AceTraderForex Apr 29: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
8

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 Aug 2014 23:48GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
102.15

55 HR EMA
102.12

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
62

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Marginal rise b4 retreat

Resistance
102.93 - Last Tue’s high
102.46 - Last Thur’s high
102.34 - Aug 01 low

Support
101.78 Last Wed’s low
101.51 - Last Fri’s low
101.32 - Jul 23 low

. USD/JPY - 102.23 … Despite dlr’s gap-up opening to 102.22 in New Zealand on Monday following last Fri’s rally fm a 2-week low of 101.51, the pair then traded narrowly below there in Asia n retreated briefly to 102.02 in European morning b4 edging high in New York, price climbed to 102.26 in Australia.

. Looking at the bigger picture, despite the 3-legged rise fm May’s 100.81 trough to 103.15 twd end of July, subsequent cross-inspired selloff to 101.51 signals aforesaid upmove has indeed made a top there. As mentioned in previous updates, dlr’s MT choppy sideways move inside the established broad 105.45-100.76 range is expected to continue n the decline fm 103.15 adds credence to this view n as long as 102.46 res (last Thur’s high) holds, consolidation with initial downside bias wud be seen n below 101.51 wud bring another drop twd 101.26 (being 80.9% r of 100.81-103.15), however, only a firm breach of 100.76/81 sup area wud bring stronger correction of the LT uptrend fm 79.75-105.45 (however, this is not an anticipated scenario).

. Today, in view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day rise in anticipation of a subsequent fall is favoured. Abv 102.46 wud defer n risk 102.93 res.

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9

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY [/B]- 104.11

Update Time: [B]25 Aug 2014[/B] [I] 07:58 GMT[/I]

The greenback’s rise above April’s peak at 104.13 last Friday and then to a fresh multi-month peak at 104.19 in New Zealand today signals an upside break of the 7-1/2 month broad sideways move from 105.45 9Jan) has taken place and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain 104.77, however, near term loss of momentum should cap price below said res today and yield minor correction later.

On the downside, only below 103.50 would indicate a temporary top has been formed instead and shift risk to the downside for a retracement to 103.15.

11

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 27 Aug 2014 23:56GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Overbought

21 HR EMA
103.92

55 HR EMA
103.94

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation n4 marginal rise

Resistance
104.88 - 1.618 times ext. of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51
104.49 - Mon’s NZ high (Reuters)
104.17 - Tue’s NY high

Support
103.75 - Mon’s low
103.50 - Last Fri’s low
103.15 - Jul’s high (30)

. USD/JPY - 103.90… The greenback remained under pressure y’day after
meeting renewed selling just below Tue’s 104.17 high at Tokyo open, price then
ratcheted lower to 103.79 in NY morning n rebounding to 104.00.

. Dlr’s sideways move after rising to a 7-month peak of 104.49 Mon suggests
further choppy trading below this res wud continue, however, as long as near
term pivotal sup at 103.50 (last Fri’s low) holds, recent erratic upmove fm
this year’s low at 100.76 (Feb) shud resume after consolidation n abv 104.17 wud
add credence to this view n yield re-test of aforesaid top, abv wud encourage
for further gain twd 104.88 (1.618 times extension of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51)
later. Looking ahead, as early breach of Apr’s 104.13 high signals an ‘upside
break’ of the 7-month long broad sideways consolidation fm Jan’s 5-year peak at
105.45 has taken place, price is en route to re-test said 2014 high at 105.45,
abv there wud encourage for gain twd the minimum triangle breakout obj. at
107.31 in late Sep. On the downside, below 103.50 risks retrace. to 103.15.

. Today, we’re holding a long position in anticipation of marginal gain abv
104.49 but ‘bearish divergences’ on hourly oscillators wud cap price at 104.88.

