[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Oct 2016[/B] [I]03:13GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - The greenback fell ahead of Tokyo open, price briefly penetrated New York low at 103.80 and staged a minor recovery, however, broad-based usd's weakness in early Asian trading quickly knocked price to intra-day low of 103.68 before rebounding on cross-selling in yen.
The pair came under selling pressure in early New York trading on Mon after downbeat U.S. New York Fed mfg index, price later hit session lows of 103.80 on dovish comments by Fed Vice Chair Fischer (see earlier update).
Although intra-day usd’s broad-based weakness in Asia suggests downside bias remains, daily outlook remains consolidative and range trading inside recent range is expected ahead of release of U.S. inflation data at 12:30GMT where Sep m/m CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% vs previous reading of 0.2%, if the actual data comes in higher than forecast, then dlr would be supported.
Offers are tipped at 103.95/00 and more above with stops above 104.50.
Initial bids are noted at 103.65-55 with stops below 103.30
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Oct 2016[/B] [I]03:23GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... The greenback moved narrowly in quiet Asian trading on Monday, however, price has generally maintained a firm undertone followed renewed usd's strength on Friday.
Despite Friday’s intra-day decline from 104.20 to 113.52 (New York), renewed usd’s strength lifted price to 104.00 and current firmness suggest consolidation with upside bias remains.
Bids are noted at 103.75-65 and more below with stops below 103.50, bigger stops are touted below 113.10.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 104.00/20 area with stops abv there, suggesting buying dlr on dips is recommended.
Later in the day, U.S. will release national activity index at 12:30GMT and then the important Markit Oct flash manufacturing index at 13:45GMT, street forecast is looking for a reading to come in at 51.6 vs previous figure of 51.5. Last but not least, pay attention to speeches by Fed’s James Bullard and Fed’s Charles Evans at 13:05GMT and 17:30GMT respectively.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Nov 2016[/B] [I]02:23GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr swung wildly in Mon's trading. Although price initially fell to 104.28 in New Zealand on Monday, cross-selling in yen quickly lifted the pair to 104.94 and the pair ratcheted higher in Europe to 105.08 on broad-based usd's strength, then climbing to session high of 105.23 ahead of New York midday after shrugging off downbeat U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed mfg index.
however, intra-day rally in cable and eur/usd triggered broad-based usd’s retreat and pushed price back down to 104.79 near New York close, dlr edged lower to 104.67 shortly after Tokyo open on Tuesday.
Despite yesterday’s strong bounce to 105.23, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below last Friday’s 3-month peak at 105.53 would continue and range trading is seen ahead of BoJ’s rate decision and then BoJ Gov. Kuroda’s press conference at 06:30GMT.
Until then, offers are tipped at 105.00/10 and more above with stops above 105.30, more stops are touted above 105.55.
Initial bids are noted at 104.70-60 and more below with stops below 104.20, more stops have been reported below 104.00.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Nov 2016[/B] [I]02:07GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr gained the most vs the yen at New Zealand open after FBI issued a formal statement to clear Hilary Clinton on their review over her classified email review boosted risk sentiment, price opened around 103.12 and jumped to 104.45 in Australia, then 104.48 ahead of Asian open.
Price has maintained intra-day gain due to broad-based rise in Asian stocks (N225 currently up by 200 points at 17105).
Looks like consolidation with mild upside bias remains but further strong gain is unlikely as Asian traders are awaiting reaction from their European counterparts reaction when they come in later.
Offers are tipped at 104.40/50 with stops above 104.70/75, more stops are touted above 105.00. Initial bids are noted at 103.90-80 with stops below 103.50.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2016[/B] [I]03:06GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr maintains a firm undertone in Asian trading. Price opened below Friday’s New York high of 110.95 and edged higher to a fresh 5-1/2 month peak of 111.12 in Australia, although the pair retreated to 110.65 on usual yen-buying by Japanese exporters (on hedging to lock in profit), renewed buying emerged and lifted price to 111.00/03 at Tokyo midday.
Despite dlr’s firmness, intra-day usd’s broad-based retreat vs other G7 currencies suggests price is unlikely to yield further strong gain in Europe as risk has increased for a much-needed minor correction to take place, possibly in European morning.
Offers are tipped at 1.1110/20 with some stops above there, more selling is touted below daily res at 111.45.
Bids are noted at 110.706-0 and more below with stops reported below 110.40.
U.S. calendar is pretty light today with Chicago national activity for Oct being the only data due out at 13:30GMT.
Also, no Fed officials are scheduled after last week’s bombardment, so technical trading may prove useful in today’s session.
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Dec 2016 01:23GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr climbed to a fresh 9-month peak of 114.83 just ahead of Tokyo open partly on downbeat Japan's economic data. Reuters reported.
