AceTraderForex Apr 29: Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 02 Nov 2014 23:51GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
111.85

55 HR EMA
110.55

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
O/bot

13 HR RSI
80

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of uptrend

Resistance
113.54 - 50% proj. of 109.13-112.47 fm 111.89
113.16 - 2.618 times ext. of 106.25-108.37 fm 107.61
113.01 - Intra-day fresh high in NZ/AUS

Support

112.47 - Fri’s high, now sup
111.89 - Reaction low fm 112.47
111.46 - Minor sup fm hourly chart

. USD/JPY - 112.87… The greenback maintained a steady tone initially last week as steady gains in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment of yen selling. Dlr jumped on Fri when BoJ surprised the market with its aggressive stimulus measures, price jumped abv Oct’s 110.09 high to a near 7-year peak of 112.47 in NY.

. Let’s look at the bigger picture 1st, Fri’s rally to 112.47 confirms the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has once again resumed n price is en route to 114.92, this is 50% proj. of intermediate rise of 77.13-105.45 measured fm 100.76, however, as daily technical indicators have displayed ‘bearish divergences’ reckon 115.83, being 50% proj. of the entire said uptrend fm 75.32-105.45 measured fm 100.76, wud cap upside n yield correction later. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is recommended but profit shud be taken on subsequent rise. On the downside, below 110.09 (previous res, now sup) anytime wud signal temporary is in place n risk stronger retracement to 108.80/90.

. Today, dlr gapped higher to a fresh near 7-year peak of 113.01 in NZ/AUS , however, as hourly indicators’ readings are in o/bot territory, reckon 113.54 wud cap upside. Look to buy on dips as sup at 11.89 shud hold fm here.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 13 Nov 2014 00:29GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
115.47

55 HR EMA
115.33

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI

51

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
117.09 - Equality proj. of 113.86-116.10 fm 114.85
116.42 - 61.8% proj. of 113.86-116.10 fm 114.85
116.10 - Tue’s fresh 7-year high

Support
114.85 - Y’day’s low
114.64 - Y’day’s low
114.26 - Last Fri’s low

. USD/JPY - 115.28 …The greenback continued to take centre stage in Asia n swung wildly in Wed’s session. Despite extending rebound fm Tue’s 115.04 low to as high as 116.01 in Aust., price briefly dropped to 115.25 b4 bouncing back to 115.88 but only to ratchet lower to 114.85 in NY. Price later rose to 115.74.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite dlr’s erratic fall fm Tue’s fresh 7-year peak at 116.10 to 114.85 y’day, subsequent strg bounce in later NY trade suggests choppy consolidation with upside bias remains, however, abv 116.10 needed to extend the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 twd 116.42, this is 61.8% proj. of the near term rise 113.86-116.10 measured fm 115.04. Having said that, as hourly indicators’ readings wud display prominent ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, upside shud falter well below 117.00 n risk has increased for a much-needed correction to occur. Failure to penetrate 115.88 (y’day’s high in Tokyo) n a drop below 115.00/04 suggests choppy trading below 116.10 top wud continue, then stronger retracement to 114.64, n later 114.26 wud be seen.

. Today, in view of nr term upside risk, we have exited previous short position with a small loss n may sell dlr on recovery if price drops below 115.00.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Dec 2014 23:27GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
118.38

55 HR EMA
118.33

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidatoin with downside bias

Resistance
119.15 - Y’day’s fresh 7-year peak
118.98 - Prev. high on Nov 20
118.53 - Hourly chart

Support
117.87 - Y’day’s low
117.24 - Last Thur’s low
116.51 - 50% of the intermediate rise of 113.86-119.15

