Vantagepoint software

[cbrecruit1]

I'm surprised about the positive review this EA has received as I have read other reviews on youtub and other sites and they have not been positive

[89tick]

I'm surprised about the positive review this EA has received as I have read other reviews on youtub and other sites and they have not been positive

cbrecruit,

Consider this scenario,

-You are a sales person for a software product that doesnt work very well.
-Many purchasers have posted negative comments about the product on various forums
- The only thing you need to post on these forums is an e mail address and you can create as many usernames here as you have e mails.

Do you think that there is just the slightest possibility that someone from VP might just be posting positive comments here to counter all the criticism? After all they can offer no proof the product works. I have seen this time and time again with VP, they have even had people banned from other forums for criticising the product.

Whatever you do dont fall for this, VP is a waste of money, I know this because I've had it a year and a half. The indicators are just moving averages and the neural index is just an average of previous days prices.

Posts that say things like 'my friend turned $200 into millions using VP' are ridiculous, you should not believe them.

ps can you tell me where to find the reviews on youtube please?

[Malcolmfx]

I almost bought the VP software. They email me once a month with 'trade of the month'. They expect me to believe their users held on for the full duration of 5000, and 10,000 pip moves, wile their 80% accurate signal, as I read it in the hindsight emails, said to unload the positions several times. I do believe the software can alert users to potential big moves, as the salesman did email me a future chart, had I acted on the information I would have made hundreds of pips that week. But I believe that was a 'cherry picked' chart, to persuade me to buy the software.
Malcolm

[89tick]

I almost bought the VP software. They email me once a month with 'trade of the month'. They expect me to believe their users held on for the full duration of 5000, and 10,000 pip moves, wile their 80% accurate signal, as I read it in the hindsight emails, said to unload the positions several times. I do believe the software can alert users to potential big moves, as the salesman did email me a future chart, had I acted on the information I would have made hundreds of pips that week. But I believe that was a 'cherry picked' chart, to persuade me to buy the software.
Malcolm

Malcolm,

Of course it was cherrypicked, ask him to send you the same chart for the past year and see what excuse you get. Like any moving average crossover it will work on occassions, however it will fail more often and you will lose overall.

[guru]

I just came across a copy of VP, but should I even use it? I keep hearing and reading a lot of bad feedback about the software. Thanks!

[marcusjhdon]

Hi

I recently spent some time analysing VantagePoint's "Predictive Neural Index" indicator and thought I'd share the results with you. As you will see, although the specific claims the company makes appear to be accurate, as far as I can tell it's still completely worthless. The following text is a copy of an email I sent to the company on 21st May 2012.

===

I've taken a look at the analyses by Dr Meyer and Dr Warnock, and also of those by Dr Harris and Dr Arcuri. Although their tests were technically accurate in terms of their methods and conclusions, I'm afraid I cannot see any evidence that VantagePoint's Predictive Neural Index (PNI) indicator is capable of providing any statistically-significant advantage, nor in fact that it has any predictive abilities beyond those available with simple, traditional (and free) indicators. Furthermore, I believe I can demonstrate conclusively that it does not –*at least with the sample data you provided.

The PNI indicator is described as a prediction of whether the 3-day simple moving average (SMA) of the typical price will be higher or lower in 2 days time. As I'm sure you know, a 3-day SMA in 2 days time will still use today's data for one third of its calculation. Also, a 3-day SMA lags the price by 1.5 days, so the prediction is only really for half a day in the future. Furthermore, by using the typical price (ie the average of the high, low and closing prices), the PNI does not even provide a directional forecast that you could reasonably expect to trade, since it only applies to the range of the price, not the closing price.

I compared the results from the PNI with some very simple predictions of my own based on the current slope of a moving average over various periods and using several different averaging methods. In each of these tests, I predicted a rise in the 3-day SMA of the typical price in 2 days time (equivalent to a PNI of 1) where the slope of the moving average was positive, and a fall (equivalent to a PNI of 0) where the slope was negative. The full results are included in the attached spreadsheet.