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12

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 10 Sep 2014 00:02GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
106.17

55 HR EMA
105.87

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
50

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise

Resistance
106.96 - 2.618 times ext. of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51
106.61 - 50% proj. of 93.75-105.45 fm 100.76
106.47 - Y’day’s fresh near 6-year high

Support
105.95 - Y’day’s low (AUS)
105.71 - Last Fri’s high, now sup
105.23 - Mon’s Asian high

. USD/JPY - 106.14 … The greenback maintained a firm undertone on Tue n rose to 106.39 in European morning, then later to a fresh 6-year high of 106.49 in NY due to dollar’s broad-based strength but weakness in the U.S. stocks triggered profit-taking in the dlr, knocking the pair to 106.04 near NY close.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr’s early rally abv Jan’s 105.45 peak to 106.47 y’day signals the LT uptrend fm record low at 75.32 (Nov 2011’) remains in force n marginal gain to 106.61 (being 50% projection of the intermediate rise fm 93.75-105.45 proj. fm 100.76) is likely after minor consolidation, however, as hourly technical indicators’ readings have already displayed ‘bearish divergences’, reckon 107.06 (being 50% projection of 77.13-103.74 measured fm 96.73) wud hold on 1st testing n yield a ‘much-needed’ minor correction. On the downside, only below last Fri’s 104.69 low signals temp. top is in place.

. Today, expect initial consolidation with mild downside bias b4 prospect of marginal rise. So buying on dips is still favoured n only below 105.71 (last Fri’s high, now sup) confirms a temporary top is made n may risk a stronger retracement twd 105.23 but pivotal sup at 104.69 is expected to remain intact.

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13

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Sep 2014 23:53GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
107.25

55 HR EMA
107.04

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
57

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 marginal rise

Resistance
108.04 - Sep 19 2008 high
107.81 - 50% proj. of 106.04-107.40 fm 107.13
107.40 - Last Fri’s high

Support
107.09 - Last Fri’s European low
106.64 - Last Thur’s Asian low
106.04 - Last Wed’s low

. USD/JPY - 107.35 … The pair continued its recent winning streak last week as gain in the Nikkei as well as upbeat U.S. data boosted risk sentiment, dlr gained for 5 consecutive days n rose to a fresh 6-year high of 107.40 Fri.

. Looking at bigger picture 1st, dlr’s early rally abv Jan’s 105.45 peak to as high as 107.40 Fri suggests the LT uptrend fm record low at 75.32 (Nov 2011) remains in progress n further headway to next daily chart obj. at 108.04 (Sep high in 2008) is now envisaged after minor consolidation, however, as the hourly oscillators’ readings wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, strg gain abv there may not be seen n reckon 108.99, being 2-times extension of MT intermediate rise fm 103.56-105.71 measured fm 104.69, wud cap upside this week n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place later. On the downside, a daily close below 106.64 (last Thur’s low) wud be the 1st signal temporary top is in place n yield stronger retracement twd 106.04.

. Today, dlr’s brief retreat to 107.16 at NZ open (Japan’s market is closed) has increased risk of a minor retracement, however, 106.64/65 sup shud hold fm here. Abv 107.40 wud extend to 107.70/80 b4 prospect of a minor correction.

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14

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Sep 2014 23:55GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
108.63

55 HR EMA
108.18

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
66

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
110.67 - Aug 15 2008 high
109.52 - 2 times ext. of 101.51-104.49 fm 103.56
109.08 - Sep 08 2008 high

Support
108.50 - Thur’s European low
108.14 - 38.2% r of 106.81-108.96
107.88 - 50% of 106.81-108.96

. USD/JPY - 108.82 … The greenback maintained a firm undertone on Thur following Wed’s rally due to broad-based gain in global stocks. Dlr rose to a fresh 6-year peak of 108.96 in New York after weekly U.S. jobless claims came in lower than market forecast, however, offers at 109.00 capped intra-day gain.

. Dlr’s firmness after rallying to 108.96 suggests the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Nov) wud resume after consolidation n marginal gain abv next daily chart obj. at 109.08 (Sep 08 2008 high) is now envisaged, however,high readings on daily oscillators n ‘bearish divergences’ on hourly indicators shud prevent strg gain abv there n reckon 109.52, being 2 times extension of MT intermediate rise fm 101.51-104.49 measured fm 103.56, shud cap upside n yield a long-overdue minor correction. Looking ahead, dlr is en route to 2008 peak at 110.67. On the downside, only a daily close below 107.40 wud signal a temporary top is in place n risk stronger retrace. to 106.81 sup.

. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr again on dips in anticipation of further rise is the way to go as only below 108.00 wud confirm a temporary is in place n risks stronger retracement twd 107.40 next week.

