True…
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I wonder what George Soros thinks will happen now, Monday 20th June:
It’s logical for there to be a correction after such a massive drop, but on the other hand at the moment the pair is hugely affected by politics and news, so there is no guarantee it won’t start dropping again soon.
That is right, although it is still ranging right now and unlike typical announcement trading, I believe the direction on the news in this case is more predictable on the fundamental implications for the UK economy.
Question. What caused the drop - which market participant contributed most to the drop - were they real world factors or speculators.
Greetings. The spike charts for NFP have been quite good the last 12 months. I was wondering if you think there could be especially more activity in EURUSD and GBPUSD given Brexit.
Cable may stay consolidated above the 1.3200 level, new information has to come in to make it move.
Some dropping today below, the main low. Trying to figure out who the market participants responsible for the this collapse are. It doesn’t make sense for real businesses with demand for foreign currency to suddenly exchange immediately post brexit in the early hours of the morning - or are the banks executing those deals for their clients.
It does make sense for asset managers who may have restrictions on the investment grade of the products they are allowed to buy to check out of sterling denominated assets and or harbour elsewhere. If they are the movers here, then especially given the downgrade of the UK, it will take a very long time for that money to come back.
The GBPUSD stalls after the bounce on the 1.2800 level, but the bearish trend is still in place. The 1.3200 level may still act as resistance.
We’ll have to wait and see how the US Change in Non-farm Payrolls announcement will affect it later today, hopefully it will cause more than a whipsaw.
The GBPUSD may settle around the 1.3200 zone, but it may also drop back down. For now the bullish momentum is still in place.
So it might stay about the same, might go down, and might go up? I think I need an fx strategist, to decipher that view … :15:
I hear echoes of the EurUsd thread on here, Dr. Lexy… It is like reading a British weather forecast: “It may rain, with sunny spells, calm in the morning with possible gusty winds later in the day and snow over the hills”… Haha
And - as Jeremy Paxman said on [I]Newsnight[/I], when the Met Office was on strike - “There’ll probably be even more weather tomorrow”. :eek:
GBP/USD couldn’t break above the resistance at 1.3480, formed a double top there and then a hanging man candlestick below that level on the four-hour time-frame and naturally started falling. Next target is likely 1.3280.
If the GBPUSD goes back up towards the 1.3532 level, it may form an inverted head and soulders pattern on the daily chart.
The pair is forming a flag on the one-hour time-frame, there will likely be a new move to the downside again with target 1.3130.
The GBPUSD breaks below the 1.3200 level, it may go to the 1.2800, which could act as support.
The GBPUSD may go back above the 1.3200 level, but there is a risk that the pair may stay consolidated around that level.
The Pound has rebound strongly today, the pair remain its negative tone, but short-term might continue to gain further from strong jobs report data.
Is there more to this theory? Fundamentals? Technical factors? Volume???