Conclusive Proof

Greetings

For all the people currently developing and testing their trading system(s) (including me).

What level of testing, back and forward and under what conditions (e.g. MT4 or not 99% or not etc…), over how many pairs and years and with what parameters (Mean PnL, ST Dev, Alpha, relative Drawdown, Beta, Sharp Ratio or whatever else you can think of).

When would you have a kitkat and be happy in the knowledge that you’ve figured something out.

My god, honestly, you’re miles off the mark. Stop looking at fancy sounding words, and look at the black and white results of your trading approach. These results, say it all

Thanks for the post, but I would have to inform you that those are not fancy sounding words but standard industry tools used the assess the relative performance of either a single system or portfolio of systems; the aim would be to identify the best approach considering risk adjusted returns.

Tell me more about how you evaluated your system; what does black and white results mean

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The black and white results, as you ‘so kindly informed me’ are those of a profitability ratio against risk, and also maximum drawdown. All the other ‘fancy sounding words’ you managed to quote are simply derivatives within the already stated.

Essentially, get the basic foundations correct and trying to find the Alpha or Beta (which are totally popostrious, by the way) don’t even matter.

Profitability ratio versus risk? not sure what that is.

Why is alpha and beta preposterous, oh, is that what you do, jump on posts with the presumption that you are clued up on the market versus the non entity you know nothing about incidentally. That’s kinda the problem with this and other forums, a lot of egomaniacal hot air and very few useful data bits.

Moving on to my original post, at what point (level of detail) would you be confident in your system, your ‘profitability ratio versus risk’ system. Can you elaborate on what that means, over what time period do you test, on how many pairs. Do you have confidence in MT4 testing or do you use other tools. How do you benchmark performance, do you use multiple strategies to distribute risk, if so how do you determine the optimal set at any given time.

As in the original post, at what point are you 100% confident in the viability of your system.

Absolutely … the are the two main parameters by which I’ve assessed everything I’ve ever done, investigated or analysed. In my opinion, “analysis of statistical confidence” has in common with “trading in general” the fact that it really [I]isn’t[/I] about doing very complicated things: it’s just about doing simple things [I]very well and very consistently[/I]. Anything else is probably mostly a distraction.

The Gospel according to Lexy. Verse 1 Chapter 5 paragraph 7 says: " So gripped was she with the Holy Spirit, that as she wanteth to speculate on Caesar’s coin, from the multiple languages and strategies that came forth from the wilderness of savage and wicked men, she spoke forth one, the one simple universal strategy of truth from whence all came." :13:

No but seriously. Maximum drawdown? If you’re gonna go down that root then relative drawdown would be a more useful tool surely; max is incidental to the starting point.

Anyway please let me know, trying to get a feel for the rigour.

Why would one want to go down the route of relative drawdown when you have access to absolute, proven drawdown?

By using relative drawdown you are making an assumption - and as we know, assumptions don’t just make an ‘ass of you, but an ass of everyone else’ :wink:

As for this comment, all be it quite openly disrespectful when you know nothing about me or my own personal trading activities, it says quite a lot more about you as an individual.

So, in this instance, apologies if you took what I said in the wrong context - however I have no control on other peoples ignorance to reading in-between the lines.

I must also agree with the above quoted text, I do not know much about you either - as stated in your own words, shown below

>>>

Then again, when a ‘non entity’ starts to mention the reliability of MT4, it starts to beg the question on just how experienced they really are outside of the ‘typical’ retail crowed? (again, I’ve quoted below for your convenience)

>>>

“[U]Relative[/U] drawdown” is the counterpart to “[U]absolute[/U] drawdown”, not the counterpart to “[U]maximum[/U] drawdown.”

“Relative drawdown” is what I look at, myself, and specifically the “[U]maximum[/U] relative drawdown” (which is more important to me than the “average relative drawdown”).

I don’t know what it means (I don’t really “do religion”) but it sounds good. :cool:

Sounds like a lot of google searching there. Lol. You do like to try and blind one with science; but from my experience have no real fundamental grasp of the concepts involved or their implications.

Sounds great.

That, and Profit Factor (which I’ve always found a useful [I]comparative[/I] metric, comparing different options.) And I always include MAE in “drawdowns” (though I have tight enough stop-losses for it hopefully never to be relevant.)

interesting. Let’s have a peek at your track record

Actually I have no more to say to you, [I]especially[/I] since you edit your posts [U]after[/U] I’ve replied to them.

Sorry, I’ve really tried pretty hard to help you, in [I]many[/I] threads (as well as responding promptly and courteously to your private messages when you’ve asked me for advice that way), but the bottom line is that I just can’t help you. :8:

I wish you well.

O.olll gosh…

Ouch babe. Why so tetchy…I just asked for some track record…:13:

[I]"A prince, therefore, ought always to take counsel, but only when he wishes and not when others wish; he ought rather to discourage every one from offering advice unless he asks it; but, however, he ought to be a constant inquirer, and afterwards a patient listener concerning the things of which he inquired; also, on learning that nay one, on any consideration, has not told him the truth, he should let his anger be felt.

And if there are some who think that a prince who conveys an impression of his wisdom is not so through his own ability, but through the good advisers that he has around him, beyond doubt they are deceived, because this is an axiom which never fails: that a prince who is not wise himself will never take good advice, unless by chance he has yielded his affairs entirely to one person who happens to be a very prudent man. In this case indeed he may be well governed, but it would not be for long, because such a governor would in a short time take away his state from him."[/I]

niccolo machiavelli The Prince

I’m just a little concerned because the overwhelming majority of users here are still in development of their craft, and the blind leading the blind will get you nowhere fast. It would be good for posters to back up their positions with some objective evidence.

Ropunzel you have no bloody idea about Lexy and you should.bloody well shut up with all this ‘show me, show me’ demands: you have no right to demand any personal.information from anyone, no matter who you are

If the prime minister of Denmark came on here, let’s say, and demanded someone’s track record, she would probably be told to go away… So it does not matter how important or knowledgeable you are: demanding to see people’s private track record is just a nonsense.

That’s nice. Quite clique around here I see.

Well if a member of the community presents themselves a certain way (as a de facto expert in the field) then I think it would be for the benefit of us all to verify their credentials. How are we (novices) to know the difference between good and bad advice (cite Machiavelli).

I don’t c what the issue is really, what does the ruler of Denmark have to do with anything.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating, so show me the money.

So if Leda Braga or Jennifer Fan came on here to give advice would you also ask THEM for audited track record before accepting that they are the successful traders and financial investment professionals that they are famous for?!?!?!?!?

Well I think the fact that they have demonstrable track record which created their fame may swing it. But I would still want to do some diligence if they were pitching me a specific product and or approach.

Bernie Maddof