AceTraderFx Nov 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Trading Discussion Currencies
14

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:01GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 119.33 ... The greenback rallied to a fresh 7-year high at 119.44 in Tokyo morning on improved risk appetite due to the rally in global stock markets together with the release of slightly better-than-expected China's HSBC services PMI which came in at 53.0 versus previous reading of 52.9. Nikkei-225 currently rises by 199 points to 17862 following the 102 points rise in Dow Jones index on Tuesday.

Bids are now located at 119.15-10, 119.00 n more at 118.80. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.40-50, 119.70-80 n more at 120.00 (sizeable).

Yesterday, the NY morning despite a brief pullback fm a fresh 119.28 to 119.04, dlr had risen again n rose 1-pip higher to a fresh 7-year peak at 119.29. Although dlr maintained a firm bias after intra-day resumption of LT uptrend, as investors showed muted reaction to the release of upbeat U.S. construction spending data, suggesting sharp gain was not likely to be seen n price shud falter well below psychological res at 120.00, yield retreat later. U.S. Oct construction spending came at +1.1%, higher than expectation of 0.6% n also the highest lvl since May.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s GDP, China’s NBS Non-Mfg PMI and HSBC Services PMI, Swiss GDP, Germany’s Markit Services PMI, eurozone Markit Services Final PMI, UK Markit/CIPS Serv PMI, eurozone Retail Sales, US ADP National Employment, Productivity Revised, Markit Comp Final PMI, ISM Non-Mfg PMI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision and statement, US Fed’s Beige Book.

15

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:32GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ...... BoJ board member Takehero Sata who is speaking at a meeting with business leaders in Kochi quoting his speech by Reuters :

-efforts to restore fiscal health important when BoJ seeks o exit QQE;
-success of QQE hinges on govt’s commitment to fiscal reform;
-have proposed making BoJ’s price target a flexible one with room for some allowance;
-BoJ’s tools to respond ltd if concern over govt’s commitment heightens, raises risk premium in JGB market;
-prices reflect state of economy n are not a variable that can be controlled by a central bank;
-what’s important is not to focus on monthly fluctuations of CPI but to scrutinise wide range of data in forward-looking manner;
-dissented fm Oct 31 easing as virtuous cycle of eco. activity n prices was basically intact;
-marginal effect of expanding QQE won’t be large given nominal interest rates already at historically low levels;
-must watch whether BoJ’s asset buying creates distortions on eco. activity or accumulation of financial imbalances;
-there is uncertainty on whether global growth will steadily heighten IMF projects;
-must be mindful of risk of Europe experiencing prolonged low inflation or slipping into deflation;
-expect Japan’s economy to recover moderately as a trend as exports have stopped falling;
-risk to Japan’s economy are exports, effect of weak yen on domestic demand, n outlook of household, business sentiment;
-Japan’s CPI growth may stall around middle of next year given commodity price moves;
-commodity price falls positive for Japan’s economy, will push up overall prices in long run.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance, UK Halifax house prices, Swiss Industrial Orders, BOE rate decision, ECB rate decision, ECB press conference, US Initial jobless claims, Canada’s Ivey PMI.

16

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

08 Dec 2014[/B] [I]00:48GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ..... Although dlr climbed to a fresh 7-year peak of 121.85 ahead of Tloyo open on Mon, release of downbeat revision in Japan's Q3 GDP triggered buying of yen on risk aversion.

Reuters reported Japan’s economic contraction in Jul-Sep was deeper than initially expected on declines in capital expenditure, according to revised data on Mon that backs PM Shinzo Abe’s recent decision to delay a 2nd sales tax hike.

The data indicated that the hit fm Apr’s sales tax hike turned out to be bigger than expected.

Abe, who has called a snap poll for Sun, hopes voters will agree that his stimulus policies n a decision to delay a 2nd sales tax hike next year will revive a sputtering economy.

The key factor behind the downgrade was a 0.4% decrease in capital expenditure, which was revised from a preliminary 0.2% fall after incorporating last week’s upbeat corporate capital spending survey.

On Apr 1, Japan’s sales tax increased to 8% fm 5%. After that hit household spending n led to Nov. 17’s dismal preliminary GDP data showing the economy was in recession, Abe postponed a 2nd tax hike to 10% by 18 months until Apr 2017.

