In all seriousness, this is about the best write-up I have yet seen anywhere concerning the âshort life of a Newbie traderâ. A link to this post should be posted automatically after every new traderâs introduction post - it would probably save them years of wasted time and a lot of wasted money.
There are at least 3 simultaneous threads on this site that discuss why 90-95% of retail traders lose. Its all here, this post gives all the answers in one big nutshell.
Brilliant! Brilliantly written, brilliantly constructed and obviously written with sincerity and a lot of personal experience.
I would think that any trader will be able to identify with at least part of those stages if not all of them!
So, one might think, why should [I]anyone [/I]trade if it is not possible to gain?
Well for one thing, although the post describes many stages along the trader development route and the pitfalls that may occur (and often, no usually, do), it stops there. It does not describe actually [I]learning [/I]from those stages. It just describes a process of âoh, that didnât work, what shall I try nextâ. It entirely omits at every stage the application of the main tool that every trader needs to use that is situated approximately between, and slightly above, the left and right ear lobes.
It also only deals with extremes like jumping from scalping to 1:10 risk/reward position trading, for example:
[I]âYou learn about risk reward, and how you only need to be right once every 10 trades to make profitâ[/I]
There is a whole world between 1:1 and 1:10
But the OP does not explain why he thinks R/R always fails, he just concludes with,[I] âYou go back, and fail again, so you return to learningâ [/I] - that is one [I]huge [/I]generalisation and assumption!
But this is a serious read for ANY new trader. Read and be warned - and if you take away [I]anything [/I]from it, let it be this: [I]Learn [/I]from your journey, [I]learn [/I]your instrument , use your brain - it is what every successful professional does in every other field - why would you think that forex is any different.
Edited to add:
In a curious, double negative, kind of way, it is intriguing to ponder that if over 90% of traders lose, then if they all did a mirror image of their own trading then they would be over 90% successful. I have even seen at least one trader ask in exasperation how could he find a broker that would automatically [I]always [/I]fill his orders in the [I]opposite [/I]direction, but without him actually knowing it himself, otherwise he would automatically take that into account as well and still lose!
But the intrigue here is that, in theory, it actually [I]would [/I]work. In which case it significantly changes the target area where the problem lies.
The OP builds his case on the argument that it is the market itself that prevents a trader making money because it is untradeable due to its pseudo-random characteristics. But the fact that if 90+% traders actually traded in the opposite direction to their actual trades then they would have profited suggests powerfully (IMHO) that the problem lies in the trader and not the market - that is a crucial issue - and why we still have bumble beesâŚ
My technical edge is joining strong trends on pull-backs.
My fundamental edge if you can call it that is not being long JPY or short EUR when everyone else is selling JPY or buying EUR.
The rest of it is just statistics which I honestly donât collect. I do set a stop-loss based on TA: I exit winners based on weakening TA: I donât use set pip TPâs.
For the sake of completeness Iâll give this a go
[B]- Describe your Technical Edge[/B]
Keeping it simple, using the previous days high and low levels only. Nothing else, no indicators and a single 1H TF for all analysis.
[B]- Describe your fundamental Edge[/B]
I pay no attention to fundamentals what so ever. As a âtechnicalâ trader I go with the flow and take opportunities when they present themselves, regardless of news.
[B]- Describe your risk/reward ratio[/B]
Always fixed at 1:2 risk to reward
[B]- Describe your average number of trades per month[/B]
12
[B]
Describe your average trade Pips to TP[/B]
66
[B]- Describe your average trade Pips to SL[/B]
30
[B]- Describe the range and average duration of your trades[/B]
5 hours - closing any open positions on a Friday
I never open trades on a Friday. Mon-Thur is the trading week for me.
My compliments to Tommor and RISKonFX and thanks for inputting your trading guidelines.
I am a lot more risk averse than you two. Although the technical setup of the questions thrown here at the Bumble Bees are clear and positive, I feel the fundamental factors underlying this are too negative to risk a âtradeâ. I do not feel the OPâs interest is really to learn and develop his trading, rather he is asking us to set ourselves up like skittles to have something to aim at, for example:
Kind of cynical that bit about being lucky to have 5 bumble bees here?
But if you look at the statistics, this site has: [I]âThreads 67,962; Posts 702,807; Members 404,998;â[/I]
So finding 5 bumble bees out of 404,998 possibles is not an improbable result at all - in fact one might conclude that if there are still 5 left here actively posting then they just might have something to say that is actually [I]relevant [/I]to profitability - why else would they still be here - unless they are selling something, which, if they are, they are not very good at it, because it is not visible at allâŚ
I await the response from the OP with great anticipation!
