[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Sep 2016 [/B] [I]01:03GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Reuters just reported activity in Japan's services sector slipped back into contraction in August as demand remained subdued despite a slight pick-up in new business, a private survey showed on Monday, highlighting the fragility of the economy.
The IHS Market Japan Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dipped to 49.6 in August from 50.4 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction on a monthly basis.
While the decline was marginal, the reading was below the historical average and reflected a sector that was struggling for traction. The index has been darting between modest expansion and contraction since March.
The index for new business rose for the first time in three months to 50.7 from 49.7 in July, marking the sharpest increase since February.
But activity remained sluggish, prompting services firms to cut staffing for the third month in a row, albeit at a more modest pace than in July.
The services sector accounted for 70 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product in 2014.
Sustained weakness would put more pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan, which have struggled to boost the economy and beat nearly two decades of deflationationary trends despite over three years of aggressive monetary policy and fiscal spending.
The composite Japan index for output in both manufacturing and services dipped into contraction, with a reading of 49.8 compared with 50.1 in July. Manufacturing had a 18.7 percent share of the GDP in 2014.
Japan’s government is set to roll out economic stimulus featuring 13.5 trillion yen ($131 billion) in fiscal measures for public works and other spending to spur growth, though the spending will be spread over several years.
A majority of economists also expect the Bank of Japan will ease policy further later this month, a Reuters poll found, despite growing concerns in markets that its massive stimulus programme may be starting to do more harm than good.
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major EUR/USD[/B]
Update Time: [B]08 Sep 2016[/B] [I] 01:21 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1243
Euro’s anticipated marginal gain to 1.1271 yesterday confirms recent erratic fall from 1.1366 (August high) has made a low last week at 1.1123 and consolidation with mild upside is seen ahead of ECB’s monetary policy announcement ECB President Drgahi’s press conference later today.
As long as 1.1200/10 holds, gain to 1.1300/10 is likely but said August’s peak at 1.1366 should cap upside.
Below 1.1200 would confirm aforesaid rise from 1.1123 has ended and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 1.1140/50 later.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Sep 2016[/B] [I]03:09GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares initial decline in Australia on Monday following a brief rise to session high of 103.06 as hawkish comments by Fed's Rosengren just ahead of NY open led to broad-based usd buying, however, mildly dovish comments in an interview with CNBC by Fed's Tarullo triggered long liquidation in the greenback, dlr retreated to 102.54 before trading sideways.
The intra-day decline to 102.31 in Australia caused by broad-based yen buying on risk aversion was attributed to expected broad-based weakness in Asian stocks after Friday’s 2% plus decline in the Dow and S&P 500, Asian equities are in the red (N225 down 1.5%, Shanghai Comp. down 1.6% n HSI down 2.5%). Although dlr has rebounded in Asia, range trading below said Fri’s 103.06 top is expected to continue.
Offers are tipped at 102.70/80 and more above with stops above 103.10.
Some bids are noted at 102.40-30 with stops below 102.20.
Although no U.S. data are due out today, pay attention to speeches by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (non-voting member) at 12:05GMT, then Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (alternate voting member) n last by not least, a final-minute scheduled speech by Fed Lael Brainard (actually all eyes n ears are on her) at 17:00GMT in Chicago.
Brainard is perceived as the most dovish member of the FOMC and market reckons her speech may be intended to send final signal to the market of the Fed’s thinking of rate hike as after today, no Fed officials are allowed to make any public comments 1 week ahead of the 20-21 Sep FOMC meeting.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Sep 2016[/B] [I]02:35GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr rallied in New York afternoon session on media report the BoJ is ready to step up its monetary easing measure at next week's BoJ meeting, price jumped above New York morning high of 102.43 to 102.75.
Despite initial retreat to 102.43 on profit taking just ahead of Tokyo open, renewed broad-based selling in yen sent dlr higher to 103.20 after tripping stops above 102.80 and last week’s top of 103.06.