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15

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Sep 2014 23:58GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
108.90

55 HR EMA
108.81

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
74

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 uptrend resumes

Resistance
110.67 - 2008 peak (AUG)
109.90 - 61.8% proj. of 106.81-109.46 fm 108.26
109.46 - Last Fri’s fresh 6-year high

Support
108.46 - Y’day’s low
108.26 - Tue’s low
108.14 - 50% r of 106.81-109.46

. USD/JPY - 109.27 … Despite dlr’s brief but sharp drop to 108.46 ahead of of Tokyo open on Wed due to Japan PM Abe’s comment on weak yen, dlr rebounded to 108.78 in Asia on recovery in The Nikkei. The pair continued its intra-day gain n climbed to 109.15 near NY close due to dlr’s broad-based strength.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y’day’s rebound n intra-day breach
of res at 109.19/20 suggests the correction fm last Fri’s fresh 6-year peak at
109.46 has ended at 108.26 on Tue n upside bias remains for re-test of 109.46, abv wud confirm the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Nov) has once again resumed n yield gain to daily obj. at 109.70, however, as hourly oscillators wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, reckon 109.90/110.00 wud cap upside, this is 61.8% proj. of 106.81-109.46 measured fm 108.26 n ‘psychological’ lvl respectively. On the downside, only below 108.26 wud defer bullishness on dlr.

. Today, as dlr has maintained a firm undertone after penetrating 109.19/20 res ahead of Tokyo open, buying on dips in anticipation of a resumption of said uptrend is favoured n only below 108.65/70 wud dampen bullish scenario, however, this week’s low at 108.26 shud remain intact.

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16

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Oct 2014 00:20GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Easing fm o/bot

21 HR EMA
108.58

55 HR EMA
108.91

Trend Hourly Chart
Nr term down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/sold

13 HR RSI
52

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
109.69 - Prev. sup, now res
109.12 - Y’day’s high in Aust.
108.89 - Y’day’s NY morning res

Support
108.01 - Y’day’s low
107.60 - 1.23 times extn of 110.09-108.87 fm 109.12
107.40 - Sep 12 high, now sup

. USD/JPY - 108.68 … Dlr found renewed selling at 109.12 in Aust. on Thur n easily penetrated Wed’s NY low at 108.87 in Asia due to tumble in N225, price ratcheted lower in Europe n fell to 108.01 in NY midday b4 short-covering lifted price in NY afternoon. Dlr rebounded to 108.73 shortly after Fri’s Tokyo open.

. Y’day’s breach of 108.26 (Sep 23 low) to 108.01 signals LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Nov) has indeed made a temporary top at Wed’s fresh 6-year peak at 110.09 n although subsequent intra-day rebound indicates initial choppy trading wud be seen in Asia, reckon 109.05, the ‘natural’ 50% r of 110.09-108.01 , wud cap upside n bearishness remains for another corrective fall to take place later. Having said that, as ‘bullish converging signals’ wud appear on hourly oscillators on next decline, sharp move below 108.01 is not likely today n price shud hold abv 107.60, this is the 1.23 times extension of 110.09-108.87 measured fm 109.12, n yield strg rebound.

. Today, whilst selling dlr on intra-day recovery is recommended, one may look to buy next decline to 107.85 n take profit on subsequent rebound. On the upside, only abv 109.30 (61.8% r fm 110.09) indicates correction over, 109.69.

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17

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

07 Oct 2014[/B] [I]01:34GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Reuters news quoting BOJ GOV Kuroda who is speaking before the parliament and says, quote:

recent export moves lacking momentum;
exports likely to improve moderately as overseas growth picks up;
tankan showed CAPEX plans are pretty firm;
positive cycle of households, companies using their income for spending is in place;
effect of sales tax hike on economy being prolonged, bad weather also affecting economy;
weak yen is generally positive for Japan’s economy if it reflects economic, market fundamentals;
in general, weak yen has some positive effects on exports, Japan firms operating overseas;
weak yen also pushes down earnings of non-manufacturers by pushing up import costs.

Kuroda continues n says BOJ ready to adjust policy if needed, which means we will ease policy if economic, price outlook undershoots our forecasts; economy on steady track to meet 2% inflation goal; receny yen weakness due to diverging monetary policies between Japan, U.S. n Europe; yen weakness up until now has not been a problem for Japan’s economy; important for public finances to be sustainable; appreciate govt’s effort to tackle fiscal reforms.

