Hey Guys,
I write a weekly blog on how the market reacted during the previous week as well as identifying likely trade opportunities for the week ahead.
I work in the forex industry and write these reports for a group of traders I work with. People are always surprised when I say how much I love doing it!
There is nothing top secret in them so I thought I’d try coming on here and contributing a little to people starting out trading.
I look forward to hearing some feedback from you guys 
I’m not allowed to post a link to my free blog with all the chart images and detailed analysis because it’s deemed advertising???
What the hell…?
I was going to use this thread to answer questions and help you guys out if you had your own trade ideas, but I’m not sure I can be bothered posting the whole report and uploading the images onto this thread to be honest.
Just go ahead and rewrite the analysis here,its rather too early for links
Let me at 'em, let me at 'em! Looking forward to reading your analysis, man!
Here is my report from Monday. I’ve only included the text because it’s a pain uploading the charts onto this thread.
Thanks!
Market Overview: Week Ending 25 August 2013
GBPUSD
GU has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the month propelled by strong domestic data in conjunction with USD weakness. This has resulted in a significant bullish move which has seen GU move up over 5c over the course of this month. With current uncertainty revolving around the Pound and the US dollar this, it is possible that we may see an extension of the decline that commenced towards the end of the last last week’s NY session.
If GU is looking at a continuation lower, the first support level would lie at 155431 (DS1) followed by 154999 (DS2). However should GU fall though both support levels, then a move lower to 154405 (DS3) will come into view. Alternatively, a break higher will see a move back to 156015 (DP) which will be the next level to watch. A further break above this level will see immediate resistance lie at 156404 (76%) which may contain GU within a bearish continuation trend. However, breaking 76% will promote further movement north, bringing the following targets into contention: 156441(DR1) followed by a re-test of 15706(DR2). If GU successfully breaks above 157, the next target will be 157447(DR3).
EURUSD
Similar to the Pound, the Euro ended the week sitting at the top of its range reaching a high of 134514 which surpassed the high of the most recent previous peak at 134148.
From its current position of 133764, a continuation north will see the next target at 134 – 134146 (DR1) followed by 134610 (DR2). If EU breaks above 134610, a move towards 134830 will be a top level to watch for in regards to intra-day top resistance. However should it continue with its retracement south from last week, this will see movement back to 133549(76%) for support. If supported at 76%, this will keep EU within the scope of a bullish sentiment. Alternatively, a break lower from here will see 133400 (DP) re-tested once again for support. Breaking DP will promote further movement south while also confirming a rejection of the 134 region. From here the next support levels below DP lie at 133263 (33%) followed by 13315 (23%). A fall through 23% will expose greater decline with targets at 133098(DS1), followed by 132640(DS2) and then 132340(DS3).
AUDUSD
Unlike the other majors against the USD, AU commenced a decline from the start of the week to the very end, without much relief. When looking at the 4 hour chart, the high of 92326(19th Aug) aligns closely with the high of 92204 (12th Aug) confirming a double top upon the break of 91013(DR2). Last week, AU closed the last NY session positioned around 76% and should 90309(76%) succeed in containing AU within its prominent bearish trend, a move back towards 90 (strong psychological support level) will be next in sight.
AU has already broken this level recently, which promoted a re-test of the mid 89 region once again. If AU manages another successful attempt to break 90 and then then 89416(DS1), the next target lower will be 88784. Breaking both support levels, a re-test of the low made on the 2nd Aug 88473 will be the next target. This will be followed by a further attempt to reach a new low below 88, with 87585(WS2) as a supported bottom.
USDJPY
UJ ended the week retracing from the recent high above 99 upon weaker US New Home Sales figures. This left UJ sitting just above DP which still places the pair within the parameters of a continuation of the uptrend formed last week.
Within the immediate view, a retracement back to 98440(DP) can be seen as a potential support level which may send UJ back north towards resistance at 98964(76%). Should this level beak higher, a target of 991527 will be opened followed by 99589(DR2).However, caution is advised upon any move higher towards 99 -100 as this area may be met with sellers determined to restrain UJ from making any significant progress north. Therefore my bias for this pair would be to in favour of seeking shorting opportunities upon resistance/rejection at higher key levels. Alternatively, a break lower near current levels (from DP) will see movement south with the 97 region within view. The first target sits at 97928(DS1) followed by 97109(DS2) and then 96676(DS3).
