Greetings. Good news from the Brexit High Court ruling today; the UK Government cannot trigger Article 50 without the involvement of parliament.
I am looking at how GBP and therefore pairs like Cable will react to a vote on its trigger. A yes vote my guess would lead to a plummet. Do you think as big as the referendum itself? Cable has risen circa 250 pips today on the news of the ruling.
I would expect an Article 50 trigger to move Cable short at least 500 pips.
What about if parliament reject whatever Free or Preferential Trade Agreement the Government comes up with, especially if it is not comprehensive; after all, most think tank studies conclude that exiting the single market will markedly reduce goods and services trade outflow from the UK in the long run.
Goods some 20%
Services some 24%
I’m not sure there are sufficient bilateral extra EU trade agreements in the pipeline to counter the decline in EU trade; your thoughts.
What’s the trade for Article 50 trigger. March 2017 or not. Most importantly what’s the SL on a long or short.
Maybe Straddle trade that event.