60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

Trading Discussion
12

An excellent quote Turbo - Churchill was a visionary, a planner, he made the outcome happen with his vision, his determination and of course his diplomacy. I wonder how he would judge today’s conservatives.

Over to the right side of the Euro chart, day one of year 61 the Euro buyers were in charge.

Aside from the German vote there was one piece of important news - the ifo German numbers. This will lend even more credence to hawks, there will be more cage rattling on QE, especially from the BB and J Weidmann, he has been making ‘gentle’ sounds since last Dec.

But all that is down the line, over to USD for the next few weeks, the 27 will have their minds focused elsewhere in the immediate future.

13

Right on cue, usdx rose from 99.10 to 99.70 in the US session today - that nicely wipes the smile off the Eur/Usd buyers who didn’t check out yesterday evening. The Monday gap now firmly closed.

Most USD pairs showing gains.

Red letter day tomorrow for the 27.

Eur/Gbp traders will be interested in the trigger document, seems it’s not just a ‘we herewith give notice’ type of letter.

Right side of the chart tomorrow very cloudy, eurx closing much where it opened today - bullish sign in the face of the USD buying but end of month on Eur/Gbp can obscure the short term.

Time to chill out for a few days.

14

Quick word on the letter, softer in tone than expected, transition period has been renamed to implementation periods (well done Mark Carney), no threats of no deal better than bad deal.

There has likely been advice (maybe the FO) that the 27 weakness lies in their number, that they each have different concerns, perhaps first up is the East/West split.

For Eastern members of the 27 Russia is a major concern.

Coincidentally the UK recently announced 150 troops being sent to Poland, then the word ‘Security’ gets mentioned 11 times:

[I]“In security terms, a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.”
[/I]
Then adds:

[I]“Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Weakening our cooperation for the prosperity and protection of our citizens would be a costly mistake.”[/I]

I mentioned earlier an unusual sense of cooperation within the 27, Tusk touched on this yesterday, perhaps the coupling of security and trade deal may not be the best approach.

Friday sees bal of payments for UK, the greater risk is for a miss ( downside for GBP), likewise the EU reply to the letter next week may be harsher because of the security aspect, also risking GBP downside.

15

https://www.channel4.com/news/topic/lord-heseltine

16

I think that Trump’s election and all the subsequent drama that ensued in the States has made some people in Europe, at least, of voting for populists. Regardless of political opinions, everyone likes one thing, and that’s stability.

17

The Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland campaigned for Brexit, seems there was some help from some quarters towards the costs.

DUP confirms £435,000 Brexit donation - BBC News

There was a request that the spending info remain ‘quiet’ for a little while.

Kate is Labour, Heseltine is Conservative - I know, us old guys can get mixed up a little.

Mlawson has a point, my wife speaking recently to a lovely lady in a little French village, their main topic of conversation was Trump and Brexit - seems they dislike both.

Maybe not really the basis of a scientific opinion poll, but I wonder :slight_smile:

Speaking of the oldies, this is the bit that annoys me, our future is quite limited, yet who is calling the shots?

18

Back to the 27, the response draft was a little swifter than many expected.

The expectation from EU27 is:

[I]“If Britain remains a part of the EU single market for a time after Brexit, it would also have to respect all “four freedoms”.”[/I]

My guess is those four as per the first post - long way to go.

19

Here is the text of the response.

Note the unity of the 27 is important, also the ‘phased’ approach shows a degree of flexibility.

20

Peter,

I wanted to commend you for starting and maintaining this thread. Your posts have been thoughtful and balanced.

I know that you are personally and financially invested in the outcome of the UK’s separation from the EU – but that outcome will affect all of us, everyone in the world, to one degree or another.

The next two years promise to be somewhat unsettled in the best scenario, and chaotic in the worst scenario. An old Chinese curse regarding interesting times comes to mind.

Please continue to update this thread as developments unfold.

.

1 Like
21

https://lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F89d601b0-148c-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c&h=ATMbmaxqy2QqU3SJ58IlDoklWYDo29ZqETuiS61iHnP0x0E7dpvkPdHoYLoVhQ-eD09WQ6TVl5tuaZfapddecKUj_QAq-Qq3kq2iU_bpfDrNNgx-Ndl-xbFiovZhXyDExvuR6w&enc=AZN3zggW9FNcwEGf6QgadVAGMi_S3lZx68lprznzMCRK_VcV0kQYOA2mY2AO4ZKM3ECYqcCSPG-FNcoMlXssgJrKgsmpHXH0FuDmPE4gzrLXDZuT6WRPnEbtTUCPnwAhl_3OxjG7hjiOYEJeQ0ia463_pEPzYI7_bP_1AWS-yzqgUtoymqTKktyxXms8Jam7vm4&s=1

22

I think whoever think Brexit ‘‘no deal’’ better than ‘‘bad deal’’, should think again.

23

That the UK will leave the EU is almost certain at this point. What I keep wondering about is whether there will be other EU members who will leave too.

24

Anything is possible, although the focus right now is on the Western Balkans and the accession of countries to the EU.

The process is long, it started back about three years ago, in the week past Angela Merkel stated that “The countries in the Western Balkans should be given a prospect of becoming a member of the EU.”

