hi there, I am not sure I have been updating the trades on time so here they are just in case…
t91 short usd/cad
t92 short aud/usd
t93 long usd/jpy
happy trading 
another entry and another exit trade
the usd/cad has now broken the inner down trend line in the 4h chart. this is a key signal for me to at least exit a trade or lighten a position. in this case means exit…
on another note, we have entered short on the aud/cad after breaking a bearish triangle pattern in the 1h
we are still looking to enter short in the eur/usd, gbp/jpy and aud/usd (add to the latter) if the market gives us a nice entry before continuing their bearish trend…
happy trading
we are still “bearish” on the aud/usd in the day/4h time frame, however, as per my weekend post, I am expecting the aud/usd and the eur/usd to rally up to give us a better entry short. whilst I was going to let my aud/usd trade to “do its thing” I wasn’t happy with my “too early re-entry short” in the au so I closed the short trade and I am going hopefully for a quick few pips if the au rallies to either the 618 or 786 of the recent down swing…so this long trade is on the 1h chart, after the au has broken the 1h down trend line and formed a ms at the 786 fib
summary:
bearish outlook on the day/4h chart
currently expecting the au to retrace its previous downwards movement
we are trading long the 1h time frame for a few pips profit (hopefully)
if I am right with my analysis that is!
if not, I would be missing out on bear profits and losing on this long…but the signals look strong to me
anyway only time witll tell
only 5 more trades and I am done!
I have thought on providing weekly “best trade” picks during the weekend once the “100 live trades” are over…
happy trading
similarly to the aud/usd the aud/jpy is ready for a short up move before resuming its down trend
in the 4h chart shown it has broken the most recent up trend line and it should be in the process of forming a bear crown anyway time will tell if our open trades will be a success or not…
happy trading
as shown I have entered short on the eur/gbp and also have updated some of my profit targets
happy trading
aud/usd: the expected rally didn’t go beyond 0.7450 (EMAs resistance) which has also been the 382 fibonacci resistance of the recent (last weeks) downswing (4h chart). furthermore, the eur/usd has also broken the last support after bouncing at the 38.2% fibonacci (this is what I call the 382 break out)…as such, we have switched our position to our long term view of the aud/usd “bear” as my weekend post.
we have also traded the 382 eur/usd breakout…
happy trading
ps one more to go!
ok we made it to t#100. we have 4 active trades after reassessing my positions, stops and targets
we have the following trades open:
t97 eur/gbp short target profit 100 pips
t98 eur/usd short open target
t99 aud/usd short open target
t100 gbp/jpy short open target
happy trading
a quick 80 pips collected on the gj trade#100
happy trading
hey fxpirana how do I look at your blog??? thanks
t97 eur/gbp is now at b/e
there are a few signs of going against us and i am quite happy having collected 80 out of 100 pips that the gbp/jpy moved from early this morning
happy trading
hi bryan, sorry not sure what you mean. I don’t have a “blog” here only these posts. for the past 100 trades I have been posting my trades “LIVE” that is as I enter, update, or exit each trade as immediately as possible.
I have now reached the “100 live trades challenge” I set for myself with currently the last 3 trades (98, 99, 100) still open trades. since I have now achieved the 100th trade the challenge is over. I will no longer update my trades live because it does take too much of my time and makes me "rushy’…instead I will be posting weekly trades set ups I see for the upcoming week. I started doing this last weekend with my eur/usd, gbp/jpy and aud/usd trades which I ended up entering this week (trades 98, 99, 100)…
i will be more “detailed” on my tech analysis which I have been using for my “100 live trades”
hope this helps
happy trading
As per my previous post. Now that I have reached my 100th trade and while I await the results of the last 3-active trades, I am here practicing my “tech analysis forecasts” that I will be positing in the future ONCE a week during the Weekend to help my fellow followers identify trades. I will be referring to the rules and strategies that I use in my Trading Methodology as much as possible and hopefully you will be able to act on such trade ideas on your own. I would love to hear some feedback from those of you that were able to act on such trading ideas.
I will then be recapping on what happened with my selected trade of the week (I am planning on picking only one trade per week so it is easier to write about and follow thru during the week) to see how we went, wether it happened, it didn’t happen and what potential of profits or losses would you have incurred.
