Don’t get me wrong Journal, my first love will always be the forex market. But now, I’m embarking on a journey in the [B][I]futures market.[/I][/B]
That’s where everything is regulated, tallied, supervised, including the volume.
Let me throw out the 2 books that I’m now in the middle of. 'Mind over Markets…by James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones, Robert B. Dalton ([I]power trading with market generated information)[/I]. And ‘Markets Profile’…same authors ([I]profiting from the Auction Process)[/I].
This is gonna take some time for me to digest. This method of trading revolves around examining the order flow, and monitoring that volume. Now, this all seems like I don’t care [I]what[/I] it is in particular that I trade. Because I don’t want the subject (item traded) to be my focus (getting back to the emotional attachment I want to avoid). But, I realize that I am a trader. And now is the time break out my close-minded mind. I knew one of these days I would eventually be a trader that can trade anything. Currencies. Commodities. Stocks. Gov’t debt. CFD’s. But honestly…I’m afraid. I was afraid. Probably because I don’t understand how all these other things work.
Now is the time. And this is the reason why…cause…I CAN STILL TRADE CURRENCIES!! Yay!!!
You know, this was my original plan, way back when I researched and overviewed them all. From the top down. Currencies is definitely first. That only makes sense.

So Journal, I just wanted to pop in here and let you know what I’ve been up to.
I also am aware of how much work is ahead of me. Look…the only thing that has changed is the particular market. I have many issues still on the table. My operating trading strategy. Money management. Risk management. My capital building plan. Basically the road I need to take to trade my way, all the way up, to my full time trading business.

Mike