I’m from the UK and we have a skewed view what the future holds for our economy.
What’s everyone’s predictions for the markets around Brexit on this week/ Thursday this week?
£ up or down?
Let’s all get on the profit bandwagon!!!
There are so many layers of complexity to the fundamentals behind Sterling trends (and it is not even trending at present) that at the moment it would not get you a clear directional edge if you were the smartest analyst around: and if anyone tells you that “It is time to Buy/Sell Sterling” then I say that they are lying, because forecasts from anyone always have that 50/50 chance of blowing in their face.
So the ‘profit bandwagon’ has nothing to do with trying to guess what the f++k is going on with all the big money behind the scenes or which section of said money could move Sterling or in which direction, but it has everything to do with having a plan or strategy with clear risk assessment, targets, stops etc. - all the boring stuff.
Living in the UK gives no more or less insight into what will eventually move price on the chart - that is the job of insiders and market makers (and we are neither) - thus I would say that in the global information age anyone from outwith the UK has as much chance of opening a good Sterling trade as anyone within it.
^^^ Put me down for “all the above” … 
Mine are not worth having (fortunately I don’t need to “predict” currency movements to trade them) … and to be honest I fairly strongly suspect that nobody else’s are, either.
That part I’ll drink to, happily 
(just not by trying to predict direction according to potential “news”). 
Hear, hear!!
Definitely not trying to predict any direction base on ‘‘news’’. Well, let the fractious Brexit negotiations, the UK-EU “divorce” settlement begin, question is would 2 years be enough?
Ironically when David Liddington, the very same who had to eat his own words now that he works for May’s government, was being heard at the house of Commons committee on the 2014 Scotland referendum, he was then Britain’s EU minister and told the committee that if Scotland left the UK it would have to reapply for EU membership, which meant that all member states would need to approve, and that this could take many years, as it is a complex process.
How can anyone think that the UK can renogotiate any deal with Europe in a couple of years? It is absurd.
Breathtaking absurdity.
The above quote was actually one that took me quite a while to understand - when starting to trade, at least.
I came into this ‘game’ [speculating really is a game] thinking that [I]trading[/I] FX was very much like that of stocks and shares; hence you really did base your trading decisions on where you [I]thought[/I] future price levels may actually be.
Of course after time, and playing around with FX derivatives, the penny finally dropped. It’s not about trying to figure out future price levels, but rather [U]playing with probabilities[/U] with which your edge is built upon. I’d go as far to say that I have no interest in future exchange rates, or indeed current exchange rates - a personal opinion that many find incredibility difficult to understand when you say that you [I]work with exchange rates[/I]… (how can the exchange rates mean nothing to someone who works with them - this then got me thinking again, I don’t really work with exchange rates, I use their underlying rates to implement a statistical edge. This could be applied to perhaps indices, CFDs, Futures…it just happens to be FX in this case)
Another example though of how ones understanding changes over time when becoming more experienced, both practically and theoretically.
Totally agree with this.
