60 years later, the beginning of the new EU - Page 2
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  1. #11
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    70 years later


    I wish to speak about the tragedy of Europe, this noble continent, the home of all the great parent races of the Western world, the foundation of Christian faith and ethics, the origin of most of the culture, arts, philosophy and science both of ancient and modern times. If Europe were once united in the sharing of its common inheritance there would be no limit to the happiness, prosperity and glory which its 300 million or 400 million people would enjoy. Yet it is from Europe that has sprung that series of frightful nationalistic quarrels, originated by the Teutonic nations in their rise to power, which we have seen in this 20th century and in our own lifetime wreck the peace and mar the prospects of all mankind.

    What is this plight to which Europe has been reduced? Some of the smaller states have indeed made a good recovery, but over wide areas are a vast, quivering mass of tormented, hungry, careworn and bewildered human beings, who wait in the ruins of their cities and homes and scan the dark horizons for the approach of some new form of tyranny or terror. Among the victors there is a Babel of voices, among the vanquished the sullen silence of despair. That is all that Europeans, grouped in so many ancient states and nations, and that is all that the Germanic races have got by tearing each other to pieces and spreading havoc far and wide. Indeed, but for the fact that the great republic across the Atlantic realised that the ruin or enslavement of Europe would involve her own fate as well, and stretched out hands of succour and guidance, the Dark Ages would have returned in all their cruelty and squalor. They may still return.

    Yet all the while there is a remedy which, if it were generally and spontaneously adopted by the great majority of people in many lands, would as by a miracle transform the whole scene and would in a few years make all Europe, or the greater part of it, as free and happy as Switzerland is today. What is this sovereign remedy? It is to recreate the European fabric, or as much of it as we can, and to provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, safety and freedom. We must build a kind of United States of Europe. In this way only will hundreds of millions of toilers be able to regain the simple joys and hopes which make life worth living. The process is simple. All that is needed is the resolve of hundreds of millions of men and women to do right instead of wrong and to gain as their reward blessing instead of cursing.

    Much work has been done upon this task by the exertions of the Pan-European Union, which owes so much to the famous French patriot and statesman Aristide Briand. There is also that immense body which was brought into being amidst high hopes after the First World War - the League of Nations. The League did not fail because of its principles or conceptions. It failed because those principles were deserted by those states which brought it into being, because the governments of those states feared to face the facts and act while time remained. This disaster must not be repeated. There is, therefore, much knowledge and material with which to build and also bitter, dearly bought experience to spur.

    There is no reason why a regional organisation of Europe should in any way conflict with the world organisation of the United Nations. On the contrary, I believe that the larger synthesis can only survive if it is founded upon broad natural groupings. There is already a natural grouping in the Western Hemisphere. We British have our own Commonwealth of Nations. These do not weaken, on the contrary they strengthen, the world organisation. They are in fact its main support. And why should there not be a European group which could give a sense of enlarged patriotism and common citizenship to the distracted peoples of this mighty continent? And why should it not take its rightful place with other great groupings and help to shape the honourable destiny of man? In order that this may be accomplished there must be an act of faith in which the millions of families speaking many languages must consciously take part.

    We all know that the two World Wars through which we have passed arose out of the vain passion of Germany to play a dominating part in the world. In this last struggle crimes and massacres have been committed for which there is no parallel since the Mongol invasion of the 13th century, no equal at any time in human history. The guilty must be punished. Germany must be deprived of the power to rearm and make another aggressive war. But when all this has been done, as it will be done, as it is being done, there must be an end to retribution. There must be what Mr Gladstone many years ago called a "blessed act of oblivion". We must all turn our backs upon the horrors of the past and look to the future. We cannot afford to drag forward across the years to come hatreds and revenges which have sprung from the injuries of the past. If Europe is to be saved from infinite misery, and indeed from final doom, there must be this act of faith in the European family, this act of oblivion against all crimes and follies of the past. Can the peoples of Europe rise to the heights of the soul and of the instinct and spirit of man? If they could, the wrongs and injuries which have been inflicted would have been washed away on all sides by the miseries which have been endured. Is there any need for further floods of agony? Is the only lesson of history to be that mankind is unteachable? Let there be justice, mercy and freedom. The peoples have only to will it and all will achieve their heart's desire.

    I am now going to say something that will astonish you. The first step in the re-creation of the European family must be a partnership between France and Germany. In this way only can France recover the moral and cultural leadership of Europe. There can be no revival of Europe without a spiritually great France and a spiritually great Germany. The structure of the United States of Europe will be such as to make the material strength of a single State less important. Small nations will count as much as large ones and gain their honour by a contribution to the common cause. The ancient States and principalities of Germany, freely joined for mutual convenience in a federal system, might take their individual places among the United States of Europe.

    But I must give you warning, time may be short. At present there is a breathing space. The cannons have ceased firing. The fighting has stopped. But the dangers have not stopped. If we are to form a United States of Europe, or whatever name it may take, we must begin now. In these present days we dwell strangely and precariously under the shield, and I even say protection, of the atomic bomb. The atomic bomb is still only in the hands of a nation which, we know, will never use it except in the cause of right and freedom, but it may well be that in a few years this awful agency of destruction will be widespread and that the catastrophe following from its use by several warring nations will not only bring to an end all that we call civilisation but may possibly disintegrate the globe itself.