. USD/JPY - 118.30… Although dlr briefly jumped to a fresh 7-year peak at 119.15 in early Europe after Moody’s downgraded Japan’s rating to A1, price swiftly nose-dived to 118.09 on long-liquidation. Later, dlr fell to 117.87 in NY morning b4 recovering after upbeat ISM U.S. manf. PMI, d;r climbed to 118.41.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y’day’s aforesaid sharp decline after a brief breach of Nov’s peak at 118.98 to 119.15 suggests LT up move fm record low at 75.32 (Oct 2011) has made a temporary top n a few days of choppy trading below this res wud be seen, a breach of 117.68/74 (hourly chart n 38.2% r of intermediate rise of 115.46-119.15) wud add credence to this view n yield stronger retracement twd 117.24/31, being last Thur’s low n the ‘natural’ 50.0% of aforesaid upmove, however, reckon 116.51, being 50% r of intermediate rise of 113.86-119.15, wud hold n bring rebound later this week.

. Today, as long as 119.15 top holds, selling dlr on recovery in anticipation of another corrective fall twd 117.50 is favoured. Only a firm rise abv 119.15 wud revive early bullishness n extend gain to 119.35/40 n then later twd 119.80, this is 50% proj. of 113.86-118.98 measured fm 117.24.

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Dec 2014 23:40GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
121.10

55 HR EMA
120.42

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm

13 HR RSI
76

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 uptrend resumes

Resistance
122.87 - 2 times ext. of 113.86-118.98 fm 117.24
122.36 - 100% proj. of 113.86-118.98 fm 117.24
121.85 - Intra-day high (Aust.)

Support
120.28 - Hourly chart
120.69 - Last Fri’s Euroepan morning high
120.25 - Last Thur’s high

. USD/JPY - 121.71…Dollar rose above Nov’s 118.98 peak to a fresh 7-year high of 119.15 after Moody’s cut Japan’s credit rating last Mon, profit-taking quickly knocked price to 117.87 but buyers emerged n price climbed steadily for next 4 consecutive days n rallied to 121.69 after robust U.S. payrolls data Fri.

. Looking at the bigger picture, last week’s close abv key ‘psychological’ 120.00 bodes well for the greenback to continue its LT ascent fm 2011 record low at 75.32 to 122.36, this is equality projection of intermediate rise fm 113.86-118.98 measured fm 117.24, then twd 124.06/124.14 (2.618 extension of 96.55-105.45 fm 100.76 n 2007 peak in Jun respectively), however, as both hourly n daily technical indicators’ reading wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, risk is seen for a long-overdue correction to take place later this week. On the downside, a daily close below 120.00 wud signal a temporary top is in place n yield subsequent retracement to 119.33.

. Today, as price has risen abv Fri’s 121.69 to 121.85 in Australia, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, expected o/bot readings on next upmove shud cap price at 122.36 n yield pullback.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 07 Jan 2015 00:01GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
118.81

55 HR EMA
118.28

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
45

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
120.43 - Hourly chart
119.82 - Last Fri’s low (now res)
119.39 - Y’day European high

Support
118.04 - Y’day’s fresh 3-week low
117.58 - 61.8% r of 115.57-120.83
117.05 - Hourly chart sup

. USD/JPY - 118.66… Dlr remained under pressure in Asia on decline in the Nikkei, price weakened to 118.66 on broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion. Despite a short-covering rebound to 119.39 ahead of NY open, renewed selling emerged n knocked pirce sharply lower to 118.04 in NY b4 recovering.

. Looking at bigger picture, as mentioned previously, although dlr’s early strg rise fm 115.57 to 120.83 signals correction fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at
121.85 has ended, y’day’s selloff below last Tue’s low at 118.87 to a fresh 3-week trough at 118.04 has retained our early view that price is not ready to resume LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 n further ‘choppy’ trading below 121.85 wud continue. Below 118.04 anytime wud extend weakness to 117.58, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of 115.57-120.83, however, as hourly oscillators wud be in o/sold territory on such a move, reckon sup at 117.05 wud hold n yield rebound.

