EURUSD Top Down Analysis

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

A down trend has persisted on the weekly time frame since January 2016. The trend witnessed a retracement in October 2016 which peaked at the 86.8 Fib level in December 2016. Since then price action has been on a southward drive but with strong bullish resistance. Overall, price action is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) on the weekly time frame. However, the nearest support is provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 2016. Last week a ‘spinning top’ like candlestick was formed after the strong and relatively big bearish candlestick which formed two weeks’ ago. This portends a likely bearish continuation. Should price action breach the immediate support created by the ascending trendline from the low of September 2016, the next target is likely to be around 105.250, which adjoins an area of a multi-year low and support zone. Otherwise, any upward move – likely to be corrective, may target the immediate support around 110.210, which adjoins the 50 Fib retracdement of the January 2016 drop.


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour). One descending price wave had been completed, including a pullback which was followed by a period of consolidation three weeks’ ago. A second price wave southwards began two weeks’ ago and is still very much in play with a pullback initiated last week. The most recent price action indicated that the bears were trying to exert some influence to begin a further southward drive. Nevertheless, it is much likely that price action will retrace upward to the resistance created by the descending trendline, before any further southward move may be seen as reliable.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Thinking of winning your trading war? Enjoy this video.

Pick your battles! A good point.

If you are tracking NZDUSD, be aware that the pair is operating within a range of about 160 pips. A scalper’s delight? But as a swing trader, I will wait until price action has passed no-man’s land before looking for any trading opportunity. See attached chart; the range is mapped with bold saddlebrown horizontal lines.

Trade safe and prosper.


Picking your battles very well is central to long-term and consistent success in this business. You pick trading battles that you are well equipped to win. For example: Deciding and choosing which assets to trade, when and how will be part of picking your battles. Do you have a set of clear and specific criteria as well as a system for selecting which pairs to trade at which time and the market conditions that could provide you optimal success? Have you honed your trading strategies and understood how best to gain a profitable edge in the market? How well do you use ‘idle time’ to track the market and sharpen your arsenal?

[B]Just Sharing
[/B]
I have always thought Forex trading was difficult until very much recently. Forex trading is very easy; what is difficult is succeeding in Forex trading. And here’s why:

It takes a load of hard work and mental effort to plan and prepare for consistent profitability; and much more mental and emotional effort to wait for the right time, price and location. Only very few traders can do this.

Trade safe and prosper.

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the pair has been operating in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame since mid-2016. In January and Febrary 2017, price action moved to the lower part of the channel. It surged upwards in the latter part of February 2017 and flagged downwards to the lower part again in March and early part of April. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bullish candlestick moved the price upwards within the channel. This was followed by another bullish candlestick last week which moved the price towards the resistance line of the channel but never reached it. Apparently the upward price action was held by the weekly resistance zone around 1.36947. Should price action breach that zone, the next resistance to contend with is likely to be around 1.37939, an area last visited by prce action in January 2016. Nevertheless, the technicals on the weekly time frame support a further northward move.


The technicals and order flow context of the H4 time frame strongly favour the bulls. The two ascending tendlines (magenta colour) are well-angled for enhanced momentum to the northside and since April 2017 the candlesticks have been predominantly bullish. Three ascending price waves have been fully completed on he H4 time frame and a fourth is in play, much likely to produce a pullback before any further northward move can see further impetus, more so since recent price action has been within a resistance zone. The wicky-top candlesticks recently formed on the H4 time frame give further clue as to the struggle of sellers to wrestle control from buyers, perhaps indicating imminence of a pullback.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued the decline it started from the high of 2014. On the weekly time frame, in August 2016, the price action produced a 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of 2014 to the low of 2015 after two price waves to the downside. Thereafter, price respected a descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of 2014. Since then price ranged within a descending channel. An ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2015 has been respected as support and last week a big bearish candlestick, which engulfed seven previous candlesticks attacked this support around 0.68820 but could not breach it. It should be noted that this area is also adjoined to a horizontal support zone. Should the zone be broken southwards, the initial target is likely to be around 0.67000, the origin of a northward move in May 2016.


On the daily time frame, price action since February 2017 has been on the descent within the channel observed earlier on the weekly time frame. The technicals and order flow context show further bearish move but the spatial relationship of the MAs I use indicate some sluggishness, apparently a decrease in momentum is to be expected. There is likely to be a pullback before any further southward move; particularly as price action is in an area which has acted as a strong support zone for a couple of times in the past and has not been breached since May 2016. A breach to the downside is likely to expose 0.66732, the low of May 2016.


