Fx traders challenge - 100 live trades

Hi there, I am fxpirana. Ever since I found out about forex trading I loved it. The volatility, the liquidity and the ability to make profits when the market is bull or bear, was quite appealing. Not to forget, the 24/7 and the flexibility and independence.
However, not everything was as easy as it looked.
How can I find the balance between FX Trading and Life? How can I find a simple method (not a system) that would be effective?

For a while I felt that it was not possible to have a really simple method and at the same time be able to stay away from the computer and enjoy life with my wife…Until now…

For the next 100 trades I enter, I will post them here as they happen. I am not much of a live stream user or youtube or those social media, more an old fashion way guy…so I will (if it is possible here) post a print screen of my method rules and also my trades as they happen LIVE.

The Benefits of my Simple Method:

  1. Focus: Less is more, quality not quantity
  2. Action: Whilst I don’t get a hundred trades a week, I get enough trades to keep me happy
  3. Growth: Using a very conservative money management approach of 2% of the last bank will still generate growth whilst ensuring preservation of capital
  4. Balance: I can still go to the beach everyday! (for as long as there is beach weather of course!) and not miss out on my trades
  5. Fun: I love trading and I want it to continue being enjoyable

Please read my posts as I will list the rules of my method which will be applied to the FX Traders Challenge - 100 Live Trades, the start up bank I will use as of today 6th Feb 2017 and the live trades I will be posting as soon as I trade them. There might be some 5-15min lag at the beginning until I get use to do this quickly!

unlimited in wealth from bull or bear
abundant and fulfilling because I dare…

happy trading, fxpirana

1 Like

Here I am attaching the rules of my method plus the starting bank of $5K
The 2% bankroll rule is calculated on the last highest bankroll
Example
Start Up Bank: $5,000
2% Risk: $100
Profit on Trade 01: $200
New Bank: $5,200
New 2% Risk: $104

and so forth…this will be obvious on my future posts…
happy trading!
fxpirana

100 Trades Challenge Method Rules.pdf (73.8 KB)

Live Trade #1 (a/b)

i hope my attachments worked otherwise you can see them in my non-commercial website
happy trading



Hi, now that I posted my trade live as it happen I can write more details here …without rushing!:slight_smile:

As per my rules, I use half of my position (1%) to target a 2:1 risk / reward, whilst the second half is used to ride the trend for as long as the trend prevails

Live Trade # 1: GBP/JPY Sold Price 140.28, Stop (GSLO) 140.77 Profit Target (TP): 139.27 (LT#1a)

In my website/blog (which is not a training site or a commercial site at all) I will be publishing my videos explaining the reasoning for the selected trade. Here I will publish the above print screen updated with the notes that relate to my Trading Method. I will do that …tomorrow! so stay tuned

Happy trading!

I’m sure some of the members here will let you know if they think it is or if any affiliate links appear. :slight_smile:
Out of curiosity, why are you mentioning it at all when everything from it is in your posts here anyway?

hi thanks for your questions…The only reason is because I have to update both, my blog and here in the forum. My blog is brand new, I started it this weekend. And I will be updating my blog first, for instance I just updated my blog with the profits of the first trade and the new stop price and I need to update this stuff “quick since i want it to be live”…I am not too verse with the latest gadgets to update everything quick and stream it live, etc…:frowning: I am now about to update the current status of my Live Trade #1 now…

So if anyone does follow my method and live trades they can wait for my posts here or check the blog to get access quicker thats basically it…

I hope this helps…
fxpirana

I didn’t have to post the analysis of my Live Trade #1 yet and half of my position already hit its target overnight (i.e. during the US session). Which is good…the market is moving faster than I am typing…:slight_smile:

[B]So here is the latest update:[/B]
[B]Live Trade #1a: Target profit has been hit 139.277 (+101 pips)
Live Trade #1b: New Stop Loss Order (GSLO) is set at 140.10 (+17 pips locked in)[/B]

How far LT#1b can go for? I don’t know, had we set the full position at 2x reward it would’ve closed our full position with 101 pips profits, but, this is not my objective. I have had many times where I “wished I set my target for 2x” whilst other times I “wished I let my profits run”…To resolve this constant dilemma I decided to split my position and go for both…and during this 100 live trades challenge, I decided to stick by this rule.