. Today, as price is currently trading below both 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains n selling the greenback on intra-day recovery is recommended. On the upside, only a daily close abv 119.39 wud indicate a low has been made n yield gain to 119.79/82 n then 120.30/40.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Jan 2015 23:52GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
118.28

55 HR EMA
118.13

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
64

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
119.96 - Jan 8 high
119.32 - Last Mon’s high
118.87 - Last Tue’s high

Support
118.08 - Hourly chart
117.83 - Y’day’s Asian moring high, now sup
117.18 - Last Wed’s low

. USD/JPY - 118.56… Although active cross-buying in yen pressured dlr to 117.27 ahead of Asian open on Mon, renewed weakness in yen vs other currencies lifted price n dlr rallied to 118.48 in NY morning. Later, dlr briefly retreated to 118.13 n then climbed to session high of 118.50 at NY close.

. Let’s look at the bigger picture, as mentioned in recent update, dlr’s volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 115.57, subsequent bounce to 120.83 marked the b-leg top, then the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom, last week’s rise to 118.87 (Tue) signalled d-leg rise was in progress which shud falter below 120.83 n yield an e-leg fall in Feb. On the downside, only below key sup at 115.57 wud invalidate abv triangle scenario n yield correction of the LT uptrend fm 75.32 (2011 record low) to 114.55 n possibly twd 113.52 next month.

. Today, dlr’s strg rebound fm said y’day’s low at 117.27 suggests as long as minor sup at 118.08 hold, intra-day upside bias remains for gain twd 118.87 res, break there wud confirm abovementioned triangle d-leg upmove has resumed n shud yield gain to 119.32/37. Therefore, buying dlr again on dips is favoured.

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Feb 2015 23:54GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
117.52

55 HR EMA
117.74

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
38

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue

Resistance
118.50 - Last Thur’s high
118.12 - Hourly chart
117.66 - Hourly chart

Support
116.69 - Intra-day low in NZ (Reuters)
116.32 - Jan 16 European low
115.85 - Jan 16 low

. USD/JPY - 117.16… The greenback swung wildly last week inside previous broad range of 118.87-117.48. Dlr staged a strg bounce fm 117.27 (Mon) to 118.66 Tue but only to fall back to 117.27 Wed. Despite a rebound to 118.50 Thur, price fell to 117.30 in NY Fri, then gapped lower to 116.69 at NZ open today.

. Looking at the bigger picture, we’ve taken recent view dlr’s volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom. Then dlr’s subsequent strg bounce to 118.87 was the 3-legged d-leg upmove. Despite today’s weakness to 116.69, reckon downside wud hold well abv 115.85 n bring rebound later this week, however, a daily close abv 118.87 needed to signal an ‘upside break’ of recent broad consolidation has taken place. On the downside, only below key sup at 115.57 wud invalidate abv triangle scenario n yield correction of the LT uptrend fm 75.32 (2011 record low) to 114.55 n possibly twd 113.52 later.

. Today, intra-day buyong of yen on risk aversion following w/end’s downbeat China PMIs may pressure dlr to 116.40/50 b4 prospect of another rebound.

WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Feb 2015 23:19GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
118.49

55 HR EMA
117.97

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators

Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI
69

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of recent upmove

Resistance
120.42 - 1.236 ext. of 115.85-118.87 fm 116.66
119.96 - Jan 08 high
119.32 - Jan 12 high

Support
118.50 - Jan 29 high (now sup)
118.00 - Last wed’s high (now sup)
117.60 - Last Thur’s high (now sup)

. USD/JPY - 119.01… The pair weakened initially to a 2-week low of 116.66 in the beginning of last week n then gyrated inside a 116.88-118.00 range until Fri when robust U.S. payrolls plus rising U.S. treasury yields sent price rallying sharply abv 118.00 res to a 3-week high of 119.23 in NY session.

. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr’s strg rise to 119.22 on Fri lents credence to our recent broad consolidative view where the volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle, with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom. Last week’s 3 legged rise fm 116.66 could either be the d-leg rebound which shud falter below 120.83 n yield one more e-leg decline or 116.66 may well be the e-led terminus. In either case, trading dlr fm the long side (our weekly strategy is currently holding a long position) is therefore favoured. Abv 120.83 anytime wud signal an ‘upside break’ has occured, then dlr wud head wtd 121.85 later this month.

. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips is the way to go as 118.40/50 wud hold but 119.96 res wud cap upside.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update 13 Feb 2015 00:00GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
118.34

55 HR EMA
118.46

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI
36

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy trading to continue

Resistance
120.48 - Wed’s fresh 1-month peak
119.88 - Hourly chart
119.62 - Tue’s high

Support
118.51 - Y’day’s low
118.33 - Mon’s low
118.00 - Last Wed’s high (now sup)

. USD/JPY - 118.94… Although dlr staged a bounce fm 119.98 to 120.37 in Asia on Thur, price tumbled to 118.73 in European morning after hawkish comments fm Japan’s central bank. Later, despite a strg recovery to 119.88, price fell further to 118.51 in NY after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. eco. data.

. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr selloff y’day after extending the erratic upmove fm Jan’s low at 115.85 to 120.48 Wed has anchored our recent broad consolidative view where the volatile price action fm Dec’s 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle, with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan’s low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom n fall fm Wed’s high of 120.48 has marked the terminus of d-leg rise fm last week’s low at 116.66. Current e-leg decline fm 120.48 wud yield weakness to 117.62, this is the ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48, but price shud hold abv 117.18 (last Fri’s low) n yield rebound. Looking ahead, only abv 120.83 wud signal an ‘upside break’ has occured, then dlr wud head wud 121.85 later in Feb.

. Today, although we’re holding a long position for a retracement of the fall fm 120.48. Below 118.51 wud risk re-test of this week’s 118.33 (Mon) low.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 17 Feb 2015 23:59GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
118.96

55 HR EMA
118.83

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Easing fm o/bot

13 HR RSI
70

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
120.48 - Feb high (Feb 11)
119.88 - Hourly chart
119.41 - Y’day’s high

Support
118.92 - Y’day’s Euroepan morning high
118.20 - Mon’s low (NZ)
118.00 - Feb 04 high (now sup)

. USD/JPY - 119.22… Despite initial brief dip to 118.23 at Asian open on Tue, dlr rebounded to 118.65 in Asia. Dlr continued to ratchet higher throughout the day on broad-based yen weakness, the pair later rallied to 119.41 as talk of a Greek deal on Wed & rising U.S. treasury yields boosted risk appetite.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although y’day’s rally to 119.41 suggests early fall fm Feb’s 120.48 has made a temp. low at 118.20 Mon, broad outlook remains consolidative. As mentioned recently, dlr’s ‘triangle’ scenario fm 2014 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is unfolding where sell off to 115.85 marked the terminus of the a-leg, then rebound to 120.83 was the b-leg top (also pivotal res), subsequent decline to 115.85 was c-leg bottom n aforesaid ascent to 120.48 was the d-leg top. If this triangle consolidation is correct, decline fm 120.48 is therefore the ‘final’ e-leg fall which shud pressure price to 117.62 (being 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48) but 116.66 sup shud contain downside.

. Today, a current price is trading abv the 21-hr n 55-hr emas, suggesting a day of consolidation with upside bias remains for gain twd 119.8 but reckon 120.48 res shud hold n yield decline. Below 118.65/67 signals top, 118.20/23.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 25 Feb 2015 23:42GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
118.87

55 HR EMA
118.92

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
46

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
119.84 - Tue’s high
119.41 - Last Tue & Wed high
119.06 - Y’day’s high

Support
118.62 - Y’day’s low
118.20 - Last Mon’s low (NZ)
117.62 - 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48

. USD/JPY - 118.83… The greenback extended previous day’s sell off at Asian open Wed n fell to session low at 118.62, however, renewed cross selling in yen due to gain in the Nikkei to a fresh 15-year high lifted the pair. Dlr later ratcheted higher to 119.06 in NY morning b4 edging lower in NY afternoon.

