What will happen on Mon AM now UK has specified a date for Euro referendum?

Will the pound go stronger or weaker?
The ‘in’ campaign have said the pound will lose 20-30% of it’s value if they leave after the vote in June but skeptics have said this is scare mongering techniques and the economy will be stronger.
What will happen on Monday morning and the time leading to the June vote?
Thoughts…

Good question…

Refer back to the Scotland referendum and the GBP charts to find the answers…

Currently there are plans to ‘protect the City’ as part of the UKinEU deal, so the markets may not be as fearful… Even if the referendum won a Brexit vote, it would take a certain period to implement it, during which financial and capital managers would have sufficient time to strategise for the new reality. The Scottish referendum scare did little for the Pound, so I see this as a similar scenario…

I hope to hear from other forum members with their views too…

Great topic…

Thanks PipMeHappy. No one else replied but I see an article has appeared about the matter:

Update on The Brexit Saga: Referendum Date Set

Just keep selling Gbp, the market dislikes uncertainty, there are two right now, first the vote outcome, and secondly the uncertainty that would come with exit, both are sell scenarios.

The market expected a PM agreement, but I’d say most exited any longs on Friday, so there will be a gap down, watch for the fill, if it happens.

The Boris factor will add to the sells, he will become the exits figurehead. This is way bigger than the Scotland vote from a market viewpoint in relation to Gbp specifically, as always price will tell us more.

It will cause more fear as the Brexit isnt only exit from EU. Brexit means aswell faling out of TTIP the free trade zone agreenment between USA and EU. That will make the GBP even less “respected” or atrractive for foreign exchanges, reduce volumes sooner or later and diminish the “importance” of the GBPas a world reserve currency even more then it already has been the last years since world war 2

anyway im pretty sure its only again panic making. we all know its cameron creating panic to misslead from his bad running of the country.

the newest indications show:

48% for staying in EU
33% for leaving EU
19% dont care at all

I agree, TurboNero: like Scoxit and Grexit before, sadly it is all a political manoeuvre that either people are not at all sure they want, or that the politicians have to back down from once they realise it is folly.

It is like giving up on a good job out of capriciousness, on a childish whim, just because you do not get on with your manager… Following your heart must be tempered with reason…

I am not at all sure that the markets care much… They are more worried about wider risk-off winds from emerging markets, China, and commodities… We are basically living on borrowed time before the next stock market downmove: if Brexit won’t light the fuse, something else will…

Pipme, the market cares, UK exporters/importers at present do business with the EU seamlessly, there are no tariffs, no export documents, no customs formalities, the transactions are not even recorded as an ‘export’, merely as a ‘disposal’ to Intrastat, just record the code for the item and the amount and file that electronically each month.

I can remember pre EU, big difference, much more time consuming and expensive to sell something to Europe in those days.

That’s just a tiny aspect of intra EU that business/the market is aware of, there is much more that will get debated I’m sure - anyways check the reaction from the trade bodies to figure how the market will view what’s up ahead, they are most often the best market pulse.

I’m not just so sure about a big down move on stocks, was just watching a video by Paul Tudor Jones back in 1987 (the one that he has tried many times to get off the internet), in that video he likewise predicted something similar, it never happened, but he still made money, and lots of it lol.

You have a point, Peterma, and an important one… I am just slightly ‘Boris bored’ and really see the whole media frenzy as a fog that hides the real issue for people who speculate (like me, a small retail trader)… I have to be skeptical because it is in the nature of independent traders to make their own views and sometimes be contrarian… I am really in a similar position (scaled down manifold relative to account size) to the characters in the Big Short…

theres one good thing about the predictability of the crowds psychology.

people and especially crowds dont like changes, the EU has been accepted by the people since decades. Going out is a change, so it is very unlikely that the Brexit will happen. Before Brexit im pretty sure denmark or luxembourg would leave the EU

The biggest problem is how many/few voters can be bothered to get out and vote.
When Britain voted to join the EU the turnout was around 60-65%, a low turnout at the time.
Nowadays we’ll be lucky to get anywhere near that figure, so regardless of what pollsters say, the winners will be those that motivate their side to vote and in this country it only takes some bad weather to mess things up and, possibly, let the underdogs win.
Hence the uncertainty, hence the Gbp weakness

Yep, the uncertainty is what is tradable.

EU/UK trade is around 229billion, part of the reason why Eur/Gbp has become a good strength indicator for Gbp.

Moodys are negative on a Brexit, Fitch not just quite as negative, but with that one big rider - “if trade deals were secured”.

Markets will usually trade ‘ifs’ negatively, will be interesting to see if they can force cable up some more.

You can bet that the trade deals will not be secured/preserved by 100%.

The UK is dong its pickingsof what it wants and doesnt want from EU with blackmailing and constant crying of leaving EU that most EU citizen aswell are sick of that behaviour. Switzerland was picking its pros for 30 years from EU and 3 years ago Brussel started to take off many of their benefits they had from EU which were one sided.

A similar mood you have in Brussels when it comes to the UK. Politicians in Brussels are also bored of listening to blackmails, threads and picking what UK would like and where UK will stayout because it doesnt suite them.

The “if” trade deals can be secured is pretty much out of the question as they can not be secured.

When catalunia wanted (or still wants) to seperate from Spain, Brussels immediately told them that trade, EU membership and all other major trade unions are out of the question for several years for them. The same happened to schotland, brussels immediately confronted schotland with the truth that it will not be a member of the EU without prior transition period and that it will aswell be no member of trade agreenments for quite some time - thereby Brussels giving help to London that UK stays together (now london trying to pay back with threads).

What London is doing is a tactic its doing since 20 years, every now and then questioning its membership in the EU. While in fact there are not many countries that profitet from the EU like UK.

I agree, Turbo: it is all a smokescreen for a Tory party losing momentum and looking for a fake mission to reunite its divided factions…

There is absolutely no reason why Britain should leave Europe now…

I am sick of these ‘plastic politics’… The real issue is employment and social cohesion, not leaving the E.U.

Here Are The Numbers That Show Who `Brexit’ Would Hurt Most - Bloomberg Business

That was Feb 21 - minus 2200 pips ago.

What’s up ahead? - the next stage could well see pressure being applied by some politicians in the ruling party on the BOE to raise rates.

Sadly these same politicians do not recognize that they are part of the problem in that they are adding to and prolonging the very uncertainty that’s being sold.

So my stance of ‘keep selling the pound’ remains.