Sorry I haven’t posted the Analysis of why I picked this trade in the first place. But I am doing this now…
happy trading
fxpirana

Hi there, please visit the attachment, it has the Analysis of my Live Trade #1 I entered yesterday
If you compare the technical reasons for the entry with my Trading Method Rules, you will see it follows it to the teeth…

Current Status:
LT#1a: +101 pips
LT#1b: +17 pips locked in with new GSLO @ 140.10

Now looking for a further entry on GBP/JPY unless of course the trend reverses and closes me out

“unlimited in wealth from bull or bear
abundant and fulfilling because I dear”

happy trading
fxpirana



hi there I am considering a close on my LT#1b due to the hammer and other candle stick counter signals that have formed in the 30m, 1h and 2h of the gbp/jpy (as per print screen)
However, I just started the challenge and I am also committed to “stick to the rules” as much as possible preferably 100% for the simple reason that I want to give this method 100% chance

In the past I have been in this position, my gut was telling me to stay on yet I closed it and it continue my way
other times my gut was telling me to get out (like now) and I didn’t and my resulting profit was small (in this case it would be 17pips for the second half on top of the initial 100pips we already collected) in monetary terms

so I need to pick one side and I am sticking to “stay on” since this portion of my trade it suppose to be used to “ride the trend for as long as it prevails”…yes a more expert trader will be exiting perhaps but this is not my purpose here…
happy trading

fx piran


Results of LT#1 was a 3% increase in bank. Not as much as I would’ve liked but the market retraced enough to stop us out at our last GSLO (which had locked in already 50 pips on top of our initial 100 pips captured, making an average of +75 pips…)

Now we also entered a buy on AUDUSD as per images attached
8/2/17 12:10pm BUY AUDUSD @ 0.7629 GSLO @ 0.7599 TP1 @0.7689 TP2 @0.7768

happy trading





LT#2 Closed half position at 76.16 (-13pips) on a break of Long Term Up Trend Line

Live Trade #3: Buy GBP/JPY 140.55 GSLO 139.745 TP 141.92
happy trading
fxpirana

Live Trade #2 Closed at average price of 0.7634 due to range market / no direction
Live Trade #3 GBP/JPY Bought @ 140.55 GSLO @ 139.75

Hi there, it has been a very hectic 48 hours for me. I couldn’t post my analysis quick enough due to other life activities outside trading and the market was just too quick …

So now that I am “free rolling” in my Live Trade #3 (GBP/JPY LONG) I have a breather to explain and show my analyses related to this two live trades.

LIVE TRADE #2:

Bought AUD/USD @ 0.7629 on a convergence at the Inner Up Trend Line + 61.8 Fibonacci + Engulfing Candle formation on the 2h chart (as posted).

GSLO @ 0.7599 With our TP1 @0.7689 and an Open TP2

Comment:
When I entered this trade I didn’t know that the AUD was in the process of forming a Triangle Pattern.

I will be honest, I stay away from this type of formations because I wanted to always focus on Trend Trading. I believe in “less is more” and “quality rather than quantity” approach, hence I prefer to catch those big waves to surf them for longer… Anyway, having said that, I found myself needing to re-visit my book on these patterns simply to “avoid going against them”.

Now, with the AUD, I noticed that it went range-bound after the long entry so I decided to lighten my position in what it appeared to be a Descending Triangle (bearish), but as I said, I am not verse on range trading, so i rather be safe than sorry.

My mistake however was to half my position @ 0.7616 (-13 pips) at the bottom of the triangle. The next 2h candle saw it rise to the top of the triangle range at which time I closed the second half @ 0.7652 (+23)

Overall Result was a +5 pips (-13 + 23 all divided by 2 = +5) but I have to say it should’ve been a +23 pips had I spent more time analysing the market. Having said that, I take the break even over a loss any time. I rather be out of the market if I have loss confidence in my analysis than keep watching the market because I have doubts…

One of my mantras is “If in doubt, stay out”

LIVE TRADE #3: GBP/JPY LONG
Bought @ 140.55 GSLO1 @ 139.75 TP @142.82
We entered this position on 9/2/17 @18:15 (AUS ADELAIDE TIME) after the market had formed a morning star at the 38.2 Fibonacci which got confirmed on a break out above the last high @140.67 area.

I usually don’t trade the 382. Based on my past studies, I found that I have a much higher success rate if only trade the 618 and 786 fibonacci. Having said that, on the 8/2/17 at 2:30 (AUS TIME) the market had formed a very nice Hammer + Engulfing on the H4 and H2 respectively (actually on the H4 there also was an engulfing candle confirming the hammer) at the 786 of the larger swing. I had MISSED this entry! I was short prior to this (LT#1) and because it happened at 2:30am I was …sleeping…

What I am saying is that this was an Exit / Reverse situation. I missed going LONG. Therefore, knowing that the market had:

  1. Broken the down trend line
  2. Formed hammer + engulfing at 786 of previous larger swing
  3. Has started an up trend
    now it was a good time to enter at 382 break out… :slight_smile:

SUMMARY of LT#3:

CURRENT GSLO2 @ BREAK EVEN 140.56

WE ARE NOW FREE ROLLING…

I have had as much fun this week as I wanted, and considering that we are now at the end of the week, I have always given priority to “finish the week up rather than risking on losing my week profits on the last day…” type of psychic. I found it to be a good “Mental Boost”…

Furthermore, given that the AUD is range bound and we are now trailing towards our TP1 it is quite likely that I won’t enter a trade UNLESS the GBP/JPY forms a Shooting Start or Evening Star or a “clear” Engulfing candle at the 786 (142.92) area (as shown, which by the way, our TP is just under it). ONLY then, I might SHORT the GBP/JPY on the last day of the week…

If you take the time to analyse the H2 and H4 charts for the GBP/JPY from 1st february onwards you will noticed that the GBP has been bouncing nicely off the 786s…

1/2/17 2:30 hammers on the h2 and h4 @786
2/2/17 2:30 hammer on the h2 @ 786
8/2/17 2:30 hammer/eng on the h4 @786
say no more…

happy trading…
fxpirana




LT#03 Closed @ 141.90 +135 pips
We now closed this trade on a H2 Harami. The market is just retracing on a 618 / 786 convergence…But I am happy to exit here than letting the market bounce down, then continue to rally…
I am pretty much done for the week.
Have a great weekend all and lets have another

STATUS UPDATE WEEK #1:
TRADES = 3
WINS = 2
B/E = 1

PIPS: + 215
BANK BALANCE INCREASE: +6.5%

Happy trading :slight_smile:
fxpirana



It seems I can stay away from the market, but then again, who can, right?
Unfortunately with my broker I can’t close part of my positions, this is why I try to enter my position in two-trades of 1% each
however, with the GBP/JPY break out I entered a yesterday I wanted to get in quick during the break out so entered only 1 trade of $10,000 units. Today I closed that trade and now have re-entered a 1/3 of a position on a Engulfing 30minute as per attached chart

I am looking to the next H4 resistance / 786 level as a TP for this trade

…I will update my Bank results after this trade if it closes before the end of this week, if not I will include it as part of next weeks results…

happy trading :slight_smile:
fxpirana


LT#04: 1/3 of a position -FURTHER NOTE
Just making clear, I entered only 1/3 size of my usual positions, which means that any profits or losses in pips will be divided by 3 and added/substracted from our +215 pips profits for this week. I guess this is quite obvious right?
Anyway, happy trading
fxpirana :slight_smile:

LT#4 our 1/3 size position got stopped out -45/3 = -15pips

[B]week #1 official result +200 pips[/B]
ps I now figured out the way to close any part of my positions using my new broker, so in the future I will enter 100% size of my position without a TP, and will be manually closing partially based on my rules of 2:1 R:R and riding the trend , etc.
now I am off to my weekend…
happy trading

Hi There, as it is customary, I have reviewed my trades for the first week of our 100 live trades challenge as well as done some further research on [B]“profit taking”.[/B]
It has been bugging me that I was only going for 2/1 reward and using the stop trailing. Maximising profits is as important as picking the right trades, and I have revisit this issue quite a few times in the past.

Based on past trades I found out the following:
12% of trades reached >1x
20% of trades reached >2x
28% of trades reached >3x
40% of trades reached >5x up to 16x

So how can I maximise my profits…I run 3 scenarios against half pos @2x and the other half @:
#1) Use Cancel/Replace trailing stop
#2) Exiting upon a H4/H2 counter candle signals or moving the stop tighter upon noticing this strong signals
The results were an increase of 22% and 50% in profits respectively

Now, knowing that 88% of my trades will reach 2x or better gave me a lot more confidence on what I stated in my method rules.
Furthermore, now I have confirmed that if I continue trailing the stop for the remaining half of my position I will be able to ride those big trends when they happened …which were reasonably frequent…and increase my profitability by about 20% or more.

HOWEVER, This approach of 50/50 is OK when our investment amount is at least $200. It is not “motivational” when it is only $100 since we can miss out on making $200 per trade and only make $150 (like it has happened last week) until such trends occur.

So, I am looking at the following temporary approach for next week:
Risk Amount ~$150
Target for full position 2x

Once our bank has increased by 10% we will increase our Risk Amount to $200 at which time we will get back to the 50/50 approach…

I hope that this insight helps others on their own trading…

happy trading

Buy 142.05 GSLO 141.19 TP 143.91
Please note GSLO was moved up to 141.19 right after entry

The market moved rapidly this morning, way before my start of day trading and pretty much disrupting my breakfast.
Part of my journey towards a professional forex trader involves “mindfulness”, to achieve mindfulness I practice Zen meditation and mindful breathing. Putting this in simple terms, means to “enjoy each moment”, when I am drinking coffee, I am here, drinking coffee, when I am eating my breakfast, I am here, eating breakfast…and NOT… thinking about my next trade.

I have set my trading time to commence with the opening of the Tokyo market, but today the market had already formed a engulfing candle by 9:30 on the hourly chart which couldn’t be overlooked.

Contrarily, this one candle was of 100 pips! So I have to be a bit cautious.

My aim this week is to reach or surpass the +10% bank increase. Once I have achieved this first goal, I will then increase my trading risk to $200 - $250. But my next trade at this level must be a very strong trade meeting ALL of my criteria including a 786 fibonacci not a 618.
I consider the 786 + Hammer or 786 + Shooting Star in the GBP/JPY of a large swing a “very strong trade” that I can’s miss. It is the type of trade I am looking for at our new level (after we reached the +10% bank profit)


SELL AUDUSD 0.7665 GSLO 0.7699 TP 0.7615 (1/2 position)