Actually, here is one clue where the OP has gone wrong in his travels:
âYou backtest any pure technical system, and you can will blow your account sooner or later.â
Excluding the large institutions with the resources to do that properly, I would fully agree that any amateur attempting to produce an automated, repetitive system is doomed to failure.
On one hand we argue that the market is random (-like) and on the other we argue that any systematic approach doesnât work?! - well that conclusion does not require an Einstein.
But if one is used to really studying oneâs instrument and learning how it typically moves under certain sets of circumstances, like any seasoned hunter would do, then we are talking about an entirely different matter. Then we are dealing with when to shoot, and at what, rather than always just assuming that the bullet will always just hit your own foot.
I donât hunt BTW, well only with a camera, anyway -hereâs one brand new Newbie to the world that I âshotâ a few days back:
I suppose we are a band of brothers and sisters here, but sometimes it does feel like âthe blind leading the blindâ, as RiskOn put it⌠So after all the wonderful thinking and communicating (and sharing) that we do on here, the question of âcan one be profitable as a self-taught retail trader (of any instrument)?â still remains one that, being so subjective in its answer to each of us differently, cannot be resolved by any other than ourselves individually. . . There is where it becomes difficult to have a âone size fits allâ methodology or systemâŚ
Yes, I agree, I doubt there can be any method or system that is right for everyone. Everyone is different, has different ambitions (e.g. trading for income or capital building), different psychological makeups, and different circumstances (e,g, capital, available time, existing financial commitments) and so.
So every trader needs to develop an approach that fits their circumstances and goals.
This particular thread is different in that it is questioning whether [I]any [/I]trader can make a sustainable profit [I][U]at all[/U][/I].
An interesting thought here is that if retail traders cannot make profits because of the nature of the market rather than their own lack of expertise, then why is it that all the banks dealing in foreign exchange do not go bankrupt as well?
But regarding the question of âcan one be profitable as a self-taught retail trader (of any instrument)?â I really am not in a position to comment on that, as you know, my own training was very different.
Having said that, after my years in intâl banking, when I started my own account trading for real, I still found it an incredibly demanding and frustrating experience to adjust to the world of personal retail trading on shorter terms.
But I am confident that an individual can learn and make it in this business. It just demands the normal extreme effort, commitment, and dedication - and more than a little business sense, too, that most complex fields require.
I think youâve summed it up there Pip Me.
And that is why threads such as these , thoughtful, insightful and entertaining (have my popcorn at the ready at all times) as they are, ultimately and inevitably are a continuous loop of personal opinion and experience providing no conclusive answer to anything on an individual level. One persons âfactâ remains another persons âfictionâ.
Yes people can succeed and sustain that success (in trading or any other field) but not everyone does.
We come up with all kinds of hare-brained ideas throughout our lives and many donât pan out or are just completely unsuited to our personalities or patience levels.
I can do one or two things reasonably well but you could give me an eternity and I would still be lousy at the violin.
Well, thereâs a point: I have been wondering if Skype lessons would work, and have been looking into this but hardly anyone seems that keen, even in this so-called âdigital ageâ of ours.
Anyway, the violin is immensely rewarding after all the awful squeaks and squawks
Hi Iâm a few minutes new here. My mom actually keeps telling me, " you should, you should". So here i am i actually have an associateâs degree in finance and learned some things about this but never actually used what i have learned. So im here checking things out and thanks for your honesty. I appreciate it.
I think this is a good perspective to look at on the Forex Market and this topic is as old as the New York Stock exchange itself. The Random Walk Theory. Is the market random or does it make since. It is good to see more people presenting there ideas and experience on this topic. I myself would now like to see some profitable traders presenting there ideas. I have yet to see any profitable traders showing there experience. But with that said, and by the way I am not profitable and havenât done any trading, paper or otherwise in a while, I have drifted far and wide from Forex, but I am still there. So, obviously there are traders making a good profit, and there are mostly those who donât. Since the Internet and online brokering many a wishful retiree and get rich fanatic has fallen prey to false hopes of a 300 dollar broker account and pretty green and red charts that sustain the eye and appeal to those lustful thoughts of grandeur and heavenly lotto greenbacks just waiting to fall from the sky. Pie in the Sky, a dirty lie my friends. Unfortunately!
Iâm here too. I think Iâve posted THE question quite simply. Whatâs your edge? After a year we can see this is what youâll get in any FOREX related source: Excuses, abstract BS and silence.
Anyway, Iâm still searching Motherf#@s. When I find mine be sure I will post it here (After I profit and retire myself) and make you all shout "Iâm rich bbbbb#!@!#&ch!!!"
P.S. For the moment stick to shoulder head shoulder. Peace!