The revised GDP data could be bad news for the BoJ, which will scrutinise it n other factors at a two-day rate review that ends on Fri. The central bank, which eased policy on Oct. 31, is widely expected to keep monetary settings unchanged and maintain its upbeat view of the economy.

Economists expect Japan to resume moderate growth in the current quarter on signs corporate and household spending are gradually recovering fm the pain caused by the Apr tax hike.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of the following economic data:

Japan’s Reuters Tankan DI, GDP, Current account, Tertiary industry index, Economy Watchers Poll, UK’s BoE Quarterly Bulletin, China’s Trade Balance, Imports and Exports, Germany’s Industrial output, Switzerland’s CPI, EU’s Sentix Investment Confidence, Canada Housing starts, building permits, U.S. employment trends [B]on Monday[/B].

U.K.'s BRC retail sales, Australia NAB Business Confidence, NAB Business conditions, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, Germany’s Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, France’s Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, U.K.'s Industrial output, Manufacturing Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, U.S.'s NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s Government Monthly Debt, Government Optg Balance, Japan’s Business Survey Index, Corp Goods Price, Australia’s Housing Finance, Invest Housing Finance, China’s CPI, PPI, Japan’s Consumer Confidence, Machine tool orders, France’s non-farm payrolls, Industrial Output, U.K.'s Trade Balance, U.S. Federal Budget [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s RBNZ rate decision, Japan’s Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment rate, Germany’s CPI, HICP, France’s CPI, Switzerland’s SNB rate decision, Italy’s Industrial output, U.S.'s Export prices, Import prices, Retail sales, Initial jobless claims, Business inventories, Canada’s New Housing Price Index and Capacity Utilization [B]on Thursday. [/B]

New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Capacity Utilization Index Change, Industrial output, Chain’s Industrial output, retail sales, France’s Current account, Italy’s Consumer Prices, U.K.'s Construction O/P, EU’s employment, Industrial production, U.S.'s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index [B]on Friday.[/B]

17

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

09 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:25GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ....... The greenback tumbled from yesterday's fresh 7-year high at 121.85 (AUS) to as low as 120.20 (NY) due to active long liquidations as Japan's Nikkei-225 index fell sharply following the decline in global stock markets.

Despite staging a brief recovery to 121.00 at Tokyo opening, selling interest there capped dlr’s upside somewhat.
Offers are now tipped at 120.90-00 and more at 121.20-30.
On the downside, some bids are located at 120.50 and 120.30-20.

Earlier statement statement from Japan FinMin, quote:
‘don’t think Japan in recession;
to stick to aim of achieving primary budget surplus in FY2020/21 although sales tax hike delay makes it harder to meet the target;
won’t comment on FX levels;
closely watching market moves.’
‘there are signs that wages will continue rising, allowing economy to withstand future tax hike;
decline in oil prices is likely to offset rise in import prices due to weak yen.’

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of U.K.'s BRC retail sales, Australia NAB Business Confidence, NAB Business conditions, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, Germany’s Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, France’s Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, U.K.'s Industrial output, Manufacturing Output, NIESR GDP Estimate, U.S.'s NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, Wholesale inventories, Wholesale sales. EU finance ministers meet in Brussels.

18

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:01GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ....... Despite yesterday's sharp sell off from 121.00 to as low as 117.90 due to renew risk aversion on political instability in Greece together with the sell off in European equities, the greenback rebounded strongly in late NY on the rebound in U.S. stock markets.

The pair rose to 119.92 in Asian morning as Nikkei-225 index pared some of early losses.
Bids are now located at 119.70-65, 119.50 and more at 119.30.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 120.00 and 120.10-20.
On the data front, Japan will release its consumer confidence index at 05:00GMT.

    [B]AUD/USD[/B] - ........ Australian dollar fell in Asian morning after the release of lower-than-expected China's CPI and PPI data which came in at -0.2% m/m or 1.4% y/y and -2.7% y/y versus 0.0% m/m or 1.6% y/y and -2.4% y/y respectively.
19

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:35GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... The greenback tumbled against the Japanese yen due to renewed risk aversion on the sell off in global stock markets. Nikkiei-225 index fell by more than 1% following Wednesday's 268 points drop in Dow Jones index. The pair weakened to as low as 117.45 in Tokyo morning before rebounding strongly to 118.33 on short-covering.

Offers are now tipped at 118.20 and more at 118.30-40.
On the downside, some bids are located at 117.70 and 117.50.