Trade Setups: Week commencing 2 September 2013
GBPUSD
The break of the top consolidation formed last week opened the path to test lower while the bearish 3 candle move from 155743 to 0155044 demonstrated its strength upon breaking DR1 straight to DP where it found temporary relief. The pinbar (low of 154813) printed on the 27th August prompted GU to test higher which upon reaching 100% rejected accordingly. This indicated that bearish sentiment was in play and that a re-test of DP would determine whether GU would aim for lower targets.
Level to Watch:
155118
What to look for:
BUY: On break above 155118
SELL: On bbreak below 15503
Having rejected 154262, GU managed to settle back above 155. If GU breaks higher, this will bring the top targets into view. However movement south will then see 155022 (DP) as the next support level. Upon renewed weakness, a break of DP will expose the lower targets.
Bullish Levels:
T1: 155380, T2: 155760, T3: 156270
Bearish Levels
T1: 154530, T2: 154160, T3: 153690
Potential Catalysts:
BOE Interest Rate Decision, BOE Asset Purchase Facility (Sept 5), Consumer Inflation Expectations, GDP Estimate (Sept 6)
EURUSD
Continuing from the inverted hammer printed on the 20th Aug, EU finally broke lower from the top range, leading to a slide down to last week’s DS1. Printing a pinbar at this low has brought into focus the possibility of a retracement higher first before another attempt south. A break of the previous day’s low (131727) will support a continuation lower.
Level to Watch:
132350
What to look for:
BUY: On break above 132350
SELL: On break below 131920
A break above DP will bring the higher targets into view. However containment under this level will represent a bearish continuation with movement back towards 132. A further decline from here will expose the lower targets.
Bullish Levels:
T1: 133094, T2: 134083, T3: 134781
Bearish Levels
T1: 131432, T2: 130680, T3: 129720
Potential Catalysts:
GDP figures (Sept 4), ECB Interest Rate, ECB Statement (Sept 5)
AUDUSD
AU has now managed to penetrate the 90 level, which has most recently acted as support, reviving AU from any attempted dips below this level. With the latest NY close under 90, this has now re-adjusted the levels placing AU well within the reach of the high 80s once again. Given its strong a bearish sentiment, the re-visitation of these lows may potentially open the doors to a continuation lower.
Level to Watch:
89418
What to look for:
BUY: On break above 89418
SELL: On break below 89072
Look for a break above 89418 to consider the higher targets. A break below 76% will see the next support level at 89183 (DP). A break below DP will bring the lower levels in view with a possible test of the high 87 region to 88 as a potential intra-day bottom.
Bullish Levels:
T1: 89492, T2: 90010, T3: 90280
Bearish Levels
T1: 88643, T2: 88335, T3: 87767
Potential Catalysts:
RBA Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement (Sept 3), GDP figures (Sept 4)
USDJPY
It was a nice turn for UJ who started the week set to “sell mode” but shifted gears mid week, ending with a reversal higher with price falling back within range. The failure to continue its bearish descent does now bring into contention at least a retracement higher before another attempt lower.
Level to Watch:
99330
What to look for:
BUY: On break above 98330
SELL: On break below 98017
Should price hold above 98013 (DP), look for 98330 (76%)to either contain price or break above.If UJ breaks above 98330, this will bring the higher targets into view. However a break back below DP will expose the lower targets.
Bullish Levels:
T1: 133094,T2: 134083, T3: 134781
Bearish Levels
T1: 131432, T2: 130680, T3: 129720
Potential Catalysts:
GDP figures (Sept 4),ECB Interest Rate, ECB Statement (Sept 5) NFP (Sept 6)
Is anyone reading this stuff?
Hey guys,
I’ve just updated my blog.
LiveForexTrading.info Market Analysis
Some great opportunities coming through this week.
Good luck, hopefully you get some value from my work
Looking forward to seeing your trade biases and potential trade setups for this week. Gonna be an interesting one with the FOMC coming up.
Thanks for the feedback PipDiddy!
I was wondering if anyeone was reading this.
Yes, today will be interesting!