I am not sure that “random” is the right description here. Perhaps erratic, complex, unpredictable, confusing, illogical, and surely many more descriptions might apply, but not really random. What one sees in market movements is often a function of what dimension of the market one is looking at. If one stares too long at price movements on a 5m timeframe then it is certainly hard to find any logic there. But on a daily, weekly, monthly timeframe there are clearly trends that form and continue and have an identifiable reason for them - albeit often after the event! - but that does not make it random, just maybe a little camouflaged…
We should always remember that foreign exchange is not all about speculators just taking a view. There is a real, commercial movement of funds between currencies which relate to changes in economic and trade conditions, government monetary policies, investment opportunities, risk developments, etc, etc. These are not random changes. However, when we add a considerable layer of speculative trading on time frames from weeks to mins or even ticks then there are interests in both directions at every pip we pass through.
This is why we need a strategy that can identify the red line that is winding through the fog of price irrationality and a brain that can interpret what is realistic.
One thing is for sure, there is no point is seeking an automated approach that works on repeated reaction anticipation in response to pre-determined events because a currency does not always react in the same way to the same events - and, of course, forex is about a relationship between two currencies, never just one.
Certainly, a currency pair may move considerably to certain news events, but not to all. You are referring here to a fast considerable move. But there are also moves that are considerable that can take place over a period of even years. Structural changes in economies, natural resources and industries, for example, can take a long time. Again, this depends on the timescale one is focusing on. If you only look at a 1 hour or 15m timeframes, for example, you will be see a disproportionately large and fast move after certain news events that may not be so unusual on a longer term chart.
I have never had this problem - ever. Even in relatively fast markets. I do not personally look to trade volatile data releases like NFP, but the unexpected can and does happen at other times, too - I have not had non-quotes or ignored stops. There are, of course, the famous “black swan” type events, which fit your description, but these are extremely rare and certainly not the norm for a trading environment.
Of course, there are brokers who will be guilty of these types of practices and it is a very important part of the trader set up process to find a reliable broker.
“Luck” in trading has been the topic of many threads here, and no doubt will continue to be. No doubt, luck is a useful friend, but I think profitability is more likely to related to an effective assessment of probabilities combined with a suitable risk/reward management and exposure control. These, I do not believe, can be easily or optimally embedded in an automated system which is designed to expect markets always to react in the same way to the same input - to quote a famous president “that won’t happen”.
Well at least this makes a change from the usual claims of conspiracy amongst the large banks, who apparently just manipulate the markets to feed off all the retail - which, if true, would be the very opposite of a random market…
Yes, these guys do often make money, but that is their business. Our business is trading. If we don’t make money trading then that is our own fault. I pay my broker for a service. I could not access these markets without them. They designed my trading platform and give it to me for free. They provide me with a market spread that is equivalent to interbank rates. They provide me with leverage to effectively trade an amount that is larger size than I actually have in my bank account. I am happy to pay a reasonable amount for all this and I don’t consider it a rip off.
Again, of course, we all know there are cowboys out there selling garbage to the innocent. But, again, it is up to us to tread carefully and get our learning from reliable source. In this respect, as in many others in trading, it can be a lonely walk.
…Just some thoughts on a quiet Friday evening…