Skill vs. luck in Forex trading

Its a bit of both, but you move the odds to your favour by watching and learning… (I voted 8)

Perfect example… Market Direction… I was clueless when I started… even resorted to rolling dice to chose the direction I was going to trade… I now get this correct approx. 91% when I trade…

HOW… Use a Heikin Hashi Candle Indicator or Chart… set to the 4h/8h/12h time frame… (1h absolute minimum) Just checked and it also works on the 5min TF as well although I wouldn’t recommend.

Estimate the next candle (market direction) by copying the preceding candle’s colour/direction and mark down 1 for each correct direction and 0 for every incorrect colour/direction ie: change. Repeat for 20, 30, 40 candles and then calculate the percentage of 0 to 1’s (correct / incorrect)…

That’s nearly 50% of the guessing game out of the way… Check!

Yeah, we need both skill and luck to survive, but to rely on the totally on the Luck would be a very dangerous decision.

I voted (10)

I’ve been trading over 11 years, I have a high probability success rate % but my trading plan is not simple. it is very complicated.
It took alot of effort on my part to get here, 5 hours + a day studying these markets.
It is alot like chess on my level, with little room for error.

I disagree with most of the posts on this site, but I’ll still come here to see what people think.

1 Like

You need to have both, skill and luck in Forex. As the market is unpredictable, thus it will be over luck to get us that situations.

The whole point of trading is being able to predict the market in order to profit. If a person is relying on luck they’re not trading, they’re gambling, and gamblers generally can’t profit over a long period of time.

Skill is all you need. But most don’t last long enough to acquire it.

If luck was important, the success rate would be better than the miserable 10% it stands at. Assuming a mixed group of people must be equally prone to good luck as much as bad, the success rate should be near 50%.

Using the same 50% win lose equally prone success rate… A mixed group of Brokers win 90% of the pool as only 10% of miserable retail traders are supposedly making a profit… very, very lucky indeed…

For the Brokers…

I like to rely on skill more than luck, though both factor affects the Forex Market, but working with skills, can earn you better than relying on luck.

Yes skill is much important than luck . Luck matters some time when we win more than our expectations but we can not just rely on Luck. We can depend on our skill any time when are going to trade because it is real thing that works for us.

Oooh my.
I rely on my skills mainly, but if there would be some luck… why not? :slight_smile:

There are many types of trading, but I think to rely on luck will be a very bad decision.

I agree with you! Forex is a game of skill and practice. Though luck is an invincible factor but we cannot rely on luck in trading. Traders can be successful only by acquiring knowledge and applying that knowledge to predict the market movements with a proper trading plan.

Only skills and knowledge can help you to be successful in trading. Luck does not allow you to make consistent profit and you can not always depend on luck. So getting some knowledge will be helpful.

Becoming knowledgeable and experienced is not just helpful, it’s vital if you want to be profitable. Luck, when it appears, is just an added bonus.

There is no competition between luck and skill. Skill is good in all conditions as good or in bad market because we can handle it with skill. However we can not bring luck for us when we need it. Skill is very precious , it is key to success.

Interestingly, all of knowledgeable Forex traders are lucky here! On the other hand, low skilled Forex traders are unlucky when they try to trade seriously with their live trading investment! Basically, there is no secret of success! Be knowledgeable and be successful! I worked hard in my demo, even I didn’t consider the low percentage of successful Forex traders in Forex, as a result now I am able to earn money manually! So, success is not impossible here, just believe on yourself!

YouTube trading is mostly luck :slight_smile:

What do ninety five% of forex investors do wrong?

This list beneath is not the total list but it indicates a number of the matters ninety five% of foreign exchange traders do:

insufficient investment
lack of proper hazard management
over buying and selling
revenge trading
loss of emotional manipulate.
No endurance to attend for proper trading setups
no trading plan
get wealthy quick mentality
counting pips rather than specializing in account boom over a long term period.
Can not receive trading loses as part of the manner

Skill is better than luck in the Forex.

The question is: can you lose money in trading on purpose? the answer is yes. Therefore, it is a skilled game. However, skilled athletes, poker players etc tends to be more lucky than less skilled.

Yes agreed, low skill trader need to Polish up their skill in order to be more successful in trading. Alot lost cos they jump into real trading without enough skill n depend on luck. If that the case casino is much better option for them. Alot of them when lost they tend to turn into revenge trading…