New Year - New Trend?

[ZT Strategy]

Hi fellow Swissie traders

I have been establishing a long position trade on USD/CHF over the last month.

I admit I was sweating it as the price ground lower and lower until New Years Eve but its looking better now. I was stopped out of a portion of my position but now been able to take some profits back on the rebound.

My feeling is that this trade has relatively low downside with good upside potential. If we start to get some decent upside momentum I will be looking to actively buy the dips and increase my leverage.

Anyone else agree with my analysis or got any alternative thoughts?

[ZT Strategy]

By way of additional information I have attached the monthly chart showing the major downtrend starting in October 2000 (over 10 years ago).

According to the chart the downtrend is still intact but the MACD is showing each successive dip down has less momentum than the previous dip. I am expecting a rise from here to test the downtrend line at somewhere around 1.05. If this line holds then further record lows are possible. If this line is broken then a genuine new uptrend may occur.

[blogie]

A friend of mine recently told me that it is always better to trade in US dollar. I told him that it is not advisable because nowadays the value of US dollar is showing a downward trend. He told me that it is only a temporary recession and that everything will be okay by 2013.But I personally feel that at the moment it is better to trade in Euro. It is the only currency that is stable at the moment.

[Boola]

I think the USDCHF will hit at least 0.9340 to form a triple bottom. After that we will se where it is headed. Maybe you could go for a swing position from there and gain a huge amount of pips.

If it breaks the 0.9300 we will probably see a rally downwards, if it bounces we will perhaps see a huge rally upwards. So let's wait for confirmation and see where it's headed probably next week.

[ZT Strategy]

Hi Boola

I agree. The important thing now is where this retracement will stop. I would prefer a new higher low somewhere above 0.9330. If we go below 0.93 I will not be looking to establish any new long positions for the time being.

Fundamentally it seems to me that the US economy is improving slowly whereas I wonder if the Swiss economy might start to slow down a bit. Also there are potential risk concerns across the middle east.

[ZT Strategy]

Big move down to make new record lows. At the moment the price seems comfortable below 0.93 and I have to say that the short trend has now firmly re-established itself.

For my trading I may try some scalping trades when the price looks over-extended interday but will not be entering any new long position trades until the price gets back up to at least 0.95.

[Boola]

I have opened a sell position yesterday evening and i have my stop just at 0.9330. Hope the downtrend continuos down a while. Are you in the trade ZT?

[ZT Strategy]

Hi Boola, no can't bring myself to go short just yet. I do agree with your direction though and everything we're seeing since we made a new low supports the sell trade. I am going to wait out the current decline out before deciding if I could go short.

I tried to get some pips by going long on a retracement after we first made through 0.93 but it didn't work.