Japanese business expenditure fell in the third quarter, the first annual decline since the start of 2013, in a worrying sign that uncertainty over the economic outlook is eroding companies’ confidence.
The capital spending data, which is used to calculate revised gross domestic product (GDP) due on Dec. 8, underscores concerns about a fragile recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.
A preliminary estimate last month showed the Japanese economy grew at 2.2 percent annualised in the July-September quarter, much faster than expected by economists, as rebounding exports offset weakness in domestic demand.
However, a recent run of soft indicators including exports, factory output and household spending raised doubt about sustainability in the economic growth.
Ministry of Finance data showed today on Capital spending in July-September fell 1.3 percent year-on-year, slowing from a 3.1 percent annual gain in the previous quarter.
It was the first annual decline since January-March 2013, shortly after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe swept to power with a pledge to pull the economy out of stagnation and deflation.
On the quarter, capital expenditure rose 0.4 percent from the previous three months on a seasonally-adjusted basis after excluding software spending, up for the first time in four quarters.
Analysts usually watch the MOF capex data for clues on revised GDP figures, but this time is different, some say.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Dec 2016[/B] [I]02:31GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... Although the greenback continued its recent winning streak on Monday and climbed to a fresh 10-month peak of 116.13 in Europe as gain in the Nikkie to a 1-year high plus rising U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year bond yield briefly hit fresh 2-year high of 2.528%) boosted risk appetite, broad-based long liquidation in the usd in New York session as investors took risk off the table ahead of today's 2-day Fed rate meeting sent dlr lower to 114.86 in New York afternoon, price briefly fell to 114.74 after hitting stops below 114.80.
However, renewed buying interest emerged at Asian open and lifted the pair.
Intra-day rebound from 114.74 suggests 1st leg of correction from said yesterday’s high has ended and choppy range trading is in store with mild upside bias but strong gain is not envisaged.
Bids are noted at 115.00 and more at 114.85/75 with stops below there.
Offers are tipped at 115.50/60 and more above with stops above 116.15.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Dec 2016 [/B] [I]02:09GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr surged to a fresh 10-month peak of 117.86 n despite early release of upbeat Japanese data. Reuters reported Japanese manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in almost a year in December as new orders improved in a sign that domestic demand is gathering strength, a survey showed on Thursday.
The Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.9 from a final 51.3 in November.
The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the fourth consecutive month and showed activity expanded at the fastest pace since January.
The index for new orders, which measures both domestic and external demand, rose to a preliminary 52.8 from 51.1 in the previous month, also the highest in 11 months.
However, the flash index for new export orders eased slightly to 51.7 from 51.9 in the previous month.
Sentiment among large manufacturers hit a one-year high in December as a weak yen brightened the outlook for exports, the Bank of Japan’s closely-watched tankan business sentiment survey showed on Wednesday.
Companies also maintained upbeat capital expenditure plans in the tankan survey, suggesting the economy will pick up pace next year.
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Dec 2016 02:10GMT
USD/JPY -..... Dlr maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo trading after yesterday's intra-day wild swings. Although price fell steadily in Asia on Monday as standoff between U.S. and China over the seizure of U.S. Navy's underwater drone led to buying of yen on risk aversion.
Price weakened to 116.99 at European open before staging a rebound to 117.56 but only to tumble to one yen lower to 116.56 ahead of New York midday on news of killing of Russian ambassador in Ankara, Turkey.
However, upbeat comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (we did mention this in Monday’s 02:50GMT update) lifted price to 117.39/40.
Dlr climbed from 116.99 to 117.41 in early Asian trading, but lack of follow-through buying has caused price to retreat, suggesting sideways swings are in store as market awaits BoJ’s announcement around 03:00-03:30GMT at the end of its 2-day meeting.
Offers are tipped at 117.40/50 with stops above 117.60, more selling interest is touted at 118.00/10.
Bids are noted at 117.00-116.95 n more below with stops reported below 116.50.
The only eco. data coming out of the U.S. is Redbook retail sales which will be ignored by the market as fund flows are expected to have a direct influence on intra-day price swings as trading volume reduces ahead of upcoming X’mas break.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2016 02:10GMT
USD/JPY - … Dlr went nowhere in lack lustre Thursday’s session and is doing nothing in subdued Asian morning today as Japanese market is closed for Emperor’s Birthday, so traders can go for an early X’mas celebratory lunch.
Despite yesterday’s brief jump to 117.88 after upbeat U.S. GDP revision, intra-day rally in eur/usd swiftly knocked dlr lower to session lows of 117.27 but subsequent broad-based rebound in the usd lifted the pair to 117.69/70 before moving narrowly in thin New York afternoon trading.