Investors are now focusing on an election sweep for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this weekend.
Nikkei news reported this morning that Abe needs big margin of victory to retain influence, the LDP and Komeito held 326 out of 480 seats in the lower house before it was dissolved last month; following a slight trim, 475 seats will be up for grabs on December 14; LDP and Komeito leaders have set a joint goal of winning at least 270; they need 266 seats needed to guarantee majorities on all of the house? standing committees; a senior LDP election strategist reckons the party will win in 20 to 30 fewer districts than in 2012, but will pick up more seats determined by proportional representation; if Komeito manages to maintain its status quo ante of 31 seats, the coalition stands a good chance of taking 270 to 300 seats, give or take a few, says a senior LDP lawmaker.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment rate, Germany’s CPI, HICP, France’s CPI, Switzerland’s SNB rate decision, Italy’s Industrial output, U.S.'s Export prices, Import prices, Retail sales, Initial jobless claims, Business inventories, Canada’s New Housing Price Index and Capacity Utilization.

20

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Dec 2014[/B] [I] 02:15GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... The greenback swung wildly against the Japanese yen on Thursday. Despite hitting a fresh 2-week low of 117.45 in Tokyo morning on Thursday, dollar ratcheted higher and rose to 119.56 on active short-covering due to the rebound in Nikkei-225 index following the rise in U.S. stock markets.

However, the sell off in crude oil prices (broke $60 per barrel) in late NY knocked price lower to 118.61.
Offers are now tipped at 119.10-20 and more at 119.40-50.
On the downside, some bids are located at 118.70-60 with stops seen below 118.50.

[B]Friday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Capacity Utilization Index Change, Industrial output, Chain’s Industrial output, retail sales, German Wholesale Price, France’s Current account, Italy’s Consumer Prices, U.K.'s Construction O/P, EU’s employment, Industrial production, U.S.'s PPI and University of Michigan Sentiment Index.

21

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Dec 2014[/B] [I]00:33GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Dollar swung wildly in early Asian trading following Japan's national election on Sunday. Reuters reported Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's coalition cruised to a big election win, ensuring he will stick to reflationary economic policies n a muscular security stance, but record low turnout pointed to broad dissatisfaction with his performance.

The Nikkei is currently down 264 points at 17108 following Friday’s decline in the Dow & S&P 500.
The greenback fell due to broad-based gain in the yen after Japanese stocks weakened following an expected big victory for Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s coalition in Sun’s election.
Although dlr opened high at 119.04 in thin New Zealand session, price quickly swung from gain to losses due to broad-based buying in yen, dlr later fell to 117.78 ahead of Tokyo open before staging a recovery.

Abe’s LDP n its junior partner, the Komeito party, won 326 seats, more than the 317 seats in the 475-member lower house required to maintain a two-thirds “super-majority” that smoothes parliamentary business. But the LDP won 291, slightly short of the 295 it held before the poll.

“I believe the public approved of two years of our ‘Abenomics’ policies,” Abe said in a televised interview. “But that doesn’t mean we can be complacent.”

Turnout was estimated to be a record low of 53.3%, below the 59.3% in a 2012 poll that returned Abe to power for a rare 2nd term on pledges to reboot an economy plagued by deflation n an aging, shrinking population.

Hopes for Abenomics were hit when Japan slipped into recession in the 3rd quarter following an Apr sales tax rise. Wage increases have not kept pace with price rises n data suggest any economic rebound is fragile.

[B]Data to be released this week: [/B]

Japan’s Tankan surveys, Switzerland’s Proper/Import Price, UK’s CBI Trends, U.S.'s NY Fed Manufacturing, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, NAHB Housing Market Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows [B]on Monday. [/B]

Australia’s RBA Minutes, China HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI for France, Germany and Eurozone, Italy’s Trade Balance, UK’s PPI, CPI,RPI, BoE Financial Stability Report, Germany ZEW Current Conditions, Eurozone’s trade balance, Canada’s Manufacturing sales, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, redbook and Markit Manufacturing PMI [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

New Zealand’s Current Account, Japan’s Trade Balance, exports, imports, Switzeland’s SNB’s Quarterly Bulletin, ZEW Investor Sentiment, UK’s BoE Meeting Minutes and MPC Vote Outcome, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment, Eurozone’s Inflation data, Lobour Costs, Canada’s Wholesale trade, U.S.'s CPI, Current Account, FOMC Rate Decision [B]on Wednesday.[/B]