So as practice, here is a trade set up idea I am waiting on to re-enter short on the gbp/jpy
[B][U]Day Chart GBP/JPY:[/U][/B]
Starting with the longer time frame, we are Bearish on the G/J ever since it hit its peak on the 10th May 2017 at a high of 148.10 just a few pips below the key resistance level as shown.
Following this high, which completed a usual run of about 1,200-1,300 pips of the up trend (historically, the G/J likes these type of runs) on the 12 May we had a beautiful Evening Star formed complemented by a RSI Over Bought signal. The last deciding signal, which I gave lots of importance to, is the fact that the Candle Formation (Evening Star) ALSO broke the recent up trend line. This falls under group “B” of my 4-groups trading methodology I have discussed before.
[B][U]4 hour Chart GBP/JPY:[/U][/B]
What happened after such nice formation was the obvious, the g/j has now fallen 700 pips out of the 1200 it had rallied before the 10th may. As it is customary, it stopped, paused at the 38.2% previously, before resuming its down trend now pausing at the 50% fib of the day swing (up trend) from 17 apr - 10 may. It is currently sitting at a 4h harami after previously retracing to the 38.2% of the recent down swing as shown. The 38.2% is a weak fib ratio however in a very fast trend it is quite effective in this case however, I feel that the g/j is due to break the shown down inner trend line to seek the 61.8% retracement before resuming its down trend.
This is the Re-Entry price we are looking for.
Of course, I can alway be wrong, after all I have been wrong for over 40% of the time! 
now off to poker!
happy trading
Hi fellow traders,
In my weekend post http://forums.babypips.com/trade-journals/84693-fx-traders-challenge-100-live-trades-22.html#post818062
I mentioned that I was “bearish” on the AUD/USD and that I was waiting for the AUD/USD to retrace to a 618 or 786 fibonnacci. I further analyse the possibility of a “Bear Crown” to form (although I failed to post this thoughts and chart as I realised just know, my apologies!). In any case, I believe the AUD/USD (AU) is now in the process of completing this Reversal Bear Crown Right Tip at the same (or close enough) level of the Left Tip as shown.
I have already entered short on this formation, based on a 30-min chart Engulfing Candle formed at the 74.60. Later it formed a 1-hr chart Dark Cloud Cover to boot.
I usually just trade the 2h minimum candle signal confirmation, however, due to the nature of this strong reversal pattern set up, I would go with the 30m chart attempting to get a better price. But I recommend to wait for at least the 2-hr chart candle confirmation which will be either an Engulfing (Eng) or a Dark Cloud Cover (DCC) type.
I also recommend a maximum of 50 pips stop since the AUD/USD doesn’t have as much a big range of move as my beloved GBP/JPY
Happy trading
Some may say that 1,056 pips over 100 trades in 15.83 weeks is “not much”…but I say, are you in profits after 100 trades? I am!
[B][U]First the results:[/U][/B]
trades = 100
wins = 39 #pips won = 2,630 avg pips/winning trade =67.43
b/evens = 19
losses = 42 #pips lost = 1,574 avg pips/losing trade =37.47
Max # of losing trades =3
Max # of winning trades (excl. b/e) = 5
[B][U]Now let’s do some maths:[/U][/B] the value of each pip is relative to how many lots or units one can buy. And on average I believe a pip works out to be worth from $0.10 - $0.13 per 1,000 units therefore the value per pip can vary from as little as say $0.10 I(micro) to $1 (mini) to $10 (standard) and so forth
Now 1,056 pips of profits in 15.83 weeks equates to
Little guy = $126.72 in profits
Not so little guy = $1,267.20 in profits
Medium size guy = $12,672 in profits or a nice $800 per week…a week’s wage for most
Just for simplicity, using the above mentioned averages a trade would cost:
38 pips x $0.12 = $4.50 for 1000 units requiring $225 bank at 2% or $90 bank at 5% (*not including the extra funds that one must have still left in the account so we don’t get closed out etc)
38 pips x $1.2 = $45 for 10,000 units requiring $2,220 bank at 2% or $900 bank at 5%
38 pips x $12 = $450 for 100K units requiring $22,200 bank at 2% or $9,000 bank at 5%
I am comfortable with a 5% risk per trade since I do not trade more than 20% of my bank at any one time. I usually manage my lot sizes to maintain this maximum if I happen to trade more crosses (like I just did this week because I wanted to reach the 100th trade soon since I am quite busy outside trading at the moment!)
