USD/TRY: an incredible pair

C’mon lexy, you’re a girl, you can say it, size does matter. I’ve learnt to enter small, get on the winning side of a trade and then scale in specializing on the EU. Probably not the best way but it works for me. I was able to duplicate this methodology on the $150K demo but not the $50K. Drawdown and position size failed me.

I think this was my greatest failing. I reckon with a bit of practice I could happily transfer across to futures but it would mean abandoning forex cfd’s in my case - ie I’m time poor. Best I do what I do best. Learnt that lesson in the past.

Thats $165US. In AU thats $220. Thats my add a bit each month. My account grows more because I add a bit that what I earn from profit. Probably be that way for a few years ahead. But then for us armchair speculators it’s the only way to live the dream one day :slight_smile:

Yes, indeed … and a good technique, too, of course. But not one that’s amenable to the constraints of a “$50k Combine”, I do see. Yes, this is apparently an instance where size matters.

Hey you two, no funny business on my thread haha

My results so far:


Hello peeps!

The stats so far:

Total net proft: -161.98 (£)
Gross profit: 368.55 (£)
Gross loss: -530.53 (£)
Profit factor: 0.69

Total trades: 57
Winning trades: 19
Losing trades: 38
Percent profitable: 33%

Largest winning trade: 41.53 (£)
Largest losing trade: -34.54 (£)
Average winning trade: 19.4 (£)
Average losing trade: -13.96 (£)

Maximum consecutive wins: 3
Maximum consecutive losses: 6
Average consecutive wins: 1
Average consecutive losses: 0

Updated strategy (no change in strategy aims, just a refinement of one or two points previously left undefined):

TradingStrategy(USDTRY)FebtoAug2017.pdf (53.5 KB)

Hello peeps!

I am just posting my amended strategy, prompted by a realisation that my 3:1 R/R ratio

with the given entry parameters is too ambitious. I am three months into a six-month testing

period but the evidence is overwhelming, as written in the document in red font, against continuing

with the initial R/R ratio.

The gains should have outstripped the losses, which they do sometimes but there are statistically

few trades that hit the full target, therefore the majority of the time they missed and reversed,

and the stops, however small, ended up compiling a net loss for the account overall.

I now have three months to implement the small modifications and gather data to see if this

improves the profitability ratio.

Thank you

and HAPPY TRADING!

TradingStrategy(USDTRY)FebtoAug2017.pdf (69.6 KB)

Hello Peeps,

further to recent experiences I added a few more sub-rules to my amended strategy,

as attached.

I will publish my results again once I see a shift (either a continuation in the same

direction or a reversal).

Thank you for ‘watching’!

Happy Trading

TradingStrategy(USDTRY)FebtoAug2017.pdf (71.8 KB)

Hello peeps,

the changes I made have helped with limiting losses thus far,

and I have made further changes to the system as I have learnt

more about trading this pair.

At the moment the profit factor is 0.75% so there is work ahead -

nothing is for certain until that profit factor improves to at least 1.00.

TradingStrategy(USDTRY)FebtoAug2017.pdf (73.1 KB)

Sounds good! :slight_smile: Keep going…

Thank you, Manxx! In the manual, part-time world of mine it would be difficult to trade more than one thing, so instead of diversification I have to go for specialisation… Anyway, the proof is in the P/L :slight_smile:

Exactly! I think there is a lot of value in concentrating on one product and learning it inside out. Maybe once one is conquered it is fine to expand onto other things. Isnt that the case with musical instruments? That there is always one main one that is always no.1- even when one can play many?

Precisely!

Well, well… That account has been through a lot more changes since my last post, one whole year ago!

I have just managed to get all the figures together neatly into a chart showing the balance curve since starting this demo account with FXCM in February 2017:

Since the last post on this thread I noticed that the account was moving too slowly, so I started experimenting with
various trades… Eventually I traded too big and brought the account down from a high of around 58k to about 10.7k; then, I started reconstructing the losses and am now around 32k.

What has worked in rebuilding the account?

  1. longer trades encompassing 1000s of pips;
  2. incorporating carry trade elements to accrue substantial amounts of rollover over time;
  3. taking maximum one or two trades at a time;
  4. managing drawdown periods actively.

The journey continues.
@ropunzel @_bob @MrDE @eddieb @anon46773462 @peterma @SimonTemplar @PipNRoll @Pipstradamus @emeraldorc

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@FundamentallyFlawed @Penelopip @BrentJB @Ananais @Jason_Rogers @cndlstckchic @WinPsych @baz1982 @lexys

See above post :slight_smile:

That was the same issue I had on the old Balls of Steel thread. Pure and simple greed, too easy to get carried away when on a winning run.
Good recovery PMH, and the carry trade has been a nice earner

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Thanks Eddie…You are so right… Your trading too has much improved since those days, I imagine!

Thanks for the tag! Lots of lessons to be learned from this! We should do a Top 10 Things You’ve Learned / Top 10 Mistakes or maybe like a Q&A for this particular account!

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Hello Ananais… You already interviewed me once but I would love to do it again as a Q&A.

How do you suggest we do it?

That would be awesome! We’re about to relaunch our mini Q&A sessions here in a few days - would love to add you to the pipeline! Will send you a PM by Monday (out this weekend). :wink:

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