    I now sum up the propositions which are before you. Our constant aim must be to build and fortify the United Nations Organisation. Under and within that world concept we must re-create the European family in a regional structure called, it may be, the United States of Europe, and the first practical step will be to form a Council of Europe. If at first all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join a union we must nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and who can. The salvation of the common people of every race and every land from war and servitude must be established on solid foundations, and must be created by the readiness of all men and women to die rather than to submit to tyranny. In this urgent work France and Germany must take the lead together. Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America - and, I trust, Soviet Russia, for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live. Therefore I say to you "Let Europe arise!"
    Winston Churchill [UK PM, Former EU-Member state]
    Zurich - September 19, 1946
    Last edited by TURBONero; 03-28-2017 at 01:12 AM.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
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    2,560
    An excellent quote Turbo - Churchill was a visionary, a planner, he made the outcome happen with his vision, his determination and of course his diplomacy. I wonder how he would judge today's conservatives.

    Over to the right side of the Euro chart, day one of year 61 the Euro buyers were in charge.

    Aside from the German vote there was one piece of important news - the ifo German numbers. This will lend even more credence to hawks, there will be more cage rattling on QE, especially from the BB and J Weidmann, he has been making 'gentle' sounds since last Dec.

    But all that is down the line, over to USD for the next few weeks, the 27 will have their minds focused elsewhere in the immediate future.

  3. #13
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    Nov 2011
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    2,560
    Right on cue, usdx rose from 99.10 to 99.70 in the US session today - that nicely wipes the smile off the Eur/Usd buyers who didn't check out yesterday evening. The Monday gap now firmly closed.

    Most USD pairs showing gains.

    Red letter day tomorrow for the 27.

    Eur/Gbp traders will be interested in the trigger document, seems it's not just a 'we herewith give notice' type of letter.

    Right side of the chart tomorrow very cloudy, eurx closing much where it opened today - bullish sign in the face of the USD buying but end of month on Eur/Gbp can obscure the short term.

    Time to chill out for a few days.

  4. #14
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    Nov 2011
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    Quick word on the letter, softer in tone than expected, transition period has been renamed to implementation periods (well done Mark Carney), no threats of no deal better than bad deal.

    There has likely been advice (maybe the FO) that the 27 weakness lies in their number, that they each have different concerns, perhaps first up is the East/West split.

    For Eastern members of the 27 Russia is a major concern.

    Coincidentally the UK recently announced 150 troops being sent to Poland, then the word 'Security' gets mentioned 11 times:

    “In security terms, a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.”

    Then adds:

    “Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Weakening our cooperation for the prosperity and protection of our citizens would be a costly mistake.”

    I mentioned earlier an unusual sense of cooperation within the 27, Tusk touched on this yesterday, perhaps the coupling of security and trade deal may not be the best approach.

    Friday sees bal of payments for UK, the greater risk is for a miss ( downside for GBP), likewise the EU reply to the letter next week may be harsher because of the security aspect, also risking GBP downside.

  5. #15
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  6. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
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    513
    Quote Originally Posted by lexys View Post
    Hmm, well, there's some "left-wing populism" about as well, maybe ... Greece? Spain??

    Some/many of the people who would otherwise have voted for Wilders as a "protest vote" were mindful of the Trump result and thought to themselves "Better not, just in case he wins?" (Just my interpretation ...).
    I think that Trump's election and all the subsequent drama that ensued in the States has made some people in Europe, at least, of voting for populists. Regardless of political opinions, everyone likes one thing, and that's stability.

  7. #17
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    Nov 2011
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kate_Hoey

    The Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland campaigned for Brexit, seems there was some help from some quarters towards the costs.

    DUP confirms £435,000 Brexit donation - BBC News

    There was a request that the spending info remain 'quiet' for a little while.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04yhsg9

    Kate is Labour, Heseltine is Conservative - I know, us old guys can get mixed up a little.

    Mlawson has a point, my wife speaking recently to a lovely lady in a little French village, their main topic of conversation was Trump and Brexit - seems they dislike both.

    Maybe not really the basis of a scientific opinion poll, but I wonder

    Speaking of the oldies, this is the bit that annoys me, our future is quite limited, yet who is calling the shots?

  8. #18
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    Nov 2011
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    Back to the 27, the response draft was a little swifter than many expected.

    The expectation from EU27 is:

    "If Britain remains a part of the EU single market for a time after Brexit, it would also have to respect all "four freedoms"."

    My guess is those four as per the first post - long way to go.

  9. #19
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    Nov 2011
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    Here is the text of the response.

    Note the unity of the 27 is important, also the 'phased' approach shows a degree of flexibility.

    https://static.rasset.ie/documents/n...guidelines.pdf

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
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    4,747
    Peter,

    I wanted to commend you for starting and maintaining this thread. Your posts have been thoughtful and balanced.

    I know that you are personally and financially invested in the outcome of the UK's separation from the EU -- but that outcome will affect all of us, everyone in the world, to one degree or another.

    The next two years promise to be somewhat unsettled in the best scenario, and chaotic in the worst scenario. An old Chinese curse regarding interesting times comes to mind.

    Please continue to update this thread as developments unfold.

    .

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