. Y’day’s price action suggests choppy trading below Feb’s high at 120.48 wud continue with downside bias. The bigger picture remains unchanged, we’re retaining the ‘triangle’ scenario fm 2014 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 (Dec) where the sell off to 115.85 marked the terminus of the a-leg, then rebound to 120.83 was the b-leg top (also pivotal res), subsequent decline to 115.85 was the c-leg bottom n aforesaid ascent to 120.48 was the d-leg top. If this triangle consolidation holds true, decline fm 120.48 is therefore the ‘final’ e-leg fall which shud pressure price to 117.62 (being 61.8% r of 115.85-120.48) but sup at 116.66 shud contain downside.

. Today, we are holding a short position entered y’day for weakness to 118.35 n one shud look to exit on such decline as last week’s low at 118.20 shud remain intact on 1st testing n yield subsequent recovery.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Mar 2015 23:44GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
121.08

55 HR EMA
120.74

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
69

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Resumption of upmove

Resistance
122.92 - 2.618 ext. of 118.20-119.84 fm 118.63
122.30 - 2.236 ext. of 118.20-119.84 fm 118.63
121.85 - Jan 08 2014 7-1/2 year peak

Support
120.61 - Mon’s low
120.48 - Feb 11 high (now sup)
119.90 - Last Fri’s low

. USD/JPY - 121.55… Despite initial brief retreat to 120.61 Mon at Asian open, the greenback rebounded to 121.13 in Asian morning b4 retreating again to 120.66 in Europe. However, renewed yen-selling in Europe pushed the pair higher n dlr later climbed to session high of 121.41 in New York b4 easing.

. On the bigger picture, Fri’s rally abv indicated ‘pivotal’ daily res at 120.83 (triangle b-leg top) to 121.29 signals an ‘upside break’ of the 3-month long triangle consolidation has taken place n as long as 119.90 holds, long-term uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 wud resume, abv 121.85 anytime wud extend aforesaid move to 123.89 n possibly twd 125.86 later this month, being 50% n 61.8% projections respectively of the intermediate rise fm 105.20-121.85 measured fm 115.57. Having said that, as daily technical indicators wud display ‘bearish divergences’ on such move, strg gain abv there is unlikely to be seen n risk wud increase for a much-needed correction later.

. Today, dlr has risen abv Mon’s 121.41 high to 121.61 ahead of Asian open, suggesting re-test of 2014 major peak at 121.85 wud be forthcoming soon, abv wud extend to 122.20/30 later n we’re holding a long position for 121.70 1st.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 18 Mar 2015 00:04GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
121.33

55 HR EMA
121.33

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
47

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias

Resistance
122.03 - Tue’s fresh near 8-year top
121.85 - 2014 Dec 08 7-1/2 year peak
121.67 - Last Thur’s high

Support
121.10 - Mon’s low
120.65 - Last Thur’s low (interbank)
119.90 - Mar 06 low

. USD/JPY - 121.32 … The greenback spent another lackluster day trading inside a narrow range of 121.10-121.48 on Tue as investors were keeping their powder dry ahead of the release of important FOMC statements later Wed. Price retreated briefly fm Asian high at 121.52 to 121.12 in NY morning b4 rebounding.

. Looking at the bigger picture, although dlr’s early brief rise abv 2014 high at 121.85 to a fresh near 8-year peak of 122.03 confirms an ‘upside break’ of the 3-month long triangle consolidation has taken place n the uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has finally resumed, subsequent retreat (this is viewed as the so-called ‘return move’) suggests consolidation is in store b4 said upmove resumes to 123.89, bring 50% proj. of MT intermediate rise fm 105.20-121.85 measured fm 115.57, however, ‘bearish divergences’ on daily indicators shud cap price below 125.86 (61.8% proj.). This week, initial upside targets are 122.35 n then 122.75, being 50% & 61.8% proj. respectively of 118.63-122.03 measured fm 120.65 (adjust this lvl if necessary) n only below 119.38 aborts bullishness.

