60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

Absolutely…

And Scottish Labour have changed leader twice in two years, so they are as weak as their English counterpart in opposition.

I agree, the Tories are doing some awful things, like the ‘rape clause’ and more cuts to social security as well as ti community care, and their obsession with first ‘free schools’ and now Grammar Schools.

Sadly it is not just the Tories who damages this country, but at least under Blair the incredible NHS investment really did cut down waiting time for operations etc. Blair came into office with a clear vision about education, and indeed the Music Manifesto, for example, really put money into music classes and instruments access for children in schools… Of course, a lot of it was fuelled by excess borrowing and when the bubble burst it was all too clear what the real situation was: too much cheap, unsecured credit handed out like sweets.

The problem is that people on the streets of Scotland really engaged with the independence referendum in 2014 but, were it to come round again, may not be so passionate about it: the apathy seems.to have returned, or perhaps the realisation that the referenda of 2014 and 2016 have been divisive and people just want leadership, not constant uncertainty.

Sadly, the SNP is hell-bent on its ‘mandate’ for independence, whereas it should rather focus on getting those living in Scotland a better or at least not worse future.

Nah, the Tories know that Scotland for them is of little consequence, from a political party perspective that is, it’s all about self preservation, which is fair enough, that’s what party politics is about.

Often being statesmanlike can be very negative for political party, there is a hint of such an approach from the current FM, (Philip Hammond) he is suggesting that taxes including VAT (sales tax) need to be increased, he is aware of the troubled waters ahead, a little sign just given yesterday with negative Retail Sales.

Hammond is well aware that the current euphoria on UK economy is being driven by consumer spending, signs that may come to an end ( beats me how tax increases will solve anything), so the suggestion from a particular Tory paper is that the Tory manifesto will tell it like it is, in the interest of the country.

Hmmm… bet that will get watered down, no votes in being a statesman.

Pipme, last time the Scots were told that should they choose independence then a horrible thing would happen, they would be outside the EU having to ask to get in, seems that a majority of them figure their future is better in, whether as an independent country remains to be seen.

[I]Bank of America Merrill Lynch FX Strategy Research believes that the UK buys more time by holding the early elections which in turn is GBP positive.[/I]

(they were reading the thread)

The quote is per EfxNews yesterday.

It looks like a Macron vs Le Pen run off in two weeks time, with Macron in front (not a final result, mere estimates only).

If the estimates are proved correct, and likely they are, then no Euro shock for Monday open. Probably no massive moves until the final round but Euro should hold, ‘steady as she goes’.

Update: - Macron still on track, for those outside of EU, he would be the youngest head of state since Napoleon, described as ‘centrist’, pro EU, former banker and FM.

Big change for La Belle France so far.

Le Grande Nation.

Grandeur de la France.

Summit of the 27 leaders in Brussels this Sat.

There’s been a hardening on the 27 side, not sure the reason(s) but either what is being said on the UK side not published or the calling of the snap election after the UK PM stating multiple times that this would not happen - maybe now a lack of trust.

Anyway, whatever the cause the lines have shifted.

Some details have been leaked, likely public after the summit.

I expect some GBP volatility on both Friday on the GDP release and on Monday on the divorce news.

I think it’s a good thing that he’s a young man. He’d bring a new, fresh perspective to France and to EU in general, hopefully for the better. If he wins, that is.

Summit of 27 to kick off today.

Short invitation letter emphasizes three starting points, or as Tusk says sorting the past before sorting the future.

The 3 aims contained within the third paragraph,i the last one is pertinent, there is a certain relief that at least one side is showing concern.

As mentioned earlier Eur/Gbp remains the vehicle for trading Brexit, I see the gap has now closed.

Well the reason for the sudden change in the 27 sentiment has just become clear.

Eur/Gbp came off the gap close, although markets thin.

The leak on last Wednesday’s meeting is gaining some traction both in UK and Europe.

Ireland is/was the UK’s closest ally within the 27, the calling of the election and it’s effect on the delicate NI talks likely have put that friendship under strain, hence the inclusion of NI in the three bullet points from the 27.

There is a sense of pessimism in what speed bump would call my ‘neck of the woods’.

May dismisses report of difficult Juncker meeting

And finally, the purpose of the meeting last Wed was to introduce Michel Barnier, the EU 27 appointed negotiator, to the main UK players including the PM.

Seems he was far from impressed. The use of slogans generally associated with elections is understandable, but usually not used behind closed doors and informal over dinner talks.

Not a great start, and def not ‘gossip’.

That was the end of last week, PA has remained significant, when looking at GBP this past week there has been a certain strength, perhaps a follow on from the election call, then buoyed on Tue by better than exp mfctr, Wed by better than exp construction and today on the services numbers.

Today alone should have been a big sell Eur/Gbp.

But since the gap close the opposite seems to apply.

Anyways, looking right the Euro is at a crossroads, next week has the potential to set the scene.

EURX making a triple top daily, helped by the mentioned gap, and of course an election.

Edit: never shy to give my opinion (or is it prediction :)) I think I would favour Eur, despite the numbers.

Interestingly (at least to me),

this chart https://invst.ly/3vvk6 shows you how every attempt by the Pound to trend since the

GFC (Great Financial Crisis) has failed, if you look at it from a multi-month sort of angle.

My biggest example that I always quote is the 2000+ pips rise and reverse over the sixteen months

from the summer of 2013, when former BoC governor Carney took the helm of the BoE and the

mad ‘rate hike’ frontrunning of the Pound by the usual suspects made the Pound run from about

1.50 to about 1.72 and then, when it all boiled down to a chimera, it all reversed like clockwork.

Since then, the Pound has meandered like a lost soul and the Brexit speculative fall has covered

the same distance: if I had to make a ‘prediction’ I would say that given that we are a year on

from the Brexit vote and a reversal has started to take shape, it is entirely possible that the

remaining six months may see a completion of this reversal to pre-Brexit-vote levels (around

1.40-1.45)… Whether one may want to call this ‘Pound strength’ or a ‘reversal of an uncalled-for panic selling’

is up to oneself, but how to trade it in these conditions is certainly a tough call in my modest

judgment.

Of course, as Peterma and I have shared on previous occasions, there is always this well-oiled

market motto (though best suited to stocks, one could muse):

so macron won.
what will the euro do in less than 3 hours from now on?

200 pips gap?
400?
5-600?

mind the gap


The importance for the 27 cannot be overestimated, Macron represents the new type of politician, straight and honest, not from the political elite.

I suspect that Pres Macron and Pres Trump will do business, many people regard them as opposites but they are not, disregard the media hype, these two guys will work together for the good of each their respective peoples.

http://forums.babypips.com/trading-discussion/66260-brief-share-questions-around-volume-any-contribution-welcome-97.html

Yeah, the gap thing, spoke about that over on gears.

Obviously it’s a Euro gap, Jack was mentioning Eur/Jpy - why this gap is such a big thing is the possibility of a double gap, so there are two gaps to aim for - not really a probability, je crois.

Bottom line is that the result remains Euro positive but do not chase :slight_smile:

Eur/Gbp to parity? i hope so for you…

:slight_smile: