Tight Spot

[capper]

I neglected to mention in my last post that I chose to open several small trades and staggered them, rather than a small number of large trades. I have about 7.0 lots of USD/JPY and my largest trade is 0.50. I have several 0.25 and in between. Same with my CAD/JPY (where I have less than 4.0 total). I have one 0.80 and the rest are 0.50 or smaller.

Once again, my belief is that both the USD and CAD will gain a lot against the JPY as it has in previous months / years. Could drop and be stagnant for a while but it will likely rise as it always has in the past.

[Master Tang]

The second mistake I made was listening to a lot of people on this forum, cutting my losses, and moving on.




Now, do you think I'm on the right track?

Those two statements are rather contradictory in nature.

As for whether or not you are on the right track, downsizing your lot sizes has my vote as the smartest thing you've done.

This is not a sprint, it's a marathon.

Small gains THAT ARE BANKED are the backbone of any growing account.

ALWAYS be taking profit when it's given, You might wait two more years for the dollar to come back against the yen. Are you going to hold a trade that entire time hoping? Or are you going to let go of a bit of stubbornness to prove yourself right, and take what the market gives EITHER DIRECTION?

Point being, don't get stuck in a mindset of thinking something will happen, that may not happen for a while. No sense tying up your capital like that. When an instrument trends, you can still make money either way, and actually make more than just a long term one way trip.

And when it starts up, you'll still be footloose enough to hop on, and take the ride without incurring a constant drawdown on swap fees.

All the best!

[capper]

Point well made about the contradiction. I was in a bind and I took the advice out of frustration rather than sitting back and relaxing for a bit first. That relax time may have allowed me to save myself on those trades. Anyway, I think the type of money and the type of trades I am doing this time are far different from the ones most people discuss on this forum. Not too many people go into a trade thinking in such long terms as I am with these trades. If they did, they wouldn't be spending so much time discussing them I suppose.

ALWAYS be taking profit when it's given, You might wait two more years for the dollar to come back against the yen. Are you going to hold a trade that entire time hoping? Or are you going to let go of a bit of stubbornness to prove yourself right, and take what the market gives EITHER DIRECTION?

I disagree with that statement in this particular situation. The USD in particular recently hit its lowest level against the Yen since 1995 (and it still hasn't broken 80 this time yet, as it did in 1995). If you look at the charts, and if you study the movement of the USD/YEN pair over the past few month and years, I think you'd be hardpressed to find a very long period, especially a 2-year period where you didn't see some major movement. I'm not saying it's impossible, but very unlikely that the USD will drop below the high 70s and not return for a couple to several years. In recent years, the pair has spent an awful lot more of its time in the 90+ zone than lower. As for the CAD/YEN pairing, it has potential to drop much lower than the USD has against the yen. On the other hand, the Canadian economy is more stable and seems to be going in the opposite direction from Japan's economy. I have lived in Japan for years and I am a Canadian (who has also lived in the U.S., not that that really means too much in this FX game but it at least has given me a feel for things in all the countries concerned).

With the trades I have in place now, USD/JPY (7.0 lots) and CAD/JPY (3.85 lots), I am bound to see some serious $$ swings. I was up over $20,000 yesterday but closed the week just under $12,000. It's easy to close trades and take profits. It's much harder to sit and watch your profits disappear. As I said before, I see the US and Can. dollars reaching 90+ territory in the coming months and I see no reason to pull out in the mid-high 80s before I reach my targets. If I do that, I may have to wait a long long time before I ever have the confidence to enter new trades with those pairings.

I believe that there's a better chance we'll see the USD and CAD hit 100 or 110+ against the JPY before it ever drops to 78 or lower. If I'm wrong, a drop in those pairs would put me in a waiting game. If I'm right, it would put me in a great situation financially.

I also have the benefit of having trades with 2 pairings that have been running quite parallel to one another. I have the option of pulling completely out of one pair or taking some profits and leaving other trades longer.

I appreciate your feedback / discussion as always...

[Master Tang]

I was up over $20,000 yesterday but closed the week just under $12,000. It's easy to close trades and take profits. It's much harder to sit and watch your profits disappear.

That is an interesting statement.

At the end of the day, your trades are YOUR trades, and yours alone.

I like a growing account that has an increasing liquid balance. Profits aren't that until they are booked.

I would loath giving 8k back to the market. But to each his own

All the varying views are what makes the market the market

Cheers!