Fx traders challenge - 100 live trades

now all our open trades 88, 89 and 90 are at b/e
although i am taking a big risk to get stopped out with the eur/usd, let’s see what happens

gj is at +170 pips
au is at +50 pips
eu is at a megre +10 pips despite of having moved about +30pips and I believe it might be wanting to have a go at the major resistance levels stopping us out in the way reason why I have shorten my position and taken some profits while leaving the remaining at b/e

happy trading :slight_smile:

happy trading

we have short the usd/cad as shown
:slight_smile:

back on the horse at a better price shorting the aud/usd…slightly

Hi there, I am now at trade #92 and it is time for me to reflect on what has happened and what I have learnt from all of this 100-live trades challenge.

[B][U]Trades Selection:[/U][/B]
I started with a simple set of rules which I amended slightly in v2.0
In there I have 3-types of trades: direction of the inner trend line; if itl is broken then trade the “reverse crown right tip”; if itl is broken also can trade against the broken itl if there is a 4h/2h 786 candle of a large swing (this one is quite hard to explain in words). I however, have not just traded according to my rules, I traded outside all of this so really I can’t say I have been “Disciplined”.

The good news is that I just re-written my rules for trading and did it so “without reading my original rules”, I re-developed this from the experiences of the 100 live trades challenge “separately” and if you compared the two I have came up with the same conclusions with the exception of “one more group/type” of trades.

I find this quite encouraging, and I hope to adhere to these 4-groups 100%

[B][U]Trades Management:[/U][/B]
This have been perhaps the most challenging part of all my trading strategy. One thing is to know when to enter a trade, another is to know how to manage your profits, how to set up your profits, when to move the trade to b/e to avoid doing it too early, etc etc.

I know that the most profits I can make is when I follow the rules detailed in my strategy, "let the market swing, move your stops to the most recent hi/lo using the 2h or 4h chart, keep adding to your live trade(s) in a pyramid style until such time that the market breaks the itl and forms a contrarian signal, In other words, stay in the trade and keep pyramiding on it until the next trade in the opposite direction appears.

Well, this is much easier “said than done” and it is certainly quite easy to do when you are “back testing”…when you are in the live trades and see that you made 300 pips and then it is starting to retrace (in the case of the gj this retracements are sometimes 100 pips or more!) then you get out only to realised that it wasn’t retracing at all!

Anyway, what I have decided to do is use the fibonacci extensions as my profit targets for the G/J. It is a good compromise for now until I become far more experienced and disciplined in following the cancel/replace method.

[B][U]Examples:[/U][/B]
Finally, since I am about to finish this thread, I want to make my contribution to those of you who have been following my posts. I have gotten a few nice feedback in my inbox and I thank you all of you and hope that you continue to generate profits. As such, I will attached one example chart for each of the 4-type of trades based on my redefined trading strategy (which it is not that far off from the v1.0 i might say) :frowning:

my next few posts will also be a look at the upcoming week so you all can be on the look out for the next trades…

happy trading :slight_smile:

Hi there, based on the:
Day Chart: the au is now on a down trend. It formed a nice engulfing candle at a major resistance convergences of fibonacci’s rations (38.2, 50, 61.8 and 78.6) this is why I had entered short.

4h-Chart: After breaking the inner trend line, it went back up to form a “double top” confirming the 4h shooting star as resistance (we traded this) and proceeded to break the “outer up trend line” to move further south.

I have re-entered my short trade, albeit a little too early, since I believe that the au has still a bit more to retrace before resuming it’s down trend.

So, I suggest to look out for a 618 or 786 + candle formation to enter short perhaps at the back of the broken outer trend line.

I will look at adding to my existing short trade at these levels :slight_smile:

Hi there, here it is my forecast for the GBP/JPY.
Overall the g/j is in a down trend. The g/j likes to move around 1000 pips in each trend period and following a 1200-1300 up trend it formed a nice evening star on the daily chart at a past resistance (past doji) and ema356 levels. this happened on the 10/5 so now I am expecting it to be on a down trend for at least 2/3 of the latest up swing from 17/4 to 10/5 or around 140.40 (the 61.8% fibonnaci of this up swing). this will make the down trend of 800 pips, after that who knows…

so, I will be looking at re-entering short as soon as it has retrace to any of the fibonacci levels (38.2 @143.40 or so) and has formed a 2h or 4h bear candle signal.

happy trading :slight_smile:

I made the mistake of reading some other experts forums and second guessing myself, therefore moving my stop to b/e “due to doubts” …the EUR/USD had formed a nice day chart engulfing candle just 35 pips below a major resistance level (1.3000) which had broken a 4h chart inner up trend line in the process.

I entered short, but as mentioned above, second guess myself after reading other people’s opinions (which I RARELY DO! :frowning: ), and ended up being stopped out at b/e… :frowning: :58:

I was trying to wait for the weekly signal…a nice bear Harami also at this levels.