Having said that, dlr’s intra-day retreat suggests consolidation is in store as price has overshot to the upside even after Reuters confirmed Nikkei business daily reported that the BOJ plans to make its controversial negative interest rate policy the centrepiece of future monetary easing, promising to weigh further cuts as expansions to asset buying near their limits.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Sep 2016[/B] [I]02:14GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr edges higher in subdued Asian morning. Some bargain buying is spotted by Japanese importers as Japanese financial markets reopen after yesterday's holiday, however, this week is an abbreviated week for Japanese traders as coming Thursday is another national day in Japan.
Despite yesterday’s weakness to 101.58 in New York morning, usd’s broad-based rebound in New York afternoon suggests consolidation with upside bias is in store and one can expect a bit of dlr short-covering to take place after decline from last week’s high of 103.36 (Wednesday) to said Monday’s low ahead of the 2-day Fed as well as BoJ monetary policy meeting.
Bids have been raised to 101.80-75 and more below with stops below 101.40, however, more stops are touted below Sep’s bottom at 101.21. Offers are tipped at 102.10/15 and more above with stops reported above 102.50, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sep 2016 [/B] [I]02:18GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 100.85.. Despite Friday's rebound from 100.68 (Europe) to 101.17 in New York afternoon following hawkish comments by Fed's Rosengren, dlr came under selling pressure ahead of Tokyo open on renewed cross-buyng in yen and retreated to 100.71, suggesting near term sideways trading below 101.24 (Friday's Asian high) would continue with downside bias.
Offers are tipped at 101.00/10 and more above with stops reported above 101.30.
A mixture of bids and stops is noted at 100.70-65, however, more buying interest is touted above last week’s 100.10 low with stops reported below 100.00.
Pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data starting with new home sales at 14:00GMT n then Dallas Fed mfg business index at 14:30GMT.
Last but now least, several FOMC members are scheduled to speak later today with Fed’s Kashkari at 13:00GMT, Fed’s Tarullo at 15:45GMT and then Fed’s Kaplan at 17:30GMT.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Sep 2016 [/B] [I]02:11GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... The pair took centre stage in Asia on Thursday. Although price traded narrowly in thin Australian morning after a rebound from New York low of 100.45, dlr jumped ahead of Tokyo morning on broad-based yen-selling as o/n sharp rse of nearly 6% in oil price following a surprise OPEC agreement to cut production boosted risk appetite.
Dlr easily penetrated 100.99 res and rallied to as high as 101.41 in Asia after tripping a series of stops above 101.00 and then 101.30.
Expect price to maintain a firm undertone after intra-day break of 100.99 res (now sup) and bids have been raised to 101.25 and more below with some stops touted below 101.00.
Some offers are tipped at 101.40/50 and more at 101.75/80 with more stops reported above 102.00.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Sep 2016 [/B] [I]02:18GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Just when one thought (ourselves included) to be on 'risk on' mode following dlr's impressive intra-day rally in Asia, Europe and then subsequent gain to session high of 101.84 in New York morning following mildly upbeat U.S. data, the pair tumbled due to broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion following market news some clients (funds) of the embattling Deutsche Bank have pulled extra cash out.
Dlr fell to as low as 100.84 b4 staging a minor recovery to 101.25 in Asia.
Looks like it is risk-off day today as the antipodean currencies fell briefly below o/n New York lows, suggesting dlr/yen would be sold on recovery as yesterday’ sharp fall from 101.84 signals at least the 1st leg of correction from Tuesday’s 1-month trough at 100.09 has ended.
Offers are tipped at 100.25/35 and more above, some bids are noted at 100.95-85 with some stops below there.
However, more buying interest is reported at 100.50-40 n more below with fairly large stops building below the 100.00 mark.
