Skill vs. luck in Forex trading - Page 2

View Poll Results: How is Forex trading like (skill vs. luck)

Voters
23. You may not vote on this poll
  • 10 (like chess)

    5 21.74%
  • 9

    3 13.04%
  • 8

    6 26.09%
  • 7

    3 13.04%
  • 6

    2 8.70%
  • 5

    1 4.35%
  • 4

    1 4.35%
  • 3

    1 4.35%
  • 2

    0 0%
  • 1 (like slots)

    1 4.35%
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Results 11 to 20 of 35
  1. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    50
    I would say its more complex then chess and more simple to play with only one rule just win.

    In chess game is over when you checkmate or stalemate , but in forex you cannot end game it just continues and you can never win over market , you need to adjust your self with it.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    India
    Posts
    126
    I like to rely on the Forex Trading with the help of skills, without skills even luck won't work in Forex.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Posts
    476
    I think it’s somewhere between 7 and 8. You need a lot of skill and knowledge to be successful, and just a little bit of luck so you don’t get caught in random spike and whipsaw events. Still, luck is not something a trader should or can rely on.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Posts
    5
    Yes, I think there is a mixture - a certain amount of skill is required to deal with the fact that some of it is down to luck. We cannot control what sort of a market we are facing asnt there is a certain amount of being in the right place at the right time.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Singapore
    Posts
    142
    In a coin flip, probability of a coin turning up head or tail is 50%.

    Keyword here is "probability".

    Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.

    Another keyword here is "measure".

    Measure is define as ascertaining the size, amount, or degree of (something) by using an instrument or device marked in standard units.

    In Forex, trader attempt to project a future price using one or many metrics.

    End of the day, the truth is that we trader are actually trying to be a fortune teller.

    Henceforth, comes the question, is the future forcastable?

    The sad answer is "NO". However, traders are self motivated by their desire for the money to succeed.

    We trader have choosen to place ourself in our current path of playing the GUESSING game.

    Trader who have got the future right more times than wrong are skillful.

    They are people who can make clever guesses using some form of metrics.

    Traders who have gotten the future wrong more times than right but still make money end of the day are LUCKY.

    They must have manipulated the lot sizing and have gotten it right when they traded a huge amount.

    Then there are traders who got it right more times than wrong but still loses money.

    They must have traded a huge amount when they are wrong.

    So, skill can be define as

    1) ability to make clever guesses using certain metrics,
    2) ability to follow good money management rules to mitigate risk.

    Luck can be define as
    1) making money when you are wrong
    2) losing money when you are right

    Now this is a confusing situation. Is forex more skill or luck?

    I think it is a paradoxical situation. And relative question.

    It seems that forex can be EITHER more skill or more luck for different individuals.

    Therefore i conclude that whether forex is more skill or luck depends on individual perception on the matter.

    It depends on their belief. My personal take is that if you are making money, Forex is both skill 100% and luck 100%.

    And if you are losing money, Forex is both skill 0% and luck 0%. It can only be 0% or 100%, there is no in between.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    95
    Its a bit of both, but you move the odds to your favour by watching and learning..... (I voted 8)

    Perfect example... Market Direction... I was clueless when I started.. even resorted to rolling dice to chose the direction I was going to trade.... I now get this correct approx. 91% when I trade....

    HOW... Use a Heikin Hashi Candle Indicator or Chart... set to the 4h/8h/12h time frame.. (1h absolute minimum) Just checked and it also works on the 5min TF as well although I wouldn't recommend.

    Estimate the next candle (market direction) by copying the preceding candle's colour/direction and mark down 1 for each correct direction and 0 for every incorrect colour/direction ie: change. Repeat for 20, 30, 40 candles and then calculate the percentage of 0 to 1's (correct / incorrect)....

    That's nearly 50% of the guessing game out of the way.... Check!
    Last edited by BabyPips_001; 02-09-2017 at 02:55 AM.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    India
    Posts
    126
    Yeah, we need both skill and luck to survive, but to rely on the totally on the Luck would be a very dangerous decision.

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    32
    I voted (10)

    I've been trading over 11 years, I have a high probability success rate % but my trading plan is not simple. it is very complicated.
    It took alot of effort on my part to get here, 5 hours + a day studying these markets.
    It is alot like chess on my level, with little room for error.

    I disagree with most of the posts on this site, but I'll still come here to see what people think.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    India
    Posts
    126
    You need to have both, skill and luck in Forex. As the market is unpredictable, thus it will be over luck to get us that situations.

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Posts
    476
    Quote Originally Posted by Whack Attack View Post
    You need to have both, skill and luck in Forex. As the market is unpredictable, thus it will be over luck to get us that situations.
    The whole point of trading is being able to predict the market in order to profit. If a person is relying on luck they’re not trading, they’re gambling, and gamblers generally can’t profit over a long period of time.

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