Now I am looking to re-enter short as soon as the eu allows me too…

The good news is that the 2h and 1h charts are showing “bull” candle signals, hopefully allowing the eur/usd to rally up once more and giving me a close to my original short entry…

all in all, we are looking at entering short at a max risk pips of 50…our stop has to be at the top of the doji bear weekly candle…unless the h4 or h2 provides a cheaper stop loss price…

of course there is always the possibility of having a last go at the 1.300 price before moving down, but if so happens so beat it, I will be still looking for a short re-entry if that is the case…
happy trading :slight_smile:

hi there, I am not sure I have been updating the trades on time so here they are just in case…

t91 short usd/cad
t92 short aud/usd
t93 long usd/jpy

happy trading :slight_smile:

another entry and another exit trade
the usd/cad has now broken the inner down trend line in the 4h chart. this is a key signal for me to at least exit a trade or lighten a position. in this case means exit…

on another note, we have entered short on the aud/cad after breaking a bearish triangle pattern in the 1h

we are still looking to enter short in the eur/usd, gbp/jpy and aud/usd (add to the latter) if the market gives us a nice entry before continuing their bearish trend…

happy trading :slight_smile:

we are still “bearish” on the aud/usd in the day/4h time frame, however, as per my weekend post, I am expecting the aud/usd and the eur/usd to rally up to give us a better entry short. whilst I was going to let my aud/usd trade to “do its thing” I wasn’t happy with my “too early re-entry short” in the au so I closed the short trade and I am going hopefully for a quick few pips if the au rallies to either the 618 or 786 of the recent down swing…so this long trade is on the 1h chart, after the au has broken the 1h down trend line and formed a ms at the 786 fib

summary:
bearish outlook on the day/4h chart
currently expecting the au to retrace its previous downwards movement
we are trading long the 1h time frame for a few pips profit (hopefully)

if I am right with my analysis that is!
if not, I would be missing out on bear profits and losing on this long…but the signals look strong to me

anyway only time witll tell

only 5 more trades and I am done!

I have thought on providing weekly “best trade” picks during the weekend once the “100 live trades” are over…

happy trading :slight_smile:

similarly to the aud/usd the aud/jpy is ready for a short up move before resuming its down trend
in the 4h chart shown it has broken the most recent up trend line and it should be in the process of forming a bear crown anyway time will tell if our open trades will be a success or not…
happy trading :slight_smile:

as shown I have entered short on the eur/gbp and also have updated some of my profit targets
happy trading :slight_smile:

aud/usd: the expected rally didn’t go beyond 0.7450 (EMAs resistance) which has also been the 382 fibonacci resistance of the recent (last weeks) downswing (4h chart). furthermore, the eur/usd has also broken the last support after bouncing at the 38.2% fibonacci (this is what I call the 382 break out)…as such, we have switched our position to our long term view of the aud/usd “bear” as my weekend post.

we have also traded the 382 eur/usd breakout…

happy trading :slight_smile:

ps one more to go! :slight_smile:

ok we made it to t#100. we have 4 active trades after reassessing my positions, stops and targets
we have the following trades open:

t97 eur/gbp short target profit 100 pips
t98 eur/usd short open target
t99 aud/usd short open target
t100 gbp/jpy short open target

happy trading :slight_smile:

a quick 80 pips collected on the gj trade#100
happy trading :slight_smile:

hey fxpirana how do I look at your blog??? thanks

t97 eur/gbp is now at b/e
there are a few signs of going against us and i am quite happy having collected 80 out of 100 pips that the gbp/jpy moved from early this morning
happy trading :slight_smile:

hi bryan, sorry not sure what you mean. I don’t have a “blog” here only these posts. for the past 100 trades I have been posting my trades “LIVE” that is as I enter, update, or exit each trade as immediately as possible.
I have now reached the “100 live trades challenge” I set for myself with currently the last 3 trades (98, 99, 100) still open trades. since I have now achieved the 100th trade the challenge is over. I will no longer update my trades live because it does take too much of my time and makes me "rushy’…instead I will be posting weekly trades set ups I see for the upcoming week. I started doing this last weekend with my eur/usd, gbp/jpy and aud/usd trades which I ended up entering this week (trades 98, 99, 100)…

i will be more “detailed” on my tech analysis which I have been using for my “100 live trades”

hope this helps
happy trading

As per my previous post. Now that I have reached my 100th trade and while I await the results of the last 3-active trades, I am here practicing my “tech analysis forecasts” that I will be positing in the future ONCE a week during the Weekend to help my fellow followers identify trades. I will be referring to the rules and strategies that I use in my Trading Methodology as much as possible and hopefully you will be able to act on such trade ideas on your own. I would love to hear some feedback from those of you that were able to act on such trading ideas.
I will then be recapping on what happened with my selected trade of the week (I am planning on picking only one trade per week so it is easier to write about and follow thru during the week) to see how we went, wether it happened, it didn’t happen and what potential of profits or losses would you have incurred.

So as practice, here is a trade set up idea I am waiting on to re-enter short on the gbp/jpy

[B][U]Day Chart GBP/JPY:[/U][/B]
Starting with the longer time frame, we are Bearish on the G/J ever since it hit its peak on the 10th May 2017 at a high of 148.10 just a few pips below the key resistance level as shown.
Following this high, which completed a usual run of about 1,200-1,300 pips of the up trend (historically, the G/J likes these type of runs) on the 12 May we had a beautiful Evening Star formed complemented by a RSI Over Bought signal. The last deciding signal, which I gave lots of importance to, is the fact that the Candle Formation (Evening Star) ALSO broke the recent up trend line. This falls under group “B” of my 4-groups trading methodology I have discussed before.

[B][U]4 hour Chart GBP/JPY:[/U][/B]
What happened after such nice formation was the obvious, the g/j has now fallen 700 pips out of the 1200 it had rallied before the 10th may. As it is customary, it stopped, paused at the 38.2% previously, before resuming its down trend now pausing at the 50% fib of the day swing (up trend) from 17 apr - 10 may. It is currently sitting at a 4h harami after previously retracing to the 38.2% of the recent down swing as shown. The 38.2% is a weak fib ratio however in a very fast trend it is quite effective in this case however, I feel that the g/j is due to break the shown down inner trend line to seek the 61.8% retracement before resuming its down trend.
This is the Re-Entry price we are looking for.

Of course, I can alway be wrong, after all I have been wrong for over 40% of the time! :frowning:

now off to poker!
happy trading :slight_smile: