I have been making decent pips on and off for months from the concerted downtrend on USD/CAD, but have basically been pretty flat on it since early May. I think of it almost as though the pair is a little exhausted from all that tumbling, so until the Daily chart gives more clarity I will be staying out and looking for clearer charts. I realize that your opening question was based on the Hourly chart, but the basic question - will Price move up or down? - is one that could be asked on too many of the USD/CAD timeframes for me to want to be trading it.
I don’t just place trades on the Daily, I place a fair bit of intraday, favouring the Hourly, but when there is no clear picture on the Daily then I am inclined to stay out on all timeframes. So I am monitoring this pair at the moment, I do like it, but am not trading it until the picture clears up a little.
That’s probably because USD/CAD was moving sideways for the past couple of months. Well, from what I’ve noticed, this pair does have a tendency to range. Still, I have a bit of downside bias on this pair because of rising crude oil prices. Let’s see how it goes for this week!
Absolutely, I am expecting a little more downside on this pair, myself, just with the recent higher lows on the Daily it is not something I would trade. If I don’t have technical support for my opinion (and at the end of the day, fundamental analysis is just opinion, otherwise everyone would have seen the recession coming…) then I won’t trade it.
What’s up, everyone? Planning to take any Loonie trades today?
As for me, I’m currently looking at the rising channel on USD/CAD’s 4-hour time frame because the bottom held yesterday. I thought it was gonna break because of all that US dollar selling when Fitch gave them a warning about their debt ceiling!
I guess it’s probably because traders are also reluctant to buy the Canadian dollar since Canada just printed a weak retail sales report yesterday.
In terms of techs, there’s a bit of bullish divergence. Stochastics already crossed but haven’t really climbed out of the oversold zone just yet, so it might be safer to wait for that. There’s also a doji and a spinning top right at the bottom of the channel.
What do you guys think?
If I were to go long (maybe during the US session?), I will aim for the top of the channel around .9900 to .9950. My stop should be below the channel and the .9700 handle.
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Anyone with me on this or is my analysis off?
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Again, don’t be afraid to share your thoughts!
…Just dropping off here to say Thanks for making me note this pair.
Used to trade USDCAD but rarely make money off it like other comdolls so i abandoned it.
But this looks really good.
The channel is being re-tested now and if it holds then it’l be a nice double bottom on the one hour time frame, a close above that should be a comfortable place to enter with good enough Risk-Reward ratio.
And if you used that low test off the Hourly chart as your entry (0900-1000 GMT) then you could have a Stop of around 35 pips, below the 0.9700 level you mentioned, so it would be a very good R:R. I didn’t take it, was not at the screen, but had I taken it that is maybe how I would have traded it. Looks a good setup, would prefer a clearer picture on the Daily but can’t have everything I guess! Looking at at it now, though, Price is bumping its head on the Daily Pivot, so that is something I would keep an eye on. I have a Resistance line on my Daily chart at around 0.9820, so would be a little more conservartive with my TP than you were suggesting, or at least trail up my Stop if Price approached that level.
I went long on this at .9715 towrds the end of the Fed announcement. I noticed the dollar was up basically across the board and figured it was a good time. Then I woke up this morning at 7am to see oil had dropped $3!! and knew I had to check my charts. Sure enough it was already at .9800 so I’m up 85pips and loving it!! thank you all for your insight, it reassured me that I was on to something.
I had my TP at 100 pips so it was triggered at .9815. after that I figured “100 pips in one day, I’m done!”. I’ve been busy since but will look at it tonight and see what the stoch/time frames say as well as any fundamentals for Friday. I’ve only been doing this with live money for 2 months so when I hit something like 100 pips I feel successful enough. I need to learn more about when to add to my position or when to pull half and extend my TP.
Oh hey, don’t get me wrong, 100 pips in a day is hella awesome for newbies and seasoned traders alike! Even I would give anything to grab a hundred pips in a single day. Good thing this USD/CAD trade worked great for the both of us!
I hope you enjoy your learning process. It’s definitely gonna be challenging but that’s what your fellow traders are here for. As for me, I’m more than willing to guide you through it, so stick around and let’s learn from each other
Thanks Happypips, you can guide me through as much as you would like. Right now I’m working on recognizing harmonic patterns, trying to overcome that hurddle.
I felt like the setup on this last trade was a no brainer, really nice support and price was in that area, the fed announcement was the fundamental that was going to move it one way or the other, the oil issue was clearly the icing on the cake. I expected the trade to possibly go into Monday, but that 'gift" by the IEA was what sped up the process in my opinion. They don’t get much easier. Too bad they’re all not like that!
It looks like the pair is in the middle of the channel (on the 4h timeframe) but the .9785 is the 61.8% Fib, which could be a nice bounce off point. Stochastic almost in the oversold too, which is good for your trade. If I’m not mistaken, that’s also the bottom weekly ATR for this week and that level USUALLY holds.
In short, from a technical standpoint, your trade looks pretty solid. Plus your stop’s nicely placed, too! Hopefully news from Greece doesn’t cause any wild moves. Good luck on your trade!
You also have a bounce off the 21ema on the Daily chart in your favour, which chimes with the recent (albeit rather choppy) rising trendline on there.
I missed a setup earlier in the week, I would have shorted following Monday’s high test off the 200ema/horizontal Resistance level - my TP would have been… 97.85! So via different routes we have both seen that as a level where Price might rise again.
Well the positive CPI reports probably were responsible for killing my trade today as it dropped 40 pips in a matter of seconds blowing out my stop. Well into the books and on to the next trade!