There is still a slew of U.S. data due out later on this final day of the week as well as month as well as Q3 of 2016, starting with personal consumption expenditure, personal spending, personal income, then Chicago PMI and last but not least, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Oct 2016 [/B] [I]02:45GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr repeated Friday's 'jumpy' behaviour in Asian trading on Monday. Despite initial cross-inspired gain to 101.60/61 at Tokyo open due to gain in the Nikkie , profit taking knocked price to 101.21 and all of a sudden, price spiked up to intra-day high of 101.65 before coming off straight away, suggesting this move was possibly linked to a bid order execution.
Despite Friday’s fall from 101.79 (Asia) to 100.75 in Europe, subsequent rebound in New York to 101.44 near Friday’s close n intra-day gain to 101.65 suggests pullback from last week’s 101.84 (Thursday) has ended, so buying dlr on dips is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 101.60/70 and ore above with stops reported at 101.90/00.
Initial bids are noted at 101.10-00 and more below with stops below 100.70.
As dlr did not show much reaction (as usual) to Japan’s tankan report, pay attention to U.S. economic data later today starting with Markit mfg PMI n then construction spending data.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Oct 2016[/B] [I]03:15GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 103.65.. Despite continuing its recent winning streak and touching a fresh 2-month peak of 104.64 shortly after Tokyo open, profit taking then emerged n knocked price lower, intra-day decline accelerated as the Nikkie moved into the black as downbeat China trade data spoofed investors and in turn led to broad-based yen-buying on risk aversion, the pair tumbled to as low as 103.56 before stabilising.
You don’t need to be currency guru to predict recent usd’s upmove has made a temp. top today and this high print will be marked as this week’s top too.
Expect range trading to take place until European open and offers are tipped at 104.00/10 and more above with stops above 104.65.
Some minor bids are noted at 103.60-50 with stops touted below 103.10, suggesting selling the pair on intra-day recovery is favoured.
No major U.S. economic data are due out except the usual weekly jobless claims which gave the buck a lift last week but any corrective bounce should be views as a good selling opportunity for further downward correction to continue later. Market focus will be Fri’s U.S. retail sales but this is tomorrow’s business.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2016[/B] [I]03:13GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - The greenback fell ahead of Tokyo open, price briefly penetrated New York low at 103.80 and staged a minor recovery, however, broad-based usd's weakness in early Asian trading quickly knocked price to intra-day low of 103.68 before rebounding on cross-selling in yen.
The pair came under selling pressure in early New York trading on Mon after downbeat U.S. New York Fed mfg index, price later hit session lows of 103.80 on dovish comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer (see earlier update).
Although intra-day usd’s broad-based weakness in Asia suggests downside bias remains, daily outlook remains consolidative and range trading inside recent range is expected ahead of release of U.S. inflation data at 12:30GMT where Sep m/m CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% vs previous reading of 0.2%, if the actual data comes in higher than forecast, then dlr would be supported.
Offers are tipped at 103.95/00 and more above with stops above 104.50.
Initial bids are noted at 103.65-55 with stops below 103.30
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 2016[/B] [I]03:23GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... The greenback moved narrowly in quiet Asian trading on Monday, however, price has generally maintained a firm undertone followed renewed usd's strength on Friday.
Despite Friday’s intra-day decline from 104.20 to 113.52 (New York), renewed usd’s strength lifted price to 104.00 and current firmness suggest consolidation with upside bias remains.
Bids are noted at 103.75-65 and more below with stops below 103.50, bigger stops are touted below 113.10.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 104.00/20 area with stops abv there, suggesting buying dlr on dips is recommended.
Later in the day, U.S. will release national activity index at 12:30GMT and then the important Markit Oct flash manufacturing index at 13:45GMT, street forecast is looking for a reading to come in at 51.6 vs previous figure of 51.5. Last but not least, pay attention to speeches by Fed’s James Bullard and Fed’s Charles Evans at 13:05GMT and 17:30GMT respectively.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Nov 2016[/B] [I]02:23GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr swung wildly in Mon's trading. Although price initially fell to 104.28 in New Zealand on Monday, cross-selling in yen quickly lifted the pair to 104.94 and the pair ratcheted higher in Europe to 105.08 on broad-based usd's strength, then climbing to session high of 105.23 ahead of New York midday after shrugging off downbeat U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed mfg index.
however, intra-day rally in cable and eur/usd triggered broad-based usd’s retreat and pushed price back down to 104.79 near New York close, dlr edged lower to 104.67 shortly after Tokyo open on Tuesday.
