AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jan 2017
07:26GMT

USD/JPY - … The pair rallies at European open as a bout of broad-based usd buying sent price to intra-day high of 117.80 following yesterday’s gain to 117.67 in holiday-thinned Monday session.

As mentioned earlier, although dlr fell initially on Friday due to initial sharp jump in eur/usd as investors took risk off the table on the last trading day in 2016, dlr bulls quickly returned at Asian open (Japn’s market is closed for holiday today) and lifted price from 117.22 (AUS) but then moved narrowly under Europe comes in.

Present firmness suggests dlr still has legs to move higher, order book is pretty light but there is market chatter of resting offers by Japanese exporters at 118.00 and above, so dlr needs to climb above 118.00/10 decisively to retain bullishness.
Bids are noted at 117.50-40 and more at 117.30-20.

Today is PMI day n U.S. will release Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg PMI, construction spending and last but not least ISM mfg PMI and these data will surely have a direct influence on intra-day price swings, so watch out.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jan 2017[/B] [I]03:11GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... In stark contrast to recent weakness in Asian morning seen in last few sessions, the greenback opened flat in New Zealand on Monday and then climbed above Friday's 117.18 (post-NFP New York) top in Australia and then to intra-day high of 117.35 in holiday-thinned Asia (Japanese financial markets are closed for Coming of Age holiday) due to renewed cross-selling in yen esp vs usd, eur and aud as Friday's gain to record highs in the Dow boosted risk appetite. 

As has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting near term rise from Fri’s 3-week trough at 115.07 would extend marginal gain, as broad outlook remains consolidative, strong rise from current level is not envisaged.
Bids are noted at 117.00-116.90 n move below, offers are tipped at 117.50/60 with some stops above 117.75.

Although there is no U.S. eco. data today following Fri’s key jobs report, do pay attention to speeches by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at 14:00GMT, Atlanta Fed Dennis Lockhart at 17:40GMT n Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at 18:00GMT respectively.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jan 2017 [/B] [I]03:12GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ...... Yesterday's was a classic case that the market does not always get it right. 

Although the greenback was very well bid across the board in Europe n New York morning as traders loaded up long usd positions in anticipation that U.S. President-elect Trump will outline his U.S. fiscal stimulus measures, the pair climbed from 115.82 to as high as 116.87 in New York.
However, traders dumped the buck when after Trump disappointed the market and resulted in a free fall to session lows of 114.25.

Despite staging a short-covering rebound to 115.63, dlr ratcheted lower in Australia and Tokyo trading today on renewed usd’s weakness, price fell back to 114.62 ahead of Tokyo lunch break.
Dlr’s intra-day weakness due partly to yen’s strength vs eur, gbp and aud etc suggests consolidation with downside bias remains, so selling the pair on recovery is favoured.

Offers are tipped at 115.00/10 and more above with stops above 115.65.
Some bids are noted at 114.60-50 n more below with stops below 114.20.

After Trump news conference, market may go back to basics and pay attention to release of U.S. eco. data as well as speeches by a great number of Fed officials (see 01:30GMT update for details).
U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, export n import prices, all due out at 13:30GMT which are unlikely to have much influence on price but hawkish comments by Fed speakers may have a brief supporting effect.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Jan 2017[/B] [I]02:09GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr swung broadly sideways in Asian morning. Despite initial drop to 113.84 shortly after Tokyo open as weakness in the Nikkie to a 4-week low at 18849 (currently at 19454) triggered yen buying.

however, renewed buying above yesterday’s 5-week trough at 113.76 lifted the pair to 114.28, suggesting further choppy trading above said Mon’s low would continue.

Market remains jittery ahead of U.K. PM May’s speech later today around 11:45GMT as she outlines her so-called 12 priority points for upcoming Brexit negotiations of leaving the EU’s single market as well as regaining complete control of Britain’s borders (immigration control).

The yen may gain if market interpret her speech will lead to a ‘hard Brexit’.
For now, offers are tipped at 114.30/40 and more above with stops reported above 114.55. However, more selling interest is touted at 115.00/10.
On the downside, bids are noted at 114.00/113.90 with stops below 113.70.

After PM May’s speech, U.S. will release New York Fed manufacturing index, also New York Fed President William Dudley will speak at an event at 13:45GMT and later at 15:00GMT, Fed Board Governor Lael Brainard speaks on monetary and fiscal policy before the Brookings Institution in Washington.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Jan 2017[/B] [I]05:12GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr pares o/n sharp gain in late New York trading after rallying from 113.58 to as high as 114.75 following Fed Chair Yellen’s comments which were interpreted as being hawkish by the market.