Range trading is expected to continue in European morning, however, pay attention to release of U.S. data later in the day which may cause some whippy move in a holiday-thinned New York market, U.S. will release University of Michigan consumer confidence n then new home sales.
Offers are tipped at 11765/70 n more at 117.85/95 with stops above 118.10, however, more sell interest is reported at 118.30/40. Some bids are noted at 117.30-20 n more below with stops below 117.00
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Dec 2016 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - 117.70.. The pair rose in early Tokyo trading after Asian centres reopened from a long X'mas holiday closure. Despite initial weakness to 117.37, dlr climbed to intra-day high of 117.74 on after tripping some stops above Tuesday's New York top at 117.61 on broad-based yen selling.
Although intra-day gain suggests consolidation with upside bias is in store, as dlr failed to maintain a strong foothold in New York session yesterday after a brief rise to 117.61 following upbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggest we may see price paring today’s gain later in the day, so whilst buying on dips is cautiously favoured, profit should be taken on subsequent upmove.
Bids are noted at 117.50-40 and more below with stops reported below 117.00.
Offers are tipped at 117.85/90 and more above with stops above 118.00, however, more selling interest is reported at 118.20/30.
U.S. economic calendar is pretty light today with Nov pending home sales the only data for traders to chew on.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Dec 2016 03:00GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares initial weakness to a fresh 2-week trough of 116.05 ahead of Asian open as intra-day sharp jump in the eur/usd led to broad-based usd's weakness.
However, lack of follow-through selling below Thursday’s 116.23 low quickly lifted the pair and price moved narrowly sideways in subdued Tokyo trading as many traders have closed their books for the year, suggesting one has to look to Europe for bigger price swings.
If you are still trading, then the only U.S. eco. data to trade on is Dec Chicago PMI, street forecast is 57.6 vs previous reading of 57.6 too.
Bids are noted at 116.20-00 area with some stops below there, offers are tipped at 116.70/80 with stops reported above 117.00.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jan 2017 07:26GMT
USD/JPY - … The pair rallies at European open as a bout of broad-based usd buying sent price to intra-day high of 117.80 following yesterday’s gain to 117.67 in holiday-thinned Monday session.
As mentioned earlier, although dlr fell initially on Friday due to initial sharp jump in eur/usd as investors took risk off the table on the last trading day in 2016, dlr bulls quickly returned at Asian open (Japn’s market is closed for holiday today) and lifted price from 117.22 (AUS) but then moved narrowly under Europe comes in.
Present firmness suggests dlr still has legs to move higher, order book is pretty light but there is market chatter of resting offers by Japanese exporters at 118.00 and above, so dlr needs to climb above 118.00/10 decisively to retain bullishness.
Bids are noted at 117.50-40 and more at 117.30-20.
Today is PMI day n U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and last but not least ISM mfg PMI and these data will surely have a direct influence on intra-day price swings, so watch out.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jan 2017[/B] [I]03:11GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... In stark contrast to recent weakness in Asian morning seen in last few sessions, the greenback opened flat in New Zealand on Monday and then climbed above Friday's 117.18 (post-NFP New York) top in Australia and then to intra-day high of 117.35 in holiday-thinned Asia (Japanese financial markets are closed for Coming of Age holiday) due to renewed cross-selling in yen esp vs usd, eur and aud as Friday's gain to record highs in the Dow boosted risk appetite.
As has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting near term rise from Fri’s 3-week trough at 115.07 would extend marginal gain, as broad outlook remains consolidative, strong rise from current level is not envisaged.
Bids are noted at 117.00-116.90 n move below, offers are tipped at 117.50/60 with some stops above 117.75.
Although there is no U.S. eco. data today following Fri’s key jobs report, do pay attention to speeches by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at 14:00GMT, Atlanta Fed Dennis Lockhart at 17:40GMT n Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at 18:00GMT respectively.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jan 2017 [/B] [I]03:12GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Yesterday's was a classic case that the market does not always get it right.
Although the greenback was very well bid across the board in Europe n New York morning as traders loaded up long usd positions in anticipation that U.S. President-elect Trump will outline his U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the pair climbed from 115.82 to as high as 116.87 in New York.
However, traders dumped the buck when after Trump disappointed the market and resulted in a free fall to session lows of 114.25.
Despite staging a short-covering rebound to 115.63, dlr ratcheted lower in Australia and Tokyo trading today on renewed usd’s weakness, price fell back to 114.62 ahead of Tokyo lunch break.
Dlr’s intra-day weakness due partly to yen’s strength vs eur, gbp and aud etc suggests consolidation with downside bias remains, so selling the pair on recovery is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 115.00/10 and more above with stops above 115.65.
Some bids are noted at 114.60-50 n more below with stops below 114.20.