Despite yesterday’s strong bounce to 105.23, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below last Friday’s 3-month peak at 105.53 would continue and range trading is seen ahead of BoJ’s rate decision and then BoJ Gov. Kuroda’s press conference at 06:30GMT.
Until then, offers are tipped at 105.00/10 and more above with stops above 105.30, more stops are touted above 105.55.
Initial bids are noted at 104.70-60 and more below with stops below 104.20, more stops have been reported below 104.00.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Nov 2016[/B] [I]02:07GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr gained the most vs the yen at New Zealand open after FBI issued a formal statement to clear Hilary Clinton on their review over her classified email review boosted risk sentiment, price opened around 103.12 and jumped to 104.45 in Australia, then 104.48 ahead of Asian open.
Price has maintained intra-day gain due to broad-based rise in Asian stocks (N225 currently up by 200 points at 17105).
Looks like consolidation with mild upside bias remains but further strong gain is unlikely as Asian traders are awaiting reaction from their European counterparts reaction when they come in later.
Offers are tipped at 104.40/50 with stops above 104.70/75, more stops are touted above 105.00. Initial bids are noted at 103.90-80 with stops below 103.50.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2016[/B] [I]03:06GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr maintains a firm undertone in Asian trading. Price opened below Friday’s New York high of 110.95 and edged higher to a fresh 5-1/2 month peak of 111.12 in Australia, although the pair retreated to 110.65 on usual yen-buying by Japanese exporters (on hedging to lock in profit), renewed buying emerged and lifted price to 111.00/03 at Tokyo midday.
Despite dlr’s firmness, intra-day usd’s broad-based retreat vs other G7 currencies suggests price is unlikely to yield further strong gain in Europe as risk has increased for a much-needed minor correction to take place, possibly in European morning.
Offers are tipped at 1.1110/20 with some stops above there, more selling is touted below daily res at 111.45.
Bids are noted at 110.706-0 and more below with stops reported below 110.40.
U.S. calendar is pretty light today with Chicago national activity for Oct being the only data due out at 13:30GMT.
Also, no Fed officials are scheduled after last week’s bombardment, so technical trading may prove useful in today’s session.
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Dec 2016 01:23GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr climbed to a fresh 9-month peak of 114.83 just ahead of Tokyo open partly on downbeat Japan's economic data. Reuters reported.
Japanese business expenditure fell in the third quarter, the first annual decline since the start of 2013, in a worrying sign that uncertainty over the economic outlook is eroding companies’ confidence.
The capital spending data, which is used to calculate revised gross domestic product (GDP) due on Dec. 8, underscores concerns about a fragile recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.
A preliminary estimate last month showed the Japanese economy grew at 2.2 percent annualised in the July-September quarter, much faster than expected by economists, as rebounding exports offset weakness in domestic demand.
However, a recent run of soft indicators including exports, factory output and household spending raised doubt about sustainability in the economic growth.
Ministry of Finance data showed today on Capital spending in July-September fell 1.3 percent year-on-year, slowing from a 3.1 percent annual gain in the previous quarter.
It was the first annual decline since January-March 2013, shortly after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe swept to power with a pledge to pull the economy out of stagnation and deflation.
On the quarter, capital expenditure rose 0.4 percent from the previous three months on a seasonally-adjusted basis after excluding software spending, up for the first time in four quarters.
