EURUSD Top Down Analysis

I’m now preparing my charts for the week. My weekly outlook on the pairs on my watch-list is as follows:

Bearish: AU, EG, EJ, EU, NU
Bullish: GN, UC
Wait/Mixed: GU

I usually wait for the US open on Monday to confirm where change in disposition needs be effected. Trade safe, trade well.

I love this quote from Mark Minervini as it speaks to the principle of top-down analysis and market trapping:

‘The less time I am in the market, the less risk I am taking.’ – Mark Minervini, a Market Wizard.

[B]Tip:[/B] Focus on trading well, the money will come.

[B]Tip:[/B] If you are going to trap the market successfully, watch price action at daily and weekly S/R zones, then use the significant signal candles that present themselves there for trade trigger.

[B]Nuggets: [/B] Don’t use too many technical indicators or technical indicators that don’t perform complementary roles. Use a few (for me a max of 3) complementary technical indicators as part of a few significant confluence factors to track, stalk and trap the market/price action.

EURUSD is at a weekly resistance zone but there is room for further northward move, GBPUSD is retesting the weekly pivot which corresponds with a weekly resistance zone possibly for a further southward push, USDCAD is making a bearish push through a weekly support zone. Trade well.

Although there is a bearish streak in the EURUSD on the 4-hour chart at the moment, the RSI on higher time frames (daily and weekly) portends a potential for some northward push. GBPUSD is still bearish and currently testing a daily support zone. Trade safe.

[B]Tip:[/B] Trapping the market involves building a trading edge over the market on a consistent basis. This is not a matter of winning 5-10 trades but showing consistency over many (say hundreds of ) trades during which the trader’s net results show remarkable profit which is sustainable.

So does [I]any[/I] kind of profitable trading, surely - more or less by definition? Nobody’s going to profit consistently without having a trading edge over the market? :15:

Yes, that’t the point. However, many traders focus on temporary gains or the few trades they make money without working on the rules and system that form the basis of building long-term profitable trading edge over the market. Trade safe.

Does having a profitable trading edge over the market mean that a trader will not experience some losing streaks? If you were to apply what you learnt recently for better trading, which aspects of your trading would you focus upon?

If a bearish rejection candle forms at the USDCAD monthly pivot, that should be a significant signal for a bearish trade. That location is also in confluence with the 50 Fib level. Trade safe.


Once you develop a functional trading system, much of what is required for successful trading is about discipline.

The GU is potentially northward-moving for about 120 pips to the next resistance on the weekly chart around the 1.49 area unless fundamentals cause an upset. But I’m not trading GU today as I have a number of positions I am monitoring. Trade safe.


When your trade goes awry, rather than going nuts steel yourself for brighter and better trading.

Now watching GBPNZD. A retracement to the WP, which is in confluence with the next weekly resistance zone, seems to have a good potential for a southward trade. Same can be said of GBPJPY, which is also in confluence with the 62 Fib level. Trade safe.

What did you learn regarding FX trading last week, particularly from the UK referendum on the EU? For me, I learnt to remain calm and focused. In fact, this is critical to trapping the market. Trade safe.

UCAD currently testing the 200 EMA on daily chart and in the region of a weekly resistance. It should be interesting how price action pans out. Likely potential for a southward push. Trade safe.

Talking about the EURUSD, if the price action on the 4 hour chart rejects the weekly S/R zone being currently tested, then a reversal is much likely in the cards. Otherwise the bearish disposition persists.

Bearish tone persists on the EURUSD but timing is key. If the price action re-tests and bounces off the 4-H resistance zone (1.1100 to 1.11260), which is also aligned with a weekly resistance zone, the potential for a successful bearish trade will be greater. Trade safe.