[I]01:12GMT [/I] Japan’s GPIF now aims to decide portfolio overhaul between mid-Nov n mid-Dec, source.
Japan’s Chief Govt. Spokesman says “had expected weak yen to boost exports but now moving sideways”.
This morning BOJ Governor Kuroda to appear in parliament from around 01:20GMT - parliamentary source.
BOJ board meeting to recess for about 1-2 hours during time GOV Kuroda appears in parliament.

Last night, the greenback tumbled to as low as 108.65 due to active long liquidation in thin U.S. trading. Offers are tipped at 109.00-10 n more at 109.30. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is located at 108.50.

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales.

18

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Oct 2014 23:55GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
107.89

55 HR EMA
108.10

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
109.23 - Tue’s Asian high
108.75 - Wed’s NY high
108.32 - Y’day’s Asian high

Support
107.53 - Y’day’s low
107.40 - 12 Sep high, now sup
106.81 - 16 Sep low

. USD/JPY - 107.84 … Although dlr came under renewed selling pressure at Tokyo open on Thur n ratcheted lower below previous day’s low at 107.76 to a 3-week trough of 107.53 ahead of NY open due to renewed weakness in the Nikkei future, dlr’s broad-based rally in NY later lifted price to 108.18.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, yesterday’s weakness after penetrating Wed’s low at 107.76 to 107.53 suggests as long as 108.75 res (Wed’s high) holds, decline fm Oct’s fresh 6-year peak of 110.09 to retrace MT uptrend wud resume n extend initial weakness to 107.40/39 (Sep 12 high n 50% r of 104.69-110.09 respectively) after consolidation, however, ‘bullish converging signals’ on hourly oscillators shud prevent steep fall n price shud hold well abv previous daily sup at 106.81 (Sep 16 low) n yield a much-needed rebound early next week.

. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipation of further fall is still favoured n one may turn long on dips twd 107.00 for subsequent rebound. On the upside, only abv 108.75 confirms 1st leg of correction is over n risks stronger gain twd chart obj. at 109.23.

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19

[B]DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK[/B]
Last Update At [B]30 Oct 2014[/B] [I]00:04GMT[/I]

[B]Trend Daily Chart [/B]
Sideways

[B]Daily Indicators [/B]
Neutral

[B]21 HR EMA [/B]
108.46

[B]55 HR EMA[/B]
108.21

[B]Trend Hourly Chart[/B]
Up

[B]Hourly Indicators [/B]
Easing fm o/bot

[B]13 HR RSI [/B]
79

[B]14 HR DMI[/B]
+ve

[B]Daily Analysis[/B]
Resumption of recent up move

[B]Resistance [/B]
109.91 - Oct’s 4
109.23 - Oct’s 7 high
108.96 - Y’day’s high

[B]Support[/B]
108.37 - Mon’s high
107.95 - Y’day’s low
107.61 - Mon’s low

. [B]USD/JPY[/B] - 108.86 … Despite dlr’s brief retreat to 107.95 in Europe on Wed, the greenback jumped after FOMC rate decision n ended its 6-year long QE program. The pair rallied to as high as 108.96 on dlr’s broad-based strength.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y’day’s resumption of upmove fm Oct’s low at 105.20 confirms early corrective fall fm Oct’s 6-year peak at 110.09 has ended there n as hourly indicators are rising n current price is trading well abv 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 109.23 n then twds 109.48 res, however, hourly oscillators’ readings wud be in o/bot territory, this shud prevent strg gain today n res area at 109.91-110.09 shud hold on 1st testing n yield a much-needed retreat later. Looking ahead, a daily close abv 110.09 res wud confirm the LT uptrend fm record low at 75.32 (Oct 2011) has once again resumed n yield further gain to 110.50 (being 61.8% proj. of 101.51-110.09 measured fm 105.20).

. Today, buying dlr again on dips is still the way to go. On the downside, only a breach of y’day’s low at 107.95 wud signal a temporary top is made n risk stronger pullback to 107.61 sup.

20

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 02 Nov 2014 23:51GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
111.85

55 HR EMA
110.55

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
O/bot

13 HR RSI
80

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of uptrend

Resistance
113.54 - 50% proj. of 109.13-112.47 fm 111.89
113.16 - 2.618 times ext. of 106.25-108.37 fm 107.61
113.01 - Intra-day fresh high in NZ/AUS

Support
112.47 - Fri’s high, now sup
111.89 - Reaction low fm 112.47
111.46 - Minor sup fm hourly chart

. USD/JPY - 112.87… The greenback maintained a steady tone initially last week as steady gains in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment of yen selling. Dlr jumped on Fri when BoJ surprised the market with its aggressive stimulus measures, price jumped abv Oct’s 110.09 high to a near 7-year peak of 112.47 in NY.

. Let’s look at the bigger picture 1st, Fri’s rally to 112.47 confirms the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has once again resumed n price is en route to 114.92, this is 50% proj. of intermediate rise of 77.13-105.45 measured fm 100.76, however, as daily technical indicators have displayed ‘bearish divergences’ reckon 115.83, being 50% proj. of the entire said uptrend fm 75.32-105.45 measured fm 100.76, wud cap upside n yield correction later. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is recommended but profit shud be taken on subsequent rise. On the downside, below 110.09 (previous res, now sup) anytime wud signal temporary is in place n risk stronger retracement to 108.80/90.

. Today, dlr gapped higher to a fresh near 7-year peak of 113.01 in NZ/AUS , however, as hourly indicators’ readings are in o/bot territory, reckon 113.54 wud cap upside. Look to buy on dips as sup at 11.89 shud hold fm here.

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21

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 13 Nov 2014 00:29GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
115.47

55 HR EMA
115.33

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
51

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
117.09 - Equality proj. of 113.86-116.10 fm 114.85
116.42 - 61.8% proj. of 113.86-116.10 fm 114.85
116.10 - Tue’s fresh 7-year high

Support
114.85 - Y’day’s low
114.64 - Y’day’s low
114.26 - Last Fri’s low

. USD/JPY - 115.28 …The greenback continued to take centre stage in Asia n swung wildly in Wed’s session. Despite extending rebound fm Tue’s 115.04 low to as high as 116.01 in Aust., price briefly dropped to 115.25 b4 bouncing back to 115.88 but only to ratchet lower to 114.85 in NY. Price later rose to 115.74.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite dlr’s erratic fall fm Tue’s fresh 7-year peak at 116.10 to 114.85 y’day, subsequent strg bounce in later NY trade suggests choppy consolidation with upside bias remains, however, abv 116.10 needed to extend the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 twd 116.42, this is 61.8% proj. of the near term rise 113.86-116.10 measured fm 115.04. Having said that, as hourly indicators’ readings wud display prominent ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, upside shud falter well below 117.00 n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to occur. Failure to penetrate 115.88 (y’day’s high in Tokyo) n a drop below 115.00/04 suggests choppy trading below 116.10 top wud continue, then stronger retracement to 114.64, n later 114.26 wud be seen.

. Today, in view of nr term upside risk, we have exited previous short position with a small loss n may sell dlr on recovery if price drops below 115.00.

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22

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Dec 2014 23:27GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
118.38

55 HR EMA
118.33

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidatoin with downside bias

Resistance
119.15 - Y’day’s fresh 7-year peak
118.98 - Prev. high on Nov 20
118.53 - Hourly chart

Support
117.87 - Y’day’s low
117.24 - Last Thur’s low
116.51 - 50% of the intermediate rise of 113.86-119.15

. USD/JPY - 118.30… Although dlr briefly jumped to a fresh 7-year peak at 119.15 in early Europe after Moody’s downgraded Japan’s rating to A1, price swiftly nose-dived to 118.09 on long-liquidation. Later, dlr fell to 117.87 in NY morning b4 recovering after upbeat ISM U.S. manf. PMI, d;r climbed to 118.41.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y’day’s aforesaid sharp decline after a brief breach of Nov’s peak at 118.98 to 119.15 suggests LT up move fm record low at 75.32 (Oct 2011) has made a temporary top n a few days of choppy trading below this res wud be seen, a breach of 117.68/74 (hourly chart n 38.2% r of intermediate rise of 115.46-119.15) wud add credence to this view n yield stronger retracement twd 117.24/31, being last Thur’s low n the ‘natural’ 50.0% of aforesaid upmove, however, reckon 116.51, being 50% r of intermediate rise of 113.86-119.15, wud hold n bring rebound later this week.

. Today, as long as 119.15 top holds, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of another corrective fall twd 117.50 is favoured. Only a firm rise abv 119.15 wud revive early bullishness n extend gain to 119.35/40 n then later twd 119.80, this is 50% proj. of 113.86-118.98 measured fm 117.24.