The pair extended o/n gain at Tokyo open as intra-day strg rebound in the Nikkie (N225 rose 1% from Wednesday’s 6-week low of 18650) triggered more broad-based yen selling n pushed price to 114.89 before retreating to 114.44/45 during Tokyo lunch session.

Looks like a temp. top has been made a Asian traders await reaction from European traders after Wednesday’s broad-based usd gain which took place after European close.
Offers are tipped at 114.80/00 area with stops above there.
Bids are noted at 114.40-20 with some stops below 114.00.

Later today, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with the usual weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts and Philly business index.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Jan 2017[/B] [I]02:19GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 112.83.. The greenback finally pared yesterday's steep fall and staged a recovery to 113.14 on buying by Japanese importers on bargain hunting. 

Despite intra-day brief but strong bounce to 114.07 in New York morning following Trump’s comments on his broad economic plans (but lacking in details), renewed broad-based usd selling emerged and knocked the buck to 112.75, price later ratcheted lower to session low of 112.70 at the close before hitting a 7-week trough of 112.53 after hitting light stops below last week’s low of 112.57.
However, lack of follow-through selling triggered broad-based short covering n lifted price back up to 113.14.

Expect range trading to continue before dlr continues its recent losing streak, so trading from short side is favoured.
Offers are tipped at 113.10/20 and more above with stops above 114.10.
Bids are noted at 112.60-50 with stops below there.

Pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. eco. data later in the day starting with Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg PMI and existing home sales.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jan 2017[/B] [I] 04:04GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... In total contrast to its intra-day biddish tone in yesterday's Asian morning, dlr pared Tuesday's impressive rally from a 7-week low of 112.53 to 113.89 in New York. 

Despite extending o/n gain to 113.99 just ahead of Tokyo open, the pair quickly fell on broad-based yen buying esp. vs eur and aud, price retreated to 113.49. Some traders attributed to intra-day dlr’s weakness on safe-haven buying of yen as U.S. President Trump begins his U.S. economic revival plan by what many see as moving the country to protectionism.

As price is currently trading near the day’s low, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness.
Offers are tipped at 113.80/90 n more above with some stops touted above 114.10.
Some bids are noted at 113.50-40 with stops below there, more stops are reported below Tuesday’s New York low at 112.91.

No major U.S. data are due out with MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price are the data during early New York morning, so technical trading will prevail for rest of the day.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:22GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 111.79.. The greenback languishes near Asian 9-week low at 111.61 in relatively subdued Tokyo trading on Tuesday. 

Despite staging an intra-day bounce from 111.99 to 112.58 on short covering in New York morning, the pair fell in New York afternoon on broad-based yen buying partly on risk aversion as well as further drop in U.S. treasury yields, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. note fell from 2.47% to 2.406% n fell further to 2.384% today.

The lack of a rebound in Asia despite early hawkish comments by Philly Fed President Harker (see 22:37GMT update) suggests as long as previous 122.06 low (now res) holds, downside bias remains for further weakness.
Offers are tipped at 111.85/95 and more above with stops above 122.30.
Initial bids are noted at 111.60-50 with stops below there, however, some buying interest is touted at 111.40-30.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:19GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... Although the pair remained under pressure in NY morning trading yesterday on broad-based USD weakness and also yen buying due to continued decline in U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year yields fell from 2.40% to 2.33%) as political uncertainty prompted investor to be active buyers in U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven assets, a late rebound in the greenback lifted price to 112.22. 

Despite dlr’s initial weakness to 11.75 in Australia, buying by Japanese importers lifted price in Tokyo trading, dlr climbed back to 112.34, suggesting the daily price swings seen in last 2 sessions above 111.60 would continue.
Having said that, reported offers at 112.50/55 are likely to cap intra-day gain and dlr may well fall back down again in European trading.
Bids are noted at 112.00 and more at 11.80-75 with stops touted below 111.60.
A mixture of offers and stops is reported at 112.55/60.

U.S. eco. calendar is fairly thin with the usual weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories being the 2 sets of data due out later in the day.
Do pay attention to speeches by St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) at 14:10GMT n then Chicago Fed President Evans (voter) at 18:10GMT.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:39GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 113.70.. The greenback stands tall in active Asian trading on Fri following yesterday's rally in New York morning after Trump's said a 'phenomenal' tax plan will be announced in a few weeks, his comments revived last year's Trump-election win euphoria and sent dlr flying to 113.34.  

Renewed buying ahead of Tokyo open easily pushed price above said o/n high and intra-day rally in the Nikkie (up by as much as 2.5% following gains in the U.S. stocks to record highs) boosted risk sentiment and triggered broad-based yen selling.
To add fuel to intra-day dlr rally, purchase of more long-dated JGBs by BoJ sent dlr to fresh 1-week high of 113.80.