New Zealand’s GDP, China’s House Prices, Switzerland’s Trade, Germany’s IFO Business Climates, IFO Current Conditions, IFO Expectations, U.K.'s Retail sales, U.S. Markit Service PMI, Philly Fed Business and Leading index change [B]on Thursday. [/B]

New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Outlook, Germany’s Gfk Consumer confidence, Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Producer Prices, France’s Business Climate, Eurozone’s Current Accounts, Italy’s Industrial Sales, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, PSNCR, PSNB, CBI Distributive Trades, Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales[B] on Friday.[/B]

22

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:50GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ..... Reuters reported earlier Japan's exports grew for a 3rd straight month in November from a year earlier, but much more slowly than expected and despite a sharp fall in the yen as slowing demand in Asia & Europe dampened trade.

The 4.9% rise in exports was much weaker than a 7.0% gain seen by economists in a Reuters poll, slowing from a 9.6% gain in October, MoF data showed.
Weakness in exports could compound April’s sales tax rise which pushed the economy into a recessionary 2nd quarter of contraction through September.

The data followed the BoJ’s key tankan survey, which showed business confidence barely improved in the 4th quarter, suggesting a slow climb out of recession despite gains in share prices and a steep fall in the yen.
The BOJ is expected to stand pat at a monetary policy meeting on Friday.

Export volume fell 1.7% in the year to November, the first annual drop in 3 months. Japanese shipments have struggled to pick up because companies have moved much of their production overseas, limiting gains from a weak currency.

At yesterday NY opening, despite dlr’s intra-day volatile swing after early sell off to a fresh near 1-month trough at 115.58 in Europe, price rebound after meeting renewed buying interest at 116.01 in the NY morning and then continued to edge higher after release of higher-than-expected U.S. Markit mfg PMI.

A report from Markit showed the U.S. mfg sector continued to expand in December, but growth rate hit an 11-mth low.
Markit said its preliminarily U.S. Mfg PMI index fell to 53.7 in December from November’s 54.8, matching the 2014 January low when severe weather impacted economic activity. Market expected the reading to be 55.2.

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s Current Account, Japan’s Trade Balance, exports, imports, Switzeland’s SNB’s Quarterly Bulletin, ZEW Investor Sentiment, UK’s BoE Meeting Minutes and MPC Vote Outcome, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment, Eurozone’s Inflation data, Labour Costs, Canada’s Wholesale trade, U.S.'s CPI, Current Account, FOMC Rate Decision

23

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Dec 2014[/B] [B]01:57GMT[/B]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... Despite Thursday's brief but strong retreat from 119.01 (Tokyo) to 118.26 in European morning on profit-taking, renewed buying quickly emerged n the pair rallied to an intra-day high of 119.36 due to the rally in global stock markets b4 retreating to 118.58.

Bids are now reported at 118.80, 118.60 and further out at 118.40-30. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 119.10-20 and 119.40.

Trading is relatively thin in Asia today as investors are waiting for BOJ rate decision and the press conference by BOJ’s governor Kuroda later today.

Statement from Japan’s FINMIN Aso, quote:
‘expects Russian gov’t will prevent rouble falls fm leading to turmoil seen in 1998;
oil prices are falling but still at high levels.’

Statement from Japan’s ECONMIN Akira Amari, quote:
-weak yen has benefited exporters but high import costs have hurt household;
-falling oil prices a positive for economy but make sure we escape deflation.

[B]Friday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Outlook, Japan leading economic index, BoJ rate decision, BoJ monetary policy statement and BoJ Governor Kuroda’s press conference, Germany’s Gfk Consumer confidence, Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Producer Prices, France’s Business Climate, Eurozone’s Current Accounts, Italy’s Industrial Sales, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, PSNCR, PSNB, CBI Distributive Trades, Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales.

24

[B]
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Dec 2014[/B] [I]06:01GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ...... Despite yesterday's rise to 120.72 in NY session due to renewed broad-based strength in the greenback, the pair relinquished Monday's gain as intra-day decline in the Nikkie (N225 closed at the day's low at 17450 n down by 279 points) plus fall in Asian stocks has damped risk sentiment, the closure of Japanese financial markets from Wednesday to Friday is also a contributory factor, suggesting dlr would close below December's 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 on Wednesday.

