steve's Trades
Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: steve's Trades

  1. #1

    Default steve's Trades

    I thought I would post my trades as I take them. This my first trade since becoming active in the forum, no doubt the way i will present them will change any ideas really apreciated. I am looking to build a trading team so I am keen to talk about these ideas and hopefully improve my trading
    Trade 1 Long EURNZD.
    Like most of my trades this was taken on the 4 hour chart (short term swing) after a pullback. The pullback in this case was a little shallow, less than the 38% I look for. Stop loss had to go in at 100 pips to cover the swing low meaning that first target is 300 pips. A high target butnot unreasonable for this pair.

    Technical analysis. The pair broke out of a downward channel on March the 3rd having been in the channel since August 2015. I have marked the top of this breakout as wave 1 of a 5 wave advance, after a small pullback stochastics and RSI have become favourable to enter a long trade, the trade was opened when it closed above my ema cluster.

    Fundamentals: I keep my own surprise index which has been falling for the NZD and suffered from particularly bad trade data this morning, this poor data is likely to keep the RBNZ in wait and see mode. The value of the NZD has always been its high credit rating and high returns, both of these seem to be at risk likely reducing the intrinsic value of the kiwi. On the contrary the surprise index for europe is looking very good and todays election result releaves much of the political concerns that have been keeping a lid on the euro.
    I have attached an image of the trade any comments appreciated
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  2. #2
    Trade 2 Short Dow Jones Industrial
    I have been looking to sell the US and European stock markets since last summer, I have had very little chance to do it. The price action since the FOMC announcement yesterday gives credence to my view that a correction is playing out, probably of minor degree with it likely that new highs will be achieved however I do believe that the entire bull market is in its final stages and will be looking to sell the markets aggressively when the possibility arrives.

    Technicals: technicals here are quite clear, if you agree that the wave pattern is corrective then a break of trend line is a clear trade trigger, falling RSI, Momentum and Stochastics help the bearish call and the break below my ema cluster is an important part of my trading plan.

    Fundamentals: The rise on yesterdays FOMC makes little sense, the FOMC did exactly as expected and did not change their projections. Rate rises are rarely good for stocks and if the FED are now in regular rate hike mode stocks will find it harder to make headway. When the FED start to seriously discuss reducing their balance sheet it is likley to have a significant effect on stocks. Finally I do not buy the Trump rally, I can see no evidence yet of the new administrations ability to deliver on its promises nor i am I clear exactly what those promises are.

    Picture attached, comments appreciated
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  3. #3
    Trade Update
    Trade 2 closed for +20 pips
    Divergence with European stock markets, which allmade new highs yesterday, adds significant doubt to this trade. Caution Caution Caution.

    Trade 1: closed for +50 pips. Pullback has crossed trendline that my stop was following.
    Last edited by Steve at bagehotsway; 03-17-2017 at 06:03 AM.

  4. #4

    Default Trade 3

    Trade 3
    Short GBPNZD.
    Pair appears to be moving in a fairly large range,shown as a red and a green line on the chart. GBP is super volatile of late so trade has to be half size to give a reasonable risk. Technicals are good and, to be honest, most opportunities to short the GBP have been profitable of late. RBNZ are due this week and I expect they will become less dovish in line with most other central banks
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  5. #5

    Default Trade 4 Long EURNZD

    I return to this trade with a slightly better wave count. A clear abc reversal pattern for wave 2 followed by a break higher which passes my cluster and provides good stochastics. The previous trade was succesful but did not make the progress I might have hoped for.
    RBNZ is due 8pm GMT Wednesday evening which might be a good time to exit this trade however the RBA minutes released this morning, which are often correlated did not move the currency in a positive way. I may wait and watch the press conference making a decision as i go. Of course it may not make it that far.
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  6. #6

    Default Trade 4 Alternative view

    After some pretty poor price action I looked at this trade again and developed an alternative wave pattern. A tringle could be forming for wave 2 and the current up move may only be wave d as shown on the image below. If it is only wave d the pair should find resistance at the orange line ( around 1.543) if wave 3 is getting started the pair should move through this resistance in an impulsive manner. I will watch carefully to see what happens. The good news is that both of these counts call for higher prices in the short term
    Attached Images Attached Images  

Forum Sponsors

Similar Threads

  1. Number of trades for good backtest?
    By skylar in forum Free Forex Trading Systems
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 06-14-2010, 04:57 PM
  2. Yen edges lower on renewed sell off in carry-trades.
    By ACMforex in forum The Analyst Arena
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 01-26-2007, 07:31 AM
  3. frequency of trades
    By n_aftab in forum Newbie Island
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 12-30-2006, 04:17 AM
  4. Friday trades
    By dzver in forum Newbie Island
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 12-15-2006, 05:38 PM
  5. Types of Trades
    By ladyviper in forum Newbie Island
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 04-27-2006, 09:38 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"A journey of a thousand miles begin with a single step."
Confucius