Quick word on the letter, softer in tone than expected, transition period has been renamed to implementation periods (well done Mark Carney), no threats of no deal better than bad deal.
There has likely been advice (maybe the FO) that the 27 weakness lies in their number, that they each have different concerns, perhaps first up is the East/West split.
For Eastern members of the 27 Russia is a major concern.
Coincidentally the UK recently announced 150 troops being sent to Poland, then the word ‘Security’ gets mentioned 11 times:
[I]“In security terms, a failure to reach agreement would mean our cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.”
[/I]
Then adds:
[I]“Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Weakening our cooperation for the prosperity and protection of our citizens would be a costly mistake.”[/I]
I mentioned earlier an unusual sense of cooperation within the 27, Tusk touched on this yesterday, perhaps the coupling of security and trade deal may not be the best approach.
Friday sees bal of payments for UK, the greater risk is for a miss ( downside for GBP), likewise the EU reply to the letter next week may be harsher because of the security aspect, also risking GBP downside.