Analysts usually watch the MOF capex data for clues on revised GDP figures, but this time is different, some say.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Dec 2016[/B] [I]02:31GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Although the greenback continued its recent winning streak on Monday and climbed to a fresh 10-month peak of 116.13 in Europe as gain in the Nikkie to a 1-year high plus rising U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year bond yield briefly hit fresh 2-year high of 2.528%) boosted risk appetite, broad-based long liquidation in the usd in New York session as investors took risk off the table ahead of today's 2-day Fed rate meeting sent dlr lower to 114.86 in New York afternoon, price briefly fell to 114.74 after hitting stops below 114.80.
However, renewed buying interest emerged at Asian open and lifted the pair.
Intra-day rebound from 114.74 suggests 1st leg of correction from said yesterday’s high has ended and choppy range trading is in store with mild upside bias but strong gain is not envisaged.
Bids are noted at 115.00 and more at 114.85/75 with stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 115.50/60 and more above with stops above 116.15.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Dec 2016 [/B] [I]02:09GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr surged to a fresh 10-month peak of 117.86 n despite early release of upbeat Japanese data. Reuters reported Japanese manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost a year in December as new orders improved in a sign that domestic demand is gathering strength, a survey showed on Thursday.
The Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 from a final 51.3 in November.
The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the fourth consecutive month and showed activity expanded at the fastest pace since January.
The index for new orders, which measures both domestic and external demand, rose to a preliminary 52.8 from 51.1 in the previous month, also the highest in 11 months.
However, the flash index for new export orders eased slightly to 51.7 from 51.9 in the previous month.
Sentiment among large manufacturers hit a one-year high in December as a weak yen brightened the outlook for exports, the Bank of Japan’s closely-watched tankan business sentiment survey showed on Wednesday.
Companies also maintained upbeat capital expenditure plans in the tankan survey, suggesting the economy will pick up pace next year.
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Dec 2016 02:10GMT
USD/JPY -..... Dlr maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo trading after yesterday's intra-day wild swings. Although price fell steadily in Asia on Monday as standoff between U.S. and China over the seizure of U.S. Navy's underwater drone led to buying of yen on risk aversion.
Price weakened to 116.99 at European open before staging a rebound to 117.56 but only to tumble to one yen lower to 116.56 ahead of New York midday on news of killing of Russian ambassador in Ankara, Turkey.
However, upbeat comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (we did mention this in Monday’s 02:50GMT update) lifted price to 117.39/40.
Dlr climbed from 116.99 to 117.41 in early Asian trading, but lack of follow-through buying has caused price to retreat, suggesting sideways swings are in store as market awaits BoJ’s announcement around 03:00-03:30GMT at the end of its 2-day meeting.
Offers are tipped at 117.40/50 with stops above 117.60, more selling interest is touted at 118.00/10.
Bids are noted at 117.00-116.95 n more below with stops reported below 116.50.
The only eco. data coming out of the U.S. is Redbook retail sales which will be ignored by the market as fund flows are expected to have a direct influence on intra-day price swings as trading volume reduces ahead of upcoming X’mas break.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2016 02:10GMT
USD/JPY - … Dlr went nowhere in lack lustre Thursday’s session and is doing nothing in subdued Asian morning today as Japanese market is closed for Emperor’s Birthday, so traders can go for an early X’mas celebratory lunch.
Despite yesterday’s brief jump to 117.88 after upbeat U.S. GDP revision, intra-day rally in eur/usd swiftly knocked dlr lower to session lows of 117.27 but subsequent broad-based rebound in the usd lifted the pair to 117.69/70 before moving narrowly in thin New York afternoon trading.
Range trading is expected to continue in European morning, however, pay attention to release of U.S. data later in the day which may cause some whippy move in a holiday-thinned New York market, U.S. will release University of Michigan consumer confidence n then new home sales.
Offers are tipped at 11765/70 n more at 117.85/95 with stops above 118.10, however, more sell interest is reported at 118.30/40. Some bids are noted at 117.30-20 n more below with stops below 117.00
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