Anyway, I did learnt a lot over the past 100 trades, as I have previously mentioned I started with a “2-group” or “2-types” of trades that I should be trading, I also started applying those 2-types of trades to only 2-crosses (AU, GJ) but in the way, I “deviated from my strategy” in a big way and after a nice first week, things turned sower for a bit. After reaching a high of +180 pips by trade #3 we went to a maximum draw down of -201 pips by trade #19 (which in fact means that I lost 381 pips!) after such time I got my self a little back on track and never looked back!
Having a nice 5-winning trades in a row with 1 b/e in between (on top of the 5 wins) was a nice boost of confidence (t29 eu +137, t30 au +128, t31 gj 0, t32 eu +105, t33 au +34, t34 gj +67) those trades taught me a lot, however, I was still making mistakes…
[B][U]Lessons Learnt:[/U][/B]
It took Tomas Edison 1000 attempts to come up with the light bulb…I do remember this a lot, with my trading: “I just learnt another way how not to trade”.
[B][U]So the ways I will NOT trade in the future are these:[/U][/B]
[I][B]1. Trading against the trade based purely on Candle Signal + RSI Divergence:[/B][/I]
This is by far the most costly group of the 5-groups I ended up trading at some point during the challenge.
As I may have mentioned in some of my posts, I started in my rules with 2 types of trades I would be trading. Then these expanded to 5 groups!.. After a few losing trades I finally realised that one of these five types was too weak and was losing more than not. It is quite obvious though, isn’t it? “The trend is your friend”! Counter-trend trading can be left for the super-skill traders! It ain’t for me.
This group was the RSI Div + Candle signal with no other signal like the Fibonnacci ratio or a break of a trend line. This I will never trade again.
I can now say that I am “detox” from this silly counter trend trading group. As example, last night before going to my weekly poker game, I noticed that the t98 and t99 had counter trend signals, so I closed these two trades at b/e (although I didn’t have the time to report it in my posts hence I recorded those trades as losing trades). In the past I would’ve “exit and reverse” in a rush, even though this time both would have made some pips, these group of trades are not worth it! pure and simple!
[I][B]2. Inconsistency in the $ amount risk: [/B][/I]
The second highest losing pattern is that I some times “increased my risk on a trade which would turned out to be the losing one!”, At the very beginning, I got “over confident” or “greedy” one of the two, or perhaps both!. So instead of investing my usual 2% say, I would invest 5% and lose most of my profits. When I looked back and updated my personal spreadsheet to calculate the number of units “I should’ve bought” had I been “consistent throughout” I would show far more profits! when I further analysed what had happened, it was simple, I invested more in the losing trades and less in the winning trades.
You see the pattern was: Greed bet more lose more that i should, Fear bet less win less than I should…
This happened for the first few weeks, I then got a grip back!
I do have however, great experience applying what I call “A milestone approach” to my 2% or 5% rule (whichever the case might be). In horse racing, I use the 2% of bank risk rule based on past statistics, and I do apply it however to “the maximum bank achieved” in this way my betting amount will growth exponentially.
But with trading I didn’t have the statistics required so I moved from 2% to 5% back to 2% and i wasn’t following this fix % of latest “milestone bank achieved” consistently.
For the past 30 trades at least, I have and I hope to continue to do so. I settled for the 5% (given my results) and continue moving my milestone figure as my bank grows.
[I][B]3. Moving my stop to “break even” too soon: [/B][/I]
This is not as costly lesson as such, since all it cost me was “the opportunity to make profits”. Contrary to the #1 and #2 lessons, breaking even is a lot better than losing! And there are always many more trades available soon after! This lesson only made me become more disciplined and I am now becoming more consistent at it.
[B][I]4. Exiting a trade too soon:[/I][/B]
Oh boy, not letting my profits run it is costly! but not in the way of “missing in more profits” but in the way of “I regret getting out of this trade, I get back in, then it moved against me, then get out locking in losses, then get back in…” When I finally started to get a grip of this lesson, Whenever I got out too early, I decided to focus on my profits! An example of having overcome this was in trade #90 short g/j I took 200 pips, I got out “without any counter candle signal” except just “fear of giving back $$”, anyway, I got out only to see the g/j moved a further 100 pips ! in the next 4h candle!! But I kept my cool, I talked to my lovely wife and she reminded me: “Did you made profits? How many pips did you pick up?” “200 I replied” “there you go! celebrate that!”…
So I have solved “half the problem” turning a nice winning trade into following “bleeding pips process”. but I am yet to let my profits run until such time that the market gives me a clear counter signal to shorten my position, close it all or tighten my stops. Like I did with EU and AU mentioned above, which turned out to be a good decision. In the case of t90 gj however, I should still be in this trade since the gj is just starting to show signs of an upcoming retracement but it hasn’t yet broken the down inner trend line. I could say that it is perhaps now to get out at 142.50 which is only 50 pips more…still …!