. Today, buying dlr on dips is still favoured n only firm break of prev. sup area 120.61/65 wud risk stronger retrace. to 120.20/30 but 119.90 wud hold.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Mar 2015 00:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
119.83

55 HR EMA
120.13

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
42

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
121.20 - Last Fri’s high
120.61 - Last Fri’s Asian low (now res)
120.17 - Y’day’s high

Support
119.59 - Y’day’s low
119.29 - Last Wed’s low
118.80 - 50% r of 115.57-122.03

. USD/JPY - 119.77 … The pair extended last Fri’s sell off to 119.83 in Aust. on Mon due to initial broad-based renewed weakness in the usd. Price then weakened further to 119.76 in Asia b4 staging a rebound to 120.17 in Europe but only to fall session lows of 119.59 in NY morning n then 119.58 in Aust. today.

. Looking at the daily picture, despite dlr’s marginal breach of 2014 peak at 121.85 (Dec) to a near 8-year high of 122.03, lack of follow-through buying n subsequent brief but sharp fall to 119.29 signals a temporary top is in place. As dlr has fallen again after staging a rebound to 121.20 on Fri, choppy consolidation with downside bias remains this week, a daily close below 119.29 wud bring a stronger correction to 118.80 (being 50% r of intermediate rise fm 115.57 (Dec low) to 122.03 n possibly twd 118.46 (equality proj. of 122.03-119.29 measured fm 121.20), however, reckon daily chart sup at 118.20 shud contain weakness n yield a much-needed strg rebound later.

. Today, as current price is trading below 21-hr n 55-hr emas, selling dlr on intra-day recovery is favoured for re-test of 119.29. Only abv 120.58/61
(being 61.8% r of 121.20-119.59 n previous sup resp.) signals low, risks 121.20.

[B]DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK[/B]
Last Update At [B]13 Apr 2015[/B] [I]23:49GMT[/I]

[B]Trend Daily Chart[/B]
Sideways

[B]Daily Indicators [/B]
Neutral

[B]21 HR EMA[/B]
120.24

[B]55 HR EMA[/B]
120.27

[B]Trend Hourly Chart[/B]
Sideways

[B]Hourly Indicators[/B]
Falling

[B]13 HR RSI[/B]
40

[B]14 HR DMI[/B]
-ve

[B]Daily Analysis[/B]
Consolidation with a neutral bias

[B]Resistance[/B]
121.20 - Mar 20 high
120.84 - Y’day’s high
120.43 - Y’day’s NY res

[B]Support[/B]
119.68 - Y’day’s low (interbank)
119.64 - Last Wed’s low
119.42 - Apr 01 low

. [B]USD/JPY[/B] - 120.08 … The greenback found renewed buying abv last Fri’s low at 120.05 n ratcheted higher in Asia on Mon. The pair climbed briefly abv last Thur’s peak at 120.74 to a near 3-week high of 120.84 b4 tumbling to 119.68 in NY morning after Japan PM’s adviser Abe said appropriate rate for yen is 105.

. On the bigger picture, as mentioned previously, dlr’s 3-legged fall fm Mar’s near 6-year peak at 122.03 to 118.33 signals a temporary top has been made here as this high was accompanied by ‘bearish divergences’ on the daily indicators. Although y’day’s strg retreat fm 120.84 to 119.71 suggests erratic upmove fm Mar’s low at 118.33 (reaction low fm 122.03 peak) has formed a temporary top there n further choppy consolidation wud be seen, reckon pullback wud be ltd to 119.59/64 (being 50% r of 118.33-120.84 n chart sup respectively) n yield rebound later, however, abv 120.84 needed to bring re-test of pivotal res at 121.20 (Mar 20 high), a break there wud signal correction fm 122.03 peak has ended earlier at 118.33 in March n price wud make further headway to 121.57/62.