The technicals on the H4 time frame are in support of further bearish move. After a period of consolidation for much of the second and third weeks in April, price action has moved strongly southwards respecting a well-angled trendline (magenta colour) with the MAs well aligned for increased downward momentum. Although the price action in the most recent sessions last week, notably on Friday, showed a period of sideways operation, the descending trendline has not been strongly negated. Nevertheless, price action may make a corrective move before further southward drive.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

It is important to emphasize that the ‘weekly technical outlook’ on this thread represents a perspective based on technical analysis to identify the potential scenarios that could favour short-term swing or trend trading. Entering the market in the direction of any bias will depend on price action and market conditions satisfying specific criteria a trader may be using. No trader who wants long-term success would enter a market without using some checklists and a trade plan.

Trade safe and prosper.

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the pair has been on a decline overall, on the weekly time frame price action since February 2016 has been within a 550-pip range (bounded in saddlebrown coloured-horizontal lines). After a northward push in January 2017, price action consolidated at the upper half of the range for the next eight weeks. This region has held as both a support zone and a resistance zone in the past. The first week in April saw a relatively large bearish candlestick breaking below the upper half of the range but lacked follow-through; it was followed by three weeks of sideways move. Last week, a bearish candlestick breached the sideways mode; a strong break below this may lead to a role flip of the zone, turning it into a resistance zone for further bearish move. Such a move may initially target 0.72920, the immediate weekly support and then expose 0.71707, the support of the range.


On the H4 time frame, the most recent price action saw the buyers pushing price upward. However, any upward push is likely to be corrective; much likely to target the immediate resistance zone which adjoins the monthly pivot and the 50/61.2 Fib zone from the high of April 2017 and the low of last week (magenta coloured horizontal lines). Overall, however, the order flow context shows a preeminence of sellers and the technicals on the H4 time frame are in support of further bearish move.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since June 2015 the pair has been in a descending mode. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in a descending channel (purple coloured lines) since June 2015. In the third week of April 2017, price broke the resistance line of the descending channel to the upside. Last week’s candlestick was relatively bullish and took the price towards the immediate resistance zone around 1.49724. Price action has pulled away from an outer ascending trendline from the low of April 2012 and is respecting an inner ascending trendline (orangered colour), indicating an increase in momentum.


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) but the momentum seems to be weakening with the most recent candlesticks bearish in disposition. Given the fact that this occurred near a weekly resistance zone, there may be a retracement to the downside before any further bullish push. This pullback may be to the region of the previous swing high, which adjoins an S/R area on the H4 time frame and the 32.8 Fib zone from the low of April 2017 to the most recent high; mapped in saddlebrown coloured horizontal lines.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

EURAUD Technical Update

Price action since Monday has been on a descent and nearing a most likely reaction (support) zone - identified on Sunday (bound in Saddlebrown coloured horizontal lines) - before any further possible upward move.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

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Trade safe and prosper.

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued on the decline but the momentum decreased last week. On the weekly time frame, a spinning-top like bearish candlestick was formed, indicating a lack of follow-through of the bearish move initiated three weeks ago. It may take this week’s price action for market to give clear direction as the buyers are still very much in the fray. The technicals on the weekly time frame indicate a slow down in momentum and a period of sideways operation may set in before momentum picks up.


On the daily time frame, the buyers took control of price action in the middle of last week and the technicals on the daily time frame indicate that a further push upwards is likely to be in the offing. For example, the MAs I prefer to use are no longer aligned for bearish momentum and the RSI sloped slightly to the upside. Thus, even though the main market direction is southwards, we may expect either a period of consolidation or a retracement first before the southward move resumes, particularly as current price action is near a weekly resistance zone land marked by 0.72920, an area last visited in early January. A much likely target of any retracement of price action northwards is the immediate minor resistance zone around 0.74539 and 0.74800, which adjoins the 50/61.2 Fib zone of the most recent swing low.


Alternative technical biases
Main direction: southwards, particularly should price action break below 0.72920
Short-term disposition: consolidation around price location or northward retracement to around 0.74539 and 0.74800.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

As noted on this thread three weeks ago (on Sunday April 30, 2017), price action on the pair has been operating in an ascending channel on the weekly time frame since mid-2016. In January and February 2017, price action moved to the lower part of the channel. It surged upwards in the latter part of February 2017 and flagged downwards to the lower part again in March and early part of April. Since the beginning of this month, price action has disposed northwards. On the weekly time frame, the gravestone doji candlestick formed two weeks ago gave way to a northward directional candlestick last week although sellers’ pressure limited its momentum. Presently, price action is operating near a resistance zone which was last visited in February 2016. Should price action breach the zone, it has to contend with the resistance line of the channel very close by. We may expect some sideways operation in this area before the market makes a decision to either reject the channel southwards or breach it to the upside. At any rate, the momentum for an upward movement appears suspect at the moment.


