AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 May 2016
02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback rallied yesterday from Asian low at 107.23 to as high as 108.60 in New York morning as Japan's FinMin Aso said BoJ was ready to intervene in the FX market if needed. Dlr retreated briefly to 108.26 on profit-taking before rebounding again to 108.49 in Australia today, then marginally higher to 108.62 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225 index. 

Pay attention to the release of U.S. wholesale inventories and sales at 14:00GMT.
Street forecasts are -0.1% n 0.3% vs previous readings of -0.5% and -0.2% respectively.

Bids are now seen at 108.20/30 and more below at 108.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 108.80/90, suggesting buying on intra-day pullback is favored.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2016
02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ......Summary from members of BoJ April policy meeting, below are their views & opinions : 
  • time is needed for effect of negative rate policy to show on economy, & on prices.
  • the downside risks to economy remain large, BoJ shouldn’t hesitate taking additional easing steps if needed.
  • they should examine additional easing steps if needed to hit on price target.
  • on the enhance sustainability of current policy framework, this may take a much longer time to hit the price target.
  • now is time to examine effect of negative rate policy, with eye on global economic developments.
  • given that the market distortions caused by negative rates, they must focus on taking flexible approach to hitting base money target.

While BOJ’s gov Kuroda thinks that there is still a large downside risks to Japan’s economy, and that they should not won’t hesitate to take further easing steps if necessary. And if low rates persist for a long time that can cause problems, so if Japan doesn’t escape deflation, rates and consumption won’t be rising.

In addition to current headlines from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Reuters reported that the Governor in an interview with German daily Boersen Zeitung, said the Bank of Japan needs to wait a few more months to see the impact of its stimulus measures on the economy and that the bank could ease policy further if needed.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 May 2016
02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback met renewed selling at 108.83 at New York open and ratcheted lower to 108.37 in New York afternoon on dlr's broad-based weakness and briefly fell below said low to 108.23 at Asian open. 

However, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering and price rebounded to 108.59 in Tokyo morning.

There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but investors should pay particular attention to the release of jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for a slight decrease to 270K from previous reading of 274K.

Bids are now lowered to 107.90/00 and more below at 107.60/70 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 108.70/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

AceTrader - Best Intra-day Forex Trading Strategies
AceTrader has been in FX market since 1984, with proven analytical approach used by professionals and real-time updates

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 May 2016[/B] [I]01:30GMT[/I]

The Nikkei business daily reported at the weekend that the government would delay the tax increase to focus on measures to boost domestic demand. But today, Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara speaking to reporters, that there is no truth on the media report that the government would delay a sales tax hike scheduled for next year.
they had not received any instructions from Prime Minister Abe about the sales tax hike and that he would continue his work on compiling the government’s annual growth strategy.

While Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting that finance leaders from the Group of Seven rich nations will likely be discussing currencies and that Japan would place the utmost importance on stability in the foreign exchange market.
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet on May 20-21 in the northeastern Japanese city of Sendai.
The finance chiefs are expected to discuss ways to adopt monetary, structural and other policies taking into account each country’s situation as they tackle uncertainty over the global economy.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaking in parliament today, repeating that the government would raise the levy to 10 percent from the current 8 percent next April as scheduled barring a major financial crisis or significant natural disaster. He would decide on a sales tax hike planned for next year “appropriately at the appropriate time”.

[B]AceTraderFx May 18: Japan government won’t change it’s scheduled sales tax unless a crisis similar to collapse of Lehman Brothers happens[/B]

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 May 2016[/B] [I]05:30GMT[/I]

Today in Parliament Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed again that there is no change to his plan of proceeding with a scheduled sales tax hike next year unless a crisis of the scale of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, or a huge earthquake, hits the economy. While he pointed out that Japan’s private consumption has been weaker than expected since it was hit by the first sales tax hike in 2014.

The Japanese government’s annual economic growth strategy calls for measures to boost consumption on the assumption it will go ahead with a sales tax hike scheduled for next year, a draft obtained by Reuters showed on Wednesday.
The document, however, may do little to temper speculation that the government will delay the tax increase scheduled for April 2017 amid lingering concern that consumer spending is struggling due to low wages for part-time workers.

Japan’s top government spokesman and economics minister have repeatedly denied a report in the Nikkei newspaper over the weekend that a delay in the tax hike is a done deal.
Economists say Japan’s patchy growth and worries about a global slowdown could eventually force the government to reverse its official position and avoid placing an extra burden on households.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government is set to compile its growth strategy later on Wednesday, which will feature previously announced policies such as an increase in the minimum wage, better pay for day care workers and steps to narrow the pay gap between regular and part-time employees.

The government is scheduled to raise the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent next April.
The planned increase has already been delayed once after an increase to 8 percent from 5 percent in April 2014 hit consumption and knocked the economy into recession.

Japan will host a Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers summit from Friday. Abe has said he wants to use the meeting as a platform to promote more expansive fiscal policy, which economists say makes a sales tax delay more likely.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 May 2016[/B] [I]02:00GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr is nursing loss in subdued Tokyo morning after yesterday’s intra-day selloff from 110.24 (AUS) to as low as 109.11 in ‘delayed’ reaction to weekend’s warning issued by U.S. to Japan on yen-intervention to weaken the yen.
Although dlr tumbled to session low of 09.11 in New York after tripping stops below 109.33 (European low), short-covering (profit-taking) lifted price back to 109.41 in Asia, suggesting choppy trading above said New York low would continue before decline from Friday’s 3-week top at 110.59 resumes later today.

Offers are tipped at 109.55/65 and more above with stops reported above 110.00, initial bids are noted at 109.20-10 with stops below 109.00.

Later today, U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, then Market mfg PMI, new home sales data n Richmond Fed mfg shipment index during New York morning session.

[B]30 May 2016[/B] [I]1:08GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - .... Dollar climbed to a 1-month high of 110.86 ahead of Tokyo open following weekend news of a delay in a sales tax hike. Yesterday it was reported that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe plans to delay an increase in sales tax by two and a half years as the economy sputters and Abe prepares for a national election.  

The prime minister, who has promised to announce steps on Tuesday to spur economic growth and promote structural reform, is also expected to order an extra budget to fund stimulus measures, just two months into the fiscal year and on the heels of a supplementary budget to pay for recovery from recent earthquakes in southern Japan.

After chairing a summit of G7 leaders on Friday, Abe said Japan would mobilise “all policy tools” - including the possibility of delaying the tax hike - to avoid what he called an economic crisis on the scale of the global financial crisis that followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
Abe has long said he would proceed with a plan to raise the tax rate to 10 percent from 8 percent next April unless Japan faced a crisis on the magnitude of the Lehman shock.
He said the G7 “shares a strong sense of crisis” about the global outlook, with the most worrisome risk being a global contraction led by a slowdown in emerging economies like China.

But other G7 leaders, however, appeared to differ with Abe on the risk of a global crisis, fuelling comment that Abe was using the G7 to justify delaying the painful tax hike.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 [/B][I] 01:28[/I]

USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback found renewed buying at 107.50 in Europe yesterday n rose marginally above Asian high at 107.89 to 107.90, price pared its gains and tumbled to 107.15 in New York morning on yen's broad-based strength. 

Dlr met renewed selling at 107.45 in New York afternoon and fell sharply at Tokyo open, hitting a low at 106.85 in Tokyo morning on yen strength as Japan’s GDP data was revised upwards.

As there is no major eco. data due from U.S. today, range trading is likely to be seen with offers noted seen at 107.20/30 and more above at 107.40/50 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 106.20/30.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Jun 2016 [/B][I] 01:28[/I]

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters reported ahead of Asian open, Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said today that he was closely watching the impact of a referendum in Britain later this month over whether or not Britain is to remain in the European Union.  Speaking to reporters, he said that if Britons decide to leave the EU this could impact Japanese companies with operations in Britain. 

Ishihara also comment that a decline in Japanese machinery orders in April was no reason to be pessimistic about capital expenditure and that he had no plans to change his economic assessment.

Reuters had reported that Japanese wholesale prices fell 4.2 percent in the year to May.
The fall in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, compares with the median market forecast for a 4.2 percent annual decrease and follows a 4.2 percent annual decrease in April.

Overall final goods prices – the prices of finished products charged to businesses – fell 3.0 percent from a year earlier.
Domestic final goods prices, which loosely track the consumer price index, fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jun 2016[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]

[B]USD/JPY[/B] - ...... Although dlr ratcheted higher to 105.05 in New York following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, price retreated to 104.62 ahead of Asian opening on Wednesday and then lower to 104.43 in Tokyo morning due to broad-based buying in yen on risk aversion. 

Today’s focus for the greenback will be on another speech from Fed’s Chair Yellen at 14:00GMT, other than that, investors should also pay attention to the release of U.S.'s Monthly Home Price and Existing Homes Sales in New York morning.

At present, offers are reported at 104.70-80 and then 104.90-00 with stops above there.
On the downside, bids are noted at 104.30-20 and more at 104.10-00 with stops below 103.90.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jun 2016[/B] [I]01:40GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ......This morning an emergency meeting was called four days after Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said that they will ensure liquidity in the yen and in foreign currencies if needed by tapping currency swap lines established among six central banks. 