The Western Balkans | EU fact sheets | European Parliament

25

it has already shown that there are non and wint be none. the netherlands were considered most promising candidate to be the lemming followimg UK over the cliff, but last month elections have shown that this is a highly unlikely scenario- to say the least.

newest polls show that the support for the eu, by eu citizen, is spiking high reaching tge highest high since the creation of the EU.

so no, no more “xy”-xit’s. -as dissapointing as this sound to UK citizen, its facts.

id be more worried about a scott-uk-“xit” right now tbh.
or how is that called? “Disunited Kingdom”?

and the (already happening) exodus of banks from London.

26

Turbo is correct re the surveys. Since the brexit vote pro EU sentiment within EU has risen.

Since the publication of the UK letter to the EU and the perception by some that there was an implied threat on security issues I would be surprised if there is not a further increase.

Btw, the weekend words from the former UK ruling party leader are referred to as a storm in a teacup, my own suspicion is that it is a diversion to take the focus away from a silly mistake on the security issue.

This veteran sums it up:

Criticism of Lord Howard’s Gibraltar comments ‘ludicrous’ - BBC News

27

lol, who are you trying to kid?

The UK hold 4 very heavy aces up their sleeve, 3 of which they’ll keep tucked away until or if they require to be calmly & carefully placed on the table at any point of their choosing - MI5 MI6 GCHQ & Donald Trump.

And if anybody thinks for one minute those anti-eu hard liners behind the scenes who will actually be orchestrating negotiations won’t use the former 3 as a bargaining tool if push comes to shove then they’re seriously deluding themselves.

That was most definitely a very intentionally inserted veiled threat & those postulating fools in brussels can brush it away as grandstanding as much as they like, but the fact remains their intelligence security protocols are an embarrassing joke & if it wasn’t for the UK’s vastly superior capabilities knowledge & expertise, major european cities would have experienced far more catastrophic turmoil at the hands of terrorists.

May & Co are happy to allow the remoaners on both sides of the channel to flap their jaws & crow a little, because they know the aces we hold are worth their weight in gold….or blood.
The UK aren’t quite the meek, insular little island they think they are & if Juncker & his incompetent cronies want to play a little hard ball they’re more than up for that!

Don’t underestimate Trump’s disdain for the EU either, particularly their brain-freeze, clumsy & naïve open-door refugee/immigrant policy fiasco. His views on their clunky, chaotic overly beurocratic nonsense is well advertised + he’s an enthusiastic, consistently vocal supporter of UK & a huge fan of Brexit. He won’t for a minute hesitate to throw his not inconsiderable hat into the ring if he feels like it, if only to fire a warning shot across the EU’s bows.

Merkel recently got a first-hand taste of his utter dissatisfaction & contempt of the EU’s decision making in that incredibly frosty, embarrassingly awkward meeting between the two & they can ill afford to alienate or upset the US further, especially on issues concerning security, something which Teresa May & the Brexit negotiating team is more than well aware of.

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28

Fortunately, the majority of Scots have more sense than to take notice of that hairbrained wailing banshee. They’d sink without trace within a year if it wasn’t for us.

It’s so gratifying to see you moaning minnies spluttering & spitting your nonsense all over the media & internet - the same boring, negative crap that those knuckle heads in Brussels trumpet out 24/7.

Months before the actual vote all the deeply offended, sniffy remoaners were informing anyone prepared to listen the UK’s economy would suffer an immediate nosedive, interests rates would have to be raised as inflation rocketed, house values would begin noticeably diving, production would suffer, companies would resist investing until after Brexit, unemployment would rise blah blah blah zzzzzzz……

If you believed all their hot air nonsense the UK as we know it would slide into a state of irreparable destruction…LOL

The reality of course is very different indeed & it’s simply made all your ridiculous scaremongering appear quite stupid, very ignorant & put a permanent smile on our faces as we continue to watch you all flail around hopelessly trying to convince yourselves we’ve still made a catastrophic mistake. So funny.

Up to & beyond the Brexit decision, the UK are the fastest growing economy in the world, yes that means ahead of the Krauts & all the other 26 laggards, even leaving the US in our wake.

Our employment uptick data outstrips that of every EU bloc by a country mile, with unemployment currently running below 5%, translating to less than half, yes that’s [B]HALF[/B] that of the EU average.

The fall in sterling is racking up export orders, billions in foreign cash investments from high profile firms such as Google, Apple, Japanese auto manufacturers, Middle Eastern construction conglomerates are pouring in at a rate of knots, not to mention the queue of international trade deals lining up to be signed as soon as we can untangle ourselves from those incompetent imbeciles in Brussels.

Quite the downturn huh?
LOL.

If that represents a horrifying picture of leaving a sinking ship, I’ll take it every time!
Some of you whiny little europeans should get out in the fresh air a bit more & try smelling the roses……better still, nip over the channel & smell ours, they’re incredibly sweet indeed! :slight_smile:

1 Like
29

It is precisely because of attitudes like yours that Europe was created, to stop belligerant patriots wanting to kick up wars in the name of a sense of their own entitlement.

30

This post smells.of trolling all over.

That, or it confounds fact with fiction.

31

Total garbage. If you must come out with statements like this at least get your facts right.

Countries by GDP Growth 2016 - StatisticsTimes.com

IMF figures list UK as 125th by gdp growth 2016, well behind Ireland (34th), Spain (82nd), Romania (31st), who are all in the EU

Still, you’re only wrong by 124 places