Offers are tipped at 120.50/60 and more above with some stops above 120.85. On the downside, some bids are noted at 120.20-00 area with stops touted below there, suggesting sideways trading would continue in European session.

Earlier more on the proposed tax cuts in Japan. Reuters reported Japan’s ruling coalition has approved a tax reform plan that will cut the corporate tax rate from Apr and pledge further reductions in coming years in a bid by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to boost profitability and bolster economic growth.

The pledge contained in a draft of the tax reform plan reviewed by Reuters on Tuesday would cut the overall effective corporate tax rate by 2.51 percentage points to 32.1%.

The plan was set to be approved by Abe’s LDP n coalition partner Komeito, early on Tuesday afternoon. The cabinet is expected to approve it in early January.
Abe hopes the tax cut will encourage companies to raise wages, which in turn should spur consumer spending.

The effective corporate tax rate is 34.6% for big firms based in Tokyo, among the highest in the major economies. The average corporate tax rate stands around 25% among OECD economies.
Abe and his ruling coaling won a majority in snap elections this month, giving him a fresh mandate to push through his “Abenomics” stimulus policies. The economy unexpectedly slipped into recession this year after an increase in the national sales tax in April hit consumer spending much harder than expected.

25

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:58GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... The greenback fell sharply to as low as 118.87 on Tuesday on renewed risk aversion due to the sell off in Nikkei-225 index together with the decline in crude oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery slid as much as 91 cents to $52.70 a barrel in New York, the lowest since May 2009, before trading at $53.70.
Offers are now tipped at 119.50-60 and more at 119.80 whilst some bids are located at 119.10-00 with stops building up below 118.80.

The BOJ said in a statement on Tuesday that it will buy at least 1.25 trillion yen of debt due in more than 10 years per month, up from a minimum target of 650 billion yen. The statement also showed BOJ will continue to purchase between 8 trillion yen to 12 trillion yen of government securities in total each month.

Yesterday the greenback has finally gained some respite after intra-day sell off to as low as 118.87 on yen’s broad-based strength due to safe-haven demand fuelled by tumbling oil prices. Dlr pared its losses and recovered to 119.49 at NY midday before retreating again.

Order book remained thin ahead of New Year holiday coming up with some offers seen at 119.45/50 and more above at 119.60/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids was noted at 118.80/90.

[B]Data to be released on Wednesday: [/B]

Japan market holiday, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, U.S. jobless claims, Chicago PMI and pending home sales.

26

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

02 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:24GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY -[/B] ....... The greenback ratcheted higher on renewed risk appetite in Asian morning on the 1st trading day of 2015 today.

Crude oil prices rose earlier to $55.11 per barrel on news of a larger-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventory and a fire at a major U.S. supply facility.

Intra-day rise gathered momentum after penetrating the psychological res at 120.00.
Bids are now located at 120.10-00 and more at 119.80.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 120.45/50 and more at 120.80.

A piece of Reuters news yen-bearish which came on on Thursday worth noting. BoJ Gov Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank has various tools left if it were to ease monetary policy again, stressing its determination to hit its inflation target in the next fiscal year.

“There are plenty of ways to adjust monetary policy,” Kuroda said in an interview with the Mainichi daily that ran on Thur, reiterating that the BOJ was ready to expand stimulus again if needed to meet its 2% price target.
He added “If the BOJ loosens its commitment just because it’s difficult to achieve the price target, that in itself will make it impossible to meet the price target.”

Kuroda has voiced confidence that Japan will see inflation hit 2% as targeted in 2015. But many analysts, and even some within the BOJ board, are sceptical as slumping oil prices have recently slowed consumer inflation to below 1%.

27

[b]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

06 Jan 2015[/b] [I]02:19GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... Despite dlr's resumption of yesterday's sell off to an intra-day low of 119.16 in Asian morning due to active risk aversion on the sharp sell off in Nikkei-225 index (currently fell below 17000 level by 416 points to 16995) following the 331 points decline in Dow Jones index, short-covering briefly lifted the pair.

However, renewed selling interest is tipped at 119.45-50 and more at 119.70. On the downside, mixture of bids n stops is located at 119.00.

More on Reuters news, China Dec HSBC services PMI hits 3-month high of 53.4 (previous reading was 53.0).
It reported China’s services sector grew at its fastest pace in 3 months in December as new orders remained strong, a private survey showed, an encouraging sign of strength even as manufacturing activity slows and the property market softens.

