60 years later, the beginning of the new EU

Yeah, the gap thing, spoke about that over on gears.

Obviously it’s a Euro gap, Jack was mentioning Eur/Jpy - why this gap is such a big thing is the possibility of a double gap, so there are two gaps to aim for - not really a probability, je crois.

Bottom line is that the result remains Euro positive but do not chase :slight_smile:

Eur/Gbp to parity? i hope so for you…

:slight_smile:

Eur/Gbp around current levels is very acceptable, extremes to either side makes business that little more difficult.

It’s all about planning coupled with a heavy dose of luck, I figure a 10 to 15% difference will prevail for most of this year, then likely the negotiations will go sour which would be Stg negative.

The upcoming UK election result has bittersweet expectations, a landslide could well signal a more dovish UK approach, or it could be the opposite, very difficult to fathom the signals from a ‘bloody difficult woman’, or is that just being a male me?

As the European trading session progresses, the gap up experienced at the Asian open last night in Euro pairs seems to have had a very.short lifespan; take a look at this 30-minute Eur/Gbp chart:


Yeah, hope none of the learners jumped in, there is a big gap on Eur/Jpy and Eur/Usd still to be closed, likely around that level before more Euro buying.

Eur/Gbp will likely tread water in the meantime.

Could take a week or so, Eur/Usd first.

Eur/Usd tried it’s best to close the gap yesterday, but today went back up, so it will be likely next week.

Eur/Jpy showing no sign - will take some Jpy buying to make any impression.

Meantime Eur/Gbp is as exciting as can be expected.

Some positive noises coming from Barnier yesterday despite the UK election rhetoric, he is a politician so understands the need to appeal to voters.

may be offtopic but funny

Emmanuel Macron proves why the Trump handshake matters - CNNPolitics.com

[video]https://youtu.be/cahph7TR0YA[/video]

OK - will give this new software a try, old timers like me take a while to get used to new things so I’ll see how it goes.

The EU27 and indeed GBP traders are in somewhat of a quandary re the UK election this week.

On the one hand a Tory landslide would strengthen the PM’s hand and she has repeated the mantra that no deal is better than a bad deal (her advisers would have cautioned that a no deal would make life extremely difficult for UK business).

Then would a reduced majority strengthen the Parliment’s hand, causing yet more ongoing uncertainty - it would seem that either scenario could be GBP negative - if ever there was a case for ‘wait and see’ for both the 27 and GBP traders then this is it.

Both scenarios I’ve outlined above are GBP negative - tonight a huge negative push on GBP, based on exit polls.

Best to wait for the results, but exit polls are usually a good yardstick.

anything that weakens the power of UK parliament or prime minister is GBP positive and FTSE positive and EUR positive and “insert random shorting here”-positive.

simply because anything that “stops” or “disturbs” the “men walking the wrong path” (the cliff) is seen as very positive news.

this world wide relief on the sole fact that the UK leadership is beeing weakened on the path it chosed might should be a warning to UK citizen that their leaders truly are doing things very wrong. but im sure warnings are beeig taken lightly, just like before brexit vote.

long life UKIP… eh no wait… they just imploded didnt they?

continental europe news and politics advice UK to go back to monarchy and abandon democraty. the country was run smarter and more efficient under a totalitarian King. (or queen)

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The exit polls were correct, Gbp sellers dominated - as I had outlined Gbp buyers were always going to be on the back foot regardless of the outcome.

Looking ahead, the arrangement with the DUP will be difficult.

Most UK people have little knowledge of these 10 MPs - EU 26 has even less.

The 27th member state, Republic of Ireland, will have already briefed them. The EU27 negotiating stance will remain unchanged. The changed UK political landscape is likely to lead to less harsh words from both sides which is a good thing and could well lead to some GBP buying in the shorter term.

The risk for the buyers lies with the stability of any arrangement that the Tory and DUP parties may agree.

My own knowledge of DUP is reasonably extensive, I would be hesitant on making a trading decision based on the premise of continued support for the next 5 years.

Btw, back six days ago I mentioned the PM’s advisers - after the election result they have been sacked (publicly have resigned).

The “no deal is better than a bad deal” mantra could now also be sidelined.

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Theresa May continue give statment in Brussels: ‘‘Very clear that UK will leave EU, but not Europe’’. Softer tone of Brexit talks, maybe?

The main opposition party in the UK, the Labour Party, have to date been ambivalent in their stance towards Brexit

Pre the recent election their attitude was of little importance, the focus, indeed the purpose of the election was to increase the majority of the ruling party.

This weekend Labour have signaled a major shift in their policy, unusually Labour would not be associated with Business interest, however their new policy statement is very much in line with Business aspirations.

Incoming week EU27 will offer a guarded welcome.

More talks concluded - looks like the divorce bill is causing some problems, this can be a difficult one due to the surrounding publicity thus far.

Progress on the Ireland aspect, but no details as yet.

Not bad so far, actually much better than many have been expecting - long way to go.

Just an update - divorce bill still a problem, the 20b offered fits snug with a 2 year transition so is sellable in the UK but not acceptable to the 27.

The changed political set up in UK is recognized in Europe, the difficulties that the PM faces, in particular with some members of cabinet who may well make a play for leadership, in this light the 27 have agreed to talk among themselves on a trade deal.

Good news is that UK media are reporting that this supposed huddle talk is a result of threats yet again of accepting a ‘no deal’ and resorting to WTO trading - job done.

" Citizens who have built their lives on the basis of rights flowing from the British membership of the EU face the prospect of losing those rights." (EU27 guidelines April 2017)

This week I spoke to a UK citizen living in France this past 20 years. Recently tried to renew her mobile phone contract, never a problem before but this time when the UK passport was produced it was “ce n’est pas possible”.

It is always the little people in the middle who suffer, the power players sleep well.

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There are aspects of Brexit that go unreported in the UK press, and in the 27.

In my own area Bombardier are under pressure from US, the EU would normally have had an input, but sadly they decided that the UK would have to fight this on their own.

In UK it is a small story - Bombardier vs Boeing - UK PM made a call to US President, but business is business, it’s a mere 4000 jobs.

For UK there is talk about Brexit with no deal and their planning for same, likewise in EU27.

So a hardening of attitudes.

I just wish that the hard guys would step back, there is no such thing as a winner or loser - just business and people’s jobs, their livelihood, what they bring home.

In manufacturing there is a concept, it’s called JIT.

We use it every day, a hard Brexit will take that away.

When we ‘export’ to the EU there is presently zero barrier, no VAT, no special records, just do the business and tell Intrastat at the end of the month, likewise when we ‘import’.

It’s not even recorded as export, it’s merely a ‘dispatch’ - effortless, seamless, minimal red tape - ideal for ‘Just In Time’.

JIT a little explained:

@peterma - As one of those who voted to join the “Common Market” all those years ago, I was annoyed afterwards that we were made to disband the “Commonwealth” - something which never apeared on the “Information” about “Going in” - That is what we joined - we did not join any form of political union.

That is why we voted to leave.

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Hi Falstaff,

Yeah I remember the vote you are referring to, but the UK was already a member by then, the public didn’t get to vote on entry to the EC, the 1975 vote was to ‘guage’ continued support and was non-binding.

The thrust of this thread is the EU27 going forward, I was saddened to see the lack of support for Bombardier from that quarter and have highlighted same.

The effect on manufacturing both in UK and EU27 will be most felt in the early days, one aspect is JIT.

TBH most business has zero interest in the reasons and politics etc - more how to protect and profit post Brexit.

One way of doing that is to be aware of the likely difficulties and just like trading then create and implement a plan.