Luck or skill?

Michael increased his account by some 46% in 8 months with a win rate on 150 wins to 1 loss, all on buys on commodities, a falling market (the CRB decreased from early May until the end of August by slightly over 20%) and indices.

So why the confusion - why come here to learn as you posted earlier, why not just keep it simple and go ask your friend and learn from him?

Btw, he got a brilliant rate for his Ā£8000.00, at the end of March best I could get was 1.345 (10,760 Euro), so well done to Michael, brilliant work all round :).

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Yeap, thatā€™s what Iā€™ll be doing! I will explore his strategy and practice on demo accountā€¦

Good. Use demo account as far as you can. You can use someoneā€™s strategy to see if it fits to you too.

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Do not blindly believe the statistics shown by other traders, instead plan your trading ways by which you would make realistic gains which satisfies you in all manner. Thus, it is important to fine tune our skills and start reaching our target.

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I believe the most simple strategies are the most profitable

I agree. You donā€™t need to complicate yourself with many indicators as long as you have the simplest way to analyze the marketā€¦

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Complicating the charts with lots of lines and indicators will only increase your tension level. You just need to concentrate on price action and upcoming news of major economies of the world.

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I agree. Too many indicators at once can give contradicting signals and may end up confusing you rather than helping you. Having a clear, not too complicated strategy in mind and being disciplined about using it is the most productive approach to trading.

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I completely agree with you, keeping it simple means keeping mental clutter out when making decisions in the moment. However, can [B][I]you[/I][/B] explain how this (your friendā€™s) system works from step A to Z? If you can, then use it and make a 100:1 win loss ratio. If you canā€™t explain it and its a complete mystery, then how can you learn and apply it?

Also, you said earlier you were looking more into it, so did you find out more what the system is? Can you share with all of us what the basis of his trading is? Naked price action? Ichimokus? SMAs? Even if he was using ā€œgut feelingā€ there must still be some indication (gurgles, croaks, groaning) when his gut is telling him to get in and out so effectively. No?

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Indeed. Iā€™ve known people with too complicated strategies who were not only having difficulties explaining them, but who were also getting confused while using them themselves.

hello godspeed.

Yes I have updates, Iā€™ve not had the time to post as Iā€™ve been trying to work on my trading strategy :slight_smile: My apologiesā€¦

regards Michael, he checks all time frames before taking a trade. I assume that demand and supply is key to his success. He doesnā€™t use stop loss nor take profit, he closes the trade once he is satisfied with the profit, he always tells me that patience is the key to this game and you shouldnā€™t worry if the trade is against you. he showed me that he has got many losses but overall his live account is now 197k. by the way he doesnā€™t trade forex at all. He uses no Indicators at!! Iā€™m really confusedā€¦

If he is not trading forex, then what is he trading?

he only trades commodities and indices. mainly commodities.

A few months ago I asked him why he doesnā€™t trade forex? he told me forex wonā€™t ever make you rich unless you are rich.

This is the common mindset which most of the traders have that the forex trading business is risky and certainly it is and only those who can manage this risk to their benefit are the survivors reaping its benefits.

Skills are major point, but without drop of luck it is impossible to succeed.

I believe anybody can do and have what they want here if they apply themselves. I donā€™t buy the gut idea. On the other hand, weā€™re trading such a small amount of our capital, whoā€™s to say what this teen is capable of. I use stops and always will. If this was really easy and effortless, everybody would be trading. Who would pump our gas and prepare our Big Macs? It took me months to realize I could actually make money when price takes a dive. I didnā€™t know back then. My broker was the one who told me. 3 years later, at 3 this morning, I generated over 40 pipsā€¦ in 6 minutes. Iā€™m sorry I stated that incorrectly. The market ā€˜allowedā€™ me to generate the pips

I donā€™t know about impossible, but it certainly becomes that much harder.

The most intellectual people do not depend upon luck, but for those are bound by emotions its quite common that they get stuck with the luck factor.