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23

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Dec 2014 23:40GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
121.10

55 HR EMA
120.42

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm

13 HR RSI
76

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 uptrend resumes

Resistance
122.87 - 2 times ext. of 113.86-118.98 fm 117.24
122.36 - 100% proj. of 113.86-118.98 fm 117.24
121.85 - Intra-day high (Aust.)

Support
120.28 - Hourly chart
120.69 - Last Fri’s Euroepan morning high
120.25 - Last Thur’s high

. USD/JPY - 121.71…Dollar rose above Nov’s 118.98 peak to a fresh 7-year high of 119.15 after Moody’s cut Japan’s credit rating last Mon, profit-taking quickly knocked price to 117.87 but buyers emerged n price climbed steadily for next 4 consecutive days n rallied to 121.69 after robust U.S. payrolls data Fri.

. Looking at the bigger picture, last week’s close abv key ‘psychological’ 120.00 bodes well for the greenback to continue its LT ascent fm 2011 record low at 75.32 to 122.36, this is equality projection of intermediate rise fm 113.86-118.98 measured fm 117.24, then twd 124.06/124.14 (2.618 extension of 96.55-105.45 fm 100.76 n 2007 peak in Jun respectively), however, as both hourly n daily technical indicators’ reading wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, risk is seen for a long-overdue correction to take place later this week. On the downside, a daily close below 120.00 wud signal a temporary top is in place n yield subsequent retracement to 119.33.

. Today, as price has risen abv Fri’s 121.69 to 121.85 in Australia, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, expected o/bot readings on next upmove shud cap price at 122.36 n yield pullback.

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DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Jan 2015 00:01GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
118.81

55 HR EMA
118.28

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
45

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
120.43 - Hourly chart
119.82 - Last Fri’s low (now res)
119.39 - Y’day European high

Support
118.04 - Y’day’s fresh 3-week low
117.58 - 61.8% r of 115.57-120.83
117.05 - Hourly chart sup

. USD/JPY - 118.66… Dlr remained under pressure in Asia on decline in the Nikkei, price weakened to 118.66 on broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion. Despite a short-covering rebound to 119.39 ahead of NY open, renewed selling emerged n knocked pirce sharply lower to 118.04 in NY b4 recovering.

. Looking at bigger picture, as mentioned previously, although dlr’s early strg rise fm 115.57 to 120.83 signals correction fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at
121.85 has ended, y’day’s selloff below last Tue’s low at 118.87 to a fresh 3-week trough at 118.04 has retained our early view that price is not ready to resume LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 n further ‘choppy’ trading below 121.85 wud continue. Below 118.04 anytime wud extend weakness to 117.58, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of 115.57-120.83, however, as hourly oscillators wud be in o/sold territory on such a move, reckon sup at 117.05 wud hold n yield rebound.

. Today, as price is currently trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains n selling the greenback on intra-day recovery is recommended. On the upside, only a daily close abv 119.39 wud indicate a low has been made n yield gain to 119.79/82 n then 120.30/40.

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25

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jan 2015 23:52GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
118.28

55 HR EMA
118.13

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
64

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
119.96 - Jan 8 high
119.32 - Last Mon’s high
118.87 - Last Tue’s high

Support
118.08 - Hourly chart
117.83 - Y’day’s Asian moring high, now sup
117.18 - Last Wed’s low

. USD/JPY - 118.56… Although active cross-buying in yen pressured dlr to 117.27 ahead of Asian open on Mon, renewed weakness in yen vs other currencies lifted price n dlr rallied to 118.48 in NY morning. Later, dlr briefly retreated to 118.13 n then climbed to session high of 118.50 at NY close.

. Let’s look at the bigger picture, as mentioned in recent update, dlr’s volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 115.57, subsequent bounce to 120.83 marked the b-leg top, then the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom, last week’s rise to 118.87 (Tue) signalled d-leg rise was in progress which shud falter below 120.83 n yield an e-leg fall in Feb. On the downside, only below key sup at 115.57 wud invalidate abv triangle scenario n yield correction of the LT uptrend fm 75.32 (2011 record low) to 114.55 n possibly twd 113.52 next month.