After Trump news conference, market may go back to basics and pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data as well as speeches by a great number of Fed officials (see 01:30GMT update for details).
U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, export n import prices, all due out at 13:30GMT which are unlikely to have much influence on price but hawkish comments by Fed speakers may have a brief supporting effect.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Jan 2017[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr swung broadly sideways in Asian morning. Despite initial drop to 113.84 shortly after Tokyo open as weakness in the Nikkie to a 4-week low at 18849 (currently at 19454) triggered yen buying.
however, renewed buying above yesterday’s 5-week trough at 113.76 lifted the pair to 114.28, suggesting further choppy trading above said Mon’s low would continue.
Market remains jittery ahead of U.K. PM May’s speech later today around 11:45GMT as she outlines her so-called 12 priority points for upcoming Brexit negotiations of leaving the EU’s single market as well as regaining complete control of Britain’s borders (immigration control).
The yen may gain if market interpret her speech will lead to a ‘hard Brexit’.
For now, offers are tipped at 114.30/40 and more above with stops reported above 114.55. However, more selling interest is touted at 115.00/10.
On the downside, bids are noted at 114.00/113.90 with stops below 113.70.
After PM May’s speech, U.S. will release New York Fed manufacturing index, also New York Fed President William Dudley will speak at an event at 13:45GMT and later at 15:00GMT, Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard speaks on monetary and fiscal policy before the Brookings Institution in Washington.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Jan 2017[/B] [I]05:12GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr pares o/n sharp gain in late New York trading after rallying from 113.58 to as high as 114.75 following Fed Chair Yellen’s comments which were interpreted as being hawkish by the market.
The pair extended o/n gain at Tokyo open as intra-day strg rebound in the Nikkie (N225 rose 1% from Wednesday’s 6-week low of 18650) triggered more broad-based yen selling n pushed price to 114.89 before retreating to 114.44/45 during Tokyo lunch session.
Looks like a temp. top has been made a Asian traders await reaction from European traders after Wednesday’s broad-based usd gain which took place after European close.
Offers are tipped at 114.80/00 area with stops above there.
Bids are noted at 114.40-20 with some stops below 114.00.
Later today, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with the usual weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts and Philly business index.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Jan 2017[/B] [I]02:19GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 112.83.. The greenback finally pared yesterday's steep fall and staged a recovery to 113.14 on buying by Japanese importers on bargain hunting.
Despite intra-day brief but strong bounce to 114.07 in New York morning following Trump’s comments on his broad economic plans (but lacking in details), renewed broad-based usd selling emerged and knocked the buck to 112.75, price later ratcheted lower to session low of 112.70 at the close before hitting a 7-week trough of 112.53 after hitting light stops below last week’s low of 112.57.
However, lack of follow-through selling triggered broad-based short covering n lifted price back up to 113.14.
Expect range trading to continue before dlr continues its recent losing streak, so trading from short side is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 113.10/20 and more above with stops above 114.10.
Bids are noted at 112.60-50 with stops below there.
Pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. eco. data later in the day starting with Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg PMI and existing home sales.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jan 2017[/B] [I] 04:04GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - ..... In total contrast to its intra-day biddish tone in yesterday's Asian morning, dlr pared Tuesday's impressive rally from a 7-week low of 112.53 to 113.89 in New York.
Despite extending o/n gain to 113.99 just ahead of Tokyo open, the pair quickly fell on broad-based yen buying esp. vs eur and aud, price retreated to 113.49. Some traders attributed to intra-day dlr’s weakness on safe-haven buying of yen as U.S. President Trump begins his U.S. economic revival plan by what many see as moving the country to protectionism.
As price is currently trading near the day’s low, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness.
Offers are tipped at 113.80/90 n more above with some stops touted above 114.10.
Some bids are noted at 113.50-40 with stops below there, more stops are reported below Tuesday’s New York low at 112.91.
No major U.S. data are due out with MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price are the data during early New York morning, so technical trading will prevail for rest of the day.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:22GMT[/I]
USD/JPY - 111.79.. The greenback languishes near Asian 9-week low at 111.61 in relatively subdued Tokyo trading on Tuesday.
Despite staging an intra-day bounce from 111.99 to 112.58 on short covering in New York morning, the pair fell in New York afternoon on broad-based yen buying partly on risk aversion as well as further drop in U.S. treasury yields, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. note fell from 2.47% to 2.406% n fell further to 2.384% today.
The lack of a rebound in Asia despite early hawkish comments by Philly Fed President Harker (see 22:37GMT update) suggests as long as previous 122.06 low (now res) holds, downside bias remains for further weakness.
Offers are tipped at 111.85/95 and more above with stops above 122.30.
Initial bids are noted at 111.60-50 with stops below there, however, some buying interest is touted at 111.40-30.