After a rough 2014, the world’s second-largest economy looks set to start the new year on a weak note, reinforcing expectations that Beijing will roll out more stimulus to avert a sharper slowdown which could trigger job losses and debt defaults.

The property slump is expected to last well into 2015, companies will continue to struggle to pay off debt and export demand may remain erratic, leaving only the services sector as the lone bright spot in the economy.
Japan’s Markit services PMI for Dec came in at 51.7 vs previous reading of 50.6. Dollar shows muted reaction to the eco. release.

Yesterday, the greenback has finally gained some respite after intra-day sell off to 119.43 in NY morning. The Japanese yen has gained broadly across the board, due partly to risk aversion triggered by the possible exit of Greece from Eurozone. Earlier on, despite a brief rebound from 119.98 to 120.65 in Asia, price tumbled to said low in NY before recovering to 119.62.

Tuesday will see the release of Australia exports, imports, trade balance, Japan service PMI, China services PMI, France consumer confidence, services PMI, Italy services PMI, Germany services PMI, Eurozone service PMI, UK services PMI, Canada producer prices, U.S. durable goods, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and services PMI

28

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jan 2015[/B] [I]07:32GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 118.97...... Dlr took centre stage in hectic Asian trading as intra-day sell off in the Nikkei (N225 closed down 3% or 525 points) following o/n sharp fall in the Dow and S&P 500 triggered broad- based yen buying on risk aversion.

Renewed selling in Australia easily pushed the greenback below Monday’s low at 119.32 (NY), despite minor short-covering at Tokyo open which lifted price from 119.16 to 119.45, continued weakness in the Nikkei prompted another round of yen buying, dlr’s intra-day decline accelerated in post-Tokyo lunch session and knocked price below 119.00, then 118.66 after tripping stops below last week’s low of 118.87.

The lack of a rebound suggests there is further mileage to the downside for dlr. offers have been lowered to 119.10/20 and more above with some stops above 119.50.
Some bids are noted at 118.60-50 and more stps are touted below 118.50, suggesting selling the dlr is the way to go.

29

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:20GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... Despite yesterday's sell off to as low as 118.04 in New York, the greenback rebounded to 119.15 in Asian morning on short-covering due to the bounce in Nikkei-225 index which turned into +ve territory and rose by 71 points to 16955, however, dlr's upside is likely to be ltd as offers are tipped at 119.30-40.

On the downside, bids are noted at 118.80 n 118.60-50.

Global stock markets tumbled yesterday as crude oil plunged yesterday and is down about 10 percent this year. U.S. stocks dropped after data showed the nation’s services industry expanded at the slowest pace in six months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index fell to 56.2, below economists’ forecast of 58.

The single currency tumbled to a fresh near 9-year low at 1.1850 (Reuters) in Australian morning due to speculation that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month to combat the risk of deflation.

Germany will release its retail sales n unemployment rate at 07:00GMT n 08:55GMT respectively. But most importantly, market players are focusing on the release of eurozone inflation data at 10:00GMT as consumer prices in the euro area probably fell for the first time in more than five years last month as economists expected the prices to drop an annual 0.1 percent in December.

In other news, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials are working on a plan to buy government bonds as they strive to prevent a deflationary spiral of falling prices and households postponing spending and they may use a gathering tomorrow to weigh options for a quantitative-easing program that may be announced at their Jan. 22 policy meeting.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of U.K. BRC shop price index, Halifax house price, Germany unemployment rate, Italy unemployment rate, EU inflation, unemployment rate, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. ADP employment, international trade and FOMC minutes.

30

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- 119.63 ..... The greenback rebounded against the Japanese yen on short-covering due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index which rose by 1.52% or 257 points to 17142. The pair penetrated yesterday's NY rise at 119.65 and rose briefly to 119.71 in Tokyo morning.

Bids are now located 119.40 and 119.20 whilst offers are tipped at 119.80-85 and more at 120.00 level.

The ADP Research Institute reported yesterday that companies in the U.S. added 241,000 workers in December, more than the 225,000 expected by economists.

Yesterday despite the greenback’s early pullback to 118.70 in European morning, renewed buying emerged there and lifted the price higher ahead of NY open. Intra-day ascent accelerated after the release of upbeat ADP employment report n the pair rose to 119.65 in NY morning before stabilizing.