On the daily time frame, price action has breached the resistance of the channel and formed wicky candlesticks at the immediate resistance zone noted on the weekly time frame. The formation of wicky candlesticks indicate a slow down in upward momentum. Although the technicals on the daily time frame favor a northward disposition, a barrier is the minor resistance zone which is less than 55 pips away around 1.38307. On the flip side, should price retrace southwards into the channel, a likely support can be found around 1.35838, which adjoins the 38.2 Fib level of the most recent swing high from the low of April 13.


Alternative technical biases
Main direction: northwards, particularly should price action break above 1.38307
Short-term disposition: southwards, likely retracement from within the zone of current price location to around 1.35838

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

What can you learn from this video to trap the market?

Trade safe and prosper

KP

[B]AUDUSD Technical Update[/B]

The AUDUSD is pushing upwards towards an interesting S/R area, land marked by 0.7446 and 0.7505. A rejection of the zone southwards is likely to produce a turnaround for south bound trading; otherwise an upward break of the zone with H4 candlestick close above 0.7505 is likely to produce further interest among buyers.

[B]I may be wrong.[/B]

Trade safe and prosper.

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a period of ambivalence in March, the pair has maintained a northward disposition since April. On the monthly time frame, price action has moved upward beyond the area of consolidation created between December 2016 and April 2017. A possible target of such upward move is the immediate resistance around the 1.14580 area.


On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (navy coloured lines) for quite a while. In April, price action moved from the support line and followed through with an increase in momentum towards the resistance, energized by the factor of the French presidential elections. After a period of consolidation in the latter part of April, price action broke the resistance line of the channel with an increased momentum. An ascending trendline (chocolate coloured line) has emerged but yet to be validated as the price action took the price further above it. There is likely to be a retest of the channel and/or a validation of the trendline before confidence in a bullish continuation can be had; particularly so as recent price action has just pierced through a horizontal resistance zone around 1.11160. Should a follow-through of the bullish move happen this week, a likely target will be the region of 1.14580 noted earlier on the monthly time frame. This area has not been visited in 2017 and may be attractive to big players on long trades.


On the H4 time frame, buyers pushed price upward for the most part of last week and price broke above the channel resistance last week Tuesday. However, shortly after, the momentum slowed and on Thursday sellers tangled for a retracement before a further upward push. In the last two sessions on Friday, the upward momentum slowed down. Should sellers exert further pressure, price may retest the channel at an area that adjoins the 50/32.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the low of May 12, bounded by saddlebrown horizontal lines in the attached H4 chart. Otherwise, an upward continuation is likely to target the 1.14580 area.


Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly if price breaks above the 1.14580 area; southward, should price bounce back from the 1.14580 area.

Short-term: consolidation around current price location or retracement to around 1.11160 (or the 32.8 Fib zone).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been disposed northward for a while but momentum has waned. On the weekly time frame, last week the pair moved from an area of consolidation where price action operated in the previous two weeks. Buyers took control of price action and pushed the pair into the immediate resistance zone where buyers’ further attempt to push price beyond the zone was resisted by sellers.


On the daily time frame, price action rejected an outer ascending trendline (in chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (in navy colour). However, the order flow context, with an increae in the relative size of bearish candles, indicate that the buyers are not fully in control. The pullback of price action following the French presidential elections showed a strong bearish influence, and since then the bullish candles have not been particularly dominant in size. There may be a period of consolodiation in the offing, perhaps before another retracement; particularly as price action has reached a zone that has served as a support zone on a number of times in the past and last visited in June 2016. Will the zone experience a role flip, becoming resistance on this visit? If a retracement takes place and price bounces off the ascending trendline (in navy colour), the upward move may be a trigger for further bullish push perhaps with the next resistance zone around the 1.65068 area as target. However, should price action break below the trendline, this may be a beginning of a southward turnaround, and with an initial target being the next support zone around the 1.59197 area. This may expose the monthly pivot around 1.56272.


Recent price action on the H4 time frame shows that buyers and sellers are in battle for control. The momentum for a northward move is waning, indicated by the weak slopes of the MAs I use and the fact that the most recent sessions saw the bears in control. Should this lead to a topping formation, we may expect price action to retest the ascending trendline (in navy colour) around the 1.59470 area, which adjoins the immediate support zone.


Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly should price action bounce off the H4 trendline (in navy colour) upwards or break above the 1.63047 area; southward, should price action break below the trendline around 1.59470.

Short-term: consolidation around current price location or retracement towards 1.59470.


I may be wrong.
Trade safe and prosper.

[B]Just my 2 cents[/B]

Preserve your capital always and trade patiently; don’t rush into trades, don’t rush your entry - let the market come to your levels.