In need of swing trading help!

Trading Systems
13

While this is true its only a very small portion of the market that is trading the news ! people like yourself im guessing with a name like global macro… but all news causes is short term volatility.

If [I]you[/I] really think about it who is actually trading fx on a large scale, its banks, hedge funds and commercials. They [B]ARE[/B] the market, the at home retail traders are small fry. You only have to look at the COT futures data to see where the real volume comes from. These guys do not care what the global macro situation is like because they are either;
1: Purchasing currency for clients (eg large corporations) in the instance of a bank.
2: Hedging cross currency portfolio exposure in the case of a hedge fund.
3: A central bank or the institutions like the IMF, World bank or BIS buying currency to achieve economic outcomes…eg increased export.

All three of these guys make up most of the $4 Trillion “traded” each day and not really any of them enter the market because they want to…its because they have to do business with clients and the global macro picture doesn’t even come into it!

14

anyway this is getting a bit off topic…can no one suggest a good swing trading strategy ?

15

[QUOTE=“FXmug;663348”]
All three of these guys make up most of the $4 Trillion “traded” each day and not really any of them enter the market because they want to…its because they have to do business with clients and the global macro picture doesn’t even come into it![/QUOTE]

Macro economic events and data are pretty much the ONLY thing central banks look at, and since the hedge funds and big investors look to the central bank for direction, everything boils down to the economic data.

16

Hedge funds are hedging currency exposure…ie if its a US fund taking a European position, they need to then hedge out the currency from the trade, otherwise if the position moves 5%+ for them and the currency weakens against the euro by 5% they are net no different. Also as i said the big banks are mainly taking positions in FX markets for customers than need foreign currencies for business transactions. There as simply no big banks prop trading fx because the volatility just isnt there for them any more. They make their money in other ways now. between the two that accounts for about 80% of the volume in the fx markets.
so what you say simply isnt true. Also can you please stop taking the thread off topic just for your own egotistical reasons.

17

Global Macro, most retail traders would agree with you…good luck. FXMug, I can show you my strategy for nothing in return. Your only investment will be time and effort. If you’re interested, you’ll figure out a way to reach me.

18

yes if its profitable i’d be very interested thanks !

19

[QUOTE=“atrwilder;663358”]Global Macro, most retail traders would agree with you…good luck. FXMug, I can show you my strategy for nothing in return. Your only investment will be time and effort. If you’re interested, you’ll figure out a way to reach me.[/QUOTE]

No they don’t actually. Most retailers don’t want to have anything to do with fundamentals and think they can make it using price action, candlestick patterns, and indicator strategies. A quick perusal of any trading forum is more then enough evidence of that. To each their own :slight_smile:

20

myfxbook search: “User atrwilder wasnt found.”

21

I agree…For some reason, majority of retail traders they disregard fundamentals as part of the learning process and add to their trading strategies. It is because it is easier to look at chart pattern, candlestick pattern or even volumes. Knowing and becoming aware of when these big moves are coming from (due to macro economics events) will have a high probability of winning trades. Everyone is different but I think long term learn how fundamental works even if it is difficult to understand to some…

Truthfully, I don’t know how am I be able to trade and make profits while working full time not to mention using only my " smart phone" to trade without trading fundamental and news events… I probably won’t be here and still trade…focused more on fundamental then technical.

22

In one statment I could shutdown your theory about macro economic data trumping technical intermarket cycles n price patterns. But ehh no offense but given your demeanor, I don’t consider you worthy.

23

[QUOTE=“FXmug;663357”]Hedge funds are hedging currency exposure…ie if its a US fund taking a European position, they need to then hedge out the currency from the trade, otherwise if the position moves 5%+ for them and the currency weakens against the euro by 5% they are net no different. Also as i said the big banks are mainly taking positions in FX markets for customers than need foreign currencies for business transactions. There as simply no big banks prop trading fx because the volatility just isnt there for them any more. They make their money in other ways now. between the two that accounts for about 80% of the volume in the fx markets.
so what you say simply isnt true. Also can you please stop taking the thread off topic just for your own egotistical reasons.[/QUOTE]

And this is why you are asking for trading systems even though having four years trading experience under your belt :slight_smile: by all means carry on.

24

Because he’s being honest with himself. Showing you all how its done. Thats how you combat arrogance. Keep up the good work, lets see if you can defeat impulsivity.

25

Bro, have you ever considered a different approach to how you can participate in the market. Swing trading may just not be for you. I work 10+ hrs a day but still have a good strategy trading off the 70 tick chart. As you said yourself, the possibilities how one can go about extracting pips from the market is many and varied. Don’t limit yourself to just swing trading.

Also specialize in one or two pairs. As the saying goes jack of all trades, master of none. No room for Jack here.

For the rest of you numb nut more “senior” traders, ponder this

26

You guys are partially right as you all know my fundamental analysis has always been sound. However I look at intermarket analysis and that is what makes the fundamentals relevant. Fxmug is correct in saying hedge funds don’t buy or sell because they want to it is because they must. So they move the market in line with fundamentals because these build confidence in the masses which keeps the market moving.

Most of the time the information is stale by the time we act on it. How many of us can interpret what data is relevant? E.g. GDP is up 1% this year from last year but down 2% from 2 years ago, CPI is up ·1% BOE is indicating a rate hike. Wages however have been declining for the past year the pound is already trading at 1.7000 and testing new highs on the news. Would you buy or sell sterling? Seeing this scenario has already played out and many people in this very forum went long at 1.7000 break I guess the answer is easy but it will be nice to hear what people actually did. At the time the market had no respect for the fundamentals and sold sterling to the current level it is today. So imo technicals are way more important but if you know the fundamentals the market is focusing on and you have good info you can profit. In inefficient market hypothesis this is called asymmetric information problem.

I am getting really exasperated with forums I think I got bitten by the bug and just realised that I probably need a break. Truth is if people don’t make money from this game now and start growing beyond these silly arguments regulation will soon push many out and these forums won’t exist. Already the US has reduced leverage, soon the UK will demand the same, we may see credit checks and net worth tests. I wonder how many will still be here.

27

This is exactly why i was dubious about joining a forum… they tend to be where egotistical ****s hangout. People “think” they are always right no matter what.

But like I said earlier no ONE person or “System” is [B][I]the[/I][/B] answer. The price of any market is the emergent effect of billions of market participants all acting in their own self interest (selfish)!
The current price is the expression of all those actions! That includes people trading macro news, people day trading from home using TA, banks buying billions in currency for business transactions… no one single way is right.[U] If there was one perfect way then there would be no market for any of us to trade[/U] !!!

Anyway I’m bored of arguing semantics already…All i wanted is someone to say, “hey! I trade like this and I can make good money…”

not that hard now is it??

28

[QUOTE=“FXmug;663417”]
Anyway I’m bored of arguing semantics already… [b]All i wanted is someone to say, “hey! I trade like this and I can make good money…”

not that hard now is it??[/b][/QUOTE]

You mean like my original post?

[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;663246”]

It’s simple. Swing trading is all about the fundamentals. Determine the directional bias of the pair based off the fundamentals, use the RSI to pick entries in a ranging market and use fibs to enter on pullbacks in a trending market. Thats all there is to it. [/quote]

:wink:

29

As a swing trader you should never care about fundamentals (but pay attention at the market around the big news, those can shift a trend around). A swing trader should hold and/or add-on to a position for at least 1 week and as much as 3 months (eg eurusd short from july to october). You should only care about the tech analysis for daily/weeky charts and make very small risks.

30

I’m part of a trading group that I think you could benefit massively from especially because you want to trade from dailys and up. I don’t know why people trade 15 minute and 1 hour charts. Who wants to be glued to a screen all day? If you wanna be a position trader you need to be good at the fundamentals!, mabey that’s what you’re missing. I want to tell you what it’s called but I’m scared I get slammed for marketing. How ja send a private message on this site?

31

No offence but I don’t agree with any of that!
I’m a swing trader and there’s no way I’d leave positions open over the weekend incase it gaps against me.
On top of that, if I didn’t do a fundemental analysis every week I wouldn’t know whether to buy or sell, fib the down leg from last week or the last big up leg on the daily.
I’m not being totally fair, I do agree with one of your points!.. Keep the risk to a minimum!

32

Wow, some very interesting comments here.

I am a Swing Trader. I have a Methodology shown in various threads on this site (Trade Journal, Swing Trading) which is based on Candlestick Patterns, Signals, Consolidation etc. on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts. Holding Period varies but it can be between 4 to 7 Days on average. Unfortunately, as was mentioned earlier, it is difficult to share the method without being banned for solicitation. As such, I only share the results of my trades.

I used to day trade the smaller time frames, but with mediocre to poor results. It was only when I lifted my head up and looked at the larger trends did I see a realistic way of making money. 90% of the time that I traded these trends I made money (even placed in the top 10 twice of a popular Demo Trading Contest). However, due to impatience, I went back to Day Trading thinking that there was still some way to make money this way-but continued to lose again.

Finally, I spent the last year demo trading the Swing Trading Method, ironed out the kinks, set up strong parameters and rules and now use it on my Live Account once more.

Fundamentals are not necessary for my way of Swing Trading. As FxMug stated, most of it is short-term and volatile and are often uncorrelated to the major trends on the Daily and 4 Hour Charts. Some people may study fundamentals and benefit from its use, but my way of Swing Trading doesn’t require it.

By the way, I am an Economist by Profession (M.Sc.) and have worked at my country´s Central Bank.

As you will see from my thread, (I will update shortly) after only 7 trades, I am up by close to 400 Pips, providing a return of 13.0% (some trades were missed as I spent time revising the Methodology). Based on the strategy and the number of opportunities to be provided in the next few months, I would only need 9 trades to realize a 100% return - assuming no losses of course.

Now 13.0% might sound small compared to expectations or what others are actually making with their Swing or Day Trading strategy. But my thinking is that if you can generate close 50% - 100% on an Investment over a few months by trading only 2 or 3 times per month, without the stress of constantly monitoring a market, assessing unnecessary conflicting economic data or indicators, while you keep your Day Job, I would take that any day given what I have been through with day trading. Can you imagine what that would represent for someone in 2-5 years?

Swing Trading. Thats where the money is.

Duane Shepherd