[B]Thursday [/B]will see the release of Australia building approvals, Germany industrial orders, EU producer prices, retail sales, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims and Canada new housing price.

31

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jan 2015[/B] [I]03:22GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Reuters just reported Japan's economics minister said on Tuesday the BoJ is unlikely to meet its inflation target next fiscal year because the collapse in oil prices puts downward pressure on consumer prices.

Amari spoke one day after the gov’t said it expects overall consumer prices to rise 1.4% in fiscal 2015, well below the BOJ’s target of 2% inflation.

His comments are the clearest sign yet that the BOJ will either have to expand monetary policy further to meet its price target on schedule, or possibly allow more time for oil prices to rise.
“Our forecasts show it will be difficult for the BOJ to achieve its price target due to falling oil prices,” Amari told reporters.

“Lower oil prices aren’t necessarily a bad thing for the economy, but they are a negative factor for the BOJ’s price target.” It is up to the BOJ to make its own decisions about the outlook for prices, Amari said.

BoJ’s purchases of government debt n risk assets helped push down bond yields n initially boosted inflation expectations. However, the outlook for prices started to weaken last year as consumer spending lost momentum after an increase in sales tax. The BOJ has argued that consumer prices would accelerate again due to rising wages n a tight labour market, but this outcome is looking less likely in the face of an oil glut which could push Japan’s consumer prices lower. Oil futures are the weakest since 2009.

U.S. dollar briefly dropped to 117.75 in Asian morning due to initial decline in Nikkei-225 index together with Bloomberg reported that the currency’s best forecaster says he hasn’t recommended selling it in a few months with lower oil prices helping Japan’s trade balance.
However, the greenback rebounded on short-covering as Japanese equities pared some of early losses n Nikkei-225 futures turned into +ve territory (currently rose 75 points to 16885).

This morning bids were located at 117.80-75 n more at 117.60 with stops only seen below 117.50. On the upside, offers were tipped at 118.20-30 n 118.40-50.

In other news, Japanese five-year government bond yields fell to zero for the first time on record as central bank easing and slumping commodity prices drive demand for bonds across the globe. A record surplus of deposits over loans at Japanese banks is helping push government bond yields below zero as lenders funneling cash into the safest debt add to demand from the Bank of Japan’s bond-buying stimulus.

32

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jan 2015[/B] [I]01:57GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... The greenback remained under pressure in Asian morning due to the decline in Nikkei-225 index which fell by 138 points to 16950 following Tuesday's strong retreat in U.S. stock markets. U.S. dollar fell to an intra-day low at 117.50 in Tokyo morning before recovering briefly to 117.82.

Offers are now tipped at 117.80 and more at 118.00.
On the downside, mixture of bids and stops is located at 117.50 but buying interest is noted at 117.30-20.

In other news, Bloomberg reported that “the plunge in the price of oil makes it increasingly uncertain whether the Bank of Japan will reach its 2 percent inflation target in the coming fiscal year, according to people familiar with the central bank’s discussions.
The BOJ is considering cutting its price forecast for the year that starts in April, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
The BOJ is also mulling raising its growth outlook for the same period, the people said.”

[B]Wednesday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s Machine Tool Orders, France’s CPI, Italy’s CI, euro zone industrial production, U.K.'s CB leading economic index, U.S.'s Exports, Imports, Retail Sales, Business Inventories and Fed’s Beige Book.

33

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jan 2015[/B] [U]06:52GMT[/U]

[B]USD/JPY [/B]- ....... Dlr tumbles to a fresh 3-week low of 116.75 in heavy Asian trading.

Despite initial recovery from Tuesday’s NY low of 117.53, renewed selling emerged at 117.96 (Aust.) and knocked price to lower 117.50 shortly after Tokyo open.
Renewed weakness in the Nikkei (N225 closed down nearly 300 points at 16795 - a near 3-week low) triggered broad-based yen buying on risk aversion n the pair remained under pressure throughout Asian session after tripping stops below 117.00.

The lack of a rebound ahead of European open suggests intra-day downward pressure remains and looks like any rebound in the dlr would be ltd in European session as more stops are touted below 116.25, then below 116.00.
Offers are tipped at 117.20/30 n more at 117.50/60, so selling dlr on recovery is the way to go.