He saw no problems currently in market liquidity or in foreign currency funding among Japanese firms, but would continue to monitor the situation, he told reporters after an emergency meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Finance Minister Taro Aso.

BoJ deputy gov Nakaso they have no comment on whether to hold extra policy meeting and don’t see problem now in market liquidity, foreign currency funding by Japan firms.
While they will continue to monitor market situation, and will assure liquidity in foreign currencies by making use of currency swap arrangements among six central banks.

After the emergency meeting, Japan PM Abe told reporters that he had instructed Aso to take necessary steps in forex market, to focus even more closely especially attention to markets including forex. It is important for G7 to continue to send messages to stabilise markets. There are uncertainty, risks remain in financial markets and they expect BoJ to take steps to sustain market liquidity, financial intermediation

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jul 2016 [/B] [I]02:16GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - .... Although short-term specs gave the greenback a brief bashing ahead of Asian open on stop hunting and pressured the pair briefly below Friday's 102.44 low to 102.43, lack of follow-through selling swiftly lifted price to 102.68, suggesting range trading is likely to continue in Asia. 

As U.S. market is closed for Independence Day holiday, trading is likely to die down by European midday.

Friday’s intra-day selloff from 103.40 (AUS) to as low as 102.44 in Europe n subsequent narrow move in New York session suggests a temp. top has been made there, so mentality today is to sell the pair on recovery for a retracement of last week’s erratic rise from 101.41 (Monday).

Offers are tipped at 102.70/80 and more at 103.00/05 with stops building above 103.55.
Initial bids are noted at 102.45-102.35 with stops below there, more stops are touted below 102.00.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jul 2016[/B] [I]02:02GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... Despite staging a minor short-covering recovery after New York close following hawkish comments by some Fed officials (see previous updates for details), the pair tumble ahead of Tokyo open as intra-day selloff in the sterling prompted fresh round of yen-buying by investors on risk aversion. 

The intra-day weakness in the Nikkie (currently down 3% at 15192) suggests market remains in ‘risk off’ mode. Therefore, selling the greenback is recommended.

Offers have been lowered to 101.00/10 and more above, some bids are noted at 100.50-40 and more below with stops touted below 100.00.

Although U.S. will release some eco. data in New York morning, market may pay more attention to Fed minutes for June later in the day at 18:00GMT

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Jul 2016[/B] [I] 04:02GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 100.63.. Dlr pared initial gain after ratcheting from 100.45 (New Zealand) to 100.88 following Sunday's landslide win by the ruling LDP in the upper house election.  

Despite strong performance in the Nikkei (currently up 3.5% at 15642), the pair was unable to make further headway towards the 101.00 level, suggesting price is likely to move inside Friday’s post-NFP range of 100.00-101.28 for rest of the day.

With no key U.S. economic data due out, technical trading and fund flows will have greater influence over intra-day price swings.
For now, offers are tipped at 100.90/00 and more above with stops reported above 101.50.
Initial bids are noted at 100.50-45 and more below with stops building below 100.00.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jul 2016[/B] [I]03:00GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... In total stark contrast to dlr's spectacular rally seen on Monday and Tuesday (this 2-day rise was the biggest dlr's gain since 2014), the pair fell just ahead of Tokyo open.

Intra-day accelerated when Japan’s government spokesman denied “helicopter money” as part of next stimulus measure, dlr later tumbled to as low as 103.95 before stabilising.

Looks like yesterday’s 2-week high print at 104.99 would continue to hold and choppy trading with downside bias is likely as dlr longs established this week will be unwound, therefore, selling the pair on intra-day recovery is favoured.

Offers are tipped at 104.35/45 n more at 104.70.
Initial bids are noted at 104.00-103.90 with some stops touted below 103.70.

Yesterday, Abe’s meeting with former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, a proponent of “helicopter money” policies, also fueled speculation that the government’s stimulus package could be funded by the Bank of Japan’s easing.
Today, The Sankei newspaper reported Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told the premier that now was a good time to embark on the policy, in which money is printed and directly handed to the private sector to stimulate the economy.
While Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that the Bank of Japan would decide monetary policy steps based on market movements and economic environment.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jul 2016[/B] [I]08:02GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ......Reuters reported The Bank of Japan will factor in the government's planned fiscal stimulus package in producing new quarterly projections this month, which will help moderate any cuts to its inflation forecasts, sources familiar with its thinking said. 