. Today, dlr’s strg rebound fm said y’day’s low at 117.27 suggests as long as minor sup at 118.08 hold, intra-day upside bias remains for gain twd 118.87 res, break there wud confirm abovementioned triangle d-leg upmove has resumed n shud yield gain to 119.32/37. Therefore, buying dlr again on dips is favoured.

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26

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Feb 2015 23:54GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
117.52

55 HR EMA
117.74

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
38

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue

Resistance
118.50 - Last Thur’s high
118.12 - Hourly chart
117.66 - Hourly chart

Support
116.69 - Intra-day low in NZ (Reuters)
116.32 - Jan 16 European low
115.85 - Jan 16 low

. USD/JPY - 117.16… The greenback swung wildly last week inside previous broad range of 118.87-117.48. Dlr staged a strg bounce fm 117.27 (Mon) to 118.66 Tue but only to fall back to 117.27 Wed. Despite a rebound to 118.50 Thur, price fell to 117.30 in NY Fri, then gapped lower to 116.69 at NZ open today.

. Looking at the bigger picture, we’ve taken recent view dlr’s volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom. Then dlr’s subsequent strg bounce to 118.87 was the 3-legged d-leg upmove. Despite today’s weakness to 116.69, reckon downside wud hold well abv 115.85 n bring rebound later this week, however, a daily close abv 118.87 needed to signal an ‘upside break’ of recent broad consolidation has taken place. On the downside, only below key sup at 115.57 wud invalidate abv triangle scenario n yield correction of the LT uptrend fm 75.32 (2011 record low) to 114.55 n possibly twd 113.52 later.

. Today, intra-day buyong of yen on risk aversion following w/end’s downbeat China PMIs may pressure dlr to 116.40/50 b4 prospect of another rebound.

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WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Feb 2015 23:19GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
118.49

55 HR EMA
117.97

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI
69

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent upmove

Resistance
120.42 - 1.236 ext. of 115.85-118.87 fm 116.66
119.96 - Jan 08 high
119.32 - Jan 12 high

Support
118.50 - Jan 29 high (now sup)
118.00 - Last wed’s high (now sup)
117.60 - Last Thur’s high (now sup)

. USD/JPY - 119.01… The pair weakened initially to a 2-week low of 116.66 in the beginning of last week n then gyrated inside a 116.88-118.00 range until Fri when robust U.S. payrolls plus rising U.S. treasury yields sent price rallying sharply abv 118.00 res to a 3-week high of 119.23 in NY session.

. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr’s strg rise to 119.22 on Fri lents credence to our recent broad consolidative view where the volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle, with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom. Last week’s 3 legged rise fm 116.66 could either be the d-leg rebound which shud falter below 120.83 n yield one more e-leg decline or 116.66 may well be the e-led terminus. In either case, trading dlr fm the long side (our weekly strategy is currently holding a long position) is therefore favoured. Abv 120.83 anytime wud signal an ‘upside break’ has occured, then dlr wud head wtd 121.85 later this month.

. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips is the way to go as 118.40/50 wud hold but 119.96 res wud cap upside.

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28

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update 13 Feb 2015 00:00GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
118.34

55 HR EMA
118.46

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
36

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue

Resistance
120.48 - Wed’s fresh 1-month peak
119.88 - Hourly chart
119.62 - Tue’s high

Support
118.51 - Y’day’s low
118.33 - Mon’s low
118.00 - Last Wed’s high (now sup)

. USD/JPY - 118.94… Although dlr staged a bounce fm 119.98 to 120.37 in Asia on Thur, price tumbled to 118.73 in European morning after hawkish comments fm Japan’s central bank. Later, despite a strg recovery to 119.88, price fell further to 118.51 in NY after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. eco. data.

. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr selloff y’day after extending the erratic upmove fm Jan’s low at 115.85 to 120.48 Wed has anchored our recent broad consolidative view where the volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle, with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom n fall fm Wed’s high of 120.48 has marked the terminus of d-leg rise fm last week’s low at 116.66. Current e-leg decline fm 120.48 wud yield weakness to 117.62, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48, but price shud hold abv 117.18 (last Fri’s low) n yield rebound. Looking ahead, only abv 120.83 wud signal an ‘upside break’ has occured, then dlr wud head wud 121.85 later in Feb.

. Today, although we’re holding a long position for a retracement of the fall fm 120.48. Below 118.51 wud risk re-test of this week’s 118.33 (Mon) low.

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