What a difference a day made, dlr was under pressure 24 hours ago and yesterday’s Trump’s comments and his meeting with Japan’s PM Abe today followed by a golf match on Saturday has boosted market optimism, so buying dlr on dips is the way to go.
Bids are noted at 113.50-40 n more below with stops below 113.00.
Offers are tipped above 114.80/90 with stops above 115.00.

Pay attention to U.S. data later today starting with export and import price index and Uni. of Michigan consumer confidence.
Data to be released today:

Japan CGPI, China exports, imports, trade balance, France industrial production, Italy industrial output, UK construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, Canada employment, U.S. export price, import price and consumer sentiment.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:17GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... The pair rallied shortly after Mon open in New Zealand as Sunday's missile test by N.Korea stirred up another geo-political unrest on the Korean peninsular (see Sunday's updates).

However, the Nikkie is largely unaffected by this and is currently up buy 0.5% at 19479.
Traders quickly sold the yen broadly and sent price higher above Friday’s 113.86 ahead of Tokyo open, dlr climbed to 114.17 after tripping stops above 114.00 before easing.

Intra-day pullback from 114.17 suggests consolidation is in store and dlr is likely to in demand on dips as market awaits more reaction when European traders step in, so trading the pair from long side is favoured.
Bids are noted at 113.85-75 and more above with stops below 113.20.
Some offers are tipped at 114.20/30 with stops above 114.30/40.

As no U.S. data is due out today, order flows will have great influence on intra-day price swings.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:12GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr edges higher in Tokyo morning after y’esteray’s intra-day wild swings following intra-day retreat from 114.17 (Asia) to 113.45. Despite U.S. stocks climbing to record highs n continued rise U.S. Treasury yields, the pair was kept range bound in directionless New York session.

Having said that, as renewed buying interest above 113.45 emerged in Asia has lifted price, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is in store.
Bids are noted at 113.55-45 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 113.05/00.
Offers are tipped at 113.80/90 n more above with stops above 114.20.

Pay attention release of key U.S. eco. data starting with PPI n then Redbook retail sales. Several Fed officials will be speaking later in the day but market is paying close attention to Fed Yellen’s semi-annual testimony b4 the Congress at 15:00GMT. Traders will listen to her (Fed) outlook on the central banks’ monetary policy n the economy. So if her outlook is mildly hawkish, the USD will rally.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:02GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ...... The pair traded broadly sideways in Asia after Friday's cross-inspired decline to a 1-week low of 112.62 shortly after New York open, however, broad-based USD rebound lifted price to 112.97. 

Dlr briefly climbed to 113.00 ahead of Tokyo open on bargain hunting by Japanese names, however, as yen remains bid vs eur, gbp and aud in Asia due partly to falling U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year dropped from 2.5238% last Wednesday to 2.4004% on Friday), suggesting choppy trading with downside bias remains.

Offers are tipped at 113.00/10 with stops above there, more selling interest is reported at 113.40/50.
Initial bids are noted at 112.80-70 with stops below 112.60.

No U.S. data is due out as U.S. markets are closed for Presidents’ Day holiday,.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Feb 2017[/B] [I]03:00GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Despite moving narrowly in holiday-thinned N. American session, the pair climbed ahead of Tokyo open, intra-day gain accelerated due to broad-based USD strength, price rallied to 113.57 after tripping stops above 113.25, then 113.50, suggesting upside bias remains for further headway to 114.00/05, so buying dlr on dips is the way to go.

Bids are noted above 113.40-30 and more below, offers are tipped at 113.80/90 with stops above 114.00.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with Redbook retail sales, Markit mfg n services PMIs.
A number of Fed officials will be speaking with Minneappolis Fed’s Kashkari at 13:50GMT, Philly Fed’s Harker at 17:00GMT n then San Francisco Fed’s Williams at 20:30GMT.

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2017
02:12GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr moves broadly sideways in Tokyo trading after yesterday's rally from 113.09 (AUS) to 113.78 in New York morning due to broad-based USD strength and although price retreated to 113.41 after soft U.S. mfg and services PMIs, renewed buying quickly lifted price, dlr later climbed back to 113.73 in Australia on Wednesday.

However, despite mildly hawkish comments by Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-voter) in an interview with CNBC and Bloomberg TV this morning, price fell in Asian morning due to cross-buying in yen esp vs eur, suggesting further sideways swings below said Tuesday’s high would continue.

Bids are noted at 113.45-40 and more below with stops below 113.20.
Offers are tipped at 113.70/80 with stops above there, more stops are touted above 114.00.

Market focus today is release of last Fed minutes at 19:00GMT (where most most of traders will not be round), however, pay attention to U.S. eco. data later in the day where Redbook retail sales will be released at 13:55GMT and then existing home sales at 15:00GMT. Fed Gov. Jerome Powell will speak at 18:00GMT.