The BOJ is usually reluctant to factor in the effect of fiscal stimulus packages unless details, including the actual size of spending, are finalised and announced by the government.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has yet to announce the size of his planned stimulus package and may not finalise the amount before the BOJ’s policy meeting on July 28-29, when the bank conducts a quarterly review of its growth and price forecasts.

But the BOJ will likely take into account the impact from the upcoming package, which analysts say could be worth around 10 trillion yen ($96 billion), and the boost to consumption from a delay in the sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017, the sources said, and the prime minister has made it quite clear there will be a sizable stimulus package aimed at beating deflation, it would be strange not to take into account the effect of such a package in compiling estimates.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Jul 2016[/B] [I]02:15GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... The Japanese yen took centre stage in hectic trading on Monday despite closure of Japanese financial markets for Marine Day holiday. 

Market volatility accelerated near New York close on Friday following breaking news of a military coup in Turkey, causing the pair to tank from around 105.70 to session lows of 104.64.
However, dlr opened higher in New Zealand on Monday following Bloomberg’s report ahead of Asian open of early dovish comments by Japan’s Chief Govt. spokesman Suga (see 00:00GMT update).
Price climbed from 105.07 to as high as 106.02 in Australia before retreating briefly to 105.31 at Asian open.

Dlr’s aforesaid retreat from 106.02 suggests further choppy trading below Friday’s 3-week peak of 106.32 would continue ahead of European open and in the absence of comments by Japanese official, the pair may drift lower.

Offers are tipped at 106.00/30 area from Japanese exporters) with stop above 106.50, however, more stops are touted above pre-Brexit high of 106.84.
Bids are noted are 105.40-30 and more below with some stops below 105.00.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jul 2016[/B] [I]01:05GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 104.35.. Reuters reported Japan's core consumer prices in June suffered the biggest annual decline since the Bank of Japan embarked on its aggressive stimulus drive in 2013, piling pressure on the central bank to expand an already massive stimulus programme. 

Separate data showed household spending fell 2.2 percent, down for a fourth straight month, underscoring the fragile nature of Japan’s economic recovery.
Factory output rose 1.9 percent in June and the jobless rate fell to 3.1 percent, marking the lowest reading in nearly 21 years, with job availability at a nearly 25-year high, reflecting labour shortages, other data showed.

The data comes hours before the Bank of Japan concludes a closely watched two-day rate review ending on Friday, with near-consensus in markets that it will deploy additional stimulus to match the government’s planned big spending package.

The central bank, under pressure from the government, is considering specific steps for expanding monetary stimulus to address signs of weakness in inflation, people familiar with the bank’s thinking said.
The bank has been buying assets like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but already holds around a third of Japan’s market for government bonds (JGBs).

The 0.5 percent fall in the core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was lower than economists’ median estimate for a 0.4 percent annual fall. It fell for fourth straight month, and the decline was the largest since March 2013, just a month before the BOJ deployed the quantitative and qualitative easing programme.
The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 0.4 percent in the year to June.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
03 Aug 2016[/B] [I]01:14GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ...... BOJ's policy board members shared the view that inflation expectations had weakened somewhat in the short term but remained on an upward path in the long term, minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting held on June 15-16 showed on Wednesday.  

The BOJ refrained from offering additional monetary stimulus at the June meeting despite anaemic inflation and weak global growth.
One member of in June repeated a call to reduce government bond purchases while another member said the focus has shifted to interest rates from asset purchases, highlighting doubts about the current policy framework.

At a subsequent meeting on July 29 the BOJ surprised investors by saying it would release a comprehensive review of its quantitative easing in September, reinforcing the view that the BOJ’s current policy framework has reached its limit.

Reuters then reported Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masatsugu Asakawa, said on Wednesday that foreign exchange moves were nervous and that he would watch the market closely.
Asakawa, the vice finance minister for international affairs, made the remarks to reporters at the ministry.

The dollar fell to a three-week low of 100.68 yen on Tuesday after the Japanese government approved a largely expected set of stimulus measures. It was trading around 101.20 yen on Wednesday.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Aug 2016[/B] [I] 01:16GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Despite yesterday’s selloff to 99.54 on broad-based buying of yen, the greenback rallied to 100.53 in New York on hawkish comments from Fed officials.
Dlr found renewed buying at 100.16 in Australia today and rose to 100.68 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225.

Market focus is now on the release of FOMC minutes today at 18:00GMT.
Traders will be looking closely for hints on when policymakers would look to hike interest rates next.

Bids are now seen at 100.20/30 and more below at 100.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 101.20/30, suggesting choppy trading with upside bias would be seen.