EURUSD Top Down Analysis - Page 35

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Results 341 to 346 of 346
  1. #341
    Join Date
    May 2016
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    617
    GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

    The descending trend that the pair kicked off in July 2007 is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, a major retracement of the July 2007 drop was initiated in November 2012 and peaked around the 61.8 Fib zone in June 2015. Price action was sideways for a few weeks in that zone before it driove southwards. Thereafter, price action produced two major descending price waves with pullbacks between November 2015 and December 2016,; the most recent pullback being around the 23.6 Fib zone. Price action is now respecting an inner descending trendline from the high of April 2015. Although the immediate support is about 100 pips away, the technicals and order flow context on the weekly time frame indicate a slow down of further bearish move. The bear candlesticks are not significant in size and bull candlesticks jostle for recognition. The bears may have to overcome the support formed by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 before being favoured for a further southward move. There is another support zone around 134.073 which needs be contended with by the bears.

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    On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of November 2016, which is the 23.6 Fib retracement of the decline from the high of July 2007. Recent price action was around a zone that has held as an S/R zone in the past and created the Jan 12, 2017 gap (khaki rectangle). Although sellers have been very much in control since the beginning of April, price action is now at the end of an ascending triangle created by the descending trendline and an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of October 2016. Should sellers break the support line of the triangle, the initial target is likely to be the low of the Brexit drop, around 133.130. Although the technicals on the H4 are in favour of a further bearish continuation, it may be better to wait for price action to retest the immediate resistance zone (khaki colour) for confidence in a southward drive .

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    I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

  2. #342
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    617
    USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

    The pair began a declining trend in June 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action began a major retracement in September 2016 and peaked to around the 76.4 Fib zone in November 2016. Since then, price action has made one descending wave with a pullback and the second price wave southwards is in play. The last weekly candlestick was a strong bearish engulfing candle that breached two support zones and closed shy of the next support by just 54 pips. This shows a strong intent on the part of sellers.

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    On the H4 time frame, a major descending trendline has held for a while but price action has moved lower to respect an inner descending trendline (magenta colour), representing an increase in momentum. The price momentum hit and slightly breached a support line created by an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. The last two sessions on the H4 time frame last week saw a feeble attempt by the bulls to push upwards; ending with formation of relatively tiny doji-like candlesticks. Based on the order flow context on the H4 time frame, this portends a further bearish move before any retracement. An initial target, perhaps before the pullback, is likely to be near 108.000, around the immediate support; which is about 78 pips southwards.

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    I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

  3. #343
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    617
    GBPJPY Technical Update

    Quote Originally Posted by TrapTheMarket View Post
    USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

    The pair began a declining trend in June 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action began a major retracement in September 2016 and peaked to around the 76.4 Fib zone in November 2016. Since then, price action has made one descending wave with a pullback and the second price wave southwards is in play. The last weekly candlestick was a strong bearish engulfing candle that breached two support zones and closed shy of the next support by just 54 pips. This shows a strong intent on the part of sellers.

    Name:  USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Apr._16,_2017.jpg
Views: 3
Size:  20.9 KB

    On the H4 time frame, a major descending trendline has held for a while but price action has moved lower to respect an inner descending trendline (magenta colour), representing an increase in momentum. The price momentum hit and slightly breached a support line created by an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. The last two sessions on the H4 time frame last week saw a feeble attempt by the bulls to push upwards; ending with formation of relatively tiny doji-like candlesticks. Based on the order flow context on the H4 time frame, this portends a further bearish move before any retracement. An initial target, perhaps before the pullback, is likely to be near 108.000, around the immediate support; which is about 78 pips southwards.

    Name:  USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Apr._16,_2017.jpg
Views: 3
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    I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
    If you are tracking GBPJPY notice that price action retraced to the area I indicated (khaki colour) on the H4 time frame on Sunday and rejected it southwards with over 100 pips.

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  4. #344
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    617
    Here's a video you may learn something from if you want to trap the market.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msJg...TFXVg&index=19

  5. #345
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    617
    AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

    On the weekly time frame, the pair is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) formed by the high of 2014. After the price action created three price waves to the downside, it initiated a major retracement in April 2016 which culminated at the 50 Fib zone in February 2017 and validated the descending trendline from 2014. Price action operated sideways within the 50 Fib zone for sometime in March. Since then the bears took control and pushed the price southwards. Last week, the price action touched the support line created by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 but the weekly candlestick formed last week was doji-like and thus not a decisive move. Price action would need to breach the support line before an impetus for further bearish move can be seen. Should price action succeed in this, the immediate target is likely to be the next support around 79.278. The technicals on the weekly time frame are in support of a bearish mood.

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    On the daily time frame, price action since March 2017 has been operating in a descending channel (dark violet colour) but since the beginning of April the price action has moved to the lower half of the channel, creating a pennant-like formation, portending an increase in momentum southwards. It should be noted that the most recent price action is within a zone which has flipped as an S/R role for a while. As there is a confluence of barriers in this zone, price action may struggle before it successfully breaks below the zone. This is likely to expose the next support zone, around 79.278, as the likely target.

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    I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
    Last edited by TrapTheMarket; Yesterday at 04:21 PM.

  6. #346
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    617
    USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

    A down trend has persisted on the weekly time frame since January 2016. The trend witnessed a retracement in October 2016 which peaked at the 86.8 Fib level in December 2016. Since then price action has been on a southward drive but with strong bullish resistance. Overall, price action is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) on the weekly time frame. However, the nearest support is provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 2016. Last week a ‘spinning top’ like candlestick was formed after the strong and relatively big bearish candlestick which formed two weeks’ ago. This portends a likely bearish continuation. Should price action breach the immediate support created by the ascending trendline from the low of September 2016, the next target is likely to be around 105.250, which adjoins an area of a multi-year low and support zone. Otherwise, any upward move – likely to be corrective, may target the immediate support around 110.210, which adjoins the 50 Fib retracdement of the January 2016 drop.

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    On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour). One descending price wave had been completed, including a pullback which was followed by a period of consolidation three weeks’ ago. A second price wave southwards began two weeks’ ago and is still very much in play with a pullback initiated last week. The most recent price action indicated that the bears were trying to exert some influence to begin a further southward drive. Nevertheless, it is much likely that price action will retrace upward to the resistance created by the descending trendline, before any further southward move may be seen as reliable.

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    I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

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