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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Mar 2017[/B] [I] 03:03GMT
[/I]
USD/JPY - … Dlr remains under pressure in Asian trading on Monday as early breaking news that North Korea had launched missiles into the Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone lifted geo-political tension and then triggered broad-based yen buying on risk aversion.
Price fell from intra-day high of 114.14 (AUS) to 113.72 after Japan’s officials lodged protest to the missile firing.

The fact dlr had fallen broadly in post-Yellen’s New York session Friday due to active liquidation of long USD positions on profit taking suggests consolidation with downside bias is in store and intra-day weakness in the Nikkie (currently at 19372, down 97 points) pullback in U.S. Treasury yields (the benchmark 10-year retreated from Friday’s high of 2.521% to a low of 2.467% today) should pressure the greenback in Tokyo trading.

Offers are tipped at 114.05/15 and more above with stops above 114.60.
Bids are noted at 113.75-65 and below with some stops below 113.45.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with factory orders being the only data due out at 15:00GMT. However, later in the day, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (voter) will speak on “A View From the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis” at the National Association for Business Economics 2017 policy conference at 20:00GMT.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Mar 2017[/B] [I]03:10GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... The pair slipped to 113.75 in Asian trading on intra-day renewed cross-buying in yen as lack of follow-through buying following Tuesday's gain to 114.15 in New York morning triggered some liquidation in long USD position. 

Looks like sideways range trading in in store in Asia as market is in wait-n-see mode ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
Having said that, rise in U.S. Treasury yields in last few days (benchmark 10-yer yield is currently at 2.5124%, now far from February’s high at 2.5240%) suggests dlr would be supported on dips, so buying on further decline is still recommended.
Offers are tipped at 113.95/05 and more above with stops above 114.20.
Bids are noted at 113.75-70 and more below with stops below 113.50.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. dat, starting with mortgage applications followed by important ADP private employment (forecast for Feb is 180K gain vs previous reading of 246K), then labor costs, productivity, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK[/B]
Update Time: [B]09 Mar 2017[/B] [I] 09:05 GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - 114.59
Dollar’s sideways trading after Wednesday’s re-test of last Friday’s high at 114.75 on release of upbeat U.S. ADP employment report suggests consolidation with upside bias remains and gain towards February’s peak at 114.96 would be seen after minor consolidation, break there would extend marginally but loss of momentum would keep price below 115.38 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 113.56 would abort daily bullish outlook on the greekback and risk stronger retracement of recent rise from 111.70 towards 112.83.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2017[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr stands head and shoulders above its major peer currencies in Friday's Tokyo morning and hit a fresh 6-week high of 115.26 after penetrating yesterday's 115.00 (New York). 

Despite moving narrowly but with a firm undertone in Australia, buying emerged at 114.88 sent price swiftly higher, the pair then rallied to 115.26 after tripping stops above 115.00/05.
Traders cited continued rise in U.S. yields in Asia was the main driver, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a neat 3-month high of 2.624% vs Thursday’s high of 2.609%.
In addition, intra-day gain in the Nikkie (currently at 19550 and up 1.2%) is boosting risk sentiment, leading to broad-based selling in the yen vs usd, eur, gbp, aud and nzd etc.

With plenty of positive fundamentals supporting the greenback, price can only head North, right. If U.S. jobs report n average wage growth come in as per street forecast or well above in the former (after Wednesday’s monster gain in private payrolls), then this week’s ascent may accelerate.
Bids are noted at 115.00-114.80 area with some stops below 114.50.
Offers are tipped at 115.35/45 with stops above 115.60.

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Mar 2017[/B] [I]02:27GMT[/I]

USD/JPY - ..... The pair moved sideways in subdued Tokyo trading on Monday after tumbling from Friday's 7-week high of 115.51 to 114.66 due to broad-based usd decline in post-NFP trading as well as strg retreat in the U.S. Treasury yields (benchmark 10-year yield hit a near 3-week peak of 2.624% b4 pullback back to 2.575%, currently at 2.585%). 

Although price dipped marginally lower below said Friday’s 114.66 low to 114.64 at New Zealand open, lack of follow-through selling lifted dlr n the pair then edged higher following release of downbeat Japan’s machinery orders.
Looks like sideways move would continue in Asia and intra-day broad-based usd’s softness suggests selling the pair on recovery is recommended for another corrective fall later in the day.
Offers are tipped at 115.00/10 and more above with stops above 114.40.
Initial bids are noted at 114.70-90 with stops below 114.50.

No U.S. eco. data is due out n N. America has pushed their clocks forward by one hour on Sunday, so European traders have a shorter lunch break in next 2 weeks if they follow or trade on U.S. data.