Randomness

Almost no one can win on something thats RANDOM. To show you how random the price change is, go to excel, type zero on cell A1, then on cell A2 type the formula =A1+norminv(rand(),0,1), then copy cell A2 downwards to as many cells you want, say 500 cells down, then make a line graph out of it. Like what you see? now press F9 for the random values to be reevaluated, and keep pressing F9 to your hearts content. You’ll see extremely familiar charts. Hey, many even have the Elliot waves, 2-3 point resistance and support, head-and-shoulders, and so on… and thats from random numbers! cant really stress enough that almost no system (simple or complex) can consistently win at forex, thats because there’s no mathematical expression to exactly compute the next random number, thats why its called RANDOM…
But as you people may have noticed, I said “almost”. Because the only thing close enough to getting few bucks out of forex is SCALPING. But even scalping is a pain in the a**; namely slow connections and your broker using the VIRTUAL DEALER PLUGIN on you…

Now, if anybody out there can say that I’m out of my mind WRONG and has made consistent decent profits from forex trading alone, then PLEASE enlighten me…

Those elliot waves you saw in randomness, are predictable then IF you can find them in FX charts

—vague—

You contradicted yourself by saying you can gain money by scalping.

Obviously not random then.

redsensei - “random” means that prior history is ignored. You cannot tell me that in forex prior history is ignored. So if we are in a major uptrend, you are saying the next day is random. You can also predict levels of high volatility, eg non farms announcements … this isn’t random. To be consistently profitable, you just need to find one strategy, and most likely a simple one will do that has a higher probability of happening TOGETHER with a good risk: reward. You can have a strategy that works 30% of the time in your favour but if your risk: reward is 1:3 (ie risk 1 pip to make 3), you’ll be profitable. You seem good on spreadsheets, run the numbers.

:35: Lots of people agree with you. Weather they are mathematically random, I don’t think so. But yes it is easy to make a random chart that looks like a financial chart.

But in any case you are trying to decipher charts with out any information. It is like trying to read a map when you dont know where you are and dont know where you are going. Lots of people do it, me included.

If you had all the information why they moved (who placed what trade and why), you would say it is obvious. Of course you will never have that information.
You can see many reasons the market moves. I just saw an increase in the $USD because there was good news out of the USA. That is not random. But if you did not know why it moved, you could say it was random.

I can enlighten you on my trading.
There are 2 main points.

  1. You have to find the patterns in the markets if you want to trade technically. It is not easy to find consistently predictable patterns, but they are there if you look search hard enough. You wont find them following the sheep. Don’t get stuck on 1 system. Keep looking for patterns. I use EA’s because I don’t know any easier and quicker ways to test strategies. But weather it is automated or not, it is just the same.

  2. I try to predict which way the markets will go. Listen to the reserve bank heads, watch the news, look at the big picture. Study what has happened in the past. Look for economic cycles. Don’t listen to economists that just want to get on TV, etc. Look for the unexpected.

eg, if you think AUD is too high and the reserve bank is looking for ways to push it down, only trade it short. If you think the US economy is in good condition, only go long USD.

You know this market is not random… You just must be getting frustrated with losses.

no contradiction. read it again. notice the “almost” phrase.

good point mrchilled.
the stategy your stating here is basically, trading the news, which brings about a huge burst of volatility in a relatively short time specially if the expected deviation is met. but, the brokers know that, that’s why they ramp up the spread tenfold to ward off stradlers. Also, when stradling far enough from the current price, chances are less profits from the spike’s left overs, or get whiplashed with losses. Sometimes also even if the news result deviation is met, the surge goes in the opposite direction.

so you want people to prove to you it’s possible to make money trading?

It seems like this “debate” is a poorly masked attempt for your ego to find some salvation. You couldn’t be right about your trade ideas, so the only thing left is the idea that NOBODY can be right. Is it more soothing to your ego to assume everyone is failing, rather than to realize the truth… that it is YOU that is failing?

hi ms goldylox. thanks for a very sensible reply.if your system works for you then congratulations. i’ve tried it though but to no avail. regarding the “who placed the trade and why”, its correct that we cant have that explicit information because there’s no logbook for all the trading brains in the world :slight_smile: . the closest thing that i know of to accomplish this is to monitor the current volume of buyers and sellers (spot and pending)for a particular instrument in real time is by having a level 2 feed which is used by the few scalpers who make real money. me excluded because a level 2 feed is usually not free. and i dont want to get into that.

i do believe that high impact news move the markets but is not guaranteed in the direction of the news even if deviation is met, and after the dust has settled, the darkness starts to fill in again.

i am still in the notion that price movements is GENERALLY random. you could enlighten me some more if you want :slight_smile:

lastly, just for laughs, when critters around me hear the word “predict”, they say “hey you! don’t do gambling!” :slight_smile:

thanks and may you have more profitable trades.

for three years i’ve converted $250 to $4k+(non demo). not a groundbreaking feat if you ask me, and maybe your right that i’m frustrated, on why only this much of a profit. but not really, i have a good job at an oil and gas company and make a decent salary, but that’s out of the story. i’m looking for a way to beat the banks/brokers or at least level the playing field, no matter how too far fetched that maybe, but i’m still trying…

my aim here is to have someone proove/convince me that my position on the idea that price movements are GENERERALLY random is WRONG. can you do that? would appreciate it if you could…

read my replies to the other comments :slight_smile:
good day to you.

Doesn’t look random to me…

So you’ve supposedly made 1600% profit in 3 years… And in your first post you ask for anyone who has made “decent consistent profit” to enlighten you…??? What is wrong with you…

thanks for the reply. i sure every trading individual has googled ways to defeat this “randomness”. and luckily i’ve encountered some good ones. but im still looking for the better “solution”. i could share it to you if you like, that is if i finish it though…

for me decent profit means it can be self sustaining. i dont think i can live for 3 years with only $3750+ of added income. but hey, everyone has his own dictionary. thanks for the reply. good day.

So whose fault is it that they only use such little capital… If you use 10k in capital… A very modest amount in this market… You would have had 160k right now… 53k a year…

If you’ve traded for 3 years and have not figured out that you can’t make a living on an account of only a few thousand dollars then you should definitely be sticking to your day job.

double facepalm

as i’ve said, im looking for the better “solution” to the randomness. if i do complete it i’l definitely ramp up the capital. as for now il just watch the P’s and L’s as they come, testing my incomplete “solution”.

Whatever dude… 1600% capital gain and whining about market behavior doesn’t add up.

exits thread