by 22:30hrs when the next 2h candle form, at the 618 of the last upswing, if it ends up forming a Harami,
I will be forced to lighten my position even further and perhaps consider that my “Crown Right Tip” analysis maybe invalidated
patience is key at the moment…
well, the market continue to fall on opening with a small retracement.
however the RSI is showing signs of oversold and divergence
I do not work with RSI anymore, for the simple reason that was causing me to “trade against the trend” more often than not, I couldn’t get myself to use it as a complementary signal to buy or sell in the direction of the trend…which ended up costing me money
I have lighten my positions, although there was a nice entry at the beginning of trading at the 382 i usually ignore the first few hours of trading on the beginning of the week for obvious reasons
where to from here?
Option 1: Market will continue its down trend after a retracement…or
Option 2: Market will make a reverse crown by breaking the Inner Trend Line and change direction
if Option 1: I will only add a pyramid base position if it forms a nice candlestick at a 786 of the shown down swing
If Option 2: I will probably NOT exit / reverse but might close my position specially if supported by a nice 2h or 4h candlestick
now i have more time to describe reasons for entry…
it is quite obvious by the picture…market retraced up to the 618 and formed a Shooting Star followed by an Engulfing candle in the h2 chart.
This happened after breaking the most recent inner down trend line as shown. Now, the following south move length can be one of two as I see it:
It is on its way to form a Reverse Crown meaning that the Right Tip should be at around the level of the 2nd low )Left Tip) where the “black arrow” is pointing.
This area is around the 139.20-139.00 prices where we also have the 786 fib of the last up swing.
I have my target at 139.104 just in between, I am going for a clean 2x profit this time.
or
If I am wrong and the gbp is on its way to the 127% extension which is also around the 786% of the largest up swing from 16/1/17 to 27/1/17 then I would’ve missed out on about 100 pips since these two areas 127/786 are around 138.20-138
I am hoping that the gbp will form the RT at the 139 area then go up to the 786 shown around 141 before heading back down to the 138 (786/127) gartley
I have set up an alert price just above my TP just in case I get to close only half position and wait to see if the gbp forms a candle signal at the 139 levels showing that the RT is forming. If not then I will be able to ride it down to 138
ok…gbp decided to form a Piercing Line candlestick at the 786 of the last up swing…
because I am short, I will not exit/reverse on my trade simply because it has only moved 1:1 r:r (Max Move) and it is not at a min of 1:1 profits because of it. According to my trading rules, I only exit / reverse a trade if I am at least at 1:1 R:R in profits.
However, I have moved my stop at b/e. if stop out, I will seek to re-enter on the 786 at 141.13 area
Unfortunately the gbp is reducing its swings, had it stopped at the 786 I would have hit my min of 2x profit but there is always the next trade
Our current trade has been “ranged bound” for the past two days
However, it looks as if we might be moving our way finally…
the GJ will need to clear the last 618 support area of the last up swing, denoted in green rectangle
let’s wait and see…
ps on a further note, I have now put together for first time my own “Trading Manual” the core is complete but the Do’s and Don’t’s will be a living component as well as sample of “failed signals”
I believe that in order to learn it is required to make mistakes, and learn from them. I have recorded those “key” mistakes I have made over the past few months and added them to my manual so I include them as part of my weekly studies…
My manual contains:
Trading Mantra
Key trading tools
Flowchart of my trades selection (Parent and Child entries)
Profit management (explaining the cancel and replace method and my “milestone” bankroll approach)
Western Patterns (the ones I choose to trade)
Do’s and Don’t’s
Sample Trades
Sample of Failed/False/Incorrect Signals
Sample of profits results using the milestone bankroll approach
The results have been amazing, I have already improved my self - discipline by simply completing this manual. By analysing the potential of my method using backtesting and live trades I entered in the past (i.e. selecting only those trades with the GBPJPY that follow my strategy…as you know I haven’t followed my strategy 100% e.g. trading other crosses…) it has given me a lot to look forward to…
If there is anyone out there that has been following my simple method of trading let me know if you are interested in getting a copy of my manual as soon as I am happy with all its content. It won’t include all 37 trades (Jul16-Mar17) because it would be too big but I will be including some sample trades
LT25 SHORT got stopped out at -46 pips
I am looking at a possible descending bearish wedge but in the medium term
in the short term the gj has broken the inner trend line and bounced of a 50% fib support. I expect it to rally towards the 786 fib resistance (denoted by the down arrow) at around the 140.25. our long profit target is just below this price
happy trading
for the reasons shown in attached screen plus it missed our target by just 2pips…which is good enough
30m -dark cloud cover (dcc)
1h - shooting star (ss)
2h - shooting star (ss)
all of which is happening at the 786 and Down Trend Line as shown
I will be reversing that is going Short upon completion of the 4-hourly candle by when the 2h should have a further confirmation like a bear engulfing candle to boot