. Today, we’re standing aside initially n may buy dlr on next intra-day fall but abv 120.84 needed to extend recent erratic rise twd 121.20 later.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 20/04/2015 23:53 GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
119.13

55 HR EMA
119.08

Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
58

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Initial rise b4 retreat

Resistance
120.12 - 14 Apr high
119.75 - Last Wed’s high
119.44 - Y’day’s high

Support
118.79 - Last Wed’s low
118.53 - Y’day’s low
118.33 - Mar 28 low

. USD/JPY - 119.26… The greenback met renewed selling at 119.02 in NZ on Mon n then fell briefly below last Fri’s low at 118.57 to an intra-day low of 118.53 at European opening due to cross buying in jpy. However, dlr’s broad-based strength lifted price to 119.44 in NY morning b4 easing.

. Despite extending decline fm last week’s 120.84 high to a marginal low at 118.53 (4 ticks below last Fri’s low at 118.57) on Mon, subsequent strg rebound to 119.44 suggests further choppy consolidation abv Mar’s trough at 118.33 (reaction low fm 122.03 peak) wud continue n a retracement of early fall fm 120.84 to 119.69/75 (50% r of 120.84-118.53 n last Wed’s high respectively) is likely, however, reckon minor res at 120.12/18 shud cap upside. Looking ahead, a break of said key daily sup at 118.33 anytime wud confirm fall 2015 near 8-year peak at 122.03 has finally resumed, then price wud be en route twd 117.14, this is 100% measurement of 122.03-118.33 projected fm 120.84.

. Today, as Mon’s 118.53 low was accompanied by ‘bullish convergences’ on the hourly indicators, subsequent rally to 119.44 suggests 1-2 days of consolidation is in store. We’re selling on upmove for subsequent retreat to 118.85/95.

[B]DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK[/B]
Last Update At [B]17/06/2015[/B] [I]23:57 GMT[/I]

[B]Trend Daily Chart[/B]
Sideways

[B]Daily Indicators[/B]
Turning down

[B]21 HR EMA[/B]
123.68

[B]55 HR EMA[/B]
123.61

[B]Trend Hourly Chart[/B]
Sideways

[B]Hourly Indicators[/B]
Falling

[B]13 HR RSI [/B]
44

[B]14 HR DMI[/B]
-ve

[B]Daily Analysis[/B]
Consolidation with downside bias

[B]Resistance [/B]
124.45 - Y’day’s high
124.19 - Last Thur’s high
123.82 - Last Fri’s high

[B]Support[/B]
123.10 - Y’day’s low (interbank)
122.94 - Hourly sup
122.47 - Last Wed’s 2-week low

. [B] USD/JPY [/B]- 123.56 … The greenback ratcheted higher in Asia on Wed n then penetrated last Fri’s high of 123.82 to 124.30 in NY morning. The pair later rose briefly to 123.45 after Fed kept interest rate unchanged, however, dovish remarks by Fed chair sent dlr tumbling to as low as 123.10 b4 stabilising.

. The bigger picture on dlr remains unchanged despite y’day’s wild swings where early decline fm Jun’s fresh near 13-year peak peak at 125.86 to 122.47 last week confirms recent strg uptrend has made a temporary top there. Although dlr rallied rallied brief abv 124.19 res to 124.45 y’day, subsequent selloff to 23.22 suggests further gyrations inside 125.86-122.47 broad range wud continue with downside bias. A daily close below y’day’s 123.10 low wud signal recovery fm 122.47 has ended n bring a re-test of said sup, below wud bring further weakness to 122.03/121.93 (Mar 10 high, now sup n 38.2% r of the intermediate rise fm 115.57 Dec 2014 low respectively). Abv 124.45 wud yields 124.62, 125.00.