anyway, fellow traders, I hope this makes sense…I am not that good in translate my thoughts into paper…
I thank you all of you who have been following my live trades and hope you benefit of them as much as I have
But I enjoy doing the analysis and projections, so the 100 live trades challenge will continue but as “forecasting, tech analysis” type only. It is less “pressure” on me. I hope that I get better at showing my analysis and if you have any ideas on how my analysis can be presented clearly or what format works or doesn’t let me know.
happy trading
Here is a nice little set up. I am still “bearish” on the EUR/USD, but this doesn’t stop me from finding little set ups that are within my strategy to trade whilst the bear trend resumes.
Here is one of them, I already entered at a no so good price, I entered the 2-hr chart Bull Crown (or what I felt was one), but now there was a better entry in the 30 m bull bear crown that it just formed
so if you are up for some quick pips i find the Crown set ups highly profitable based on their r:r and also their winning rate
happy trading
Notwithstanding that I am still “Bearish” on the GBP/JPY, and that I mentioned in my posts today “I will never trade against the trend based purely on RSI Divergence and Candle Signal”…the possibility for a quick ride of what could be a retracement rally could be a medium probability win trade…only if the current 4h candle is a "HAMMER"
The most favourite of my candlesticks formations, is the Hammer but only when applied to the GBP/JPY.
I have made many of my profits with this type of signal specially when I have some western signals to back it up. Of course, a “day hammer” is the best of all, but the most expensive to, so usually those I need to just take on the 100 pips stop! and buy half of the units because I know that for the GBP/JPY I will get at least 3:1 out of those, or wait for a test of such beautiful set up.
Nevertheless, in my post …
http://forums.babypips.com/trade-journals/84693-fx-traders-challenge-100-live-trades-23.html#post818602
I clearly mentioned that I was “Waiting” for the GBP/JPY to rally up (retrace) however I was not going to trade this potential retracement for the simple reasons that (A) I don’t know how far they would go and would it be enough to give me a decent risk:reward and (B) I was thinking that the rally would commence with the Harami signal, which it hasn’t. As mentioned however, the “Hammer” is a completely different ball game!
So if it forms, I will surely hope to get in. The times when I have lost with a hammer trade is when “it wasn’t a hammer!, when I thought it was but it turned out not to be” or "when I didn’t have western signals to boot.
In this case as shown in the picture, we have: (A) RSI Divergence (B) Fib 50% support and © The Hammer if it forms
oops I was forgetting, to be a hammer, I would like it to close at the 142
Let’s see what happens huh?
Happy trading
So the EUR/USD 30m bull crown reversal paid off and it still has potential
happy trading
GBP/JPY: Look for the rally to head towards 144.50-144.60 which is a 786 of the latest down swing if the g/j downtrend would resume it should not go beyond this point. A clear bear candlestick formation should confirm this 786. A 618 candlestick formation at the 144 area could also be traded south since it would be around the Outer Down Trend Line, but in my experience once the Inner Trend Line is broken the only safest trade is the 786. At the moment however, we are in the “Buy Zone” or “Bull Zone” so I would need a very clear signal to go against this Zone…
happy trading
Nice one FXpirana - I often stopped by here to see how you were performing, and not a bad end result at all either.
Makes me wonder why you’re not perhaps continuing this and rolling it out into a full account - regardless of keeping it public or not. You’ve already illustrated the potential with various account sizes.
as mentioned the GBP/JPY was heading either for the 786 (144.40) or the 618 (144 area) I also mentioned that the 618 can be traded south if we got a candlestick confirmation, which we did with the Dark Cloud Cover at the 4hr chart. I managed to get in at 143.41 (although the timely entry was at 143.51 (close of the dcc bear candle),
Did any one out there traded this set up?
oops I just figured out how to upload images!! I will be back posting my trading ideas once more! 