For the sample data that you supplied, from June 2010 to May 2012, the PNI indicator achieved 78.1% accuracy for both the S&P 500 and the GBPUSD. Over the same period, the slope of a 3-day exponential moving average of the closing price, for example, produced an accuracy of 78.2% for the S&P 500 and 77.6% for the GBPUSD. With a 2-day exponential moving average, the accuracy for the S&P 500 increased to over 80%, while still achieving an accuracy of 76.4% for the GBPUSD. On average, these results have an accuracy of 78.1% – identical to those achieved by VantagePoint's PNI indicator.

I accept it is possible that the PNI may perform better if I were to test it over a wider range of markets (and I would be happy to do so if you were to provide the additional data). However, given my understanding of the mathematics involved – and given that your own published results state very similar accuracies –*I would be very surprised if this were the case. I'm also surprised that the mathematicians and scientists who have verified your results have apparently failed to spot these facts.

If you believe I have made some error in my calculations, or have some other information you can provide that might change my opinion of VantagePoint, I would be very interested to hear it. As a courtesy, I will wait until Saturday 26th May before sharing these results via my blog, or any other website, in order to give you sufficient time to respond.

Marcus Don
bionictrader.co.uk

[TradeGreen]

Whoa there DollaBill... do you realize what it would take to turn $200 into a Million in just 8 months? That would require a total return of 2410% for the 8-month period. It's clear to me that somebody is NOT telling the truth about VP software

[Buzsaw]

Hi

I recently spent some time analysing VantagePoint's "Predictive Neural Index" indicator and thought I'd share the results with you. As you will see, although the specific claims the company makes appear to be accurate, as far as I can tell it's still completely worthless. The following text is a copy of an email I sent to the company on 21st May 2012.

===

I've taken a look at the analyses by Dr Meyer and Dr Warnock, and also of those by Dr Harris and Dr Arcuri. Although their tests were technically accurate in terms of their methods and conclusions, I'm afraid I cannot see any evidence that VantagePoint's Predictive Neural Index (PNI) indicator is capable of providing any statistically-significant advantage, nor in fact that it has any predictive abilities beyond those available with simple, traditional (and free) indicators. Furthermore, I believe I can demonstrate conclusively that it does not –*at least with the sample data you provided.

The PNI indicator is described as a prediction of whether the 3-day simple moving average (SMA) of the typical price will be higher or lower in 2 days time. As I'm sure you know, a 3-day SMA in 2 days time will still use today's data for one third of its calculation. Also, a 3-day SMA lags the price by 1.5 days, so the prediction is only really for half a day in the future. Furthermore, by using the typical price (ie the average of the high, low and closing prices), the PNI does not even provide a directional forecast that you could reasonably expect to trade, since it only applies to the range of the price, not the closing price.

I compared the results from the PNI with some very simple predictions of my own based on the current slope of a moving average over various periods and using several different averaging methods. In each of these tests, I predicted a rise in the 3-day SMA of the typical price in 2 days time (equivalent to a PNI of 1) where the slope of the moving average was positive, and a fall (equivalent to a PNI of 0) where the slope was negative. The full results are included in the attached spreadsheet.

For the sample data that you supplied, from June 2010 to May 2012, the PNI indicator achieved 78.1% accuracy for both the S&P 500 and the GBPUSD. Over the same period, the slope of a 3-day exponential moving average of the closing price, for example, produced an accuracy of 78.2% for the S&P 500 and 77.6% for the GBPUSD. With a 2-day exponential moving average, the accuracy for the S&P 500 increased to over 80%, while still achieving an accuracy of 76.4% for the GBPUSD. On average, these results have an accuracy of 78.1% – identical to those achieved by VantagePoint's PNI indicator.

I accept it is possible that the PNI may perform better if I were to test it over a wider range of markets (and I would be happy to do so if you were to provide the additional data). However, given my understanding of the mathematics involved – and given that your own published results state very similar accuracies –*I would be very surprised if this were the case. I'm also surprised that the mathematicians and scientists who have verified your results have apparently failed to spot these facts.

If you believe I have made some error in my calculations, or have some other information you can provide that might change my opinion of VantagePoint, I would be very interested to hear it. As a courtesy, I will wait until Saturday 26th May before sharing these results via my blog, or any other website, in order to give you sufficient time to respond.

Marcus Don
bionictrader.co.uk

Can you make your analysis available please.