. Today, as dlr remains under pressure vs the major currencies (except vs nzd), selling the pair on recovery is favoured but 122.47/54 shud hold. On the upside, abv 124.00 wud confirm low is made n yield another rise twd 134.46.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 08 Jul 2015 00:15GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Turning down

21 HR EMA
122.49

55 HR EMA
122.58

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Neutral

13 HR RSI
49

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue

Resistance
123.75 - Last Thur’s low
123.19 - Last Fri’s high
122.93 - Mon’s high

Support
122.01 - Y’day’s low
121.70 - Y’day’s fresh 1-month low (NZ)
121.49 - May 20 high (now sup)

. USD/JPY - 122.54… Despite a brief bounce to 122.88 on Tue, renewed selling below Mon’s 122.93 high knocked price lower. Dlr nose-dived to 122.01 on renewed risk aversion due to the selloff in global equities b4 recovering.

. On the bigger picture, dlr’s erratic fall fm Jun’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 to last week’s 121.94 low, then a fresh 1-month trough of 121.70 on Mon confirms the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has formed a temporary high there. Despite dlr’s rebound fm 121.70 to 122.93, subsequent strg retreat to 122.01 y’day suggests recovery has possibly ended, however, breach of said sup is needed to confirm aforesaid fall has once again resumed n extend to 121.49 sup. On the upside, abv 122.93/97 res wud bring stronger retracement to 123.19/29 (last Fri’s high n ‘min’ 38.2% r of 125.86-121.70 respectively) is likely but last week’s high at 123.75 would cap upside n yield resumption of aforesaid decline fm 125.86 to 121.49 (prev. res, now sup) n then next chart sup at 120.64.

. Today, despite y’day’s cross-inspired sharp retreat fm 122.88 to 122.01, subsequent rebound in the Dow had lifted dlr in NY afternoon, suggesting choppy trading abv Mon’s 121.70 low wud continue, abv 122.93/97 wud yield 123.19/24.

DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 15 Jul 2015 00:07GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
123.36

55 HR EMA
123.14

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
47

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
One more rise b4 retreat

Resistance
124.38 - Jun 24 high
123.99 - Jun 28 high
123.75 - Jul 02 high

Support
122.92 - Y’day’s low
122.76 - 38.2% r of 121.19-123.73
122.05 - Mon’s low (NZ)

. USD/JPY - 123.35… Despite climbing to a near 2-week high of 123.73 at Tokyo open on Tue, cross-unwinding in yen pushed price lower to 123.19, dlr tanked briefly to 122.92 after weak US retail sales b4 rebounding to 123.45.

. On the daily daily, although dlr’s erratic decline fm Jun’s near 13-year peak at 125.86 to as low as 120.42 last Wed confirms the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 has formed a top there, the strong rebound to 123.73 y’day signals 1st leg of correction has ended there n consolidation with near term upside bias remains for gain to 123.75/123.78, being Jul’s high as well as ‘dynamic’ 61.8% r of aforesaid fall fm 125.86, reckon upside would falter below res area at 124.46/62 n yield another decline later next week. Therefore, whilst buying dlr on dips in anticipation of further gain to indicated upside target is favoured, position players should sell dlr on such rise. On the downside, a daily close below 122.04 would suggest correction over, yield re-test of 120.42.

. Today, as y’day’s bound fm 122.92 suggests pullback fm 123.73 is over n wud extend recent gain to 123.99, ‘bearish divergences’ on hourly indicators wud cap price below 124.23. Therefore, we’re trading on both sides of the market.

Skipping to USD/JPY, Mir notes that it’s business as usual for the pair and the only surprise was the recent dip below the 50D MA where spot has tracked in recent months. Mir is looking for a progression to the 128 region.
See more at: EUR/USD to break lower, but not just yet, S&P 500 to break out soon? - Tip TV