29.07.2014 9:09 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: pair receives support from S&P agency
Buy on a level breakthrough of 0.9421 with 0.9495 target. Stop loss = 0.9370.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Today, S&P agency confirmed Australia’s credit rating at AAA, with a stable outlook. At the moment, the yield spread between 10-year government bonds of Australia and the US is 96 basis points, despite the US being lower on the S&P rating scale: AA+, which makes the nominal yield in investing in Australian bonds higher.
AUDUSD, H4
31.07.2014 9:09 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: under pressure against a background of deterioration of business activity in Australia’s construction sector
Sell on rebound from 0.9330 level with 0.9210 target. Stop loss = 0.9400.
Reason for the trading strategy.
The number of approvals issued for new construction in Australia decreased in June by 5.0% (m/m) after an increase of 10.3% (m/m) in May. The data shows a reduction in business activity in the construction sector. In addition, pressure on the Aussie is being placed by a decrease in the index of goods exported to Australia in the Q2 quarter of 2014 by 7.9% (q/q).
AUDUSD, H4
28.08.2014 8:08 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: growth on the back of increased capital expenditure in the private sector in Australia
Buy on rebound from 0.9344 level with 0.9400 and 0.9470 targets. Stop Loss = 0.9300.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Despite July’s decline of 5.7% (m/m) in the sale of new homes in Australia, news about the growth of capital expenditure in the private sector there is bolstering the Aussie. The last indicator for Q2 in 2014 increased by 1.1% (q/q), which is lower than the forecast of -0.9% (q/q). The desire of Australian households to spend more than save could lead to inflationary pressures in the economy, which will affect the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
AUDUSD, H4
02.09.2014 9:09 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: under pressure against the background of maintaining Australia’s key interest rate at 2.5%
Buy on rebound from 0.9270 level with 0.9320 target. Stop loss = 0.9230.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Today, negative data on the current operations of the balance surplus in Australia was published. This indicator for Q2 in 2014 fell from (-7.8 billion) to (-13.7 billion). Also today, the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate in the country at 2.5%. However, follow-up comments were made, stating that the current value of the Aussie significantly exceeds its fundamental assessment.
AUDUSD, H4
03.09.2014 9:09 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: growth after the publication of Australia’s GDP for Q2 of 2014
Buy on rebound from a 0.9270 level with a 0.9320 target. Stop loss = 0.9230.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Australia’s GDP in Q2 of 2014 increased by 3.1% (y/y) with a forecast of 3.0% (y/y). The data reflect an increase in aggregate demand in the domestic economy, which favorably influences the course of the Aussie.
AUDUSD, H4
11.09.2014 8:08 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: growth after publication of labor market data for Australia
Buy on a level breakthrough of 0.9217 with 0.9287 target. Stop loss = 0.9150.
Reason for the trading strategy.
In August, the employment rate in Australia rose by 121.0 thousand with a forecast of +15.2 thousand. The unemployment rate in the same period fell from 6.4% to 6.1%. It is worth noting that such a sharp increase in (total) employment was largely due an increase in part-time employment by 106.7 thousand. In August, the number of full-time employed grew by 14.3 thousand people. The news is positive for the course of the “Aussie”. Opening long positions in the AUDUSD pair is worth considering above the intraday maximum of 0.9217.
AUDUSD, H4
10.10.2014 8:08 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: under pressure due to lower dynamics of lending in Australia
Buy on a level breakthrough of 0.8800 with 0.8900 target. Stop loss = 0.8740.
Reason for the trading strategy.
The Aussie has adjusted itself to the 0.8745 support level after the publication of negative statistics on the dynamics of lending in Australia. In particular, the number of approved housing loans in the country in August decreased by 0.9% (m/m), and of investment loans - by 0.1% (m/m).
AUDUSD, H4
15.10.2014 9:09 AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar remains attractive near the 0.8650 support level
Buy on rebound from 0.8650 level with 0.8750 target. Stop loss = 0.8600.
Reason for the trading strategy
Today, the Aussie will be supported by the October increase of 0.9% (m/m) in the Westpac Consumer confidence index in Australia. However, the search of long positions on the Aussie should be considered above of 0.8650 the level.
AUDUSD, H4
20.11.2014 7:07 AUDUSD
The Aussie is approaching the annual minimum of 0.8538
Buy on rebound from 0.8538 level with 0.8600 target. Stop loss = 0.8480.
Reason for the trading strategy
The Australian dollar came under pressure against the background of China’s HSBC business activity index in the manufacturing sector falling from 50.4 to 50.0 p. In the evening, the Aussie will be likely find support near the 0.8538 level, if the October consumer price index in the US actually declines by 0.1% (m/m).
AUDUSD, H4
01.12.2014 7:07 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: under pressure against the background of a reduction in business activity in China’s production sector
Sell on a level breakthrough of 0.8412 with 0.8318 target. Stop loss = 0.8470.
Reason for the trading strategy
In November, the PMI in China’s manufacturing sector declined from 50.8 p. to 50.3 p., which was worse than the forecast of 50.5 p. The Australian dollar had a nervous reaction to the slowdown in the economic activity in the largest Asian economy, and fell to the 0.8412 level.
AUDUSD, H4
02.12.2014 7:07 AUDUSD
AUDUSD: growth against the background of maintaining Australia’s key interest rate at 2.5%
Buy on a level breakthrough of 0.8539 with 0.8615 target. Stop loss = 0.8490.
Reason for the trading strategy
The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. According to the bank, the pace of economic growth in Australia will be slightly below the trend that has prevailed for several quarters. Today, an assessment of Australia’s balance of payments in Q3 of 2014 was published, proving to be better than expected. We believe that the strongly oversold Aussie will in the short term test the resistance level of 0.8615.
AUDUSD, H4
04.12.2014 7:07 AUDUSD
The Australian macroeconomic statistics has not helped the Aussie
Sell on a level breakthrough of 0.8376 with 0.8318 target. Stop loss = 0.8426.
Reason for the trading strategy
The October retail sales and trade balance figures for Australia published today were better than expected. However, they did not give proper support for the Aussie. The expectations of an increase in US interest rates next year, “play into the hands” of the American currency.
AUDUSD, H4
